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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    Pagan can't play CF very well any more. He was awful in 2015, and the Giants only put him there last year for four games.
  2. Matt Breen
    Shaw is a slow, unathletic, defensively challenged 1B who will likely get eaten up by higher level pitching. Yes, he could hit 30 HR - but he'll likley hit .220 and strike out a lot and play bad defense. I've had enough of those kinds of players. Of course, now that I've said that, it means that Shaw will be an all star a few years from now.
  3. Matt Breen
    I dislike the opt out clause because it puts all the risk with Milwaukee. If he does well, he opts out and gets more money from someone else. If doesn't, he sticks us with a crappy contract. I guess the upside is if he does really well he can become good trade bait at the deadline. But even that's likely limited, since he could opt out of the contract of whatever team trades for him. That means 2-3 months of the guy for any team that traded for him. Two months of Chapman got the Yankees a great package. But Chapman is pretty unique. Holland was pretty amazing for a few years - but I think it's asking a lot to think he could come back to the levels he pitched 3-5 years ago. The Brewers are one team that can offer Holland a guaranteed closer position (assuming we are willing to do that). That's worth a lot to Holland. Right now, a contract with an opt out seems to generous for the guy.
  4. Matt Breen
    Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs should get to the Brewers soon as well. He's currently doing the NL Central - Pittsburgh and Cincy are done - so Milwaukee can't be far behind.
  5. Matt Breen
    One thing nice about good defense is that it tends to be cheaper than offense. That seems to be changing somewhat - at least in the eyes of some teams - but in arbitration, for instance, things like HRs pay big bucks. Good defense does not.
  6. Matt Breen
    I believe Hendrickson sat around 90-92 (at best), or maybe it was even slower than that. Wasn't his out pitch supposed to be a big 12-6 curveball? Problem was, he could never throw it for a strike, and it was really slow (not THAT huge of a problem, plenty of pitchers have slow curveballs). I also don't think there was a big MPH difference from his curve to his fastball - which was pretty lifeless. I remember watching him pitch in MLB and, aside from falling behind every hitter, I wondered how he was ever going to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. It was ugly. You're correct - Hendrickson had a nasty curveball. When it was working, it was a thing of beauty. Too bad it didn't work that often.
  7. Matt Breen
    He would send private messages to people. I got one. And it was for the weirdest things. I said something like, "I think Hendrickson is best as a starter as he relies on his curveball and I think he's best when he gets into a groove." It was pretty harmless, but the guy PMed me saying Ben would be good as a reliever and I didn't know what I was talking about, etc. It was very strange because I didn't know who he was at the time. He wasn't super rude to me - but I've heard some people got some really combative messages.
  8. Matt Breen
    Totally agree here. It's depth and breathe of talent. It's a huge deal - something I think people often like to ignore. I've said this before, but too many times Milwaukee has played really bad players because we lacked depth. Overbay, Gonzalez, Yuni, Izturis, etc. Those kinds of players had no place getting significant playing time on a team that was hoping to contend. Fangraphs did a study that showed something like 20% of our at bats during a 3-4 year span (I think around 2012-14 or so) were taken by replacement level guys or worse. Poor depth and lack of financial flexibility just kills a club like Milwaukee. Adding talent in any way possible and having quality depth is a way to help us win down the road.
  9. Matt Breen
    Good grief, that's a name I had almost been able to forget. Careful. Ben's dad might come after you.
  10. Matt Breen
    For no reason other than it's funny:
  11. Matt Breen
    Or maybe we should curse you for having the read the same arguments made over and over and over
  12. Matt Breen
    Contend is difficult to predict when so many of your pieces are still minor leaguers. I've said 2018 is the year where the club will be 'interesting'. Doesn't mean good - or bad - just interesting. As we've seen with every team, there's just so many elements involved in a team's success - and to try and predict a young club is the most difficult. I'm just going to enjoy the young players, and hope they succeed. After that, we'll see when it all comes together.
  13. Matt Breen
    In some way, I'm hoping Braun gets traded just to see what the return is. I still think the return is going to be minimal. People are throwing around 2-3 top 100 guys. I'd be happy with one. But again, maybe I'm wrong on his value. But that's why I'm intrigued about what he will actually fetch (assuming he's dealt).
  14. Matt Breen
    I don't know if Parra is that useful anymore. 2.4% walk rate last year. Sub-.300 OBP - in Colorado. In 2015, I think we got Parra at his absolute best. Over the last five years, his best average (outside of 2015) is .273. I don't want to discount his fine 2015 season, but that appears to be the aberration. The guy got hot and had a good year. But the reality is that he's probably lucky to break a .700 OPS at this point of his career. His ability to walk has just abandoned him. If Parra played good defense, a .700 OPSing super-sub is fine to have. But sadly, he's not that good of a fielder anymore. Like a lot of people, he seems to have just put on some weight over the last few years - not fat - just filled out from his younger days. He looks stronger than he did, but I think he's lost a bit of quickness - and it hurt him in the field and at the plate. Defensive metrics are really down on Parra the last couple of years as well - and I think if you see him in person, you'd agree. I don't think anyone wants Parra in CF anymore. Finally, the guy makes $19.5M over the next two years. No way I want part of that money. I'll take Garza's contract and be done with it this year. Parra was a solid player for Milwaukee a couple of years ago, but I don't want that success to cloud the fact that he's not been successful since leaving.
  15. Matt Breen
    Holy crap. I knew it was quite different, but hadn't seen the actual numbers.
  16. Matt Breen
    Nothing big here - just former Brewer Yovanni Gallardo gets dealt by Baltimore to Seattle for OF Seth Smith. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/mariners-trade-seth-smith-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html Gallardo was bad last year as he had some injury issues. I loved Yo when he was with Milwaukee, but we traded him at the right time. I hope he does great in Seattle.
  17. Matt Breen
    Steamer released its projection for Thames: .272 BA, .350 OBP, .515 SLG%, wRC +124, 2.5 WAR That's pretty great - and Dave Cameron talks quite a bit about Thames' different projections: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-that-eric-thames-projection/
  18. Matt Breen
    That was great. Thanks for posting, Mass. Lots of really good detail on each of the players.
  19. Matt Breen
    Word is that the Dodgers are being really stingy with their prospects. I don't blame them, but as you note, they seem to be low balling teams. However, the deal with Oakland they made last summer wasn't anything to sneeze at. In the end, I imagine it will be DeLeon and a couple of lower level guys. They are reluctant to give up guys they think could be all-star level players. I don't think they see DeLeon as a top of the rotation guy, but Alvarez and Buehler have that kind of potential (even if they are a lot further away from the majors). The Dodgers should be peddling Willie Calhoun - he's a DH/LF type best suited for the AL.
  20. Matt Breen
    Door B. You take the WS win. With 30 teams in the league, you're gold if you can win one in a decade. I think most people would take the guaranteed WS, including Mark A. But that's not how the game works, because no one can guarantee a championship. And the best way to win a championship is getting into the dance as often as possible with the best team you can afford. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
  21. Matt Breen
    I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you. Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more. Thanks for the reply. Appreciate you taking the time to do so.
  22. Matt Breen
    I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.
  23. Matt Breen
    As of today, I think that's the rotation. Some of us really want to send Peralta or Garza to the pen, but I just don't see that happening. At all. I will add that regarding Garza, his potential value lies as as trade bait - and thus as a starting pitcher. If he can have a good first half, someone will likely want him not just for the rest of 2017, but for 2018 as well, when he has a relatively cheap $5M option (cheap if he's pitching well). If Garza is a starting pitcher sitting around a 4.00 or lower ERA at the all-star break - and has stayed healthy - there will be a market for him - even if he's only a back end of the rotation type guy. $10-11M or so is not bad to pay to an averagish starting pitcher for a year and a half (assuming he'd still be owed $5-6M in 2017, plus the $5M option for 2018). But it's pretty pricey for an average relief pitcher. So, if he pitches well, we can deal him for something and save a few million bucks. If not, you just release the guy at mid-season and plan on someone like Hader to take his spot in the rotation.
  24. Matt Breen
    As a note, Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs said to ignore the Eric Thames steamer projection. He said they literally don't have one for him yet. Sullivan slots him as right around league average - maybe a bit higher. Jeff Sullivan: I have him mentally slotted around 110-115. Ignore what it says right now on the depth charts; Steamer just doesn’t have a projection for him yet http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-122316/
  25. Matt Breen
    If Braun would become a DH, would his performance value increase since he isn't a negative in the field? I would think so with regard to WAR - but I figured I would check to see if anyone knew for sure. On the flip side, a team might not value his as much because they can't put him in LF if needed.
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