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JosephC, that's exactly right - the luxury tax is the issue for LA, not any discussion of what Braun would get as a free agent, that's irrelevant in this case. The factors are .... LA needs a hitter who mashes lefty pitching - lefties just destroyed them last year. The positions they have open to fit that hitter into right now, are left field, and second base - it doesn't take long to figure out, left field is a much more likely solution than second base to fill that need. A free agent just isn't likely now, given their payroll tax situation, they're in a unique position of trying to win the 2017 World Series, having a very obvious need, and not wanting to add more money to the pile. This statement is not about Braun's worth, it is about the Dodgers' ability to add his contract to their existing commitments - the Brewers have to make Braun cheap enough for LA, while LA has to make the prospect return big enough for Milwaukee. This was always the case, only now, the Dodgers have a clear picture of what their costs are, because Jansen just agreed to a five-year deal, and Justin Turner is very close to a 4-year deal. Will the Brewers take on enough bad money to make it work? Will the Dodgers target a less expensive player somewhere else, even if he's less than Braun, specifically because of their luxury tax situation? Will LA ask the Brewers for more players than Braun, to help fill out their bullpen, or perhaps to help them at second base for one season? There are a lot of maybes here, and it won't take long for us to know if this can happen or not.

As I said, once Turner and Jansen are done, then the Dodgers can work on what was missing last season. It won't take long to find out if Braun's on the wish list.

The Dodgers are already over the luxury tax threshold, meaning every dollar they add in player salary is taxed at 50% - a ten million dollar contract is really a fifteen million dollar contract at this point. That is why the Dodgers didn't just say, "gimme Braun." LA is trying to re-sign Justin Turner, which seems likely, and then they have to keep or replace their all-star closer, before they look at Joe Blanton, or an 8th inning replacement - and then they can look to add the things they needed last August, which certainly includes an impact right-handed bat. The Dodgers could be pushing a 240 million dollar payroll if they keep Turner and Jansen - to add anything new, they've got to dump some bad money somewhere - which is exactly why guys like Brandon McCarthy will come up in any trade conversations they have for MLB veteran players. I still think this is a great match, because the Brewers have exactly the type of hitter they need, and the payroll space to take back some money, while the Dodgers have a deep farm system to deal from. Hang in there, the Dodgers have to handle Turner and the closer spot first, then I think they have to get that righty bat. That doesn't guarantee it'll be Braun, but they have to match up with a team that will not only deal them the player they need, but one who will also take back some significant contracts, to lower their cost of adding the new player. That is going to leave the Dodgers with a very short list of teams to deal with.

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference). OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know." If the Dodgers aren't a match, the only possibility I really see is whoever the new team on Braun's list is .... the others just don't have the farm system right now to get Braun.

This trade was driven by, "WAR", and "team control" ..... an excellent player, who is signed, and I would guess the Nats had a competitor in the bidding. It's definitely a great haul for the White Sox, and I think a lesson for all of us, including me - I wouldn't have expected it either.

Speaking specifically of the Dodgers, I do think some of the other dominoes need to fall before they start making multi-player trades. They've got key free agents in the bullpen and at third base, and then they've got the holdover issues, including left field. I have no doubt, that's a team that will make some significant winter moves, but at this point, they're still finding out exactly what they need. I saw they'd asked about Todd Frazier .... do they need to deal for a third baseman or not? If they lose Jansen and Blanton, that leaves a huge hole in the bullpen to fix. They've got needs, and they've got prospects .... but which needs do they need to make trades for? Until that is known, I think a deal for Braun is Plan B.

David Stearns has done what he said he would do - he has acquired young, controllable talent. I'm sure people are wishing the Brewers had gotten a prospect with a recognized name, instead of getting this sort of return for Thornburg, but Milwaukee got plenty of talent back in this trade. In future trades, and in the next draft, it looks like, "pitchers and catchers" for me .... the Brewers need most, what they've traded away. They need to keep working on the next catcher, and as all teams always will, they need as many arms as they can find.

I certainly wouldn't mind being, "stuck with" Braun, and on the McCuthchen stuff ..... any team looking for an outfielder should be checking on him, I see Texas has done so too.

Have they said which five teams will go after round one in the next draft?

Major Kudos, JohnBriggs ..... give that man a cigar!

I was definitely surprised when I heard the news, but I don't see a reason for the team not to try this. It's gutsy, for sure, but in a small market, this is the chance you take, while the guy in Boston or Chicago risks the 200 million dollar contract. A friend of mine texted his "Major League" impression ..... "This guy's dead. Well, cross him off.", when he heard Thames was returning to the states.

I'm curious to this because he's never played first base in his pro baseball career. You're right, I shouldn't have just come out and said that, because he's been an outfielder to this point, but it's what I believe the intent is. No one has told me that, so I shouldn't have just put it in the post, but it's what I think they'll do with him.

The Twins cut Plouffe today, if he isn't claimed, he's a free agent. I don't know if the Brewers have interest, and I don't know if a better team might reach out to him, but he's out there.

Adam Walker, a Milwaukee native, is now a member of the Brewers' organization. Walker profiles as a 30ish homer, 200 K first baseman. Does that remind you of anyone? Walker is 25, he is what he is, and if he's going to play in the big leagues, it's about that time. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=walker002ada

None of us can say what type of offers the Brewers will get for Guerra - not one of us. We don't know if anyone would give up what any of us would consider a, "top prospect", and we don't know that no one will; any statement of certainty, should be tempered. That, is precisely why the Brewers are doing the right thing in going through this process. Guerra is just plain unique - he isn't young, but he isn't old, he surprised everyone and pitched really well, but can he put up 200 IP - it's just a unique mix. The Brewers should find out, and they are.

OK then, I'll clarify my answer. "No." Whether it's for a pitcher or a hitter, the Brewers cannot commit the kind of money it takes to sign any one elite free agent. The only way I can imagine it is if the idea was to trade that player in a couple of years, as Detroit did with Prince Fielder, and in the case of the sort you would consider a true ace pitcher, they'll either get a no-trade clause, or they'll get even more money in place of a no-trade. No, I would not consider it an option for the Milwaukee Brewers to sign an elite free agent starting pitcher, strictly because of the contract it would take, in relation to what team payrolls are likely to be. It's the same reason we'll never sign Mike Trout, but we're talking about pitching. I'll modify my prior comment, "All avenues, all the time, except MLB free agents, when looking for pitching." The pitchers we can afford might help, but most of the time, comparable replacements can be found through other means, and the pitchers we can't afford, are the pitchers we can't afford. The Royals traded kids for James Shields, that didn't get it done, but they did reach the World Series, then the next year they traded more kids for Johnny Cueto, and they won the whole thing. The Indians did it with Andrew Miller, but in each case, the teams most like Milwaukee who have had the type of postseason success you're looking for have traded prospects for established pitching, to get over the top. I would think a trade for a pitcher who is already on a big free agent contract, with the other team kicking in some cash, is much more likely than seeing the Brewers sign that original deal.

The problem with free agent pitching is the contracts are always too long to pay off for a small market franchise. If you sign a pitcher who's over 30, which is what you almost always do with free agents, you're going to have guaranteed money until he's 35-37 years old. That could work well for the first years of the deal, but you're going to wind up with dead money in later seasons. A Greinke trade, sure, because he was signed for two years at the time. A Sabathia deal? Maybe, it depends on the pitcher, and the prospects. Mr Kluber was a 4th round pick, of the San Diego Padres - Cleveland got him in a 3-team trade. Mr Salazar was signed by and developed by Cleveland, as an international free agent - he spent six years in the minor leagues. Mr Carrasco was signed by the Phillies as an international free agent, he was traded to Cleveland as part of the return for Cliff Lee. Mr Miller was drafted out of high school, but did not sign, he was then drafted 6th overall by Detroit. The Tigers traded him to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera deal, the Marlins then sent him to Boston, who re-signed him as a free agent, then sent him to Baltimore. Miller became a free agent, signing with the Yankees, who then traded him to the Indians for four prospects. Mr Allen was drafted by the Indians, but did not sign, he was then drafted again by the Indians, in the 23rd round. He was in the big leagues THE NEXT SEASON. Mr Shaw was drafted in round two, by the Diamondbacks in 2008, Mr Bauer was drafted 3rd overall by the Diamondbacks, both came to Cleveland in the same 3-team trade, built around Shin-Soo Choo. Mr Tomlin was drafted out of high school, but did not sign. He was then drafted again, by Cleveland, in round 19 - he reached the big leagues at age 26, to date, his largest MLB salary has been 2.25 million, he is signed through 2017, with a team option for 2018, the most he can make in a season will be 3 million dollars. That is the heart of the pitching staff that came within an eyelash of carrying the Indians to a World Series title. Two were elite draft picks, (neither made by the Indians), two were international free agents, one was taken in round two, one was taken in round four, one was taken in round 19, and one was taken in round 23. Only three of them have spent their entire careers with the Indians. There's more than one way, folks. All avenues, all the time, when you're looking for pitching.

I did plenty of stupid things as a young man, but never anything remotely like this. This, perhaps appropriately, was major league stupid. Live and learn, young man, or you will blow your career.

Tyler texted me the day he was released, as did his agent, (agent 39) - I haven't spoken to him yet. I'll reach out to both Tyler and his mom, then I'll post something further.

"Hi Brewers, this is Cubs. Chapman signed somewhere else, let's talk about Thornburg." (just being, "that guy") I don't expect the Brewers to deal Thornburg this winter, but I don't know how the trade market for closers will go either. It got crazy hot during the season this year, so maybe that goes on again in December, I don't know. My bet would be an attempt to deal Thornburg in-season, when teams are more pressed to upgrade.

Yes, this is entirely possible. I don't expect him to make it difficult for himself to go home to LA, but he certainly could do that.

If he becomes a 3.5WAR player he can get into scuffles and miss a few games all he wants. Sure, but what if he's the 1.3 WAR pain in the butt he has been for the last two years? If he's a key guy in the trade, I'd rather keep Ryan Braun for another year.

I wouldn't expect the first deal, because I think the Brewers will get at least one pitching prospect from LA. I wouldn't expect the second deal, because I think the Brewers will keep Villar for now - of the two, I would consider this one the more likely. Who knows if the conversation starts exactly where it left off, but the reports, if accurate, were Braun and money for Puig, McCarthy, and two prospects. I still don't buy Puig as a "big" part of this trade, neither his recent play, his health history, or his attitude warrant a team chasing him. The only time Puig put up numbers lately was when the Dodgers platooned him - that's not a, "must have" for me.

Patrick, my, "problem" with the pitchers you listed is, I think several of them will be picked ahead of Milwaukee. I went with McKay because, I think Wright, Faedo, Houtck and Kendall will all go before the Brewers pick. Bukauskas, don't say, "possible reliever" and top ten pick in the same sentence. Hock, yep, if he takes off this next season. Beck, good question, if he were available, I'm sure the Brewers would consider him with that pick, former choice, or not. Hey Patrick, stay away from middle infielders and outfielders, this board wants none of that in the first round ..... who's your favorite player who might make it to pick nine?

My first guess on the Brewers' top pick: Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville