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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Where is Hader listed as the #84 prospect in baseball? I checked Fangraphs Top 200, and he wasn't there. Baseball America didn't have him either. Both those were pre 2015, so maybe I'm missing an updated list. MLB Pipeline, which is updated, doesn't have him in the Top 100. In fact, he's listed as Milwaukee's 14th best prospect - so he'd be way off that list.
  2. You are correct, it's highly unlikely we'll fare well with Jimmy Nelson as our #1. Some people see #2 pitchers in guys like Peralta, Nelson and Jungmann. While each might have a season or two that good at their peak, none of them project (in my mind) as consistent #2 pitchers. We throw around how guys are #1 or #2 types in our minor league system - but I don't see that in anybody at this time. Perhaps that's just the cynic in me - we love to have hope. But we haven't produced a top of the rotation guy since Ben Sheets. Gallardo was close, but not quite. Before that - Higuera? I see hope in some of our minor league guys, but I'm just a lot more cautious about what guys project to be. At this time, Milwaukee needs to hope that guys like Nelson can step up their game and become more than just #3 types. Add in some of the minor league arms, such as Lopez, Ponce and Kodi, and perhaps in a 2-3 years things gel together and you have a couple of the guys emerge as #2s and a couple as #3s, and then our offense does well and players stay healthy. With luck, someone special may emerge that we weren't expecting - like Kluber and Keuchel have done for their teams. This is why I've advocated for trading for big upside pitchers - even guys down in A ball - over lower ceiling (but closer to the majors) type players. The Dodgers aren't going to trade Urias at this point. Teams just don't do that. But maybe you can get a Syndergaard type player like the Mets did - while he's at A ball. It's easier said than done, but it took stones on the Mets part to trade away the winning Cy Young pitcher. Ultimately, you are right. We can't go toe to toe with guys like Kershaw. And maybe we won't have anyone that can in the near future. But maybe we can have better bats than the Dodgers. And better #2 and/or #3 pitchers. And play better defense. That's the hand we've been dealt. It's tough, but it's not impossible. For a team like Milwaukee, it will always be tough. We are always going to limited by finances, and signing Greinke as a FA isn't likely. Or signing a pitcher to a $30M a year extension isn't likely. Again, we just have to deal the cards we are played.
  3. I agree with this. We have who we have. You roll with it, do your best, and hope for a bit of luck. The 2011 Cardinals 'ace' - Chris Carpenter - had an ERA in the regular season of 3.45 with a 3.5 WAR (a team best). They won with average pitching and good hitting (5th most runs in the league) that was even better in the playoffs. Sure I'd rather trot out a guy like Kershaw or Hamels to the mound, but just having them there doesn't guarantee anything. You still have to play the game.
  4. Note: 2008 Phillies had Hamels. Halladay was still with Toronto.
  5. Not to diminish what Davies is doing (he's been great), but the Padres look like they just want to go home. Most of their players look like they are half asleep.
  6. I totally agree. I thought Lopez's performance was encouraging, but he has a ways to go. I do think he looked tired. This was only one game - so I'm not going to go overboard on judgements. There's no need to rush him. Bring him along when he is ready - whether that's some time in 2016 or 2017 or whatever.
  7. Quality depth. Excellent point. A few months ago a site (Grantland?) did a review of the Brewers from 2012-15 (I think those were the years) and found we gave 1/5 of all our at bats to sub-replacement level players. Yuni, Gonzalez, Francisco, Bianchi, etc., etc. We maxed ourselves out on payroll, then didn't produce enough young talent. When it came to filling in holes or replacing injured players, we were awful - and it may have cost us a playoff spot. We talk about how the Cardinals keep winning - well look at them. They produce quality talent from their minors, make decent trades, and thus have money to extend key players or sign free agents when they need to. I'm encouraged by the depth the Brewers' minor league system is developing. I think it will help out tremendously in the next few years.
  8. This. They need to be open to any deal at any time. None of this "wait to trade Lind when his value is higher" or "Braun is a team guy, he can't be traded." They have no obvious long term solution at C,1B,2B, or 3B. More young depth for starting pitching than they've had in well...maybe forever. But no guarantees they're all set there, by a long-shot. Plus, this entire team is incredibly right handed. So what does that mean? Be open to absolutely anything if it makes sense for a team to start competing (for real) in 2018. That means no Segura, Lucroy, Lind, Garza, KRod, Gennett and probably no Braun. Even Peralta can be dealt if the price is right. I really do get they need to consider selling tickets, future TV contracts, etc. But a few years in a row of 75-87 won't exactly make people rush to buy season tickets. And that's exactly what will happen if they try to keep the team "competitive" instead of rebuilding. This pretty much says it all. Be flexible, be aggressive, but recognize we aren't that good and need to build for the future. Pretty much anything should be on the table if it fits that goal. I'm not saying to deal guys just to deal guys, but we should be open to talking with clubs, and making moves if we get a good offer. We're building for 2018 - to think we can make the playoffs next year is a longshot. Regarding Lind - I would advocate moving him this off season. I don't think his value really can grow if you wait until mid-season. His numbers are about as good as you can expect and he's been healthy. He's an injury prone guy - and if his back flares up next May, we get a lot less (if anything). Also, there are a lot more teams that could use him this offseason rather than at the deadline next year. But if some of those teams are out of the playoff race next July, they won't want him - limiting our options. More teams, more competition for his services, (hopefully) brings a better return. Another thing is that if a team gets Lind now, they have the option to tender him a qualifying offer next year if he does well. While not a huge thing, it does offer the acquiring team an option that's not available if Lind were traded for mid-season.
  9. Schafer getting playing time might be Counsel getting an extended look at him. Yes, Schafer's got a track record, but letting the guy get some extended PT might his way of seeing if he's part of the future, whether as an option in CF next year, or simply as a reserve. I'm not advocating either way, but it's just a thought. The likely thing is that Reed was brought up as depth after guys like Braun and Herrera were sidelined (plus Peterson hurt his arm, and Davis his ankle). Getting a 10-game look at Reed just might not be a priority right now compared to a longer look at Logan. Again, I'm not saying what's right or wrong - just saying that might be their plan. We've mostly written off Schafer, but the club might be doing one last assessment on the guy, and seeing how he might fit in next year's plan (if at all).
  10. Just last month Counsell discounted Rogers as the starter at 3B due to his bad defense there. “I think we explored third base,” Counsell said. “To me, I don’t think he’s the answer as an everyday third baseman defensively.” Source: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/321094771.html The past couple of months (after A-Ram's trade) was the perfect time to get Rogers more PT at 3B if the club thought he had a future there. They didn't. Instead it was Herrera and Perez. Rogers at 3B is a lottery ticket now, so I don't even like arguing the point. I won't discount it entirely, but to me it's a dead issue.
  11. I said before the season that if Braun could start 140 games and produce an .850 OPS it would be a nice season. I read that he had 132 starts (played in 140 games) - so Braunie didn't quite reach that goal, but he ends with an .854 OPS, including 25 HR. It was a pretty solid season. Nice to see he could get through a year without the hand issue affecting him too much. I'd love to have seen Ryan hit .900+ OPS, but I wanted to keep expectations manageable (at least in my own mind). At age 31, coming off two injury plagued years - to get him on the field as much as they did, and to have him produce at a high level - that was a big win for Milwaukee. Let's just hope he can stay healthy and produce good numbers over the next few years. We've got Braun under contract for five more years, and while he'll be 32 this November, he looks in great shape and is still hitting the ball hard. Staying healthy is probably the biggest factor for the guy going forward.
  12. If the club deals Lind this off season, does Jason Rogers get a shot at a full time job? He's been playing great of late, bringing his season totals to .306 BA and an .834 OPS in 147 ABs. He's split his ABs pretty evenly between lefties and righties - and is actually hitting righties better than lefties. His splits have been pretty inconsistent in the minors, so I'm not sure what to think about him playing every day. However, he seems to work hard with this batting, takes his share of walks. He probably won't hit a ton of HRs, but if he could get you 15 HR and an .800 OPS over the course of a season, that would be pretty sweet. The lack of lefties in our lineup might be an issue.
  13. Building a team that gets to the playoffs allows you the chance to win a World Series. I really see them as the same thing. Of course your goal is to win a championship, but you have to get to the playoffs to reach that end. As people have noted, anything can happen when you reach the playoffs, so the more times you get there, the more chances you have to win the ring.
  14. Players were pumped to win tonight. Nice to see a little life in them, even if it might affect our draft slot. Nice seeing the Cards lose.
  15. Santana in CF is a stopgap until Phillips is ready. No one sees him there long term. It's just a way to get Santana, Braun and Davis all on the field at the same time (short of moving someone to 1B).
  16. Houston gave up four good prospects but got back some pretty good players. The Astros are primed to be contenders for a few years right now, and Gomez and Fiers fit needs to accomplish that goal. They decided they needed major league ready players now, so they made the deal. That's how you use your assets. Some times you trade prospects, some times you don't. There are a lot of factors involved. To me it's not about winning or losing a deal - it's making moves (or not) at the right time. Ideally, it benefits both parties. As for Gomez not playing well, he's got a playoffs (potentially) this year, plus 2016, to make an impact. If he cracks a home run in the Wild Card game to get them to the next step no one will really remember how he did in the regular season. And 4.5 years of Fiers is nothing to sneeze at. He's a solid veteran arm who will fill a big need for the club over the next few years. Should be noted that Houston did not deplete their farm system with this trade. That have some excellent prospects. So, unlike Milwaukee in 2011, they will continue to fill their ranks with some quality looking prospects.
  17. Does Gammons knows that Milwaukee has a team?
  18. I love Clark. Lara and Demi are projects. Even Kodi, Gatewood and Harrison have a lot of do before becoming really special prospects. But Clark just looks like he's going to hit. His strikeout rate is a high for my tastes, but his walk rate is great (over 15%), he hits over .300 and his OBP is well over .400. Plus there's the speed.
  19. I thought a new thread on organization rankings was in order for this off season. Fangraphs has published one, putting the Brewers at #11. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-30-minor-league-systems-statistically/ The Brewers are noted for making the biggest jump, going from being ranked 19th in position player depth, and 25th in pitching, a year ago, to 11th overall this year, including 3rd in pitching. You can look at the article for his methodology.
  20. I was thinking we'd do a new Top 25 Community Prospect list shortly after the season. With that in mind, I have this question: Do people like the idea of a fluid or 'living' top 25 list - meaning that when a guy graduates from the list (trade, major league playing time, etc.) - we remove him at that time, and bump up everyone a slot who is below that person. This is how ML Pipeline does things. If we had done it this year, we could have cycled off guys like Jungmann, Rogers and Knebel once they hit the 50 IP or 130 AB marks. It takes away the disincentive to NOT slot in a player simply because a person thinks he may be graduating from prospect status in the near future (example, Tyler Cravy has 37 IP right now, but he's not ensured a spot on the team next year by any means. A person can vote for him if they feel he merits a Top 25 selection, knowing that if he makes the team and reaches 50 IP, he'll just get bumped from the list.) The downside to the living list is that there's no easy mechanism to add players if you acquire someone. If we did make some move that brought in a good prospect(s), we could do some sort of quick poll to slot in these new guys - but that's just an idea. Thus, let's say we do a Top 25 in October, but in November we trade Adam Lind for a decent prospect. We could then do a quick poll and just ask people where in the top 25 the guy should slot - and add them in. Another thing about the living list is that it removes that snapshot in time (like Toby's old Power 50 lists). We can't look back and say, 'This is what we thought about our prospects at this particular time.' I'm not sure that's a big deal to people. Let me know what everyone thinks. I don't think either way is right or wrong, but I thought I'd ask people's opinions prior to the next Top 25 poll. Thanks.
  21. My favorite was long time relief pitcher Jose Mesa - aka Joe Table
  22. I'm really worried the Cubs than the Cardinals. They have developed faster than I anticipated (I figured they would be around .500 this year). If they added Price, they would have a heck of a rotation. Lester, Price and Arieta are all far better than anyone Milwaukee has (or probably any team). And in Bryant and Rizzo, the team has two all-star type players - maybe even MVP quality guys - who are only 24 and 26, respectively. Milwaukee's best hitters are in their 30s. Schwarber could be an elite bat as well. That gives them a great rotation and a great middle of the order. And then they have the financial flexibility to fill other areas as needed. It all makes for a pretty nice outlook for them. The big issue will come with injuries and aging. They've been pretty healthy this year, but they don't have a lot of depth in starting pitching. But again, money can help with that. Lester and Price (assuming they sign him) would be in their 30s - and that's always a risk sinking huge money in those types of guys. The Cardinals probably lack the star power the Cubs have (and can buy). They keep producing decent players, but I don't see anyone like Bryant coming along. I don't doubt they'll be good, but I don't know how long they can keep winning 90+ games.
  23. Price will get $30M a year (minimum) for eight years. Not a lot of teams can do that. Cubs, as noted, can handle that. Makes for a formidable rotation (Lester, Arrieta, Price). Chicago can throw money like that around because their position players are so cheap. The Dodgers will also be a factor, assuming Greinke becomes a free agent. And the Yankees have a ton of money coming off the books after 2016, so they could easily make a play. Toronto has an outside shot since Price seems to be enjoying his time there, and they don't have many big long term contracts outside of Tulo and Martin. My sleeper team for Price is Houston. They lack an ace, and don't have many expensive players. That's a huge market (I think 4th in the country) and should start generating a lot more cash as the team improves. He'd be a perfect guy to build a rotation around.
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