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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    I would argue it has nothing to do with living a free society. It is talented players never having to adjust to top tier talent like in the majors. Many of these young guys arrive, have success, then falter after the league makes an adjustment to their play. And let's not lump all the Cuban players into one basket of failures. Cespedes, Chapman, Jose Contreres, Yunel Escobar, Livan Hernandez, and lots, lots more have done just fine. Just like the major league draft of free society guys, there are some who pan out, some that don't.
  2. Matt Breen
    As expected, no one claimed Castillo, so he was sent to AAA.
  3. Matt Breen
    I'll put my two cents in about Matz (and the other Mets pitchers). The Mets have a really good rotation right now, but they lack depth. If they trade a guy like Matz - who is still a rookie - they really compromise things for themselves over the next few years. I guess they can keep hoping Bartolo Colon keeps pitching well, but that's probably not wise. Matz, Harvey, DeGroom, Syndergaard, Wheeler. That's a heck of a rotation for the rest of the decade. Otherwise, the Mets have one pitcher in their Top 10 list on MLB Pipeline - and he's out for the year with TJ surgery. They did draft a college pitcher this year, but that's a couple of year project at least to get him to the majors. Lucroy would be perfect for them, but I don't see the Brewers taking a combination of lesser minor leaguers, and I just don't see the Mets giving up a guy like Matz. He's too important for their future. I believe the Mets will roll the dice and go with smaller moves. They'll make some internal moves - bring up Nimmo, for instance, and hope the that d'Arnaud can come back and stay healthy, and hope that Granderson improves on his lackluster year. Then they'll do more minor moves - I could see targeting a guy like Aaron Hill, for example. Their big problem is not power, but just getting baserunners, so a guy getting on a .350 clip is pretty attractive. It never hurts to ask for a guy like Matz, but I don't think the Mets will deal him. Just my guess.
  4. Matt Breen
  5. Matt Breen
    We actually only control Nelson through his age 31 season. If you extend him - say a year - it's still in those prime years before guys often start declining. I'm not really an advocate either way - I think it really comes down to what kind of guy the club thinks Jimmy is going to be. If the club likes him, the extra year or two offers (potentially) some decent performance at a reasonable price.
  6. Matt Breen
    Red Sox have put Castillo on waivers. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/red-sox-place-rusney-castillo-on-outright-waivers.html He's owed $50M through 2019. He's looking pretty bad - .624 OPS at AAA this year. Really a huge waste of around $70M. I'm not advocating claiming him - but if you could get the Sox to pay 90% of the contract, he would be more interesting than a guy like Presley or Eric Young Jr. I don't see that happening, but you never know. Perhaps if there's some larger deal with Lucroy...
  7. Matt Breen
    I'm a little surprised by the Knebel optioning, but it was kind of obvious he wasn't right. Let him go down and work out the kinks for a couple of weeks. I think he can be a really good reliever.
  8. Matt Breen
    I've had no problem with Counsell. Not having to watch a million bunts and squeeze plays has been refreshing. I've liked the shifts, and he generally seems to play the odds - which I think is smart.
  9. Matt Breen
    I didn't expect this run up to the all-star break to go real well. These are good teams we are playing. We did okay for a while when we faced a bunch of scrub teams, we are facing a different caliber of team.
  10. Matt Breen
    Such a sad game.
  11. Matt Breen
    Rock was totally right. He was saying, "don't throw him a breaking ball." Cue the grooved breaking ball.
  12. Matt Breen
    This could be a long game.
  13. Matt Breen
    Houston is fascinating because so many guys are underperforming - Gomez, Rasmus, Correa, McHugh, Fiers, Keuchel, Giles. And not just a little - but by a ton. In some ways, the Astros have to believe guys will get better - and thus not panic. All that said, they could definitely use Lucroy. I would love to get Alex Bregmann, but I doubt that happens (in fact, I see him as potentially taking 3B sooner or later - let Valbueno move to 1B if the others guys can't improve). Otherwise, I don't know if there's any guy I love as a centerpiece (outside of Bregmann). Lot's of good guys I'd like to have, but not that one guy that really would help transform the team.
  14. Matt Breen
    Oswaldo is like any once highly thought of prospect - it can't hurt to look at him and assess if you think he can fulfill his one-time promise. A change of scenery can do wonders - JD Martinez, Arietta - even Villar - are examples. I'm not saying to try and get the guy. I'm just saying that it never hurts to investigate why he struggled. Perhaps the club feels there's something they can do to right the guy.
  15. Matt Breen
    This might be my biggest pet peeve. There is a HUGE area, where NO ONE WALKS, literally 8 feet away, and you decide to stop and have your conversation in the flow of foot traffic. This also goes for the people who stop 3 feet after getting a stadium give away to open it up and look at it. This is a form of people exerting control over others - often times so they feel better about themselves. It's just like the person who takes a long time to get their car out of a parking spot even though they know someone is waiting for it. Or the person who always shows up at a meeting late (usually coming in saying something like, "I'm sorry, I was in a meeting with Important Person and and just so busy, blah, blah, blah...") There are a million ways to do this, but it often comes down to control. You stop and make others wait, you're validating how important you are. You show up at the meeting late, you're telling everyone how important you are as well as exercising control because things won't start without you. It's kind of crazy, and often not even conscious. PS - the parking lot thing is real. I read a study that showed people take longer to get in their car and get out of a parking spot if they know someone is waiting for it.
  16. Matt Breen
    We have Nelson through his age 31 season. I could see an extension - get a year or two extra of control. You can still trade him if you want at some point. But there is the risk of a Peralta-like collapse, and then you're stuck with a fairly large contract. Jimmy just turned 27, so he is likely approaching his peak years. While some people feel Jimmy can be a #2 type, I see him more as a mid-rotation guy. He's slowly, but steadily gotten better, but I'm not counting on him being lots more than what he is. Sure, he might have a year or two where he exceeds that #3 'slot', but then again, he might have a year or two where he has falters. But a solid #3 is a good guy to have. Nothing wrong with that. If the club feels that Nelson is a good gamble to keep producing, locking him up for an extra year or two is fine, in my opinion. I also wouldn't fault them for not doing any such deal, but if it happens, I'm good with it.
  17. Matt Breen
    I think that if you get a Top 10 guy, you probably aren't going to get another Top 100 guy as well. But that's just a guess - it really depends on who the other Top 100 guys is. Ortiz is sitting at #65 on MLB Pipeline - but he's having a good season and already in AA. He's gunning for a Top 50 spot, and may very sell rate out better than Tate to some people (due to Tate's lackluster start this year). Jurado is another guy who could shoot up the prospect lists - someone Texas probably thinks of more highly than the prospect rankings do as of this time (as you noted earlier, he's doing great in the Cal League - a great hitters environment). But if you got Gallo, perhaps you could pry someone like Jurado as well. But getting a Top 10 prospect for 1.5 years of Luc is a pretty solid return. Maybe add in a borderline Top 100 guy as well. Again, that's my opinion.
  18. Matt Breen
    He started as a catcher, if I recall. Just took time to learn how to pitch. He walked a lot of guys early, and didn't seem to really learn to control his stuff until he was 29. Dude just stuck with it - Venezuelan League, Independent ball - he just went wherever he could get a gig. It's a great story. I hope he keeps it up.
  19. Matt Breen
    I agree that the Red Sox need starting pitching before anything else, so we might not be able to get the best return from them for Luc. How about the following deal with the Rangers though: Brewers get: Gallo Tate Jurado Rangers get: Lucroy Gallo is a bit of a wildcard as he appears to be an all or nothing type bat, so there's no guarantee that you'll get much consistency out of him. Tate has an intriguing arm, but is struggling so far this year in A ball, and Jurado appears to be an exciting young pitching prospect who's pitching well in the Cal league this year. Maybe we could even throw in a reliever in this deal and pick up another lottery ticket arm in Matuella? Would the Rangers consider a deal like this? Is Gallo off limits? I know there is no way we get Mazara from them now with the success he's had already at the MLB level. If not Gallo, what about getting Profar instead, since the Rangers already have Andrus and Odor up the middle? Gallo is generally considered a Top 10 prospect (Top 20 at worst) by most scouts. I doubt you get Tate - a Top 50 type guy - as well, even if he has struggled. He was the 4th pick in the draft last year for a reason. Teams don't give up on talent like that so quickly. The issue with Profor is you only get him for 3 years after 2016. Like with Wheeler, I hate to build a trade around a guy we won't control that long.
  20. Matt Breen
    Just a note - Molina got a 5-year, $75M deal on his last contract.
  21. Matt Breen
    yep. While I would be really intrigued by a top hitting prospect being added (I think we lack an elite power type prospect in the minors as well as top flight pitchers), I would love to add a great arm. They are riskier, but the need is there.
  22. Matt Breen
    Honeywell was put on the DL last month with elbow tenderness. I think he's a really good prospect, but you'd have to feel good that the elbow is okay before making him the centerpiece of a deal.
  23. Matt Breen
    Cardinals don't sign many free agents from other teams for big money. They focus on guys they know - they've gotten extensions to key players, giving them control of these types of guys for seven or eight (or more) years. They've done that with Molina, Pujols, Matt Carpenter, Wainwright and others. Holiday had been acquired in a trade, and hit free agency, but resigned. The Cards had an advantage in that he knew them and vice versa. Many of their free agent signings tend to be shorter term deals, such as Beltran and Berkmann. I think the only main free agents they have on their team right now are Peralta and Leake. Most of their guys are draft picks and trades. By not giving crazy deals, they are able to keep guys when they need them. They valued Molina a ton and gave him big dollars a year before hitting free agency. They splurged on Wainwright and Holiday when they felt they needed. But they let Heyward and Pujols walk - too much money, too many years. I think they are a great organization to emulate. Yes, they spend more than we do, but it's not like Dodger or Yankee spending. They draft well, give young guys a chance, make decent trades here and there, and have the flexibility to sign FAs when needed.
  24. Matt Breen
    Cardinals signed Mike Leake for 5-years, $80M this past off season.
  25. Matt Breen
    Norris will only have one full year of service time after this season - not two. Coming into 2016, Norris had 0.122 years of service time - that's 122 days. (This is according to Cotts and Baseball Reference). That means if he is brought up to the majors, he'll need 50 days to reach a full year. If that happens in 2016, Norris will have five years of control remaining (2017-2021). He could, potentially, be kept in the minors for most of the year, and thus a team would have 6 years of control.
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