And That

I will be there on Friday.

It's a good thing he's not pitching against the Royals, then.

I would assume Brandon Macias plays 2B, or one of Martinez/Jenkins occasionally. Maybe even Berard. I refuse to think about the 2B situation in Maryvale any longer. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

It is beginning to be slightly bothersome that we haven't heard a peep about Jed Bradley. Remember, the guy we picked 15th overall, Doug? Unprotected pick, yah?

Bradley Blanks made his Brewers organizational debut in the Brevard game. Hunter Morris had a really odd game - 2 walks and 2 stolen bases. The odds of that happening again this season are about a hundred million quadrillion to one. Young Efrain Nieves continues to thrive in relief. He's not a starting prospect any more, but he handles lefties pretty well.

Arcia is expected to slide to second or third base down the line as his body fills out.

Kevin Berard is now listed as a 1B, FWIW. He was listed as a catcher last year, and has played second base as well. He's fast and athletic - odd to stick him at first. Demetrius McKelvie'd.

Jason Rogers will be rehabbing with Helena. Still working back from a broken hand.

Mike Walker seems like a really nice, laid-back guy. Great interview.

The Brewers are the Cerveceros... shouldn't the DSL Brewers be the Cerveceritos?

It's possible, but quite unlikely. I was going to compare his strikeout rate with previous pitchers who finished the season with his 11.8 K/9, but starting pitchers rarely strike out that many guys. The last qualifying starting pitcher with even an 11.0 K/9 was Kerry Wood in 2003 (11.35). The last guy to eclipse 11.8 over a full season was Randy Johnson in 2001, with a 13.41 K/9. So instead of looking at trying to find a number of direct comparisons with Greinke, let's look at MLB qualifying starting pitchers who finished in the top 5 in K/9 the last five years, along with their ERAs. 2010Tim Lincecum: 9.79 K/9, 3.43 ERA Jon Lester: 9.74 K/9, 3.25 ERA Yovani Gallardo: 9.73 K/9, 3.84 ERA Jonathan Sanchez: 9.54 K/9, 3.07 ERA Francisco Liriano: 9.44 K/9, 3.62 ERA 2009Tim Lincecum: 10.42 K/9, 2.48 ERA Justin Verlander: 10.09 K/9, 3.45 ERA Jon Lester: 9.96 K/9, 3.41 ERA Yovani Gallardo: 9.89 K/9, 3.73 ERA Javier Vasquez: 9.77 K/9, 2.87 ERA 2008Tim Lincecum: 10.51 K/9, 2.62 ERA Edinson Volquez: 9.46 K/9, 3.21 ERA A.J. Burnett: 9.39 K/9, 4.07 ERA Chad Billingsley: 9.01 K/9, 3.14 ERA CC Sabathia: 8.93 K/9, 2.70 ERA 2007Erik Bedard: 10.93 K/9, 3.16 ERA Scott Kazmir: 10.41 K/9, 3.48 ERA Jake Peavy: 9.67 K/9, 2.54 ERA Johan Santana: 9.66 K/9, 3.33 ERA A.J. Burnett: 9.56 K/9, 3.75 ERA 2006Jake Peavy: 9.56 K/9, 4.09 ERA Johan Santana: 9.44 K/9, 2.77 ERA Orlando Hernandez: 9.09 K/9, 4.66 ERA Carlos Zambrano: 8.83 K/9, 3.41 ERA Brett Myers: 8.59 K/9, 3.91 ERA That's a mean 3.36 ERA, midpoint 3.41 ERA, min 2.48, max 4.66. If Greinke finishes in the top 5 in K/9 (i.e., he keeps "striking people out" at around or at a slightly lesser clip than he is now), it would seem quite likely that his ERA would drop. How much? I dunno. ZiPS has Greinke finishing with 167.2 IP, by the way. You need 162 IP to qualify for the above lists.

...speaking of movement, here's the movement on Greinke's 4-seamer (and his other pitches... the green one is the 4-seam fastball, again from FanGraphs) from '09-'11, in order. http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/92e251c43f936def9982340fa059a27d9e46432.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/00725344389d9d119c62140a3b2f68e90ca6e7b.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/5ba3566841e69c7ad8b997412e0055f5ab91670.jpg You tell me. Just for reference... FA=4-seam, CU=curve, SL=slider, CH=change-up, FC=cutter, FT=2-seam

Greinke's 4-seam fastball heat map from '09-'11. You tell me if you see a difference. (This is the view from behind home, so the right-handed batter stands on the left, left-handed batter on the right. Strike zone is the box. All found at FanGraphs here.) First v RHB: http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/cfe1554c95da9c27369d613c5f3535c0294b2bc.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/de835767463c97ffdbf0977226299396c6c4f3d.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/2aa25634cd9d3d269e82e8dd0eb0fc38ee09ee3.jpg Then v LHB: http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/18425824b7940d509c329143e8b0f20cbca2109.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/f07357a441ae92ded37795a92c53f3b4a27d099.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/d1a15e4296de9823f1ed87da8a4cdfd76d88014.jpg I'm not seeing anything obvious here that would tell me his location is significantly different from the past two years, or that he seems to be grooving more fastballs. Could have to do with movement...

I didn't type "somewhat" - I typed "somewhere." What I mean is that, my expectation is that he will be above average, but I'm not sure if that will turn out to be "somewhat" above average or ace-like. Which, in any case, will probably make him one of the better pitchers in baseball if he stays healthy until the end of 2012.

Until proven otherwise...Thankfully, we have web sites on the internet with career statistics. Here's one. His 3-year and career totals indicate that he posted above average ERAs. He's also K'd a lot of people, so you're right about that. To which my guess is you'll respond: "But it's true this year in his 9 starts that he's had this year!" To which I respond, it's only 50 innings and I'll take the larger sample with more and completely relevant data as better proof.

One more thing... there is a significant difference between "hope" and "expect." I think that's what getting confused here. I'm sure that most Brewers fans hoped Greinke would have a better ERA to this point in the season. I sure hoped he would, and I hope that his ERA improves. I am hopeful that it will. Personally, I hope that our pitchers go out and throw shutouts every time. That would be awesome. Expecting things when there are small samples involved - and yes, 50 IP is a small sample as it relates to a pitcher's true talent level - will often disappoint you if your expectations are too narrow. I did not expect Greinke to repeat his Cy Young caliber season. I did not expect Greinke to injure himself in a pickup basketball game. I did expect him to have a 70:9 K/BB ratio and certainly did not expect him to have that K/BB ratio paired with a 5.23 ERA. I did not have any expectations about where he would be after 9 starts, or 7 starts, or 3 starts and I do not have any precise further expectations about where he will be after 10 starts, 11 starts, 14.5 starts or 40 starts into his Brewers career. If I have any expectation about Greinke it's that, if he is healthy, that he will be a capable and somewhere above average pitcher over the long term. Where long term means, at least the length of his current contract. I can't say whether or not he's met that expectation yet because he's not anywhere close to meeting my timeline requirement. Still a ways to go.

Honestly, I don't care what his ERA is through x number of starts to begin the season if there's nothing alarming about how he's pitching, and there's not. It's just how it's worked out so far. Odds are, he'll be better from here on out. The point you really either seem to be missing or glossing over is that it is very difficult, at best, to "expect" anything out of any pitcher for 50 random innings to begin a season. This is part of the reason that relief pitchers are so hard to pin down. Sure, better pitchers will tend to pitch better in general, but plenty of awesome pitchers have produced poor results (at least via ERA) at the beginning of the year, or in any 50 random innings. If Greinke had allowed only 25 ER on the year as opposed to 31, he'd have a 4.22 ERA right now and I'm guessing this thread wouldn't exist. And it wouldn't exist because of 6 meager runs in 9 starts. A few runs here, and a few runs there. How's that for expectations? I don't think Greinke's start is worth gnashing teeth over, but clearly you disagree. Whatever - be disappointed all you want. But not everybody has to be, despite your beliefs. "High ERA, high K pitcher," hilarious indeed.

Why can't anyone disagree? I disagree. Look, I just did. Someone else did, too. We have a quorum of disagreement. He's pitched just fine for the most part, made a few bad pitches that have been hammered and pitched into some bad luck with crappy defense. I am not concerned. Gallardo had a 5.11 ERA after 8 starts, 4.88 after 9. His sky seemed to stop falling shortly thereafter. Or has he been disappointing too? Edit: Here is my Disciples of Uecker thought on the Greinke situation.

No, nothing official. When they do, you'll see it here.

No one said it did. As long as we're being random, how about Marcum's first 9 starts in 2006? Or 2007? Or CC Sabathia in 2008? Then we could have seen 10-12 starts between Marco Estrada and Frankie de la Cruz, or God forbid, Mark Rogers. As sweet as that would have been, I'm not with you on the de la Estrada bandwagon. Garza has a career ERA of 3.96. Greinke has a career ERA of 3.85. Both of which may shock you to know, are better than average. High ERA... the hell?

Lincecum: 1Halladay: 2 (though he's been in the mid-4's 3 times) Sabathia: 3 (including 2008, his age 27 year, just like Greinke's this year... remember that year?) Verlander: 1 Greinke: 2

According to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Brewers have signed their 20th round pick, RHP Brandon Williamson out of Super Regional eliminee Dallas Baptist and their 25th round pick, C/1B Parker Berberet out of another Super Regionally eliminated team, Oregon State.

Brock Kjeldgaard not in the Manatees' lineup tonight. Gonna assume he's been promoted to the Hall of Fame.

Why are you on a ledge over 53 mediocre innings from Greinke? Virtually all pitchers go through this at times. For Zack, just happens to be at the beginning of the year. After happening to miss almost all of spring training. Not a big deal. Certainly not ledge-worthy, at least in my book of ledges.

As noted in the thread, they're a game and a half out of the first half Wild Card spot.