And That
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Everything posted by And That
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Current/likely/best-case is confusing and complicated?
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Didn't see this... I'm not trying to prove any point. Braun might be better, might well be worse. I don't really even care that much about it. But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Worse isn't even really defined. So that's a blatantly false (you're fond of using the word controversial, apparently) and unprovable statement.
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Braun was really only ever elite for a few years. If he's healthy, all it would take is a few very good years to surpass what he's done recently. Notice how they used the word "likely."
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It's not controversial, it's stating an absolute as fact. Again, there's no way of knowing. Over a long enough timeline, yes, it is very likely a player will get worse as he gets older. It's almost a given that 97 year old Braun will be worse than 32 year old Braun. But in the short-term, it is unreasonable to suggest that a 36 year old will definitely, assuredly be worse than a 32 year old. Also, what exactly is "worse" - what if he is cumulatively more productive in the next 5 years than he was in the previous 5 years? Is he still worse if he tails off at the end? Edit: To clarify the last sentance... Braun's fWAR the previous 5 seasons: 2.8, .7, 1.6, 7.3, 7.1 = 19.5 WAR, or 3.9 WAR per year. What if his next five seasons turned out to be: 6.0, 5.6, 4.5, 2.5, 1? = 19.6 WAR, or 3.92 WAR per year. Not completely out of the realm of possibility, especially with him moving back to left field. Or if traded to an AL team/the NL adopts it, DH. Which is worse? Or, if you prefer, he has a 2.8 fWAR last year. Same hypothetical next five seasons as above. Is he worse just because he's worse the last two years? Or isn't it a net gain for the Brewers (or whichever club he's playing for)?
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Stating it as a fact ("will") is incorrect, yes. Unless you can prove that all 31 year old players get worse as 32 year old players. Plausible, sure. Will? No way of knowing.
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First, they aren't "dropping" $20 million a year. There's a bunch of deferred money. Already been discussed. Second, of course it's not our money, but the ultimate goal of LLC ownership is generally not yearly cash flow (except maybe the Wilpons), it is increasing the valuation of the business. How does having a $30-$40 mil payroll help the long term valuation of the team, if the only reason payroll is getting that low is just because? They should only be trading Braun for commensurate value. Also, if the Brewers turn a huge profit, there's a huge tax hit for all of the owners. Sometimes it's actually better for the owners of the LLC to have the LLC make less income. To that end, the Brewers probably have a baseline payroll they'd like to maintain based on attendance forecasts. We obviously are not privy to their books, but based on attendance of 2 million, I'd be surprised if it were as low as $30 mil.
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[nihilism]All players are valueless because they play on teams.[/nihilism]
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The Brewers are in all likelihood going to have to eat some or most of the back end of the contract in a trade (and maybe even un-defer the deferrals to facilitate waiving his no-trade clause), making it more or less a future sunk cost. Based on the assumption that they're going to pay for him to some degree whether they have him or not, I don't know how much Braun's potential production in 2019 and 2020 really matters to the Brewers, in terms of value. What does matter to the Brewers right now is, he's coming off back surgery and they have to see how his thumb holds up. Much for the same reason no one has yet traded for Lucroy, other teams want to see Braun produce when healthy. Right now, no one has. Therefore if Braun does show he is still the same guy he was last year, his trade value goes up once he plays. If another team thinks that Braun will produce at a high level for a few years, they'll pay the price for that production, assuming the Brewers shoulder some (most?) of the responsibility for when that production is likely to tail off. The Brewers should absolutely not trade Braun just to trade him. That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.
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How so? If Braun basically repeats his 2015 performance in 2016, which is certainly not impossible and may even be likely, his contract looks even better next offseason. Figuring in deferred money, he's being paid about market rate this year ($15 mil), and he might be paid less than market next year.
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https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/ -2018 option vests at $13M if Garza 1) has 110 starts in 2014-17, 2) has 115 innings in 2017 and 3) is not on the disabled list at end of 2017 season -club holds $5M option for 2018 if it does not vest at $13M -club may exercise 2018 option at $1M if Garza spends more than 130 days on disabled list in any 183-day period from 2014 to 2017
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Why do the Brewers need to get rid of Braun's contract? At this point they're going to end up with one of the lowest few payrolls in baseball. As long as he's providing more value that what he would return in a trade, there's no incentive.
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That seems fair. The Brewers' depth is impressive but they lack ultra high-end guys (only Arcia grades out at 60 or above).
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That's certainly possible if they decide they want to retain as much depth as possible. The no-options squad of Nieuwenhuis/Liriano/Flores (plus Walsh) could all conceivably be opening day Brewers that way. That said, Santana would probably have to have a very poor spring not to break camp with the club. I still think Nieuwenhuis is the odd man out, Walsh makes the club ostensibly as the 5th outfielder, and Broxton's available option works against him and he goes to AAA.
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Given that the Orioles are notorious sticklers for physicals (they just re-did Gallardo's deal because of a minor shoulder issue), maybe they wouldn't have interest in Braun. Tough to say.
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Why? All 5'11 of Carlos Santana just put up a 2.4 fWAR season being the Indians' primary first baseman last year, with decent returns on his defensive acumen. The idea that shorter guys can't be good first baseman is always stated as fact, but I can't recall any specific statistics backing that up. I think taller guys tend to play 1B more so because it is more difficult for them to play other positions than it is because they are particularly good at playing first. There may be physical advantages to being taller at first base, but I certainly do not think that being 5'10 precludes someone from being a good first baseman. Why would it?
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I thought your argument was that he was too short to play 1B, which was proven to be incorrect. So your argument actually is that players who are short should not play first base unless they can hit 50 HRs (once)? Someone else already mentioned this, but Flores' career ISO in AAA is 167, which is better than what Prince managed last year (158). No one is saying that Flores has any sort of chance to be as productive as Fielder in his prime, but to write Flores off because he's 5'10 is strange.
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Yep. Capuano, Hader, and Jimenez are in camp as NRIs. Except Jimenez isn't in camp yet. -
Flores was on at least one ballot for Baseball America's top 100 prospects, which is more than Reed can say. Which is also to say, Flores has value, and would to any team.
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I'd rather have Cecchini playing in AAA. He was so bad last year, I think it would be easier to instill confidence in Colorado Springs than against MLB pitching.
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Nolin being out of options coupled with his big velocity drop last year makes me rather "meh" on this claim. Have to think his chances at making the club as things stand now is pretty slim, and he'll have to be exposed to waivers on his way out the door at the end of March. But, better than having an empty 40-man spot.
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The claim of Nolin also doubles the number of LHPs on the Brewers' 40-man.
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Still working on it. Not forgotten.
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Thanks for that - extremely interesting. Sure seems like an improvement over a guy most well known for smoking cigars. "I'd rather (an 18 year old) own 2 pitches, as opposed to rent 3 or 4."
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Strawman. No one is saying that. But if you actually think that's what everyone else is saying, I guess I don't know where else to go with this. You are more than free to believe what you like.
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Twins interested in Will Smith
And That replied to And That's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't understand... are you trying to say that one year of Aoki is worth Kepler?
