strawbossisevil

Once again that xFIP includes his horrible numbers from 2008 which were seriously impacted by his oblique injury. So if it shows him at 4.50 with that included, his true talent is likely 20-30 points better (at least). When an injury effects one's numbers to such a large extent, one has to factor that in to the projections.

So I'm supposed to go back and look back two years ago and that is supposed to be a better indication as to how the offenses are going to be in the Central next year? That makes no sense. Teams change quite a bit from year to year, to the point that looking past one year would be completely worthless (for example, note how much the pitching numbers for Milwaukee changed from 08 to 09, looking at 08 tells me very little about how the Brewers pitching will be in 2010). And as the division stands right now, unless a number of teams make huge trades/ FA signings. There is not a whole lot of indication that the offense in the NL Central should be marked for a huge upswing next season. The Cubs aren't likely going to be adding any top flight offensive players, and their superstars are entering into their mid 30s. The Cardinals will be worse offensively next year unless they can sign someone like Holliday. The Astros big offensive signing this offseason was Pedro Feliz, they have no more money for further improvement. The Reds are unlikely to improve dramatically, and their biggest FA splash might be one of Counsell, Carrol, or Gomes. Finally, the Pirates only major FA signing to this point is Bobby Crosby. Do you see anything in any of these teams that is going dramatically change so that the division is going to OPS .020 points higher collectively? The opposite could be said of the NL West, as we are hearing the Giants as being one of the front runners to sign either Bay or Holliday. The Rockies are young and good and that shouldn't change much. The Diamondbacks aren't changing at all offensively. Finally, the Dodgers are going to have a full year of Manny (rather than half a year), so I see them getting better, not worse. What has been "normal" in the past is beside the point. What is important is how the teams performed last season, and what changes are taking place to last year's ball clubs and how that will likely influence their offense capabilities for next season. After last season the Central had some catching up to do, and I see no way they'll be catching the West next season. If you remove Milwaukee and San Diego from the equation, I can't see any way that a non-biased person would call the Central the stronger offensive division at this point. I think you are grasping at straws.

Non-tendering Bush would almost guarantee that Suppan would be in the starting rotation as I doubt they would add two more legit SP options at this point. Having Bush on the roster gives us flexibility (versus cutting him and signing another high priced starter to a long term contract). He'll be signed to a one year deal, probably at a fairly decent rate due to last season's numbers. His career numbers and the first half of last season (prior to injury problems) suggest that he is a guy who will put up an ERA in the mid 4s. That's worth the 3 million or so he will make in arby. I'd rather have him than be locked into a contract with Washburn or Davis for three or four years. Those WOULD be Suppan-esque contracts.

Right, but who has said that? No one. We can agree then he's not likely going to put up a sub 4 ERA if he pitched for the Brewers (although I think it's more likely he would than Dave Bush). Trouble with your numbers is, they include his injury plagued 2008 season and treat that equally with all the rest of his stats. If you include those stats and think that makes the stats predictive of what he'll do next season, then yes he profiles as a guy who will likely end up with an ERA around 4.50. However, if you recognize that he was injured in '08 and account for that, he profiles to be a guy who projects to be somewhere between 4.00-4.25. It's all about whether you ignore the injury or not. Apparently you are just fine pretending like it doesn't matter and just letting the combined numbers dictate what to expect. Normally I agree with you a lot, because I think statistics are the way to go because they are objective, BUT I don't think one can blindly look at the advanced statistics without also taking note of situations such as injuries which may have influenced a player's collective numbers in an extremely negative fashion (as Correia's injury plagued 2008 season most certainly did). Even though it isn't a measuring stick for you, I thought I'd include his road ERAs from the years he was not playing injured - 09, 07, and 06: 09 - 4.19 07 - 3.84 06 - 3.79 Finally, would you admit that your assumption that going from the West to the Central would make things harder for Correia was erroneous and was based on perception rather than fact? After all, that was part of your argument that we could only expect a 4.50 ERA out of Correia. Or has that part of the argument been conveniently forgotten?

Not bad that we were able to sign Zaun for a million less per year than Kendell. And on a one year deal with an option no less, whereas Kendell signed a two year deal.

Ouch, two years for $6 Million. That's like flushing 6 million dollars down the drain. I was thinking $2 million per year tops for Kendell.

For all of those who thought he would simply be non-tendered. This was posted on MLB trade rumors last night, "8:08 PM: MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter) is saying that the Padres are, in fact, going to try and deal Correia before Saturday's non-tender deadline rather than just let the pitcher leave." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/discussion-kevin-correia.html So you are saying the fact that the average NL West (aside from the Padres) scored over a third of a run more than the NL Central (aside from the Brewers) is simply luck? That's weak reasoning. The point being, even though the NL West scored a ton more runs than the NL Central, Correia's ERA was solid there. But fine, since you aren't convinced by Runs Scored, let's look at OPS. NL West: 1. Colorado .784 (best in the NL) 2. LA Dodgers .758 (better than any of the Brewers' division rivals) 3. Arizona .742 (better than any of the Brewers' division rivals except the Cardinals) 4. San Francisco .699 (worst in the NL) NL Central: 1. St Louis .747 (would have barely been third best in the NL West) 2. Chicago .738 (would have been fourth best in NL West) 3. Houston .719 (ditto) 4. Cincinnati .712 (ditto) 5. Pittsburgh .705 (ditto) Average OPS for NL West (not including San Diego): .746 (or only one hundreth of a point behind St. Louis, the top OPSing Brewers' division rival) Average OPS for NL Central (not including Milwaukee): .724 No matter what metric you want to use, the NL West comes out on top as the better offensive division. Finally, please stop making strawmen posts. I've read zero posts where people are saying that they expect him to have a sub-4 ERA next season. I certainly haven't been saying that. He'll likely be fall somewhere between a 4.00-4.25, which is extremely valuable. It also is a bit better than we should be expecting from Dave Bush (who I see as more of a 4.50-4.75 ERA talent). Correia is one step up from Bush. As far as evaluating him over the past four years, he's been solid every season except the season he dealt with an oblique injury. To just blindly look at the numbers from the past four years while ignoring that fact, isn't a wise way to evaluate a player.

Coin flip is perhaps a bit strong. I imagine the better team probably wins around 55% - 60% of playoff series. But that's just based on calculations I've seen posted on this site by those who have crunched the numbers. Truth be told, especially in the 5 game series, anything can happen. The longer the series, the more likely it is that the better team wins. Statistically speaking by having the better team, you might improve your chances of getting through a playoff series by 10%. That's a pretty marginal amount, and it's why many point to the playoffs as being somewhat of a crap shoot.

Runs scored, since we are talking about Earn Runs here, that would seem the logical stat to be looking at. I find the idea that he'd have a huge drop off from his road ERA unlikely. Here are runs scored from last season for the NL West Rockies: 804 (second highest Runs Scored in the NL behind Philly) Dodgers: 780 (higher than any NL Central team except the Brewers) Arizona: 720 (only 10 runs less than St. Louis who had the second highest RS in the Central behind the Brew Crew) San Francisco: 657 (higher than both Pittsburgh and Houston) Here are the runs scored from last season for the NL Central (non Brewers) Cardinals: 730 (would have been good for third best in NL West) Cubs: 707 (would have been fourth in NL West) Reds: 673 (also would have been fourth) Astros: 643 (would have been the worst in NL West - and they just signed no hit Pedro Feliz to play 3b) Pirates: 636 (worst offense at scoring runs in the whole NL) Which set of opponents would you rather face? Padres' division rivals averaged out to scoring 740.25 runs last season (or better than the Cardinals, the highest scoring opponent in the Brewer's division). Brewers' division rivals averaged out to scoring 677.8 runs last season. To put it another way, Padres' division rivals scored over a third of a run more per game than the Brewers' division rivals (.385 runs more). All this despite having the two best pitching staffs in the NL in the division (SF and LA). Looking at all these facts, it would seem like a move into the NL Central and the Brewers would help him more than hurt him.

Road ERA last season: 4.18 Pitching in San Diego certainly helped, but not as much as you would lead others to believe. As far as the division is concerned, LA was one of the better offenses in the NL last year, and Colorado wasn't a slouch either. He pitched FOR the team that was the weakest offensively in that division. Take out the Padre's poor offense, and the rest of the division isn't THAT bad. (San Francisco and Arizona both being slightly below average, but I'd counter that by pointing out that the Central has the Pirates and the Reds, both equally as bad.)

As many have pointed out already. In comparing this signing to the Suppan signing. Wolf is 1) a significantly better pitcher, 2) signed for less money 3) to a shorter contract. To compare the two is bogus IMO.

Hmm, I've been finding Creed less and less funny. The same joke week after week gets old. He's involved in illicit activity, it was funny the first 10 times, not so much anymore for me. It's become far too predictable.

You are dodging the point. Aside from the season where he dealt with injuries, he has been an above average pitcher. You can try to explain it away any way you like by discounting RP ERA. The fact remains when he's been healthy, he's put up an above average ERA, there is little to debate about that. One other thing to consider is that becoming a RP is most advantageous to pitchers with a limited pitch repertoire (two pitch pitchers - Such as Vargas essentially is at this point). The fewer quality pitches a pitcher throws, the more advantageous it is for him to throw from the pen. This simply does not describe Correia as he has thrown three solid pitches throughout his career (a solid Sinking Fastball, Change, and Slider). That point made, his being in the pen should not be a huge advantage in comparison to his starting numbers. He has the number of pitches to succeed at both. The only argument that has held any logical water in this whole discussion is the one that pointed to his dramatic increase in IP. That is concerning. You are entitled to your opinion, just understand that I don't see the facts justifying said opinion. Your opinion leans heavily on stats produced during an injury plagued season (something you have yet to admit). When the rest of his body of work is very respectful. If he were to pitch for Milwaukee next season, I think we could anticipate an ERA in the 4.00-4.25 range, which IMO is more valuable than anything Green will ever do for the Crew. Here are some facts about Green: He had a wrist injury, which is well known to sap power long term for players. His OPS last season in 300 AA ABs was a dismal .686 with only 5 HR. There are no guarantees that his power will return, it's essentially a coinflip (cf Brad Nelson). Baseball Cube's scouting report rates his speed as: 10 on a 100 point scale. So his range is limited even for a 3b. On top of that he is third in the depth chart at 3b. Is keeping a guy like that justifiable if the alternative would be having two years of a solid middle of the rotation cost controlled starter with no long term commitment? Once again, it seems a point I made earlier wasn't understood. I'm not saying the Brewers should start the bidding at Green. Start the bidding with as poor of a prospect as possible. But IF the bidding gets intense, Green shouldn't be untouchable. He's far from a sure thing, whereas Correia is much more of a sure thing. And let's face it, SP is a far bigger need for the Brewers than 3B and will be for the foreseeable future.

His last 4 years: Last season - 3.91 ERA 2008 - 6.05 ERA 2007 - 3.45 ERA 2006 - 3.49 ERA One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong. That 2008 couldn't possibly be related to a season where he went through a lot of injury problems. Let's throw out that little fact and keep acting like he isn't a very solid pitcher/overvalue a mediocre prospect.

I suppose if you completely ignore how well he pitched last season, I could see how you don't think he's worthwhile (he improved greatly last season). He's a solid #3 and a solid #3 is very valuable, especially to teams short on pitching like the Brewers.

Why would a team wait for him to be non-tendered? He'll probably cost just as much on the Free Agent market, plus you have to fight for control with 29 other teams for his services. If you trade for him you take out all competition for him. I think you are playing down the ability of Correia. The Padres are insane for not being willing to go to Arby for him.

TRWI7, I know how to read. My point, and the point CLEARLY made by most here in this discussion is that it seems like a no brainer for a number of teams to offer prospects to San Diego for Correia's services. Certainly, we should give them the worst prospect possible. However, if the bidding gets started on him, I don't think giving away Green would be too steep a price for Correia's services, which was the whole point of the past page of discussion. Understand now?

How do we know he is going to be non-tendered though? I imagine for a pitcher of his caliber that there will be other teams willing to offer prospects for him (after all he is cheap and cost controlled for the next two seasons). Thus the reason I believe it'll likely take a prospect like Green to get him. Certainly, if we can get him for a lesser prospect, do that. I just don't see it. He's a solid player and I imagine the Padres will get offers for him.

I don't know why Green would be too much for Correia. Correia's numbers last season were excellent. 3.91 ERA, 142 k vs only 64 bb in 198 IP. He would have been the 2nd best SP on our rotation last season. Heck, he could possibly be the second best SP on our rotation for this season too. He's a solid #3. I guess I don't see why Green is such a good prospect that he wouldn't be worth giving up for a solid #3. Especially when we take into account Green's wrist injury and the possible impact of said injury. But this is coming from someone who is not entirely sold on Green as a future MLB 3b. So I suppose it could be taken with a grain of salt.

1) The first major "flaw" I see in your argument is this idea that the Brewers "sat" on Hardy. Escobar was not ready for the majors last season, he needed that extra year in the minors. Yes, in a perfect world we should have traded Hardy last offseason when his stock was highest, but no one saw this collapse of production coming. Had that sudden collapse not happened so suddenly, we would still have gotten a lot for him. Plus, what your argument fails to account for is the fact that we will now have one more year of Escobar in his prime. Maximizing value from your prospects is vital for a small market. 2) No one could have known when the Sabathia deal happened that it would result in a first round exit. When the deal was made, Sheets was healthy. If Sheets remained healthy, we would have gone into that playoff series with a rotation of Sabathia, Sheets, and Gallardo. Combine that with our strong offense and we had as good a shot as any other team of making it deep into the playoffs. If said deal would have gotten us to the World Series, I have no doubt you'd be whistling a different tune. The point is, one can not make the WS without making the playoffs. Unfortunately the coin-flip that is the playoffs didn't work out for us. 3) We all would like internal options to stick into the rotation, however the problem is this. Either A) we gut our minor leagues by trading away all of our advanced prospects for SP or B) we sign a somewhat overpriced FA pitcher. Due to our huge reliance on the farm system to remain competitive in other areas of our ballclub and the budget money we had available this offseason the choice was simple. 4) Comparing our situation with Tampa Bay isn't really fair because they went through an extremely long run of top 5 draft picks. They stunk so bad for so long that they had all of these top of the draft draft picks to trade away for top pitching prospects. Their farm system was absolutely loaded because of their ineptitude (yes, worse ineptitude than even the Brewers over the past decade). And as far as we know, it may only turn into a one year shot for them as well (does anyone see them taking down the Red Sox or the Yankees this year? I don't). 5) As far as the Brewers having only one shot at the playoffs. Even at this stage in the offseason without the addition of a second FA/trade target pitcher I think we are likely going to be one of the favorites in the hunt for winning our division. The Cubs are unlikely to add a lot this offseason and have aging superstars who each year are getting worse and more injury prone. The Cardinals just added Brad Penny who had an ERA in the high 4s last year, and an ERA in the 6s the year before that, along with a history of arm troubles. If they aren't able to resign Holliday and DeRosa, their offense is going to be putrid aside from Pujols, plus they'll be wishing on a star that Carpentar's arm doesn't fall apart as it so often does. If we add a Coreia-type pitcher via trade, we may even start the season as the NL Central favorites. Edit: 6) Pitching can not be the be-all, end-all of an organization. As most know, pitchers face a higher amount of injuries and are a much more dangerous investment. If one puts all their chickens in the starting pitching basket, you are playing a risky game. On top of that, as most of our years with Ben Sheets should tell us, having a solid pitcher with a bad offense is not equal to a lot of wins.

FWIW, I'd be shocked if Bush got 5 million in Arby. He is coming off of an injury riddled season with an ERA over 6.

I've got a crush on Rachel, even if she can be a bit egocentric at times. I love the show itself, especially how they blend music into the storyline. It's like watching a musical each week, the creativity that goes into the show is astounding.

Agreed, if the choice is between keeping Bush or keeping Villanueva, the Brewers have to keep Bush. He's proven in the past to be a capable starter. And after last season's numbers, I highly doubt he'll be all that expensive in arby.

Not sure where this best fits, but this update by McCalvy concerns me a bit: up against their budget but still open to free agent IF Craig Counsell. GM Melvin: "I'm not going to take an offer off the table." Does this mean that the Brewers are not going to be able to add another significant FA starter? Or that they don't have room to add a bit of payroll for a SP in a trade? (such as a guy like Correa) What confuses me more is after saying that, McCalvy talks about how the Brewers will be visiting with Mulder next month to offer him a contract. I think our team needs one more upgrade at SP, but I'm not sure that Mulder is enough. Someone like Correa would be ideal. Rotation of: Gallardo Wolf Correa Bush Parra/Mulder/Suppan

Non-tendering Bush so we can sign Washburn or Davis makes no sense to me. Trading a one year cost controlled option in Bush for a multiyear deal to a mediocre pitcher is not wise IMO. Bush is a much better pitcher than his ERA numbers from last season suggest, until the injuries hit him, his ERA was in the mid-4s (4.58 on June 10th). Would we expect much better from Davis or Washburn? Is it worth it for us to take the risk of another long term contract?