As Milwaukee really could use pitching, and many want us to get a pitcher, and we are discussing our lack of success in drafting pitching, I wanted to see how successful Top 10 draft picks (pitchers only) have fared. I looked at a decade of picks (2000-2009) to do this. I figured we are, mostly, going to know if these guys have been successful or not. I listed the year, the pick’s name, draft spot, if the were picked from high school (HS), and then the bWAR they have accumulated thus far in their career. If they have no number next to them, then they never reached the majors or have a negative WAR. 2000 #2 - Adam Johnson #4 - Mike Stodolka (HS) #7 - Matt Harrington (HS) #8 - Matt Wheatland (HS) #9 - Mark Phillips (HS) #10 - Joe Torres (HS) 2001 #2 - Mark Prior - 16.5 #3 - Dewon Brazelton #4 - Gavin Floyd (HS) - 16.4 #6 - Josh Karp #7 - Chris Smith #8 - John Van Benschoten #9 - Colt Griffin (HS) 2002 #1 - Bryan Bullington #3 - Chris Gruler (HS) #4 - Adam Loewen (HS) - 0.3 #5 - Clint Everts (HS) #6 - Zack Greinke (HS) #9 - Jeff Francis - 9.3 2003 #3 - Kyle Sleeth #4 - Tim Stauffer - 3.5 #8 - Paul Malholm - 12.1 #9 - John Danks (HS) - 20.9 2004 #2 - Justin Verlandet - 44.1 #3 - Phillip Humber - 0.9 #4 - Jeff Niemann - 4.1 #5 - Mark Rogers (HS) - 1.1 #6 - Jeremy Sowers - 1.6 #7 - Homer Bailey (HS) - 7.3 #8 - Wade Townsend #10 - Thomas Diamond 2005 #6 - Ricky Romero - 9.7 #8 - Wade Townsend (2nd time selected in 1st round) #9 - Mike Palfrey - 5.6 2006 #1 - Luke Hochevar - 3.1 #2 - Greg Reynolds #4 - Brad Lincoln - 0.5 #5 - Brandon Morrow - 8.1 #6 - Andrew Miller - 2.3 #7 - Clayton Kershaw (HS) - 51.5 #10 - Tim Lincecum - 22.7 2007 #1 - David Price - 28.8 #4 - Daniel Moskos - 0.2 #6 - Ross Detwiler - 0.6 #8 - Casey Weathers #9 - Jarrod Parker (HS) - 6.1 #10 - Madison Bumgarner (HS) - 24.5 2008 #4 - Brian Matusz - 3.0 #9 - Aaron Crow - 2.4 2009 #1 - Stephen Strasburg - 16.1 #5 - Matt Hobgood (HS) #6 - Zack Wheeler (HS) - 1.8 #7 - Mike Minor - 3.9 #8 - Mike Leake - 12.1 #9 - Jacob Turner (HS) #10 - Drew Storen - 5.1 Some Results - Total # of players - 54 (I only counted Wade Townsend once) - High School picks - 20 - College picks - 34 - Guys never made the majors (or had a negative bWAR) - 22 (41% completely failed, 59% had positive WAR) - Guys who had a WAR of less than 5.0 - 36 (67.7% failure rate) - Guys who produced 10+ WAR - 11 (20.3%) - Guys who produced 20+ WAR - 6 - (11.1%) - HS guys who produced 5.0+ WAR - 6 (30.0%) - College guys who produced 5.0 WAR - 13 (33.3%) I realize that some guys are going to improve - Strasburg, Price, Bumgarner, etc. are all still good pitchers. And some of the guys with lesser numbers - guys like Storen (a reliever) and Wheeler (who has been injured but has shown promise) will improve as well. Also, the slotting of the draft picks probably makes things less volatile than they were during the time frame I am looking at. People are making picks based on money as much as they used to. Still, it's an interesting list. The odds of getting a really, really good player aren't great - maybe 10%. The odds of getting a flop are pretty high - roughly 2/3.