Matt Breen

Toffey ranked as #19 in the Oakland farm system by MLB Pipeline. Wahl is a reliever, and wasn't ranked in the Top 25. However, he's been awesome at AAA this year. The $1M International bonus slot will give the Mets another shot at a prospect. Not a big haul for the Mets.

That's pretty close. With the season Realmuto is having, I'd project him at right around 4.3 WAR per season through 2020. That would put his value at 103.735 million. He's going to get big, big arbiration raises so I'd guess he'll end up making about 21 million from now through the end of 2020. I'd put his surplus value in the 80-82 million range. If I'm the Marlins, I wouldn't consider selling him for anything less than 70 million. I have the following surplus values on the player's mentioned: -Hiura = 43.73 million (#26-#70 hitter) -Woodruff = 14.66 million (between #75-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect) -Ortiz = 11.45 million (top 10 organizational prospect) -Henry = 4.01 million (between role player prospect and fringe prospect) Total value = 73.85 million No way the Brewer's get to Realmuto's value without including Hiura. If he's not in the deal, the deal doesn't work. JosephC, thanks for doing this. I was actually going to ask you to do your surplus value magic, so thanks. I'm happy my proposal wasn't too crazy in any direction.

Yeah, you don't want to see how many touchdowns we gave up. Yikes, it was ugly.

Nice call. Vaughn hit 33 HR and stole 36 bases at Beloit as a 21-year old. It was his second pro season. The guy was a beast that year. 33 HR, 105 RBI, 36 SB, 102 BB, .305 BA, 1,018 OPS. He hit 28 HR and stole 22 bases the next year - his next closest to a 30/30 year.

Bucks should go after Kyle Korver. Get Cleveland to take back Delly, plus a highly protected 1st rounder. With the additions of Lopez, Korver, and İlyasova - that could be a fun team.

Have the Brewers ever had a minor leaguer with a 30/30 season? If he keeps hitting like he is, I can't imagine he'll be in AA all that much longer. May be even positioning himself for a September call-up. Who woulda thought that at this time last year? It's nice to see Corey on one of his good streaks. Power, speed. If he can keep his batting average up, he could be really good. He's up to .257, which is okay, but nothing great. Still, it's good progress after his first two seasons. 48 of his 94 hits have been for extra bases. That's really, really good.

Final: Biloxi 8, Tennessee 2 Eight Is Great! Shuckers Score Eight Unanswered To Down Smokies Shuckers Push Past Smokies with Signature Late Rally By Spencer Siegel / Biloxi Shuckers (Michael Krebs) Biloxi Box Score Corey Ray is in the zone. On Friday he went 3-4 with an inside-the-park HR and 2 SBs. He is 9 for this last 18. Trent Grisham and Clint Coulter also homered, helping the Shuckers to a come-from-behind 8-2 victory over the Tennessee Smokies. On the mound, Thomas Jankins gave up only one run in five innings of work. Batting Corey Ray: 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 SB Tyler Heineman: 2-3, BB, SB Clint Coulter: 2-3, HR, BB Trent Grisham: 1-3, HR, BB Pitching Thomas Jankins: 5.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 0BB, 0K Cody Ponce: 3.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 0BB, 3K, Win Danny Reynolds: 1.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0BB, 2K Notes Ray leads the Southern League in doubles, HRs, total bases, and stolen bases. More than half of his base hits (49 of 96) have been for extra bases. Biloxi Game Log Five run 8th for Biloxi puts the game out of reach. Biloxi Bottom of the 8th Lucas Erceg flies out to center fielder Wynton Bernard. Tyler Heineman walks. With Clint Coulter batting, Tyler Heineman steals (3) 2nd base. Clint Coulter homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Tyler Heineman scores. Luis Aviles Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Eddy Martinez. Pitching Change: Jordan Minch replaces Wyatt Short, batting 7th. With Trent Grisham batting, wild pitch by Jordan Minch, Luis Aviles Jr. to 2nd. Trent Grisham walks. Offensive Substitution: Pinch-hitter Troy Stokes Jr. replaces Cody Ponce. With Troy Stokes Jr. batting, Luis Aviles Jr. steals (6) 3rd base. Troy Stokes Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Eddy Martinez. Luis Aviles Jr. scores. Corey Ray hits an inside-the-park home run (18) on a line drive to center field. Trent Grisham scores. Keston Hiura flies out to left fielder Charcer Burks.

I don't think Dozier is going to cost a ton. JD Martinez didn't cost an arm and leg last year, and he was a superior player. I'm thinking a top 20 guy - someone who might be useful down the road to Minnesota. Ponce, Houser, Stokes - that sort of player. Maybe Trent Grisham if the Twins want to buy low on someone who once had some promise. Perhaps they could package Dozier with someone like Zack Duke - another expiring contract. Brett Phillips?

Fulmer has gone on the DL with a left oblique strain. So anyone dreaming of dealing for the guy might be out of luck. But we will have to see how serious it is. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/tigers-place-michael-fulmer-on-10-day-dl-2.html

Check out Ray's homer. Opposite field. It looks like he barely pops it up.

Here's a guess as to what it would take to get Realmuto: Hiura Woodruff Ortiz (alternative: Brett Phillips) Payton Henry (alternative: Jacob Nottingham) This package allows us to hold onto Burnes and Peralta. What I'm offering is similar in scope to the Yelich deal - but not quite as much. Realmuto only comes with 2.4 years of control, while Yelich had five years. As for the Marlins, despite having Isan Diaz in the minors (who just moved up to AAA), I'm guessing they would be happy to have Hiura as a centerpiece of any deal, especially with Diaz's mediocre play. Woodruff can slide into the rotation now. Ortiz is probably a year or so behind him. Outside of Sandy Alcantara, Miami lacks good pitching prospects in the upper minors, so these two guys fit right into their area of need. The Marlins also lack any decent catching prospects, so Henry is a nice longer term asset. Jacob Nottingham would be an alternative here, especially if you need to sweeten the pot to get the deal done. This is just a guess on my part. I might be over valuing Woodruff and Ortiz, but I think I'm okay on my assessments. PS - I'm not necessarily advocating this type of deal. Just playing at what I think it would take to make this happen. 6+ years of Hiura is a tough, tough thing to surrender.

Final: Biloxi 4, Tennessee 1 Biloxi Box Score - Game 2 Everyone digs the long ball. Jake Gatewood, Corey Ray and Luis Aviles, Jr. each hit home runs on Thursday night to help lead Biloxi to a doubleheader sweep of Tennessee. On the mound, Kodi Medeiros gave up only one hit and no runs in five innings of work. He did walk four batters in addition to striking out seven. The two wins give Biloxi four consecutive victories. Batting Corey Ray: 1-3, HR Jake Gatewood: 1-3, HR Luis Aviles, Jr.: 1-3, HR Pitching Kodi Medeiros: 5.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4BB, 7K, Win Jon Olczak: 2.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 0BB, 3K, Save Notes Medeiros' ERA has dropped to 3.20 for the season. Biloxi Game 2 Log Luis Aviles Jr. popped a 2-run blast for a lead that would hold up for the rest of the night. Biloxi Bottom of the 2nd Lucas Erceg grounds out, second baseman Trent Giambrone to first baseman Yasiel Balaguert. Clint Coulter singles on a line drive to center fielder Wynton Bernard. Blake Allemand flies out to center fielder Wynton Bernard. Luis Aviles Jr. homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Clint Coulter scores. Max McDowell grounds out, shortstop Zack Short to first baseman Yasiel Balaguert.

Ray has gone yard in game two. Now tied with Gatewood with 17 HRs. And now Gatewood has hit an HR. Back in the league lead with 18.

Ray has gone yard in game two. Now tied with Gatewood with 17 HRs.

Final: Biloxi 2, Tennessee 1 Biloxi Box Score - Game 1 In game one of a double header on Thursday, the Shuckers managed only four hits, but one was a 2-run HR from Jake Gatewood, propelling Biloxi to a 2-1 victory. The Shuckers to strong outings on the mound from Luis Ortiz and Nate Greip. Ortiz gave up only a run, three hits and a walk in five innings of work. He struck out five. Griep worked around a pair of walks in the final two innings to get the win. Batting Corey Ray: 2-3 Jake Gatewood: 1-3, HR Lucas Erceg: 1-3 Pitching Luis Ortiz: 5.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1BB, 5K Nate Griep: 2.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 2BB, 2K, Win Notes Gatewood's HR was his 17th on the season. He now leads the Southern League in the category. Biloxi Game 1 Log Jake Gatewood with the 2-run bomb for the win! Biloxi Bottom of the 6th Pitching Change: Jake Stinnett replaces Keegan Thompson, batting 9th. Corey Ray singles on a line drive to right fielder Eddy Martinez. Troy Stokes Jr. pops out to second baseman Trent Giambrone. Keston Hiura strikes out swinging. Jake Gatewood homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Corey Ray scores. Lucas Erceg grounds out, pitcher Jake Stinnett to first baseman Yasiel Balaguert.

The more I think about things, and here's a basic plan: 1. I would target Dozier or Cabrera at 2B (prefer Dozier due to his superior glove). 2. I'd then look to replace Kratz - someone like Barnhardt, AJ Ellis -- essentially cheap options. 3. Look at the starter market - JA Happ, Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi. None of these guys are going to top of the rotation guys, but they improve the overall rotation, and provide valuable depth. I wouldn't overpay for players, but if the price is right, go for it. 4. Look at quality relievers to fortify the bullpen. Zack Duke, Joakim Soria, Kyle Barraclough - that type of guy. Again, don't overpay, but make a move if the price isn't too high. 5. Bring back Arcia if the club feels he's got his head together. Basically, I say fix 2B, improve catcher, and then see what upgrades the market offers. We're not unloading a ton of the farm system - especially our top prospects. But as people have noted, we are going to lose some people this off season - so let's spend that capital now to get something to help us. In the end, we've gotten this far with this club. Let's do some tweaks, fix the obvious holes, and go to battle with what got us here. It ain't perfect - but nothing is. We can always make some tweaks at the end of August if possible. But for now, we have to trust the team to get their stuff together. Big trades won't help if the rest of the team falters.

Archer is really an odd case. Lots of talent, big K numbers, innings eater -- but mediocre ERA. And he's benefited from pitching in Tampa. He seems like he should be more dominant. Add in the injury, and he's not going to net the Rays nearly as much as if they had dealt him in the off season. Personally, I'd be really intrigued to add the guy. His ability to eat innings would be great, and perhaps the change of scenery help him out. But I certainly wouldn't expect him to be a top of the rotation guy - even if I thought that was possible at one time. I wouldn't overpay, but I would check in to see what the price is.

I think Lutz will hold his position (#6) - maybe even move a bit. His OPS is .768 - very good for the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (average OPS is around .700). And he's been hitting great the last month or so. People like to see guys improving (and not the other way around). So he should get plenty of love. As for specific ranking, Woodruff (#3) has graduated. And the one guy who really would move up into the top five - Freddy Peralta - is likely to graduate from this list as well. So he won't be a factor. Hiura and Burnes should keep the top spots. Ortiz and Phillips are next. Neither has been great, but I'm not sure if Lutz will leapfrog either. Still is a possibility, but we shall see. Otherwise, of the guys below Lutz on our last poll, I'm guessing Corey Ray is the only player that could pass over him. But Ray would have to go on a bit of a tear an improve his batting average to make such a move. And even then, there's no guarantee. Of the rest of the guys below Lutz, I don't think anyone having a campaign that will vault them into the Top 5 of our prospect list. Dubon is hurt. Erceg is doing well of late, but overall is nothing special. Medeiros, Nottingham, Diplan, Stokes, Gatewood - all doing well enough to move up in the rankings, but not to the extent they leap up to the Top 5 area. The one guy really having a breakout season is Zack Brown - but I don't expect him to jump from 28 into the Top 5. Maybe Top 10, but players rarely make moves that big. Only other guy to probably consider in the Top 10 is our top pick, Brice Turang. But almost no way he slots into the Top 5 area. Obviously, trades can shake things up, or Lutz could go 0-40 in his next 10 games, but as things stand now, I'm betting Lutz jumps up in the rankings, or at worst, holds the #6 spot.

I would imagine that Counsell/Stearns are well aware of it. The Brewers are part of the revolution. They did it last year in Nelson's stead. The Rays are starting relievers every other game. It's not necessarily a new idea for playoff games. In 2011, Cardinals starters only made it through the 5th one time in our 7 game series - Carpenter went 5.0. We'd just be tightening that up even more in the absence of an ace and maybe going 3-2-1-1-1-1 or something like that. I wouldn't be surprised if we are in the situation we did something like this. If it plays to our strengths, it would be cool to try. Would we do? Why not. The Brewers do a lot of shifting. The Brewers have used Hader in a really unique and effective way. So to say Counsell wouldn't consider it seems incorrect.

Go to the major league forum for more discussion: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=37180

Difficult move for Cleveland, but their bullpen was awful. This restocks it for the next couple of years. Mejia was, no doubt, tough to give up, but he is still a bit of a work in progress. The Indians are built to win now, so they were willing to make the move. San Diego did a nice job turning a couple of relievers into one of the game's premier prospects.

Castro would get us through 2019 at 2B (I'm guessing the 2020 option of $16M would be bought out for $1M). Makes roughly $11M this year and $12M in 2019 (plus the $1M buyout) - so he isn't cheap. Solid player the last couple of years. Adequate defender at 2B, but nothing special. Not sure how he would do at SS. A couple of years ago he seemed to be getting worse there as he put on weight and bulk (he weighs 230 now - at least officially). So I'm not sure he'd work there. He looks like a 2.0-.2.5 WAR type guy at 2B. Good average. Bit of power. Doesn't walk much. He doesn't put up big splits either, meaning he could go out there most of the time and not force the team to come up with a platoon. We could do worse. If you're taking on salary, I wouldn't give much for him. In the end, he'd be a positive asset for the next year or so.

I posted this over at the Fangraphs Value thread, and thought it would work here: In Fangraphs recent Trade Value Series, they have Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all in the 20-30 range (this is their trade value, not just how good they are. The series combines a person's value on the field, the years of control remaining, the salary they will make, and comes up with a value). So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire deGrom or Syndergaard or Realmuto - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge. That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto). That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy). That is just for Syndergaard OR deGrom. It's not both of them. What would both take to get? Wow. That would be hard as only have one really elite prospect. But Peralta and Woodruff are still very valuable, and both have 6+ years of control left. They are more 50-100 level prospect guys - not elite like Hiura. But let's see what we could do with them in the deal: Brewers get Syndergaard AND deGrom. Mets get Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and three (might even need to do all four) of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips - plus a couple of lottery ticket types. That would be emptying the farm system.

As a note, Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all land in this 20-30 range. So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire any of these players in a deal - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge. That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto). That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy). Just saying.

I'll take a stab. I'm guessing something like Brandon Woodruff (technically not a prospect anymore, but was in the 80-100 area prior to graduating) is an okay 'value' comparison to Diaz. Diaz is around #75 on prospect lists, but in reality, guys in the top 75-100 are pretty interchangeable. Woodruff has been okay this year, while Diaz has gotten better. However, Diaz is at AA, while Woodruff is working in the majors and AAA. It also (probably) helps that Woodruff is pretty much major league ready. So I'm just going to call them even. As for the other guys, they now slot in at #13 and #17 on the Orioles ranks. I'm guessing that's about 10 slots or so above the Brewer system. So, let's say that equates to Trey Supak and Payton Henry. So, an equivalent is - roughly - Woodruff, Supak, Henry and a couple of other throw-ins for 2.5 months of Machado. Just me making up stuff. Also, as others have noted, these rankings are often from the start of 2018 - so it's hard to trust them. Plus (again, as noted by others), so people just like specific players more than others. The O's might have looked at Woodruff (not that we actually offered him) and didn't like something about him. And they may just love Diaz. The guy has some serious on base skills (.428 this year). And more walks than strikeouts. The O's might have just seen something special in the guy that made him worth a lot more to them than other teams.