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splitterpfj

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Everything posted by splitterpfj

  1. splitterpfj
    Yes, Sandy, Kipnis was hurt last year.
  2. splitterpfj
    There's no reason to, "win", or, "lose" a trade, at the time the deal is made. The way teams seem to value players in the same ways now, it shouldn't be that hard to reach an agreement both sides like at the time. You can't control who gets hurt later, or which prospects don't make it, etc, so yes, someone may win or lose, but the deal should be sound at the time it's made. Trying to make the other guy look bad, or willingly taking a fall in a deal would both bring negative consequences for the franchise.
  3. splitterpfj
    FWIW, my offer for Archer is: Santana, Woodruff or Burnes, Peralta, and Gatewood or Grisham. I would replace Santana with Phillips if TB wants to, but I doubt they would. I think Archer is, “really good”, but not elite, and I think Santana is being a bit undervalued by some.
  4. splitterpfj
    For Archer - Santana’s in, because he should be - I think two pitching prospects make sense for Tampa, and Woodruff is actually a great choice because he can start the season in their rotation. I think they can be moved off of Phillips, I’ll suggest Gatewood or Grisham, but then I think it comes down to Burnes. Santana, Woodruff, Gatewood and Burnes is my guess, if this one happens at all.
  5. splitterpfj
    The Brewers are trying to, “win now”, or, “win NOW!” We’ll know which soon, they could get Darvish and Archer, Darvish or Archer, or neither. My guess - TB’s not knocking Santana or Phillips - they just aren’t focusing on adding an outfielder, and would prefer multiple prospects. If this is true, Burnes or Huira would be gone, and possibly both.
  6. splitterpfj
    I don’t see anything new in Rosenthal’s comment - the Brewers want Archer, but the Rays seem to want a package the Brewers would prefer not to give. Isn’t that what HighHeat already said? I don’t think the conversation is over at this point.
  7. splitterpfj
    There’s no point in going for it, “kinda.” The Brewers need an impactful addition to the starting rotation. Go for it, what’s your offer for Archer at this point?
  8. splitterpfj
    When you're trying to match up a trade idea with Cleveland, or any other team for that matter, the idea has to show obvious benefit for both sides. Cleveland won't give up a catching prospect like Mejia, because Milwaukee included a catching prospect like Nottingham - that just won't happen. The Indians don't necessarily need a second baseman back if they deal Jason Kipnis, because they can move Jose Ramirez over from third base - maybe they trust Yandy Diaz enough to hand him third base, or maybe that's the position they'd look to fill in a trade, or a free agent signing. Besides right-handed power, the most obvious place I see to help the Indians is in their bullpen - they lost two free agents out of there this winter, and they may lose both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen after the 2018 season. If I'm the Indians, I want that righty power bat if I can get it, and I want young arms to fill bullpen spots with, perhaps this year, but almost certainly for next year. They may want either a second baseman or a third baseman, I don't know, I would guess that depends on what they believe Yandy Diaz is going to be. I'd ask the Indians for starting pitching, and I'd be offering Santana, if the deal gets complex, I would expect them to want a young pitcher for their current and (especially) future bullpens. If we have an arm like that headed their way, then a prospect at a position of need can come our way. Don't try to, "win" the trade, try to make the trade that works.
  9. splitterpfj
    I believe he said he’d post again on Tuesday.
  10. splitterpfj
    I think this is high. 2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M 2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M 2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M 2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise. I've got: 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M = 126.5M "Trade Bonus" 2M Signing Bonus Deferred at 3M x 4 more years 12M 10M deferred for both 2016 and 2017 20M I have 160.5M, is that right?
  11. splitterpfj
    I remember thinking AZ gave Greinke a horrible contract at the time - that's exactly what it is, a truly horrible contract. I won't rule Greinke out, simply because I believe the Brewers are turning over every possible stone, but AZ would have to be paying a great deal of the money. If I'm them, I get out of this deal right now, while Greinke is still desirable - make it a financial deal, and don't worry about who the Brewers send back. My answer, I'll pay the man 60M over the next four years, AZ essentially gets a human being back, because it's called, a "trade."
  12. splitterpfj
    If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years. So, at this point, how much are you willing to pay per year, to add Greinke for the next four years? If the DBacks took half the money, the Brewers have Greinke at 20M per year (yes, they'd have to sort out the deferrals, etc, to make the annual budgets work). What's your number to do it - Brewers pick up 80M? 100M? 60M? Keep in mind, the less money the Brewers pay, the better the talent needs to get, going to AZ. What are you willing to do, in dollars, and then in players, to get it done?
  13. splitterpfj
    It may not be, but what would you give to get it done?
  14. splitterpfj
    Zack Greinke's contract is complex, and for huge money, hence, AZ has talked about dealing him. Salary structure: 2016:31M, 2017:31M, 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M Zack signed for 206.5 million, taking him through the 2021 season - part of that was an 18M signing bonus, paid in installments, to date, 6M of that has been paid. Some of the money is deferred, ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), paid in installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26. If traded, Zack gets an additional 2M. There is a no-trade, to 15 teams, I have no idea if the Brewers are on the list. Zack is 34 now, he is signed through age 37, he will turn 38 during he 2021 postseason. What would you give bring Greinke back to the Brewers? Be emotional, or be logical, but be honest .... in terms of players, and dollars, what deal would you make? EDIT: Spitter, I noticed you had Greinke's 2021 salary as $2M. If corrected it to $32M.
  15. splitterpfj
    I wouldn't move Hader out of the pen, I applaud the choice. The game uses bullpens in different, and much more prominent ways than ever before - I love having an arm like that at the manager's disposal when the game situation calls for it. The only way I will disapprove is if they lock him into a specific role, such as only pitching the 8th inning - my whole point is using him when he can help the most, regardless. I get it, with work, Hader may someday become a true difference maker in the rotation, but I think he'll be a true difference maker in the bullpen - right now.
  16. splitterpfj
    I love this move, period. It won't surprise me if Monte Harrison has the best MLB career of the four guys Milwaukee traded, and yes, the Marlins got a ton of potential in the deal. The Brewers got a true stud, an under-appreciated talent because he doesn't hit huge HR totals, but a real talent, for five years, on a great contract. Trading that many quality prospects is always a risk, but this is a move I would make. My one issue with it, at the moment at least, is the very obvious need for a good starting pitcher. If the Brewers fill that hole, then I'll think the decision to get Yelich was incredible, and if not, it's still absolutely a move I would make.
  17. splitterpfj
    I love Lorenzo Cain, for 2018 and 2019 I just love the move, each year after that will make me nervous. Free agency almost always brings "bad money" on the back half of a deal, because you're buying a guy at or near the end of his prime, and if he's got multiple bidders, the winning team had to stretch to get it done. I'll bet the last two years of this deal aren't real pretty, but I'd much rather root for a team that will honestly try to win it all, than to watch a team get close, sit, and then fall back (Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you). Go Lo'!
  18. splitterpfj
    I don’t expect the Brewers to sign Arrieta, but no, I wouldn’t say it isn’t still possible.
  19. splitterpfj
    Very nice.
  20. splitterpfj
    The Brewers have shopped Santana all winter, and did you notice how Cain passed his physical already - that means that deal was agreed to before today. I think a Santana deal was in place before today’s moves were announced.
  21. splitterpfj
    Whatever the results of this trade, it’s a bold move, and I love the effort. If you love it, then you see what I see in Yelich. If you hate it, then you see what I see in those kids. I won’t be surprised if both points of view are proven to be valid.
  22. splitterpfj
    I want Lorenzo Cain on the 2018 Brewers, but I do not want a player signed to a four-year deal through age 35. I really like him, but I wouldn’t do it.
  23. splitterpfj
    I've had insider stuff a couple of times in the past, (I have nothing at all right now), and I've been told flat out not to get too specific, and never to quote my source. It's years ago now, but one time it was a player who gave me some very detailed stuff, and all he closed with was, "If you ever mention my name, you'll never hear from me again." Well, he wound up signing with another team that offseason .... and I've never heard from him again anyway! When someone trusts you on a level that could cause them a great deal of trouble, you've simply got to respect that - I have no idea who knows what, but generally speaking, I know this stuff goes on.
  24. splitterpfj
    Here are the Marlins' contracts, if you want to sort out a trade idea .... http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/miami-marlins/
  25. splitterpfj
    I'd give the Marlins until the end of the day tomorrow - yes or no guys.
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