Matt Breen

One thing regarding the luxury tax -- teams want to get under it for 2018 so that they can go bonkers after next season when Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Blackmon, Kershaw, Britton, David Price (can opt out) and others are free agents. The luxury tax increases every year in a row that you are over the line - 20% the first year, then 30% and then 50%. So a team over the tax line for three years running pays a 50% tax on their overage amount. However, once a team gets under the luxury tax, it basically resets. So teams interested in the big FA market next off season are looking to get under this year - so they have the flexibility to spend big next off season. So you might see some teams really fighting to stay under the tax line this year - especially because the players available - such as Darvish - are good, but not great. Just speculation - but maybe some of the big spenders might be a little gun shy this off season.

Thanks everyone for you input on things. I would ask that we keep the thread on target. I don't want to get things too much off in the weeds. Just let people post and then move on. Ultimately, this is a community project and it's going to have some different thinking (sometimes very different thinking). Some people have different ways of ranking players. Some people have a lot more knowledge of the minor leagues than others. That's okay. We want people to participate. I never want this to be an elitist exercise. As I said, it's a community project. We watch the votes carefully, and while I've never thrown one out (except for incomplete ballots), I will do it if someone is just being a jerk or trying to manipulate the system. In the end, if we have good participation, the high vote total will cancel out the weirder selections.

I honestly don't mind these - especially in the off season when things are a bit slower. I do, however, think they should be spaced out more - say once a week. I think there just gets too many threads like this going at once and they all just suffer from it.

Another similar themed article - this one from Dave Cameron at Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-already-need-to-retool/

I can honestly say this would be my preference. Add in Broxton as a fourth OF, and you have something pretty cool. Now, that leaves Aguilar and Thames on the bench. Perhaps Thames becomes a part time player - 30-40 starts at 1B, some DH starts, pinch hitting - that sort of thing. A lot of this comes down to not necessarily believing that Thames is more than anything average. I could be wrong -- just a gut thing.

Assuming of course, that Brinson is the hitter we all hope he is... That can be said of just about any player in the game. There are very few sure things. At some point, you just have to take the chance on a guy who is expected to be a very good baseball player. The "problem," which is a good problem to have, is that we have a lot of MLB ready outfielders. Stearns just has to decide the best move for the franchise from a lot of possible options. It will likely involve trading someone. Yeah, this is so true. Sign Eric Hosmer for $150M over six years 'assuming' he continues to hit like he did in 2017. Or sign Lucas Duda 'assuming' he hits 30 HR again and NOT .220 (or whatever he hit last year). Of course, major league production is going to provide a much better barometer of future production than minor league numbers - but like you said, at some point you have to take a risk with young guys. I've said this before - the Brewers are ALWAYS going to have to take this risk. They are always going to have to live through some growing pains of talented young players. It is the nature of our market. We need as much low cost production as possible due to limited payroll. By nature, human beings are risk adverse. We are more afraid of lose than gain. Baseball management isn't immune to this affect. They will often take a known quantity - even if that players isn't that good - over a 'risky' player who may offer far more upside (but more downside).

I guess I disagree with this. They scored the second most runs in the NL last year - only two behind the Rockies. As for HRs, they were 3rd in the league - behind Milwaukee and the Mets. Each of those two teams scored roughly 90 less runs than the Cubs last year - despite the same number of HRs. 2nd in the league in runs. 3rd in HRs. I guess I don't really see them as too reliant on the HR. And certainly no more so than the Nationals or the Diamondbacks (who hit 8 and 3 HRs less than the Cubs, and scored 3 and 10 runs less). The Dodgers hit only three fewer HRs than the Cubs this year - yet scored 52 fewer runs. Teams get hot. Teams get cold. It happens. As for the main argument - that the Cubs have sold out long term for short term gain - I think that's totally legit. But I think they have a plan they can live with (not perfect, but pretty solid). They are set in position players for several years to come - Contraras, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Happ, Heyward. That's pretty solid (minus CF). There's Zobrist and Schwarber as well - although the former is getting old and the latter really doesn't belong in the NL. As Monty pointed out, the Cubs have about $135M committed to players in 2018. With a rotation that begins with Lester, Hendricks and Quintana - that's a decent starting point. They could throw some crazy money at one of the big starters - Arrieta or Darvish - or add more of a #4 type, and then 2-3 relievers. Maybe a cheap #5 starter as well. That starts pushing them toward the luxury tax line, but not so much that they couldn't add salary during the season if they needed to. The thing is that this club is built to win for the next three or so years. You pointed it out - they sold their system (at least upper minor league guys). They have some nice lower level prospects, but it's going to take time for those guys to develop (if ever). But right now, they have the offense to carry the club. They have some room to add payroll as well - which will make them pretty good. Depth will be an issue for them, but heck, I'd push the envelope with guys like Rizzo and Bryant on my roster. Now is the time to win. Perhaps in a few years they'll need to reboot - but they've won one WS, and nearly got to a second, so I'd say they are doing pretty well.

I have to say that the 2016 draft has been pretty underwhelming (as far as players the Crew could have picked). A lot of the first rounders are pretty 'meh' looking thus far - including Ray. For the high school guys, you can expect that due to their age and experience level. But the college guys haven't even been that great (outside of Senzel, who we didn't have a chance to pick). In retrospect, Puk would have been an interesting pick. But there were so many concerns about him coming out - it's understandable that teams soured on him. I know that the Crew loved Delvin Perez, but that wasn't going to happen at #5 after the PED thing. Lewis had some poor pre-draft showings, and didn't particularly impress the club. There was some concern that his big college numbers were a result of a weaker competition (Southern Conference). The club really liked Blake Rutherford as well - and if Ray had been off the board, he may have been our pick. As for Groome, that wasn't going to happen due to his off the field concerns. The guy that really intrigues me now is Taylor Trammel - the 35th pick in the draft (by the Reds). He looks like a 5-tool guy. But high school guys like him are so risky. I've said this before - it wasn't a great draft class. But such is life. Hopefully, our guys come around down the road.

The answer is to sign Hosmer or Duda to play 1B and move Thames to RF. That would make up for the bulk of lost offense. Duda needs a platoon partner (hit .188 against them last year) is not a very good defensive player, he doesn't run well, at 32 is on the downside of his career, and has had quite a few injuries over the last couple of years, including a back injury. His ability to hit 30 HR and takes some walks is great, but when he hits .217 and .229 like he has the past two years, that really sucks the wind out of his value. 6'4" and 250+ pound guys rarely age well. The guy has had injuries, his batting average has dropped. He's begging to play for Boston or Texas or someone like that - where he can DH and play some 1B. Plus, Thames shouldn't be in the OF. He's a terrible outfielder.

I was excited to see Clark get a full season this past year. I was disappointed in several ways - particularly the batting average. The strike outs, obviously, are concerning, but what really worries me was his performance against lefties. Clark hit only .180 against them last year. He hit them just fine in 2016, so I'm hoping it was just a aberration - but those are the kinds of things that come out as a player moves up the minor league ladder. On the flip side, I'm encouraged by the high walk rate. He's got some speed - which is always nice. He seems like he would be a very good left fielder. As others have noted, it seems like he's patient to a fault at the plate. He's got quick hands and you'd like to see him using them to make things happen. We'll see how he does going forward. 2017 kind of put Clark in neutral on the prospect scale - no great momentum, but I'm not writing him off yet.

Gardenhire gets a 3-year deal. I always kind of liked Gardenhire. Hope he does well for the Tigers. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21083285/ron-gardenhire-next-manager-detroit-tigers

I have one jersey - Geoff Jenkins. Bought it at JC Penney for something like $20 right at the end of his final season. It is a bit too large, but that's okay. I wear it to games and on opening day - just a few times a year. Can't wait to put it on for playoff games. Still in almost perfect shape.

I think it should be noted that in 2019, the Brewers will have a significant number of arbitration eligible players. While salaries are the same in 2018 as 2019 (just Braun and Thames are under contract), there's going to be a lot of dollars going into the young players entering arbitration. Here's the list of the major ones (player name followed by the number of years they are into the arby process): Vogt (3) Anderson (3) Jeffress (3) Villar (2) Nelson (2) Davies (1) Perez (2) Santana (1) Broxton (1) Knebel (2) Pina (1) And we have virtually no free agents - just Torres and Hughes. This number of arby guys can easily tack on $15-20M in salary from the previous year. It's why I think there will not be any big signings. They'll add a couple of relievers, maybe look to get someone on the cheap - but no $20M Hosmer or $25M Darvish.

Thanks to everyone for getting things started. Appreciate it.

Folks, please start voting for the post-season prospect poll. If you have any questions about players - such as eligibility or whatever - please post the question in this thread. Also, if you notice any errors in the original post, please let me know. I will update as needed. Finally, I will update the original post if there is a change (such as someone is added to the 40 man roster or whatever). The post-season poll probably won't deviate too much from the mid-season iteration, but that's okay. Hader and Wang are no longer eligible, so that will open up a spot. And we got some more exposure to the new draft picks. Thanks for playing!

It's voting time again. We would like to invite everyone to take part in the 2017 Post-Season BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects voting. Please take time and submit on this thread your top 25 Brewer prospects. Feel free to list any resources or news that you feel might help people with their voting. Voting begins October 18, and concludes on November 2, which will give everyone more than two weeks to vote. You can change your votes at anytime through November 2, so I recommend getting your picks in early. You can always go back and tweak your list. RULES 1. Submit your Top 25 prospects, in order, by end of day on Nov. 2. Put the player's full name to avoid any confusion (such as Devin Williams and Taylor Williams). Numbering them is helpful - but not essential. Also, please list your players from #1 to #25. 2. You MUST submit 25 prospects. If there are only 10 or 15 or whatever, your list will not be included. 3. You are encouraged to go beyond pick #25 - adding a few more is great. That way if someone in your top 25 is traded or released, or if you mistakenly miss a number (not uncommon), or list a guy twice, or whatever, I can just bump up your next player(s) into the Top 25. 4. Rankings are determined by total points. The top prospect gets 25 points, second prospect gets 24 points, etc. 4. As noted above, if you submit your list and want to change something, just add the change to the thread. I'll accept changes up to the deadline. 5. Within a week after the deadline, we'll publish the new BF.net Community Top 25. Eligibility guidelines: Rookie eligibility is determined by the same standards as MLB: “A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).” - Ineligible players: Josh Hader, Wei-Chung Wang - Eligible players with ML experience: Brandon Woodruff, Tyler Webb, Jorge Lopez, Adrian Houser, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams - Players eligible for free agency this winter: Nick Ramirez, Hiram Burgos, Jorge Ortega, Michael Reed, Yadiel Rivera, Yhonathan Barrios, Sean Nolin - these players would have to resign - or be added to the 40 man roster - to stay with the organization. You are able to vote for them if you want, but know that there is a chance they could leave. Player notes: - Josh Hader has not reached 50 IP, but he has passed the 45 day mark on the active roster. This makes him ineligible. - Brandon Woodruff is eligible as he has less than 50 IP pitched and less than 45 days on the active roster. - David Goforth and Michael Blazek have elected free agency and are no longer with the organization Prospect Rankings: Please note that many prospect rankings have not been updated since mid-season - or even the start of 2017. Baseball America Mid-season Top 100 (does not include recent draft picks): http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/ Baseball America Mid-Season Top 10 Brewers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-milwaukee-brewers-midseason-top-10-prospects/#jF71zPOW9PLAV6xt.97 Baseball Prospectus Mid-Season Top 50: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224 MLB Pipeline Mid-Season Top 30 Brewers (updates as players graduate off lists): http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=mil MLB Pipeline Mid-Season Top 100 players (updates as players graduate off lists): http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects Baseball Prospectus Top 101: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160 Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Brewers: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30902 Minor League Ball Top 200: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/27/15073602/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-revised Minor League Ball Top 30 Brewers: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/17/14297686/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2017 Fangraphs Top 100: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/ Fangraphs Top 25 Brewers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/ Previous Polls: BF.net 2017 Mid-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=35723 BF.net 2017 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=35089 BF.net 2016 Post-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34747 BF.net 2016 Mid-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34472 BF.net 2016 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33867 BF.net 2015 Post-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33436 BF.net 2015 Mid-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33032 BF.net 2015 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=32447 BF.net August 2014 Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=31859 BF.net May 2014 Top 20 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=31355 Please note that we reserve the right to throw out ballots if we feel that the voting was done without following the rules or spirit of the exercise. Thanks for participating!

I don't think SF will rebuild this off season. They had a lot of injuries and underperforming players last season - they'll bank on some guys rebounding. No doubt they have a lot of older players. But they are losing some of those types (Matt Cain this year, Span and Pence are done after 2018). And a rotation starting with Cueto, Bumgarner, Samardzija and Moore is pretty interesting (could be very good, could be bad). I just don't see those guys getting traded as SF has such little depth in the rotation. Tyler Beede is their best prospect - by far - and he's not very good looking at this time. They could really use a CF - moving Span to LF. Broxton might be a decent fit for them if we elect to put him on the market. He's cheap and would fit well in SF's park. SF is pretty close to the luxury tax, so they don't have a ton of money to spend this year. Moustakas might be fit for them if they don't believe in Christian Arroyo. Or if they use Panik as a trade chip and move Arroyo to 2B. If the Giants tank again next year, a mini-rebuild might happen - but probably not until the trade deadline when the team is clearly not going to win.

This would sum up my thoughts also. I wasn’t a fan of the draft pick, but despite the disappointing results there are still elements of his physical abilities that leave hope he can develop into a major league contributor. It seems like scouts have always been higher on Ray than public opinion, and I think there are scouts that still see plenty of talent. That being said, I think next year is really important in terms of seeing improvements on the statistical end such as reducing his strikeout rate and elevating his on-base %. I think both these comments hit things pretty well. You want someone special out of the #5 pick. Unfortunately, it was kind of a tough year to pick high in the draft. I think there was a lack of standouts compared to other years.

Keith Law said something similar - looks like his approach has changed - and not for the better. Good bat speed, moving well, good defense, good at bats (but poor results). Not a lot of movement in the batter's box. Not hitting the ball hard.

I am concerned about Ray's early performance, no question. You want a college bat to show more at this stage. However, as I have said before, it's still barely 1.5 years of play. I guess I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic - but I'm bracing for the worst. In the end, I like the guy's tools and make up, and am anticipating seeing him at full strength in 2018 after playing last year coming off knee surgery.

The question wasn't about hanging Wild Card or Division flags. It was about what was best for the Brewers. I guess I should have been more clear about that. I assumed people would understand that the goal is to always win a World Series. And in my mind, that was what I was asking about. So, to rephrase the question, what's the best thing for Milwaukee to win the WS - make the playoffs via two WC runs or one divisional title?

I'm glad I'm not the only one who was thinking that. He's a really, really good pitcher but I just don't see him as the ace everyone else is. I'm also pretty firmly against making a big time trade at this point. Archer is kind of a fascinating player to judge. As noted, he's had an ERA of over 4.00 the past two years (4.02 and 4.07). That's not bad, but it's not great either. So what is the guy? I think a lot of the hype comes from his 2013-15 campaigns. 3.22, 3.33 and 3.32 ERAs, respectively. High strikeouts, high innings pitched. The guy was coming off his age 26 season, 5.2 fWAR/4.6 bWAR, all-star appearance. He was entering his prime years and a lot of people just thought he looked like he was going to breakout into something really special. That, of course, didn't happen. ERA has regressed. FIP hasn't been as bad the last couple of years - 3.81 and 3.40. He still eats innings (200+ that three years), strikes out a ton of guys (233 or more for three years running), and doesn't walk too many guys (between 60-67 over the last three years). The big change has been the HRs. He went from 19 in 2015, to 30 and 27 over the past couple of years. Fangraphs still loves Archer - giving him a 4.6 WAR this past year. But Baseball-Reference is way lower - 1.2 WAR. That's a huge discrepancy. I know Fangraphs loves strikeouts, but I don't know enough but the two systems to know why they are so different. I honestly haven't seen Archer that much to give any judgement other than he looks like he has premium stuff. Perhaps other people know more about him - and have more first-hand knowledge of him. I'd be curious what others have to say. I don't doubt Tampa will put a huge value on Archer, but I'd say there's lots of positive signs about the guy that I would risk bringing him on. The price, however, has to be reasonable (I'm not saying dirt cheap - just not a big overpay). You'd want to believe he's a guy who can fill a #2 slot in a rotation. Ultimately, it's the Brewers who have to make that call.

29 is young? I was thinking that too. It's not "young" but certainly younger than most free agents. Also, not sure who the Jimnenz is that was mentioned. Yeah, he's not necessarily 'young', as you note, but he's younger than most players of his type that are available. The big thing is that you are getting a guy for ages 29-32 - which is still pretty 'young' for a quality starting pitcher. Guys like Duffy aren't generally available quite yet in free agency or via trade. Teams just lock up these guys early and keep them off the market. And when they are made available for trade, it's like the Sale deal last year or the Quintana this summer - a team in obvious rebuild mode looking to restock their farm system. There's just not that many 'youngish' players on the market. And the price will be high, because KC (or any team) can wait out the market if necessary - just like Chicago did for Quintana.

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

Agree. Vogelbach would be a terrible fit for Milwaukee. Bad defense, one of the slowest runners in the game. And his bat isn't that good. He's what the DH was created for - and even then, there's questions of whether he will hit enough.