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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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Observations from the latest poll - Not a ton of movement from the last poll, which isn’t a surprise. - It was nice to see Taylor Williams back in the Top 25 after being gone for two years. With a strong spring camp, Adrian Houser may be the next one-time prospect to get back on the board. - Sad to see one time top prospects, including Tyrone Taylor and Jorge Lopez, fall to mere after thoughts. Clint Coulter didn’t garner a single ballot.
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Thanks to everyone who participated in our latest Top 25 poll. Here are some stats and numbers: Graduates from Top 25: Josh Hader Newcomers to Top 25: Jordan Yamamoto Number of ballots: 36 Number of players on ballots: 51 Mr. Irrelevant (1 point): Nick Ramirez, Jean Carmona, Braden Webb, Carlos Rodriguez Risers: Taylor Williams (+7), Monte Harrison (+5), F. Peralta (+5) Fallers: Medeiros (-6), Ray (-4), Supak (-4) Please know that all write ups are my own observations and opinions - as are the guesses as to each players likely 2018 destination. If you see any mistakes, please let me know. Sometimes autocorrect will trick me. Or I’ll cut and paste something incorrectly. Other times I just mess something up. I will update as needed.
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#1 ( - ) Lewis Brinson, OF, age 23 869 points (25 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit .331 last year at AAA. Fast and athletic, outstanding defender. The not-so-excitement: Struggled in 21 games in Milwaukee (going 5 for 47). Stung by the injury bug again. The Skinny: Five tool player who simply needs to stay healthy and get consistent reps. Likely 2018 Destination: Milwaukee Brewers #2 (+3) Corbin Burnes, RHP, age 23 817 points (2 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: 1.67 ERA, 140K, and only 36 walks in 145.2 IP between Carolina and Biloxi. That just screams awesome. The not-so-excitement: Might not have that true ‘out’ pitch to take him to another level. The Skinny: Amazing 2017 for Burnes. If he can keep up his success he could very well be in Milwaukee by mid-season. Likely 2018 Destination: AAA Colorado Springs #3 ( - ) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, age 25 791 points (4 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Displayed confidence and poise in his first taste of the Big Leagues. Tossed 6.1 innings of shutout ball in his debut. The not-so-excitement: Showed some inconsistencies in his mechanics. Got hit hard at the end of the season. The Skinny: With Jimmy Nelson injured to start 2018, and Matt Garza gone, Woodruff will likely be in the Brewers rotation in 2018. Likely 2018 Destination: Milwaukee Brewers #4 ( - ) Keston Hiura, 2B, age 21 786 points (1 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: The guy can hit. .371 BA between Arizona and Wisconsin. 25 extra base hits in 167 ABs. The not-so-excitement: Needs to get on the field and not just DH. Strike out rate was a bit high - pushing 20%. Questions on how much power Hiura will produce. The Skinny: Best pure hitter in the system. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina #5 (+3) Brett Phillips, OF, age 23 755 points (3 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: After an exceptional year at AAA, Phillips more than held his own in a 37 game trial with the Brewers, hitting .276 on 87 ABs. Showed an 80 arm in Milwaukee. The not-so-excitement: Strikes out too much. Will likely have some growing pains early on in the majors. The Skinny: Even if he strikes out too much, the talented Phillips demonstrated his value with the bat and glove during last September’s playoff run. Expect him to be back in Milwaukee in 2018. Likely 2018 Destination: Milwaukee Brewers #6 ( - ) Luis Ortiz, RHP, age 22 655 points - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Probably no pitcher in the Milwaukee system sports the tools and command needed to be a front-line pitcher than Ortiz. The not-so-excitement: Needs to improve his health and durability and go deeper into games. Premium stuff hasn’t always translated into good performances. The Skinny: Expect the Crew to push Ortiz’s workload in 2018. The young man has all the skills in the world - but people will want him to take a step forward next season. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi or AAA Colorado Springs #7 (+5) Freddy Peralta, RHP, age 21 625 points (1 1st place votes) - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Between Carolina and Biloxi, struck out 169 batters in 120 innings (leading all of the minor leagues in strikeout rate) with a 2.63 ERA. The not-so-excitement: Walked 62 batters last year. The Skinny: After an electrifying 2017, Peralta will no longer fly under people’s radar. With his smaller size, some speculate he is destined for the bullpen, but if he can improve his control - just a bit more - he could easily be in the Brewer rotation in the future. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi #8 (+5) Monte Harrison, OF, age 22 614 points - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit 21 HRs and stole 27 bases (87.1% success rate). Healthy all year, and moved from Wisconsin to Carolina without any dip in performance. The not-so-excitement: Struck out 139 times. Would like to see a little higher walk rate. The Skinny: May not ever hit for a high BA, but speed and power combo is one of the best in the Milwaukee system. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi #9 (-2) Isan Diaz, 2B/SS, age 21 599 points - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Showed a nice combination of power (13 HR) and patience (62 walks) in a tough hitting environment. The not-so-excitement: Struggled to make contact in 2017 (.222 BA). Ended the season early with a broken hamate bone. The Skinny: After an impressive 2016, Diaz floundered. There is a ton of upside in Diaz, but he will need to answer some questions in 2018. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina or AA Biloxi #10 (+4) Lucas Erceg, 3B, age 22 564 points - 35 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hits the ball hard. Plus arm and solid defense at the hot corner. Struggled early in 2017 (.651 OPS), but improved (.796 OPS) in the second half of the season. The not-so-excitement: Needs to be a little more selective at the plate. The Skinny: The combination of plus power and good defense makes Erceg an intriguing prospect who could take the step to the next level with a little improvement. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi #11 (+4) Tristen Lutz, OF, age 19 551 points - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Big, powerful young hitter who pounded the Arizona Rookie League and the Pioneer League to the tune of a .957 OPS in 161 ABs. Also, he improved as he moved up to Helena - upping his batting average and walk rate while cutting down on his strikeouts. The not-so-excitement: Enthusiasm should be tempered a bit due to the very hitter-friendly environment of the Pioneer League. The Skinny: Lutz did everything you could have wanted from a kid out of high school. He appears to be one of the better power bats to join the organization in years. Likely 2018 Destination: A- Wisconsin #12 (-2) Trent Clark, OF, age 21 448 points - 36 of 36 ballots The excitement: Healthy last year, Clark stole 37 bases and drew 98 walks while producing a .360 OBP. The not-so-excitement: Clark bat did not come around as anticipated as he struggled with a .223 BA. 141 strike outs are not fun. The Skinny: Patient to a fault, Clark has some intriguing skills, but he’s going to have to hit better. He has reworked his swing since high school, so perhaps another year of experience will get him to the next level. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina or AA Bilox #13 (-4) Corey Ray, OF, age 23 421 points - 34 of 36 ballots The excitement: Excellent athlete with exceptional bat speed, speed and make up. Will take his walks and stole 24 bases last year. The not-so-excitement: Production. Hit just .238. Time to put all the tools and intangibles together. The Skinny: Talented athlete who’s skills haven’t translated into quality production as of yet. Make or break might be a bit overly dramatic, but it’s safe to say that a lot of people will be watching the former #5 overall pick. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina or AA Biloxi #14 (-3) Mauricico Dubon, SS/2B, age 23 420 points - 33 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit .274 and stole 38 bases between AA and AAA. The not-so-excitement: Benefited greatly from the thin air of Colorado Springs (hitting .336 at home vs .196 on the road). The Skinny: The glove and speed are there - but can he improve with the bat to be more than a utility infielder? Likely 2018 Destination: AAA Colorado Springs #15 (+1) Jake Gatewood, 1B, age 22 360 points - 34 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit 15 HR and 40 doubles to go with a .264 BA - mostly at Carolina. The not-so-excitement: Strikes out a lot (161 times). The Skinny: Tremendous improvements in 2017 give hope that Gatewood can develop into a plus power hitter. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi #16 (+1) Phil Bickford, RHP, age 22 298 points - 30 of 36 ballots The excitement: Healthy and ready to go after missing most of 2017. Has displayed a plus fastball in his career - striking out 183 in 159.1 innings. The not-so-excitement: Had a drug suspension and then an injury last season. Needs to stay healthy. The Skinny: A lot of talent undermined by some poor choices and injuries, Bickford will need to step up to show he’s serious about a baseball career. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina (very much a guess) #17 (+1) Cody Ponce, RHP, age 23 248 points - 28 of 36 ballots The excitement: Finished up 2017 with a nice 17.2 inning stint at Biloxi (1.53 ERA). Limits walks. Threw a career high 137.2 innings in 2017. The not-so-excitement: Surrenders too many hits. Has has erratic control at times. Needs to stay healthy to keep progressing. The Skinny: Ponce doesn’t do anything great, but he has enough in the toolbox to be a viable back-of-the-rotation arm, which - if achieved - is very valuable. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi #18 (+4) Troy Stokes Jr., OF, age 22 229 points - 27 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit 20 HR and stole 30 bases last year. Strong walk rate helps counter his low batting average. The not-so-excitement: Hit tool is mediocre - batting average was .251 last season - and .260 for his career. The Skinny: Stepped up big last year, moving onto many people’s radars. Has produced better numbers than many more heralded prospects, but he may lack any one great skill that will make him more than a utility OF. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi or AAA Colorado Springs #19 (+7) Taylor Williams, RHP, age 26 207 points - 23 of 36 ballots The excitement: Welcome back to the Top 25! Struck out 57 in only 46.2 IP at Biloxi. After missing two full seasons, it was nice to see Williams return to the mound. He even got a September call up to Milwaukee. The not-so-excitement: Needs to show better control - walking 21 batters at Biloxi. Brought along slowly, Williams only threw 51 innings in 2017. The Skinny: Showed he was back last year. Williams was ranked as high as #8 on our prospect poll. Don’t be surprised if he lands in Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. Likely 2018 Destination: Milwaukee Brewers (my not-so-scientific wild guess) or AAA Colorado Springs #20 ( - ) Marcos Diplan, RHP, age 21 192 points - 30 of 36 ballots The excitement: 119K in a career high 125.2 IP. The not-so-excitement: Walked 71 batters. The Skinny: Diplan has stagnated the last year and a half after dominating the lower realms of the minors. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina or AA Biloxi #21 (+3) Mario Feliciano, C, age 19 154 points - 27 of 36 ballots The excitement: Held his own in the Midwest League at age 18, where he caught 27.4% of runners trying to steal bases. The not-so-excitement: Hitting has been solid, but nothing special - which is not a shocker considering his young age. The Skinny: Talented young player who handled full season ball - and the difficult position of catcher - without any issues. The Brewers feel that power will develop in time. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina #22 (+1) Jacob Nottingham, C, age 22 138 points - 22 of 36 ballots The excitement: Caught 40% of runners trying to steal. Saw improvements in walk rate, strikeout rate, on-base % and slugging %. The not-so-excitement: Hit only .209. The Skinny: While Nottingham was better behind the dish in 2017, his .209 batting average was a disappointment. Still only 22, the club will hope he regains his hitting stroke of 2015 when he hit .316. Likely 2018 Destination: AAA Colorado Springs #23 (+2) KJ Harrison, C, age 21 132 points - 22 of 36 ballots The excitement: Hit .308 with a .934 OPS at Helena in his debut. The not-so-excitement: Has only caught 17 games in the pros. Struck out more than 25% of the time. The Skinny: Polished college hitter needs to get a chance to see if he can stay behind the plate as a pro. Likely 2018 Destination: A- Wisconsin #24 ( new ) Jordan Yamamoto, RHP, age 21 129 points - 20 of 36 ballots The excitement: Welcome to the Top 25, Jordan! After a fine 2016, Yamamoto followed it up by striking out 113 in 111 innings (plus a nifty 2.51 ERA) in Carolina. The not-so-excitement: While he can hit 95 on the radar gun, at 6’0” tall, Yamamoto doesn’t have a lot of projection going forward. The Skinny: The lack of projection has kept Yamamoto from being higher on prospect lists. His development, however, has been encouraging - and it will be interesting to see how his stuff works against higher competition in 2018. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi 25T (-4) Trey Supak, RHP, age 21 115 points - 22 of 36 ballots The excitement: Was lights out at Wisconsin, producing a 1.76 ERA in 41 innings, including 53K and just 10BB. The not-so-excitement: Command was spotty after promotion to Carolina, resulting in a 4.60 ERA and a greatly reduced strikeout rate - and a greatly increased walk rate. The Skinny: Despite having four years of pro ball under his belt, Supak has only thrown 224 innings despite mostly starting. He is a big man with a live arm - we just need to find out how to get the Trey Supak who dominated the Midwest League. Likely 2018 Destination: A+ Carolina or AA Biloxi #25T (-6) Kodi Medeiros, LHP, age 21 115 points - 22 of 36 ballots The excitement: Struck out 121 in 128.1 innings while greatly improving most of his peripherals. Still gets lit up by right handers. The not-so-excitement: Had a 4.98 ERA and walked too many batters while repeating A+. The Skinny: Is a full-time conversion to reliever in the future for the one-time top prospect? Medeiros had an ERA of 2.31 out of the pen last year - compared to 5.98 out of the rotation. Likely 2018 Destination: AA Biloxi (just guessing the team will push him) The rest Adrian Houser - 78 points Bubba Derby - 75 Josh Pennington - 61 Gabriel Garcia - 37 Caden Lemons - 34 Dallas Carroll - 22 Carlos Herrera - 22 Jon Perrin - 21 Aaron Wilkerson - 21 Nathan Kirby - 16 Zack Brown - 13 Larry Ernesto - 11 Ernesto Wilson Martinez - 9 Cooper Hummel - 9 Jay Feliciano - 8 Gilbert Lara - 7 Nate Griep - 6 Jorge Lopez - 6 Demi Orimoloye - 4 Je’Von Ward - 2 Tyrone Taylor - 2 Carlos Rodriguez - 1 Nick Ramirez - 1 Jean Carmona - 1 Braden Webb - 1 All ages are as of April 1, 2018. Full voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=36051
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How Do We Feel About Gilbert Lara At This Point?
Matt Breen replied to sheetskout's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I have incorporated this into the prospect poll. Thanks. -
Tim Dillard back for his 16th season
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
My guess is as follows: 1. He knows he's not going to the majors. He's willing to pitch wherever they need and whenever they need - and a random arm at Colorado Springs isn't a bad thing to have. He can start, relieve, whatever. When the game's out of hand, he can soak up some innings. That sort of thing. 2. The club likes Dillard and sees a future for him beyond baseball (some speculate as an announcer). Perhaps he just likes playing and the club is willing to let him - knowing that down the road he'll be with the organization in some capacity. 3. Perhaps the club simply likes having a veteran player to talk to and mentor the younger kids. -
Dillard is back for 2018. Signed a minor league deal. It will be his 16th pro season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/minor-mlb-transactions-103117.html Maybe this is not worthy of its own thread, but considering the guy's history with the org it's kind of fun to publicize it.
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If we ate most of the salary, they are not getting anything special. Probably not even a Top 25 guy. Just an organizational type player.
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What is Hernan Perez? He's the guy that I really like and think is a very nice asset to the team -- but he's also the guy who frustrates me because of his inability to take a walk. It just drives me nuts because if he just was a little better at it, he could improve his game a lot. That said, he is a nice utility guy. I don't view him as a starter - but he certainly can hold the fort down at multiple positions for extended times if necessary. I think that's a great skillset to have.
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Considering the Dodgers won more games than anyone in the entire league this past year, you'd think he'd love 'millennial' baseball. Or maybe the Dodgers won 100+ games in spite of 'millennial' baseball. This kind of talk usually comes from people who have never actually sat down and actually tried to listen and understand the reasoning behind decisions. They see someone blow a bunt or strike out and talk about how no one nowadays can do things like that -- ignoring the fact that the same players may have hit doubles and HRs the previous at bats.
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Brewers Sign Eric Sogard to 1 Year Deal
Matt Breen replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Orf is not a SS. He does not have the arm for the position. Dubon looks like a utility IF to me - just not enough bat. But let him play full time at AAA in 2018 and see if he can improve. That could put him in position to be a full time 2B in later 2018 or 2019 (if Villar falters). Or just better prepare him for life in the majors as a utility guy. Hence, Sogard will provide a back up for 2018 at the middle IF spots - in particular for Arcia (I don't want Perez or Orf or Villar there if possible). -
Up front, we acknowledge that there are different ways to rank players. Everyone has their preferences. Some people love upside. Some people love production. Some people weigh performance in the upper minors more than others. Some people follow the minors closely, watch videos and read scouting reports. Others simply read a few prospect lists and move from there. All is good. I really want to stress that it is for fun - and it's a community thing. There will be some oddball lists (usually that's more like some selections very, very different than the rest of the voters) - but again, that's okay. The board is to engage Brewer fans and generate interest in the minor league area. I think that works - and having as many people as possible involved is great (in my opinion) even if I might not agree with some of their decisions. As noted, I think we usually end up doing pretty well.
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Brewers Sign Eric Sogard to 1 Year Deal
Matt Breen replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I expected about $2M or so for Sogard - but I thought he could get a two-year deal. Left handed bat, plays a good 2B and an adequate SS. Nice depth. I will add this. I like the move because a guy like Sogard can help keep the team afloat if there is an injury. We have been killed in the past by having terrible depth. Sogard looks like he can provide that depth. As noted, he had a career year last season - something we should be wary of. But he's also a different player than before his injury. Let's hope he can sustain his performance. -
Anderson gets $4.25M this year - plus a $1M signing bonus. Total of $5.25M. MLB Trade Rumors had him at $5.4M for arby - so that's about right. However, where he sold himself short is probably in 2019 (and beyond), where he's getting $6M. If he had gone to arby and gotten around $5M or so - and then had a good year - he would be poised to make $7.5M or more in 2018. His other options just get more and more bargain-y if he keeps pitching solid. He does have incentives for 2018 and 2019 - but only 400k each year. If he had gone year-to-year, and pitched solid - not great - but solid - let's say around a 4.00 ERA. He could have salaries of $5M (2018), $7.5M (2019) and $10M (2020). That's around $22.5M. If we pick up his 2020 option, he's getting nearly $20M. So he's missing out on $2-3M - plus giving up a year of free agency. But hey, the guy isn't a kid. He's 30. This locks him into to around $12M - he's covered for life. If he regresses or gets hurt, he'll be glad he took the insurance of signing now. So I can't blame him. But he definitely looks like he left a bit of money on the table. And he may regret giving up the year of free agency. We shall see.
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Lynn is a fine pitcher, and at age 30 (31 in May), he's not that old. He had a nice year in 2017, but there are some red flags. His 4.82 FIP is a worrisome. As is the 27 HRs he gave up. He's always tended to get better results than FIP indicates - but not by 1.39 runs in a year. In the end, it really comes down to years and dollars. 2-3 years - sure, that might be of interest. But I'd be very cautious beyond that. Someone will likely overpay for the guy - I just don't want it to be us.
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Don't forget that the Dodgers got Darvish this year. However, there are many teams that made big splashes that didn't get them to the World Series. Dodgers paid big for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick in 2016. Boston signed David Price in 2016, Dbacks got Greinke that same year. Gray didn't get the Yankees to WS this year. Quintana didn't get the Cubs over the top. You get the idea. Teams in contention rarely don't make deals. I think the big thing is that it's important to strike when you think you are ready. You maintain your financial flexibility, have a good pool of prospects to trade - and when the time is right, you move. To me, the biggest mistake is making a big, big move that doesn't transform the team into a great - or near great - team.
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How do we feel about Troy Stokes at this point?
Matt Breen replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Sorry, this has nothing to do with Troy Stokes. Why does a Troy Stokes thread have to turn into a Stearns bashing thread? Can't we save that for the 'What do with this of David Stearns at this point' thread? It's like the in-game-threads, where every third post was twisted to attack or criticize (INSERT PLAYER/COACH/MANAGER/OWNER NAME). -
Sporting News names Craig Counsell NL Manager of the Year
Matt Breen replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Contgratulations to Counsell.

