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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    Then again, if the Brewers are bullish on him, they won't have a shot at him next year because if he performs and given how the Brewers are playing, he might well be gone before they pick in the first round in '18. It might be a worthwhile risk, given where he could be a year from now.
  2. And That
    The #1 pick in the 2016 draft is in A ball at the same age Trent Clark was last year, and currently has a lower wRC+ than Clark. Should the Phillies be worried about Moniak? I don't think so. Players develop differently. Some don't develop at all. It would be great if Ray had a 1300 OPS, but I don't think it's too worrying that he doesn't. I'd be worried if he was hitting like a dumpster fire. And I've heard crickets about fundamental scouting worries regarding Ray. He looked maybe over anxious at the plate early, but I haven't seen that recently. I would urge you to be patient with him. I think patience will be rewarded in this case.
  3. And That
    That was not the intent. Word parsing clarified above.
  4. And That
    I've seen somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of both Clark's and Ray's PAs this year, and I can attest to seeing the production. They both look better than most of the other players on the field on most nights. That their batting averages aren't 30 points higher or whatever level is deemed acceptable is transatory. It's not an issue in my head. The talent is there, they hit the ball hard, and they work counts. wRC+ picks that up. The scouting backs it up. Are there development hiccups? Sure. But they are producing on the field, despite what Hall of Famers may think.
  5. And That
    What I except from top 10 picks is production at some point at the big league level. I don't really have any expectations seven weeks into a minor league season. So my assessment of Ray and Clark is that they have been above average to this very point in time this year. Not that that really means a whole lot. The fact that Ray has gone from about 80 wRC+ to 106 wRC+ in a period of 3 or 4 games should tell you that there's just not enough data to form any sort of conclusion make a meaningful appraisal about a player at this point. Edit: And yes, Ray has 132 PX score, which is linear weighted power adjusted for league. More or less the power portion of wRC+, and on the same scale.
  6. And That
    At least for me, wRC+ is just as easy to look up as OPS/OPS+. wOBA and OPS are generally correlated decently, but wOBA does a much better job of recognizing the difference in value of individual events. wRC+ improves on that with its environmental contextualization. And once you get used to it, isn't >100=above average and <100=below average more intuitive than the abstraction of whatever .300 or 800 or 1.279 means? I think it is. But I might be wrong.
  7. And That
    RHP Angel Ventura has been sent back down to Biloxi after making what turned out to be a spot start with the Sky Sox. The Shuckers also tweet that Ventura's spot comes at the expense of RHP Jon Perrin, who hits the Biloxi DL. Once Tyler Cravy reports to the Sky Sox, Colorado Springs will need to make another roster move to get back down to 25 players.
  8. And That
    I'll bite - what stat is being cherry picked? My preferred statistic for comparing players is wRC+. In addition to weighting offensive outcomes more closely to the impact that they have on the outcome of baseball games than does OPS, it is controlled for park and league factors. For me, it's easily the most non-strain-y way to describe how a player is doing offensively. If I see 800 OPS, I have to consider where the OPS is coming from. An 800 OPS in the PCL is usually not very impressive. An 800 OPS in the FSL is usually really impressive. I don't have to do that with wRC+ - it's built in. OPS does not have the desired context to compare players in any fine detail. A .280 batting average in any context is nearly meaningless, and RBIs are flat meaningless. Edit: As to the seven week "excuse" of sample size, last year on this date Isan Diaz was hitting .205/.291/.314. And 5/24/16 was even worse! Edit 2: This is a fun game - last year on today's date, Lewis Brinson was hitting .228/.275/.423.
  9. And That
    If Clark's batting average were 40 points higher, but his OBP and SLG were the same, would he still be "meh"? What I'm driving at here is that both Clark and Ray, whether you want to use OPS, wOBA, or wRC+, are literally playing above average baseball relative to their league. I can't square how above average translates into "meh" or "less than impressive" over a seven week stretch. The defense for that seems to be that extremely productive major league players played better in A ball over a full season, or that there's some OPS line of demarcation that they need to cross. It's fine to set extremely high expectations for all the top guys in the Brewers' farm, but it is important to realize that players who do not meet the loftiest of expectations can still be extremely valuable members of the major league club down the road. The Brewers don't need to and will not develop a steady stream of superstar talent. The goal is to develop a stream of talent (full stop) to pipeline to Milwaukee, and both Clark and Ray are still very much a part of it. And they're both, objectively speaking, having a good start to the season. And so is Phillips.
  10. And That
    "Year" being the key. Checking my calendar, we are still 8 days short of June on this one. I have no idea how well any of those guys were doing 42 games into their various years. Mostly because it's not important. Also not sure what you mean by "explained by wRC+" - what statistic should players be limited to when describing them? I think wRC+ does a lot better job than OPS, if for no other reason than it neutralizes run environment.
  11. And That
    Putting aside .280/.350/.500 being arbitrary, do you want them to be hitting that now, at seven weeks into the season, or do you want them to be hitting that at the end of the season? Or should they be hitting that at any given seven week stretch within the season? Can offensive environment be factored into it? Or put another way, these dots represent the number of games of Carolina's schedule, and the X is where we are now: ...........................................X................................................................................................ Is it fair to say someone is "less than impressive" at this point in the season? As to the .280/.350/.500 slash line, the Brewers currently have exactly six players in their well-performing and well-regarded minor league organization with an OPS >850 and PA >100. Five of those six play in Colorado Springs, and one of them is Eric Sogard.
  12. And That
    Eric Longenhagen has his FanGraphs draft board up. Rankings through 50 so far. Most notably, he has David Peterson at #8 overall, which is 8 spots higher than anyone else has him (that I've seen). Could be that Patrick's idea of the Brewers drafting Peterson comes to fruition after all. Actually, that brings up an interesting question given the DL Hall news earlier... Patrick, if the Brewers had pre-draft deals in place with both Hall and Peterson at #9, and they were both available, which one of those two do you think they should pick?
  13. And That
    So looking at just the Brewers' roster, players with a lower wRC+ than Trent Clark in advanced-A ball: Hernan Perez Manny Pina Jett Bandy Jesus Aguilar Keon Broxton Jonathan Villar Pina, Bandy, Aguilar, and Broxton were all older than Clark in advanced-A. Orlando Arcia and Ryan Braun both had wRC+s in the ballpark, just a little higher. Clark is also hurt by the fact that we're all of 7 weeks into the season.
  14. And That
    If Seth Romero is still there, you'd have to think about him. Maybe a high schooler like Hans Crouse, Bubba Thompson, Trevor Rogers, or Mark Vientos. Or a JC guy like Brendon Little or Nate Pearson. Not sure how far you'd have to go over slot with any of those guys, though. Tough to tell at this point who will still be there at 34. It's conceivable Shane Baz and/or Jo Adell could still be there. I wouldn't take Adell at 9, but at 34 that's a pretty easy pick.
  15. And That
    Hall has been slowly slipping since February, and much like Enlow I believe the reason for slipping is not that he's regarded any less, but others have been squeaking by him. If you would have told me 3 months ago that the Brewers could get Hall underslot at #9, I would have been ecstatic, and I still would be thrilled.
  16. And That
    Beloit Bounces Rattlers 12-2 Wisconsin opens long road trip with a loss By Chris Mehring / Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Photo: Wisconsin Timber Rattlers) Wisconsin Boxscore Not much good happened on either side of the ball in a lopsided loss. The lone bright spot on offense was catcher Mario Feliciano's double and walk. Joantgel Segovia had Wisconsin's other hit, a single. The Rattlers did manage six walks, though they racked up another 13 strikeouts as well. Gilbert Lara took the golden sombrero. Tom Jankins and Dan Brown both had outings on the mound to forget. Luke Barker's return to the roster was a good one, though. Two scoreless, hitless innings from Barker, with four punch outs. Wisconsin Game Log Wisconsin's best chance to take the lead and then some: Wisconsin Top of the 3rd Pitching Change: Dakota Chalmers replaces Xavier Altamirano. Gilbert Lara called out on strikes. Caleb Whalen bunt grounds out, catcher Collin Theroux to first baseman Miguel Mercedes. Demi Orimoloye walks. Joantgel Segovia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Martin. Demi Orimoloye to 3rd. Mario Feliciano walks. Joantgel Segovia to 2nd. With Monte Harrison batting, Demi Orimoloye scores on a balk. Joantgel Segovia advances to 3rd on a balk. Mario Feliciano advances to 2nd on a balk. Monte Harrison strikes out swinging, catcher Collin Theroux to first baseman Miguel Mercedes.
  17. And That
    Define "less-than-impressive." Using Clark or Ray* as a baseline, "less-than-impressive" would still include above average players. (*Or at least it will for Ray after tonight's game. He's literally average in terms of wRC+ right now.) And that's just using wRC+. Clark and Ray both walk much more than average. Ray has posted well above average power. Both have well above average speed. As for contact, they both have a 90 CT+, which is below average but not by a lot. Clark has posted just above average linear weighted power for the Carolina League this year.
  18. And That
    I haven't seen any exit velocities on Clark, though anecdotally, a week or two ago the Carolina radio guy said Clark had "that sound off the bat" that only elite hitters have. Also anecdotally, he's hit some of the harder balls I've seen this year, though most of them are line drives and not lofted well.
  19. And That
    He is eligible to return after 50 of Carolina's games, yes, but he's also injured after taking a batted ball off of the hand in a live batting practice. He'll be out until the end of July or thereabouts.
  20. And That
    From a few days ago, Jason Churchill have Brewers taking Baz at #9.
  21. And That
    I get the feeling that the Brewers want to keep the Clark/Diaz/Gatewood/Ray group together, so there's a possibility they all spend most of, if not all of, the year in Carolina. Maybe Ray excluded. I don't think any of them are beating down the door for promotion. With Gatewood, for instance, there's still a lot of swing and miss in his approach, and to some extent his success at the plate has been BABIP-driven. I want to see what happens when the line drives start to drop off. Dubon I wouldn't rush, either. He hasn't gotten back to hitting with the power he found last year in AA. I'd like to see Burnes and Supak both bumped. Those are the only two top 50 prospect type guys I can think who might be imminently close to a promotion, though.
  22. And That
    I actually like what I've seen from Nottingham so far. He has absolutely made strides defensively. His footwork behind the plate is markedly improved, which has lead to better blocking and better mechanics on his throws to second. Still far from a finished product, but I have been impressed on the work he's put in. He's also improved his walk rate and cut his K rate by 1/3 from last year, from 30% to 20%. He's hitting more fly balls than ever, and has had a silly number of flyballs not fall in. At one point he was like 0-15 on fly balls, which is completely nutso bad luck. His BABIP is still deflated. Important to remember as well that Nottingham is just 22. He's 8 months younger than Max McDowell. Still has plenty of time.
  23. And That
    Clark and Isan Diaz have very similar approaches at the plate. They both noticeably watch the ball all the way in and both have quick hands so as to make hard contact even when they recognize a little late. I would agree that Clark needs to get more aggressive at the plate, similar to where Diaz is at now. Isan is more willing to swing at close pitches than Trent. As such, Diaz swings and misses more often, but also swings and hits more often. That is a trade-off Clark is going to have to learn to live with going forward. Clark also needs to get better at hitting where the ball is pitched - he often will take pitches he can't make hard contact on the pull side with. I would also contest that Clark is a "glove" guy - he takes some truly hideous routes to fly balls, especially when he plays in center. That's something he can work on, but he's not 100% natural out there. All of that said, he is an elite talent due to the potential in his bat. I wouldn't be too put off by what a 20 year old is doing in his first crack at advanced-A ball. Especially after missing about half of his A-ball season, and playing injured for most of the other half.
  24. And That
    The latest BA list has Enlow at #27. This is from about 3 weeks ago. I have Tristan Beck at #45.
  25. And That
    New aggregate ranking with a few updates: 1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS 2. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF 3. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP 4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF 5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP 6. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP 7. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF 8. Austin Beck, HS, OF 9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B 10. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP 11. DL Hall, HS, LHP 12. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP 13. Jo Adell, HS, OF 14. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF 15. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP 16. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP 17. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP 18. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP 19. Shane Baz, HS, RHP 20. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP 21. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF 22. Tanner Houck, 4yr, RHP 23. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP 24. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B 25. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS 26. Brendon Little, JC, RHP 27. Heliot Ramos, HS, OF 28. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP 29. Bubba Thompson, HS, OF 30. Nick Allen, HS, SS 31. Matt Sauer, HS, RHP 32. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP 33. Evan White, 4yr, 1B/OF 34. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP 35. Drew Waters, HS, OF 36. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP 37. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP 38. Quentin Holmes, HS, OF 39. Mark Vientos, HS, SS/3B 40. Garrett Mitchell, HS, OF At the Brewers slots for the first five round, I currently have: 9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B 34. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP 46. Conner Uselton, HS, OF 84. Landon Leach, HS (Canada), RHP 114. Kyle Jacobsen, HS, OF 144. Jayson Gonzalez, HS, 3B
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