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Everything posted by strawbossisevil
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Pitching prospects and their potential
strawbossisevil replied to paul253's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'm a bit higher on Scarpetta than you Paul. I think his ceiling could be a 2/3 if everything falls together for him. -
Derrick Lee, Magglio Ordoñez, and Carlos Peña come to mind as potential FA options to fill 1B/RF (with Gamel filling in the other position). Maggs might be able to be had on a 1 or 2 year deal (as he will be 37). Lee on a 2 year deal (35).
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The problems with the Brewers farm system is that they lack numbers of top prospect impact bats at the lower levels, and high impact SP arms at the top levels. They have a number of solid hitters at the top (bklyn, a catcher that has an OPS of over 1.000 in AA, is not something to sneeze at as a top prospect) in Lucroy, Gamel and Lawrie. All three should develop into above average MLB bats for their respective positions. On the pitching side, most who look at our pitching ignore Rogers and Jeffress when evaluating our system. While I understand why they do that, I think that is a mistake. Rogers is throwing in the upper 90s as a SP. His control isn't the greatest at the moment but we have to remember that he is coming back from an injury so his control should improve with time, his ceiling is very high if he is capable of harnessing the strike zone a bit as he gets more reps. Jeffress, as TooLive, pointed out is penalized as a prospect because of his off field issues and control problems, but once again, he can throw up to 100mph as a starting pitcher. If he can tweek his control and throw more strikes, his ceiling is as high as any pitching prospect in baseball. Beyond those two, the real strength of our pitching prospects is found in A ball. There is a lot of talent at those levels, including a few high ceiling arms that haven't as yet put things together and therefore haven't been included in my list above (Fredrickson etc.). And in response to FV, part of what that wave of pitching (RP first, and then SP), and the wave of bats (Lucroy, Gamel, Lawrie, Cain) does for us is it frees up a lot of money. Yeah, if we stood pat and added nothing/no one else, we would probably be one of those teams fighting for a wildcard. But with the wave of pitching and hitting coming at about the same time, we should have money to make an upgrade somewhere. As much as this is probably a dream scenario, if we trade Fielder (and have close to 40M available for signings), we could have the money to sign a big time pitcher like Cliff Lee. Adding Cliff Lee to that list of pitchers would sure make this team's potential pitching staff look very good in 2011 and forward (although he'll be 32 already this offseason).
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Giving some thought as to where our team is heading financially, especially if we trade Fielder. Looking at where we are financially for a 2011 roster (w/o Fielder, no FA signed, and dropping Hart and Gerut - both of whom I don't think will be back in Milwaukee next year). I'm not saying this roster is at all likely to happen (especially in regards to the starting rotation and RF), but it shows how much financial flexibility the Brewers have going into next season if Fielder is traded. (Answer, an awful lot). C: Kotteras .4MC: Lucroy . 4M1B: Gamel .4M2B: Weeks 5M (estimated)SS: Escobar .4M3B: McGehee .4MMI: Inglett .4MIF: Heether .4MLF: Braun 4MCF: Gomez 2.5M (estimated)RF: Cain .4MOF: Stern .4MOF: Katin .4M SP1: Gallardo 3.25MSP2: Wolf 9.5MSP3: Parra 1.5 M (estimated)SP4: Naverson .4MSP5: Butler .4M CL: Braddock .4MSU: Hawkins 4 MSU: Coffey 4M (estimated) (I would prefer that we trade him seeing as how he's entering his final year of arby)RP: Axford .4MRP: Smith .4MRP: Villanueva 1.5M (estimated)RP: Stetter 1M (estimated) Total Cost: 42.25 MCost of Team this Year: 81 MMoney available for long term contracts/FA: around 40 M
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I think there is a bright side at the end of this tunnel. I think the Brewers will trade Fielder, especially if they keep scuffling. It's possible that he might be gone by the Trade Deadline for a bunch of very good prospects (including, I hope, a top level pitching prospect). I would also look to move Coffey (who has only one year of salary arby left), Counsell, Edmonds, Gerut, Hart (if we can find any takers), and Zaun. None of those players have a place with this team in their next window (which I think starts in 2012, so we might as well move them for pieces that will help us in that window). With the salaries of Suppan, Davis, Hall, Hart, Fielder (if traded) all coming off of the books, the Brewers can focus on locking down players such as Weeks (and potentially McGehee and Escobar) long term. I tend to be optimistic when it comes to pitching prospects, but we have a lot to be excited about in the next few years when it comes to pitching, add another top of the rotation prospect or two in the mix from a Fielder trade and suddenly we are looking like we are in very good shape. We are looking at receiving a huge influx of starting pitching arriving in 2011/2012 and solid bullpen arms arriving even sooner. AAA:Braddock - Arrival time, 2010. Aside from his May 9th outing he's been un-hittable. He'll replace Hoffman and be 7 million dollars cheaper.Axford - Arrival time, 2010. He's a very good middle relief type. Could theoretically fill the Todd Coffey role if we go ahead and trade him.Smith - Arrival time, 2010. Another very good relief type, could be an 8th inning guy. Butler - Arrival time, 2010/11. A bottom of the rotation starter that could provide solid innings on the cheap. AA:Rogers - Arrival time, 2011. He's been wild so far, but the stuff is there, and I think we'll see improvement. Assuming health, at worst he's a great bullpen arm, at best he's a #2 starter. Jeffress - Arrival time, 2012. He's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation ace. He just needs to stay on the field. At worst he's a late inning reliever, at best a #1/2 starter.Rivas - Arrival time, 2012. He's looking more like a guy who could fill a middle of the rotation 3/4 slot on the cheap. A:Scarpetta - Arrival time, 2012. He's got some nasty stuff and projects to be a #2 starter. Peralta - Arrival time, 2012. Middle of the rotation starter. Low A:Odorizzi - Arrival time, 2012/2013. Projects to be a top of the rotation starter. Arrival time could depend on how fast Brewers push him.Arnett - Arrival time, 2012/2013. Projects to be a middle of the rotation starter. Arrival time could depend on how fast Brewers push him. On the offensive side, while we aren't nearly as stacked as some years, we do have a flood of solid offensive prospects in the upper minors and a lot of flexibility as far as positioning with a number of them, and it's possible that in the trades highlighted above that we can add additional prospects to this list (these are the players who will likely make their appearance heading into the next window): AAA:Lucroy - Arrival time, 2010. (Although he hasn't exactly hit in AAA to this point)Salome - Arrival time, 2011?. (If I had to guess)Gamel - Arrival time, 2010 (possibly filling in the hole in either RF or 1B if Fielder is traded)Katin - Arrival time, 2010/2011 (could take over the role of 5th OF and late inning power bat, has really improved OBP skills this season)Farris - Arrival time, 2011/2012 (has held his own at AAA, potential backup MIF/trade chip) AA:Cain - Arrival time, 2011 - (Makes Gomez expendable or could move into RF if Gamel is 1B)Gindl - Arrival time, 2011 - (4th OF type)Lawrie - Arrival time, 2011/12 - (Could play 1B, 2B, or RF, depending on where the Brewers needs lie)Green - Arrival time, 2012 - (Another 2b/3b prospect) Heading into the next window, the only position that concerns me where I feel like we won't be able to have supplied a solid internal option is 1B (as long as we sign Weeks long-term). C: Kottaras, Lucroy, and Salome1b: Gamel or Lawrie (will either hit enough to fill this role remains to be seen)2b:Weeks (if we sign him long-term), Lawrie (if we don't), Farris (remains an option but I'm not sure he'll hit enough)SS: Escobar3B: McGehee, Gamel, GreenLF: BraunCF: Gomez or CainRF: Lawrie or Gamel By 2012 our rotation could potentially include 5 of the following pitchers (there is a lot of potential in #3-9 on the list to be above average, but we only need 3 of them to reach their potential in order to have a great rotation that year): 1) Gallardo (will be in there barring injury)2) Wolf (will be in there barring injury)3) Top Prospect Pitcher from Fielder Trade4) Rogers5) Jeffress6) Scarpetta7) Rivas8) Peralta9) Parra10) Butler 11) Naverson
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Agreed Brains and Braun. Let's put it this way. What if your (the Crew07) boss offered to double your salary? Would you not take the raise? I really have a hard time believing you or anyone else wouldn't. Now, let's add in the fact that for many years you were being paid well below what you were worth to the company, and you were just coming off receiving an "employee of the month" award. In principle, you might say you wouldn't have taken the money Suppan was offered (and how easy to SAY you wouldn't accept it when you don't actually have the choice of passing on 40 million dollars), but I have to believe that actually being offered that kind of money one would start to think about the fact that your family would be taken care of for the rest of their lives. And perhaps Suppan honestly believed that he would be able to remain being a guy who could put up an ERA in the low to mid 4s throughout his contract. During that market, pitchers that could pitch in the low to mid 4s were considered worth that type of contract. I have yet to hear of any MLB player who has turned down a deal because a team was offering him too much money. It's unheard of (and I doubt the players union would be happy about a player doing that). The signing wasn't considered outlandish at the time, because the market was at it's peak and anyone capable of pitching "average" innings was getting just as much. As far as assigning fault, RockCo. Can you ask anything of a player other than that he try his best? Can you really truly blame a player if he is incapable of playing better than his best efforts? I feel the same way about Hammonds. The guy had a big year in Colorado (Coors Field) of all places and he was given a contract, but his best simply was not talented enough to live up to the expectations that came along with his contract. Am I going to be mad at Hammonds that he suddenly didn't become a perennial all star because he was offered a contract of one? Heck no, the guy gave his best effort. I was more upset at the stupid people in management that gave him a big contract despite all the warning signs that he likely didn't have the ability to live up to what they were giving him. And I'm willing to bet that that is where most of the angst and the booing was centered on with Hammonds. Not at the player himself (what more could he do?) but at the organization that offered him the ridiculous contract. I'd say the same holds true for Hall, who was given a big check after his 35 HR season. A fluke season that no where near reflected his true ability level. Although I will note that some of the hatred of Hall came because he loved to watch his hits instead of hustling. It earned him a few benchings and legitimate fan negativity. It's situations like that where, yes, a player does deserve to hear from the crowd. Now, Helms may be a bit of a different situation. There was a reason Helms earned the nickname "Krispy Kreme". The guy put on quite a bit of weight after signing his contract, and I believe that extra weight negatively affected his play. In a situation like that, where there is reason to believe that a player hasn't taken care of himself as well as he should and done his best to live up to his contract, then yes there may be reason for a bit of a beef with the player himself. With most of these cases though, as long as a player gives his best effort, I don't know what the fan can legitimately complain about in regards to the player himself. Am I going to blame Suppan that he can't put up an ERA this year in the low 4s? That would be completely ridiculous of me, as it is very clear the guy doesn't have the natural talent anymore to pull that off. Yet some on here want to set up that unrealistic expectation, hating Suppan despite the fact that his absolute best effort would never be able to match their unrealistic expectations. The problem, and the source of our frustrations in nearly all of these cases, ought not be directed at the players themselves, but at the management that A) Gave them the money in the first place and B) Continue to give them playing time when they aren't cutting it. From the players, I think all the fans can ask for is that they give their best effort, and as long as they do so, there should be no reason to express hatred toward them. Everyone here wants Suppan off the team and hates the fact that he's on the team. But there is a HUGE logical disconnect between A) hating the fact that management is allowing him to remain on the team and B) directing that hate in the direction of a player who is giving his best effort. A) is perfectly logical. B) is completely illogical.
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RockCoCougars, I don't get how you can say he is "stealing" 40 million from the Brewers. One could possibly state that if he wasn't putting forth full effort into his pitching, but I have yet to hear any account of him being lazy or unprepared. The fault of the contract doesn't lie with Suppan, he took the biggest deal offered to him just like any other MLB player would do. Heck, putting myself into his situation, if the Brewers came up to me and offered me 40 million to pitch for them over the next four years, there is no way I'd turn that deal down. Even though my fastball tops out in the low 80s. If that is what they are offering me, there is no reason for me to turn that money down. Why should we view Suppan, the person, any differently? Would you honestly say that you would turn down that type of money if it was offered to you? Nope, the problem in this situation is with the people who gave him the money, and I personally believe both Melvin and Mark A had a part to play in that mistake based on what I've read about the situation. I also don't think you have much of a leg to stand on when it comes to the charity aspect. He is one of the most charitable men in his sport. And let's remember that there is nothing forcing him to give up the hundreds of thousands of dollars, he does that of his own free will. If you boo, don't boo the man, he's doing the best he can with what remains of his right arm. If you boo, boo the idiots that keep running him out there every 5 days, they are the real people that ought to hear our displeasure.
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I agree the Brewers should make Weeks their priority. Sign him to a 4 year contract and lock him down for his prime years. 4 years, 24 million sounds like a good deal for both sides. As for Fielder, his defense is always going to negate some of his offensive value. If we aren't in the playoff picture at the trade deadline, I think we should move him and get some major prospects back. While his offense will be hard to replace, his overall value will be less hard. In fact, if the Brewers move Fielder, I'd be a big fan in the Brewers signing Derrick Lee as his replacement. Lee is a top level defensive player which would improve our entire infield defense. On offense he provides solid pop and good OBP skills. Plus, he should be available on a cheaper/shorter more reasonable deal than Fielder as next season is his age 35 season. He likely could be had on a 2-3 year deal.
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MLB2K10 For PC for $2.99 today from Gamestop (4/5/2010)
strawbossisevil replied to endaround's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Buyer beware. The website hosting the Digital Download is having problems processing credit cards. People all over the internet are complaining about the fact that it is putting up an error message for the credit card, and still charging the card. In some cases multiple times. I have tried a number of my credit cards, both without success (error messages) multiple times. Hopefully I won't be charged for it like the other people are being charged. -
So, let's say Doug Melvin came up and offered you $10 Million dollars to pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers. Would you take the money? (I would.) Is it your fault that you don't have the talent to live up to that contract? Suppan was a #4 starter on the wrong side of his prime when we signed him, somehow expecting him to have the talent to put up the numbers of a #2 isn't fair. Now, if you could prove that he hasn't put forth any effort toward pitching his best, you might have an argument. But a guy can't be magically expected to become a better player just because he's getting the money that a better player would get. That's nonsense. Jeff Suppan was a bad investment, we threw #2 pitcher money at a middle to bottom of the rotation starter. Throwing money at him won't change who he is as a player, nor should it be expected to do so. I don't put all of the fault on Melvin's shoulders with Suppan, however. I think our owner played a very significant role in trying to bring Soup in. Hopefully both he and Melvin have learned their lessons about signing middle to bottom of the rotation talent to long term contracts.
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Don't forget Disney Boardwalk either. It's a neat place to watch street performers. And best of all it is free. Plus you can get to Epcot or Hollywood Studios via a free boat ride, which is pretty fun. I currently am living here in Orlando, and I think you are making the right decision coming in February instead of March. You wouldn't get on any rides in March, it's just packed to the point that some days they even close the parks. One thing to keep in mind too, is to plan ahead the order you want to go on the rides. Many of the Disney rides include an option where you can pick up something called a "Fast Pass" which allows you to wait in a much shorter line. You can only have one Fast Pass at a time, so usually the first thing I do when I get in a park is grab a fast pass for my second favorite ride and then get in line at my favorite ride. If you make use of the Fast Pass, you will spend a lot less time waiting in line. If your daughter likes animals, then going to Animal Kingdom and Seaworld are a must, there are also a number of places where people can see live gators, which can be fun. In February, also, that's the time when you can go see the Manatees as they move up stream during the winter. So lots of fun animal options near Orlando besides just going to Disney.
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I think it would be fascinating if someone came up with a college basketball version of fan-graphs. Where you could monitor how NCAA teams typically fare when they fall behind 10-0. I don't know if it would be at all possible to create, but it would be absolutely fascinating.
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3 ring binder as a macbook and beer holding sweatshirts
strawbossisevil replied to narbo's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Wow, I just wasted far too much time looking at that prank. It was beautiful though! -
Never smoked a cigarette (and never will, due to my asthma) Never spent the night in the hospital (aside from the night after my birth) Never seen a full episode of Lost Never been drunk Never used Napster Never played the Lottery Never have had sex (and don't plan to until marriage)
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What's stopping the Brewers from sending Suppan down to the minors? All everyone here talks about is dumping him, why not at least send him to AAA so that when a rash of injuries happens he could step in? Yes, he'd be a very expensive AAA starter, but the money is already spent, so we might as well keep him around just in case a rash of injuries hits the rotation.
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Maybe use some Duct Tape? I know I've done that on occasion in the past when I've needed a number on the back of my shirt.
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An interesting story about how Ohno is perceived in South Korea. http://www.foxnews.com/sp...led-athlete-south-korea/
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Haudricourt Blog - Suppan won't change routine
strawbossisevil replied to Milltownhooker's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think this misrepresents what Suppan is saying. All he is saying that he is approaching the season as if he´ll be in the starting rotation. -
Top five prospects you want to succeed in 2010
strawbossisevil replied to paul253's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
1. Jeffress (plain and simple, if he can turn his life around and dedicate himself to pitching, he could be a top of the rotation star) 2. Rogers (A good year of Rogers, and we could be talking about another top of the rotation guy, possibly even a cup of coffee, after all he's been through, he deserves as much) 3. Arnett (I hope he develops quickly and moves up quickly, and shows that he can step in and be a top caliber pitcher) 4. Scarpetta (If he can harness his huge potential, he's going to be awesome) 5. Braddock (Stay healthy and build stamina young man, because there is a spot for you near the top of the rotation if you do) If all of these players are able to come near their potential this year, the Brewers are going to be in amazing shape pitching wise going forward. Here's to hoping they all can figure it out this year.

