Ok, maybe I don't understand what Saber-metrics are, but that sure seems like a lot of Saber-metrics. Anyways, even if you look at FIP, his career FIP is 4.57. Again, I'm not seeing how this guy is going to go sub 4.00 next year. At the risk of turning this into a whole saber-metrics debate, I've never really understood FIP anyways. My understanding is that it is used because some people don't like the subjectivity of errors and how they are used to determine earned runs. While I guess I can somewhat understand this argument, I'm not sure I get the logic of completely taking all "non-HR" hits out of the equation. Seems like a hard hit gap double is just as much the pitcher's fault as a HR is, but for some reason that is not included in the equation. I will never understand the argument that says "Well this guys Fip suggests that his ERA should have been lower". No, his ERA is what it is. ERA and Fip are two separate equations. Two guys pitch 7 innings. Each give up 3 earned runs. Each pitcher walks and K's the same amount of hitters. However, one pitcher gives up 5 hits including a 3 run HR and the other gives up gives up 8 hits and no HRs. Per Fip, the pitcher that gave up 8 hits is a better pitcher and should have a lower ERA. I don't get it.