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Everything posted by splitterpfj
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Predict the Brewers 1st Post All Star Game Trade
splitterpfj replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Let's have some fun .... Brewers get Jose Quintana from the White Sox, for Corey Ray, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff, and a PTBNL. -
Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
splitterpfj replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He's an excellent pitcher, just not elite .... and hasn't the whole world had a HR spike this season? -
The Tyler Badamo Brewerfan Lovefest Thread
splitterpfj replied to splitterpfj's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Tyler's contract has been purchased by the Arizona Diamondbacks, from the Bridgeport Bluefish - he will report to high-A Visalia, of the California League. -
2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
splitterpfj replied to And That's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I cringe at first round picks with trouble making contact, or trouble throwing strikes - save the projects for later rounds. Hence, I like the pick - best of luck, young man! -
The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)
splitterpfj replied to ZBTMP's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Thank you - many life changes - divorce, new town, new job - I'll be back. -
The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)
splitterpfj replied to ZBTMP's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
When I said this, it was just a guess, and the response here was flat - now look where McKay is projected. It just shows how fluid the process is, and how quickly perceptions can change - here's hoping the Brewers, "guess right" a lot in the next few days. -
1. Josh Hader 2. Lewis Brinson 3. Corey Ray 4. Isan Diaz 5. Luis Ortiz 6. Brandon Woodruff 7. Brett Phillips 8. Mauricio Dubon 9. Lucas Erceg 10. Trent Clark 11. Ryan Cordell 12. Marcos Diplan 13. Jorge Lopez 14. Phil Bickford 15. Gilbert Lara 16. Corbin Burnes 17. Freddy Peralta 18. Cody Ponce 19. Jacob Nottingham 20. Monte Harrison 21. Nathan Kirby 22. Kodi Medeiros 23. Chad Pennington 24. Demi Orimoloye 25. Jake Gatewood
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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
splitterpfj replied to pete's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The market for power bats has been lousy this winter, there are lots of options available, I think that's why Braun is still here. -
Trading for Francisco Mejia from the Tribe.
splitterpfj replied to HighHeat19's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Exactly. Stearns was selling one piece at a time - it would be fun to know where that was headed. I like what the Brewers got, but it would be fun to know what the offers were. -
Trading for Francisco Mejia from the Tribe.
splitterpfj replied to HighHeat19's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Exactly. Stearns was selling one piece at a time - it would be fun to know where that was headed. I like what the Brewers got, but it would be fun to know what the offers were. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Since Encarnacion is a year older, and he got this money for three years, I would bet Braun, as a free agent, would get similar dollars, for four years - I don't see a reason why he wouldn't. The thing is, if you go to trade a guy who's signed for at or near what the market is paying - the prospects you get back are a premium for the other team - the talent they give up is above and beyond the money the player is worth .... and then they'll pay him the money too. To get the kind of talent you'd want in the deal, I think the Brewers already knew they'd have to take back some money in the trade - if the rumors concerning LA were true, Milwaukee had already acknowledged that by agreeing to take back Brandon McCarthy. The market for power bats has been slow this winter - Encarnacion sitting as long as he did was Exhibit A. "They" are talking about a glut of power hitters, and a glut of available outfielders. Everyone jumped on bullpen guys again, the White Sox sold big twice, the Dodgers paid big to keep what they already had - and really not a lot more until this deal for Encarnacion. The Brewers aren't going to give Braun away, if the market doesn't go their way this winter, then we'll watch Ryan Braun play some more baseball. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
In 1989, Robin Yount won the AL MVP, at age 34 - that offseason, the Brewers outbid the California Angels, to keep him here. (By the way, I believe Robin's new contract made him the highest paid player in baseball for a brief time). Robin never produced at the same level again, he still had power in 1990, but his batting average fell off by 71 points. The next season, he had a kidney stone, and hit the DL for one of just two times in his career - his power fell off, and in '92, despite playing in 150 games, he hit 8 home runs - his final season had similar results. In short, Yount's last big year came at age 34 - it's very subjective, Dale Murphy's last big year came at age 31, Jim Rice was at age 33, Mike Schmidt was age 37, George Brett still had power at 35, and won a batting title at 37. It's definitely a guessing game. -
Braxton broke his wrist, then got himself arrested - even if you favor dealing him, this doesn't seem like the best time.
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What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Obviously, the Brewers want more than what they've been offered, and just as obviously, no one has stepped up with that offer - OK then, Braun's a Brewer. I'd prefer a good deal, for more young talent, but I'd much rather watch Braun play for the Brewers than watch a trade happen for guys the Brewers really don't believe in. I can't see David Stearns taking a deal he doesn't like, and I can't see Stearns walking away from young talent that he thinks is worth getting. (That HE thinks is worth getting - don't get married to somebody's ranking or projection). I'd still bet on a trade, even if it doesn't come this offseason. -
A friend of mine is a professor at Ball State University. Today, he walked into a bathroom and found a student, texting and using the urinal at the same time. I'm not sure it's, "bugging me", but I didn't know where else to post this.
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What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The problem with this entire scenario is that Cain has 10/5 rights. That's true, and I hadn't realized it - forget Matt Cain. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Just for fun, let's say this .... The Giants do have an obvious need in LF right now, there's no doubt about it - so let's assume the two teams have agreed Braun goes to SF, with Matt Cain coming to Mil, to offset some money. Cain is due 20 million for this year, and he's got a 21M option for next year, that has a 7.5M buyout .... so Cain is a 27.5M commitment, which brings Braun's money down to 48.5 million remaining. From there, what do you ask for? Do you ask for more/better prospects, do you try to get them to take Garza back, at the expense of the prospect return? Do you offer them some other pitcher, to take Cain's spot? What's your deal? http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sf -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
On Justin Turner ..... position scarcity, which is certainly a big deal, is the only advantage I see for him over Braun. Turner is 32, he has appeared in more than 126 games exactly one time, he has had issues with his hamstrings, and he suffered a major regression against left-handed pitching this year, in what was easily the best season of his career. LA was the worst in the big leagues against lefties, and Turner was clearly part of the problem, (which is weird, his OPS against lefties has taken a big step backwards two years in a row, despite the fact that he's right-handed). Whatever anyone thinks of Braun, I see Turner's new deal as an enormous gamble for LA - they've guaranteed 64 million to this player, through age 36 - I see that as "right place, right time", much more so than track record. They'd better hope they haven't already gotten the best he's got, and I would absolutely bet there's some dead money on the end of this deal. On overvaluing Braun - speaking only for myself, I realize the Brewers aren't going to get a return even close to what the White Sox got twice already this winter, if anyone is expecting a prospect like Yoan Moncada, or Lucas Giolito in a return for Braun - don't. Braun's still an impact hitter, for sure, and that has a great deal of value, but he's also 33, not late 20s, and his money, whether he stays healthy or not, is still much greater than guys like Adam Eaton and Chris Sale are being paid at this point. His contract isn't, "bad", yes I think he'd get a deal comparable to what he's signed for if he became a free agent - but keep in mind, that means that's where his value is, so if someone essentially pays full price for him by trading for his entire contract - the prospects they include are, if you will, "paying extra" to get Braun .... they're paying full price in dollars, so the players they include are above and beyond, in a respect. Having said that - from the Brewers' point of view - this is still a man who makes a difference with his bat - unless you're motivated to be rid of the financial commitment, you don't move that player for prospects you're not sure of. I think Milwaukee is doing the right thing by stating they're only moving him to get talent, not to move money .... time will tell if they can get it. I absolutely think Ryan Braun is worth a package that includes a player like Bellinger or De Leon, but I also think the Brewers would have to knock off that last year on his deal, or 20 million, to get the other team to agree to a deal like that - that's what Brandon McCarthy is for, in that scenario. I get it, Braun's a unique case, and hard to match up in a deal. When you factor in his bat, but also his age, the financial commitment, and the short number of teams the Brewers can talk to - working a deal for him is not an easy game to play. I think the Brewers are doing it right - they've got the payroll flexibility, and Braun's got the bat .... if the offers aren't what you want, then wait as long as you can. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade. I don't believe that, and if it's true, then there's no reason to trade him. Justin Turner has turned himself into a fine MLB player, but he is not, and has never been, in the class of Ryan Braun. If that player can get 64 million, guaranteed, at age 32 - he, with the 58 career big league home runs - if that player is worth 64 million dollars right now - no one can ever tell me Ryan Braun's contract is an unworkable obstacle. PEDs? Oh please - how much did the Cardinals guarantee Jhonny Peralta again? How many times has Bartolo Colon been busted? I see he got another contract - again. It looks to me like Melky Cabrera is still employed too, so there's that. Injuries? Yes, to a point - but the production is undeniably still there - this is still an outstanding power hitter. If the Brewers truly can't get anything better than a guy like Arroyo or Beede, plus some guys who are well down the list in a weak farm system, for Braun, then Braun should stay right where he is. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The problem with the Giants is, they have Arroyo, Beede and Shaw at the top of their list - any of whom would be an excellent, "second guy" in a Braun trade, but none of whom are, "the guy" that makes Milwaukee do the deal. It just doesn't look like a match to me at this point. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The last I saw, the Pirates had about 60 million in payroll committed to 13 players. I don't have any idea if they would, or could, take on additional salary in a trade. (both McCarthy and Kazmir make more than anyone on their roster) Edit: Thanks, Point. The Dodgers look like they'll have Hill, Jansen, and Turner back - but they had an achilles heel last year - they can't hit lefties - and they've done nothing to address that. If they don't go get a right-handed masher, they're literally providing the kryptonite. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I haven't seen anyone advocate for the Brewers to give the Dodgers any money. The Dodgers simply are not going to add a player like Braun to their existing payroll, because they are already tens of millions of dollars over the luxury tax threshold. If they took on Braun, at 20 million for next year, they'd be taxed an additional ten million ..... suddenly, Braun would cost them 30 million dollars next season. The Dodgers are not going to do that. My point is, not to give LA a single penny, but to exchange Braun for a combination of good prospects and bad contracts - forget mediocre prospects - that defeats the purpose. Ryan Braun is guaranteed 80 million dollars from this point forward - that number goes to 95 million if his option is picked up, rather than bought out at the end of the deal. That 80 million dollars, since it is guaranteed, is now spent - regardless. The Dodgers are sitting there with Cody Bellinger and Jose De Leon at the top of their farm system - two players who are currently rated right on par with guys like Corey Ray and Josh Hader. In other words, the Brewers' farm system has one player in it who is currently considered a clear upgrade over either of them, in Lewis Brinson. For this deal to be worth it, I think the Brewers have to get one of those two prospects at the front of the deal, and I think the second kid should be on, or near, any "Top 100" list you can find. If the Brewers can do that, if they can get De Leon, and one more good young player, while actually shedding about half of what Braun is owed, I absolutely think they should do it. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Might the Dodgers want Scooter Gennett? Yes, that's possible. Might the Dodgers want someone like Junior Guerra or Carlos Torres? Yes, that's possible. Keep in mind though, every dollar the Dodgers add in payroll also adds to their luxury tax - it likely just increases the amount the Brewers have to take back to get it done. Edit: In the next two seasons - the Dodgers' bad tax years - Braun is due 40 million dollars. For those same two seasons, Scott Kazmir is due 35.5 million, while Brandon McCarthy is due 23 million. If the Brewers took Kazmir back in the deal, instead of McCarthy, LA can add Braun, without adding a single dollar in payroll for two years, by shedding just under 5 million additional somewhere. If the Brewers get Puig too, he makes 8.2 million next year, and 9.2 in 2018. LA could get Braun and Gennett, Torres, or Guerra, while actually reducing their payroll for the next two seasons. Oh, it can be done, Ray ..... it can most definitely be done. -
What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
splitterpfj replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The payroll tax situation is bad for LA for the next two seasons - at least at the moment - the Brewers could take back enough dead money to make Braun "free" for the next two years. That is, if Milwaukee takes back enough to equal Braun's money for 2017 and 2018, LA gets exactly the type of player they need - a player who could put them over the top - without adding any additional payroll until 2019, which would be after Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford come off the books. I think it absolutely can be done, but it's up to LA to decide Braun's the way they want to go. Signing a free agent just adds to their 2017 bills, so I don't expect that - we'll have to see if they prefer a different trade target, I just can't see LA leaving their lineup where it is right now; this team was last in the majors in OBP and SLG against lefties last year. Edit: Ryan Braun absolutely fits the Dodgers - they need a player who can absolutely mash lefties, and the spot they have to fit that player into, is corner outfield. If you're going to find a righty slugger, who has proven himself, you are talking about adding a MLB veteran - a player who's making money, because power gets paid, and it would be a player who has proven it, or what's the point for the Dodgers? Where do you find a guy like that, without adding payroll? Almost nowhere - you have to find that unique talent, on a rebuilding team, that has already shed enough payroll to take back some bad contracts from you, to shield you from a luxury tax of fifty cents on the dollar for every additional dollar you spend at this point. To get this done, you also have to have the sort of prospects a rebuilding team would want - this won't be a giveaway in the first place, and if you're sending back bad contracts, it most certainly will cost you some strong young talent. Enter Milwaukee - they have Ryan Braun - he fits exactly what the Dodgers are trying to add, and oh, by the way, the Dodgers are one of the few teams he cannot block a trade to (at least as far as we know) - he's from the area, and he grew up rooting for the Dodgers. The Brewers have the payroll space to take back whatever Braun would make for the next two years - there's no question of that, and the Dodgers have the prospects to get Milwaukee's attention. IF, LA wants Braun, the table is set.

