Matt Breen

I think it's an honest starting point. And if we regress, I won't be shocked. But I won't be shocked if we do better. I'm playing both sides of the argument here (which means I really don't have an answer). Nelson may regress, but perhaps Woodruff steps up. Or Hader becomes a viable starter. Or Braun stays healthy. Etc., etc. So many things can happen. I think one big difference than last year is that the club isn't going to let obviously marginal players hang around on the roster for any length of time. We aren't going to have long leashes on guys such as Peralta or Garza or Feliz or Marinez. Those guys will be gone quicker this year as we won't tolerate their poor play for such a long stretch. I will add this -- the critical thing for this club is to keep acquiring and producing talented players. We are not a team that will sign a bunch of free agent stars. We are ALWAYS going to have a roster in flux in some fashion. We will often have to take a chance on young players - and be willing to forego quick fixes for long term gain. When other teams trade for a player, we might let a rookie have a chance - and be willing to live with the struggles that are part of that situation. That will just be part of the game for us. Starting 2018 without Nelson is huge - but such is life. If he can come back by mid-season (and be good), it's like adding a stud player at the deadline (but at no cost). The other thing I'm excited about is: Woodruff, Burnes, Phillips, Brinson, Taylor Williams, Hader - all guys who debuted in 2017 (or hopefully will debut in 2018). I'm also excited to see what Santana can do now that he's got some success under his belt. The guy could be a beast if he ups his game a bit. And I'm excited for Arcia - I want him to become more consistent and gain some strength. He could be an all-star if he does that.

Agreed on all points. No future is guaranteed, things look bright but prospects are prospects, you don't know. They came up one game short, for a franchise with so few postseason appearances and so little success, any season that comes this close is a killer. I can definitely use six months off from baseball... All of this is true. Tough way to lose things. As noted, excruciating loses. But I'm not going to dwell on things. We didn't quite step up like we needed to down the stretch - just gotta get better. I had a great time - and am disappointed at the way it ended - but it was a blast. All that said, next year looks like it will be fun.

I agree that Kipnis would be an interesting acquisition. He will be 31 in April, so not old (buy not young). He has two years left on his contract at $13.67M and $14.67M. Plus there's an option for 2020 at $16.5M, with a $2.5M buyout. Thus he's due a minimum of $31M over the next two years - not cheap. He's been somewhat erratic throughout his career, producing excellent results in some years - and near replacement level in others (including 2017). Injuries have nagged him a bit (including this past year, when he only played a little more than 1/2 the season). I guess a lot would come down to how the club views him going forward. Are the injuries a serious issue? Do the see him aging poorly? I guess maybe others who have seen him may have some insight. I doubt Kipnis would cost a lot - prospect wise. Not with $31M owed to him.

I'm going to throw Dee Gordon out there as a potential 2B for 2018 (and beyond). I'm generally not a big fan of players like Gordon - their premium skill (speed) often gets them overrated. However, let's take a look at the guy: 1. You would have to look past his 2016 suspension for PEDs. The substances were exogenous testosterone and clostebol. Gordon said he didn't knowingly take them -- but that's what they all say. That said, taking him on is a risk because of this. 2. He is due $38M over the next 3 years (plus $14M in 2021 with a $1M buyout). 3. Is 29 (turns 30 in April), so while he's not young - he's not old. 4. Hit .306 (2017), .268 (2016 - missed 1/2 season with suspension), .333 (2015 - won batting title) and .289 (2014). 5. Steals lots of bases - 58, 30, 58, 64 - over the past four years. 6. Runs the bases very well - ranked 3rd best baserunner by Fangraphs for 2017 (behind Hamilton and Buxton). 7. Doesn't walk much. His OBP for his career is .323 - although it's around .335-.340 the last few years. 8. No power. He's lucky to get 30-35 XBHs in a season. OPS the last few years is around .715-720. 9. While he's left-handed, he doesn't have big splits - so he can play everyday. 10. Pretty much limited to 2B due to a weak arm. 11. WAR values the last few years: Fangraphs: 3.2, 1.0 (suspension season), 4.9, 3.3 / Baseball-Reference: 2.9, 0.8, 4.9, 2.4. I'm guessing he profiles as a 2.5-3.0 WAR guy - solid, but not great. If you're willing to take his 2016 stats as an anomaly - where he missed 1/2 the season due to his suspension - he's been a pretty consistent hitter - .290-.300+, gets on base at a .335-.340 clip. While not great, it's pretty good. And while he doesn't have a lot of pop, his speed and consistent bat would be welcome at the top of the order. Not to mention he's considered a good defender. The contract isn't bad - but it's not good either. There is speculation that Miami may want to unload contracts - and Gordon's would be a prime one to head out the door. Milwaukee probably wouldn't have to trade any premium prospects, plus they could probably get some cash sent back. The three years on the contract is a little long - but Gordon would serve as a stopgap until one of our lower level players - Isan Diaz or Keston Hiura, for instance - were ready. The PED stuff hanging over his head would likely drive down his price as well. The big scary thing is the PED suspension. If it happens again - that's a year suspension. If the club acquired Gordon, that would likely spell the end of Villar's tenure. Like I said to start, I'm just throwing this out for discussion.

Yeah, this pretty much seems spot on. He's taken a lot of criticism for his in-game skills. Of course, that's just part of managing - but still, the club expects more and they seem to have been pretty 'blah' the last couple of seasons. A new voice in the clubhouse is probably in order.

Brewers (84-75) 1B Eric Thames (L) 2B Neil Walker (S) LF Ryan Braun ® 3B Travis Shaw (L) RF Domingo Santana ® C Stephen Vogt (L) SS Orlando Arcia ® CF Brett Phillips (L) RHP Chase Anderson ® Cardinals (82-77) 2B Greg Garcia (L) CF Tommy Pham ® SS Paul DeJong ® 1B Jose Martinez ® RF Stephen Piscotty ® LF Randal Grichuk ® 3B Aledmys Diaz ® C Carson Kelly ® RHP John Gant ®

Phillips defense is pretty sweet. He is going to need it as he probably won't hit that much due his his strikeout issues. There is nothing wrong with that - just what it is. Phillips has struck out about 30% of the time in the minors the last three years. That's awfully high. He has, however, mitigated that by walking between 10-14% of the time. In the majors (limited sample size) he's about about a 10% walk rate and 35% strikeout rate. If he can bring the K rate down to the 30% range (which I think is possible as many of his initial strikeouts were on his first exposure to big league pitching), and can keep a 10% walk rate - that's not bad. Maybe hit .250-.260, play good defense, provide value on the base paths and hit 15 HRs. It's kind of what we had hoped Keon would do at the position this year. Because of the high strikeout rates, I don't think Phillips is going to hit for a high average. He still needs to take a couple of steps forward, but there's a lot to like.

I don't think he's supposed to play at all over the next few games.

This is a huge deal in my book. The offense hasn't been great. The big question is how do you improve? One problem we have is that we have a lot of good - but not great - players. That's not a bad thing, but improving from good to great can cost a lot. Is Hosmer better then Thames/Aguilar? Yes. But is Hosmer at $20M (for many years) better to have than Thames/Aguilar at $5.5M? I don't think so. There's immense value in financial flexibility, and when we sink superstar dollars into a player who give us an incremental push improvement - it's not the best use of our dollars. To me, the best way to improve is by identifying the poor areas of production. That would be 2B and CF. The potential to improve 2B is there if Villar can rebound (big question), and the potential to improve in CF is there in Brinson and Phillips over Broxton. The Brewers really lack superstar position players. To get one costs a lot - either in prospects or in free agency. Thus, the best way for us to get an all star caliber player is to home grow one. Right now, the guy who has the tools is Brinson - but he's had injury issues and he's no sure thing. But if anyone is likely to become a consistent all star - he's the guy. The tough part is that there is no easy answer. Getting an all star caliber guy isn't cheap or easy. 'Letting young guys get better' is a strategy - but a very dicey one. But for the most part, that's what I would do.

I agree here. You don't mess around. Drake is 7th guy in a bullpen. Bring in Swarzek or someone more reliable.

Suter really struggles the third time through a line up. I wish they had pulled him already.

Suter's best velocity for the day is 87mph.

At this point, we pretty much have to win out. Rockies can go 1-2 - and we would need to go 4-0. That would tie us for the last wildcard - forcing a one-game playoff (which would get us to another one-game playoff!). If the Rockies go 0-3 the rest of the way, we could go 3-1 and force a tie - or go 4-0 to win the spot outright. Sadly, the Rockies finish out against the Dodgers, who have home field clinched - so they don't have a huge incentive to play their best players. They don't have the best record nailed down yet, which would determine Home Field advantage in the WS. I'm hoping they still want to chase that record still. I forgot the home field in the WS isn't determined by the all-star game anymore. Nice. Gives the Dodgers some incentive.

I think there are some C - Pina and Vogt. No one likes Vogt's defense, but he's a gritty battler - plus the other options aren't good. 1B - Thames and Aguilar. Seems to have worked okay. Not great, but decent. No better options (unless you can move Braun or Santana here). 2B - Big question. I'm guessing that - barring a terrible spring - Villar gets the gig again. The club will challenge him to rebound. There will be the temptation to sign Walker, but I'd be wary. He's still a decent player, but he's had injuries the last few years - including a back problem. That kind of thing can really affect a guy. I think it's started to affect his defense - which used to be pretty solid. He's 32, and I just don't see him getting better. I'd rather play for more upside. SS - Arcia - no questions here. 3B - Shaw - no questions here. INF - Sogard - left hander who can play decent defense, get on base - and step in at 2B if Villar falters. UT - Perez - He's our super utility guy - playing everywhere and anywhere. He's not great, but he is cheap and valuable. We could take trade offers, but I doubt anyone offers a ton for him. OF - I think that between Santana, Braun, Brinson and Phillips. While you can't start all these guys every day, there are 486 starts to divvy up. That's about 120 starts apiece (all you expect from Braun at this stage). Add in some DH opportunities, defensive replacement situations, pinch hit opps - and you can get those guys 500 ABs each (and that's not even really looking at injuries or ineffectiveness). SP - Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader and FA signing. As much as Hader has been great in relief, the club will need to give him a try at starting again. The upside is simply too high. With Nelson down, the team will then add a starter. Nothing fancy. Someone to plug a hole for a year or two. If Nelson comes back, whoever is doing worst will get replaced. Same could happen with regard to Corbin Burnes. He could be brought up by mid-season due to injury or ineffectiveness. If Guerra looks good, he may displace Woodruff. RP - Knebel, Swarzek, Hughes, Suter, Free Agent, assorted options (Barnes, Drake, Lopez, T. Williams, Wang, Wilkerson probably forgotten a few guys). With Hader in the rotation, the club will make a couple of free agent signings. I'm betting Swarzek. It will cost a lot - $6M per (or more) for three years, but our lack of payroll will allow us to splurge. If not Swarzek, then another good reliever, like Pat Neshek. I think we will add another 'proven' type reliever. Maybe not as expensive as Swarzek (but who knows). Adding the likes of Neshek and Swarzek would greatly solidify the pen. Free agents who leave: Walker (unless the club really thinks Villar is junk), Garza, Torres Traded: Broxton. Just don't see the space going forward. He's limited as a player, and the club will go with the upside of Brinson/Phillips. Don't know what Broxton can get, but just not any room. Tasks: 1. Figure out 2B situation 2. Sign two free agent relievers (one being Swarzek) 3. Trade Broxton 4. Sign a free agent starting pitcher 5. Resign Sogard Those are my guesses

At this point, we pretty much have to win out. Rockies can go 1-2 - and we would need to go 4-0. That would tie us for the last wildcard - forcing a one-game playoff (which would get us to another one-game playoff!). If the Rockies go 0-3 the rest of the way, we could go 3-1 and force a tie - or go 4-0 to win the spot outright. Sadly, the Rockies finish out against the Dodgers, who have home field clinched - so they don't have a huge incentive to play their best players.

Reds (67-91) CF Billy Hamilton (S) 3B P. Kivlehan ® 1B Joey Votto (L) 2B Scooter Gennett (L) RF Jesse Winker (L) SS Jose Peraza ® LF Adam Duvall ® C Stuart Turner ® P Sal Romano (L) Brewers (83-75) 2B Eric Sogard (L) 1B Neil Walker (S) LF Ryan Braun ® 3B Travis Shaw (L) RF Domingo Santana ® C Stephen Vogt (L) SS Orlando Arcia ® CF Brett Phillips (L) P Brent Suter (L)

Reds (66-91) CF Billy Hamilton (S) SS Zack Cozart ® 1B Joey Votto (L) 2B Scooter Gennett (L) 3B Eugenio Suarez ® RF Scott Schebler (L) LF Adam Duvall ® C Tucker Barnhart (S) P Homer Bailey ® Brewers (83-74) 1B Eric Thames (L) 2B Neil Walker (S) LF Ryan Braun ® 3B Travis Shaw (L) RF Domingo Santana ® C Stephen Vogt (L) SS Orlando Arcia ® CF Brett Phillips (L) P B. Woodruff ®

1 down, 17 to go...

6-0 run for the Crew begins today!!! Let's do it.

Reds (66-90) CF Billy Hamilton (S) SS Zack Cozart ® 1B Joey Votto (L) 2B Scooter Gennett (L) 3B Eugenio Suarez ® RF Scott Schebler (L) LF Adam Duvall ® C Tucker Barnhart (S) P Deck McGuire ® Brewers (82-74) 1B Eric Thames (L) 2B Neil Walker (S) LF Ryan Braun ® 3B Travis Shaw (L) RF Domingo Santana ® C Stephen Vogt (L) SS Orlando Arcia ® CF Brett Phillips (L) P Zach Davies ®

I've got to ask, gregmag: worse than Sal Bando? I still have fond memories of a blistering screed you posted here years ago about Bando. I think Bando was just an idiot. How he kept his job so long is a testimony to the incompetence of ownership during that time. Perhaps he was a jerk as well -- don't really know. I just know he was a horrible GM who set the franchise back years because of his poor decision-making.

I don't see the Logan Schafer comparison. Schafer was a fringe prospect with several good/solid tools - but no great ones. I had hopes he could be a decent CF - but the bat never translated to the big league environment. Most people viewed his upside as a fourth OF or a left handed half of a platoon. No one ever accused Schafer of having 20+ HR potential. Or an 80 arm. His minor league OPS is .746. Phillips' minor league OPS is .846 (although aided at times by good hitting environments). Phillips possesses far greater potential (but like all prospects, no guarantees) than Schafer ever did.

Folks, we did a post regarding how we can improve the quality of the in game threads. Please read here if you have not: viewtopic.php?f=65&t=35914

Just watching Braun this year, I think you can see he isn't quite what he used to be. I'm just guessing, but I think all the little nicks and dings - along with age - have caught up with Braun a bit. That's not a shocking thing. He's been playing the game for a long time. He's almost 34. It happens to most players. That said, he's still a really, really good hitter - the best on the team (when healthy). If he can start 130 games in a year - I think that is good for him. If he does that, stays mostly healthy, he can still be a 25HR, .300 hitter. Maybe 22-25 guys can do that on a consistent basis - so that's still pretty good. I just wish Braun's defense was better.

Phillips throw was the second hardest throw from the OF in the majors since the info was started being tracked in 2015.