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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    I like this idea, though not sure Peralta would be quite enough. Guess they'd have to send a Michael Reed/Kyle Wren type prospect along with Peralta.
  2. And That
    At least he's having it soon as opposed to dinking around attempting to rehab it, at which point it seems the player misses closer to 2 years when it turns out they have to go under the knife anyway. Gain a Williams, lose a Williams.
  3. And That
    Just to note, Lopez and Williams were optioned to AA. Everyone else (I believe) was optioned to AAA.
  4. And That
    Like Chris Carter?
  5. And That
    FWIW:
  6. And That
    Patrick, I honestly didn't even look at the rest of that mock. Perfectly happy to live in a fantasy land where that situation plays out! Thanks for the scouting report on Hall. I like Heatherly more, too, though would be perfectly happy with either. Every time I watch Heatherly it looks like he's just playing catch while he's pitching. Such a simple delivery.
  7. And That
    I like seeing Lillis with the Wisconsin group. Well above average GB rate last year right out of HS, and a LHP who isn't a soft tosser.
  8. And That
    Well played.
  9. And That
    I saw this mock draft the other day, that has the Brewers taking Hall at 9 and Heatherly at 34 - that would be great. And another HS LHP I like, Jake Eder, was still on the board at 46.
  10. And That
    Here is Baseball America's first mock draft of the year, by John Manuel (top 10 picks only). Really like the Brewers' pick.
  11. And That
    Catcher offense tends to develop more slowly, which is why it's common to see guys like David Ross, A.J. Ellis, Ryan Hannigan, Jose Molina, etc., not have success with regular playing time until their late 20's/early 30's. The theory being that it takes so much work to be a good defensive catcher, and catchers generally have fewer at-bats on top of that. Even guys who aren't big offensive forces can have long career starting later than usual. Henry Blanco debuted as a 27 year old for the Rockies in 1999, then proceeded to play for 14 (!) more years. Which is not to say that Pina will find it all of the sudden, just that there is some historical context to say that he might.
  12. And That
    Broxton is going to have so much more value at the end of this season than he does now, assuming he produces at the plate like many of us think he will. If he's traded next December, the team that trades for him will still control his contract through the 2022 season - 5 seasons! That's valuable even with just decent offensive production and plus defense. The poster above, adambr2, is right. No one will give the Brewers the value that Broxton has right now. There's still a lot of uncertainty of what he can produce, so the Brewers will continue assuming the production risk (at almost no cost). If Keon goes nuts and is hitting like .280/.380/.500 at the deadline, perhaps the team can start to get closer to realizing his trade value, but even then I think it behooves them to wait until the offseason.
  13. And That
    As I've said all along, given that Susac has two options and Bandy just one, it makes more sense to use one of Susac's options than it does to burn Bandy's final option. Pina has the club made either way.
  14. And That
    Again, his minor league career wRC+ is 109, which is above average. He has been young for his leagues, and has hit well over the course of his career.
  15. And That
    Yes, he can be placed on the 60-day DL at any time, provided the 40-man roster is full. He might technically have to be recalled (not to report) first.
  16. And That
    They have Dubon, but after that the depth drops off pretty quickly. Neither Diaz nor Lara are generally thought to be shortstops long term (2B, 3B respectively). Beyond that there are backup types like Rivera, Blake Allemand, and Luis Aviles. J.C. Carmona has upside, but he hasn't had a pro plate appearance yet.
  17. And That
    If they place him on the 60-day, they have to pay him full MLB salary, and he accrues service time. Could be they surmised burning an option was the lesser of two evils? If they want to avoid placing him on the 60-day all year, it's probably doable. They also have until a few weeks into the season to reverse their decision, as the option only takes effect after 20 days into the regular season.
  18. And That
    16 ABs in spring training should absolutely have little to no effect on roster decision making, but it is unfortunate that it appears Nieuwenhuis has not fixed his struggles with pitches high in the zone. Literally all you have to do to get the guy out is throw him high fastballs. He'll swing at them, and miss most of the time. It's so frustrating to watch. That said, he appears to me to play good defense, and he finished with a positive WAR from BP,BR, and FG so he's doing at least a few things right. And I finally learned to spell his last name so I'd be sad to see all that hard work go to naught.
  19. And That
    Arcia's career minor league wRC+ is 109, which is not only pretty good, it is pretty good while generally being much younger than the competition. While I don't think there's any reasonable expectation that he turns into a Carlos Correa type hitter, I'd bet that his elite hand/eye coordination will keep him from being a Daniel Descalso/Alexei Amarista type hitter, either.
  20. And That
    The Brewers' Player Development Twitter account posted the complete minor league spring training roster. Names missing among those players who saw action in stateside ball last year, and whom last we knew had contracts with the Brewers: Wilson Adams Johel Atencio Jomar Cortes Junior Flores Emerson Gibbs Yosmer Leal (did not play stateside, but was kept on AZL roster, apparently injured) Chris McFarland Julio Mendez Chad Nading (indy league signing this offseason - update: never did sign) Ignacio Otano Nic Pierre (ended season in DSL after rare in-season demotion from AZL) Nicol Valderrey The only player who played all season in the DSL who is on the spring training roster is Jose Sibrian. We'll try to track down what's going on with the guys on the list.
  21. And That
    Has Brinson looked considerably more filled out to anyone else this spring? I could be wrong, but I seem to remember him being closer to Keon Broxton in build than he is.
  22. And That
    Agreed - they should be getting at least commensurate value back. Which is the problem with trading Guerra. There may or may not be a lot of value there, but teams are going to be incredibly hesitant to pay a premium for a 32 year old pitcher with an extremely limited track record and an out pitch that can do significant arm damage. If the Red Sox were offering Groome right now, the Brewers should probably do the deal as quickly as possible before the Red Sox realize what they are doing.
  23. And That
    I don't think you're getting Groome for Guerra, either, as part of a package deal or even just straight up. At least not at this point. If Guerra is healthy and has a 3.00 ERA in mid-July, could revisit that point. If I had to guess, right now Guerra might be worth somewhere in the Sam Travis-Mike Shawaryn-Jhonathan Diaz package range.
  24. And That
    The starters were 17th in ERA, 24th in FIP, 24th in xFIP, 20th in WAR, 28th in K/BB. There's not a single thing they were even average in last year. The problem with that analysis is that those metrics have the following year-to-year correlations: ERA: 0.38 FIP: 0.59 xFIP: 0.68 WAR: 0.61 K/BB: 0.63 So performances within those metrics from one year to the next don't correlate particularly well. The same group of pitchers could perform quite differently from year x to year y. GB% has a better correlation, at 0.85. Brewers starters were above average at producing ground balls, and with improved infield defense this year that should bode well. On the other hand, Swinging Strike %, has a 0.81 correlation and the Brewers starters produced the lowest swinging strike rate in baseball last year. Also, technically "17th in ERA" doesn't say anything about being above average or below average, it just means they were 17th out of 30. The arithmetic mean could lie around the 13th best team, or the 19th best team. FWIW, Fangraphs has the Brewers starters at about 2.5-3 wins below MLB median this coming season.
  25. And That
    Depends what the 50-40 consists of - is it a strong 50 wins (starting pitching improvement, across the board offensive contributions), or has the club had quite a bit of luck to get there (i.e., they've been outscored by fair margin, or run scoring does not match predicted team output based on underlying stats, etc.). I doubt the Brewers would be categorically opposed to trading prospect depth to help the situation at the MLB level, nor should they be. For all of the depth the Brewers have, they won't be able to keep all of it and at some point decisions will need to be made on which players the organization is willing to part with. I think this coming season is a little early to start making those decisions, but I don't think it's unreasonably early. It also depends on what they're getting back. If it's an MLB they can control for a few years, it might be worth a prospect or two whom they would consider redundant.
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