Matt Breen

At some point you just gotta roll the dice. Nelson has been successful in the minors. He's got a lot of positives. He's also got some red flags (including his mediocre play last year in Milwaukee). Some people think he needs another pitch, others don't. Guys with far better pedigrees than Nelson have failed - while much lower rated guys have succeeded. I'm just happy the club putting their faith in him - like they did with Peralta two years ago. Now's the time to make the leap with Nelson. I don't expect him to be great, but if we can get a 4.00 ERA from him in his first full year, it's a solid start.

I'm betting it happens as well. The club's familiarity with K-Rod (and his expressed comfort level in Milwaukee) make him an obvious fit. I guess the big question is how much. I'm thinking (like others) around $5 million - maybe some incentives.

Henderson pitched pretty well in 2012-13, so if he can rebound to that level, it's a huge plus for the bullpen. Broxton, Henderson, Thornburg, Jeffress, Smith and Knebel can all bring some serious heat. And you have some other guys at AAA - Blazek, Goforth, Hellweg, Pena - who can throw hard and might help out at some point in 2015. Let's hope guys get healthy (and stay healthy), and the younger guys develop into major leaguer pitchers instead of hard throwers.

I always wondered why Willis didn't convert to being a LOOGY. Lifetime splits: .562 OPS vs lefties / .788 OPS vs righties Even in the last couple of years pitching in the majors, he was effective: 2011: 75 IP / .369 OPS vs lefties / .828 OPS vs righties 2010: 66 IP / .581 OPS vs lefties / .937 OPS vs righties Perhaps the club sees him strictly to be a lefty specialist (and emergency left handed pinch hitter). I guess if he looks healthy and committed to being a specialist, he might work out. You just have to put him in a position to thrive (LOOGY).

Question: Do people want to do a new Top 25 before the season starts, or should we wait until after the season? I'm happy to tabulate votes and put together results again. Thoughts?

Perfectly said. The international market for these guys is crazy. I have no problem with established guys - like Jose Abreu - being treated as free agents, but the rules on the younger guys is just warped.

They're talking a $30-40 million signing bonus for Moncada - plus you'd have to pay a 100% tax for going over the international signing limit - that means he's a $60-80 million investment. And there's some speculation the bonus could go towards $50 million - making it a $100 million signing. It's fun to think about it, but there's almost no way we even get involved in this.

One thing about Nelson: at AA and then at AAA, he's been mediocre the first 50-100 innings. But each time, he's adjusted and went on to produce very good results. 2012: AA - 46 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.543 WHIP 2013: AA - 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 1.130 WHIP AAA - 83 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.488 WHIP 2014: AAA - 111 IP, 1.46 ERA, 0.919 WHIP ML - 69 IP, 4.93 ERA, 1.457 WHIP I'm hoping that the experience is exactly what Nelson needed. It's a big jump from AAA to the majors, so nothing guaranteed, but if he can produce around a 4.00 ERA (and I think he can), he'll be a solid 5th starter.

That I did. Thanks. I fixed.

My 2 cents: The trade looks like a decent haul for Milwaukee. You have three guys who have potential to be major leaguers, and it's a nice mix - a couple of guys on the cusp, and one intriguing younger guy with a big arm. It's the kind of thing the club needs to do more often. It also frees up $9 million (whether we get to spend all that is another story), which allows us to add a quality bullpen arm or two. Things to like: Sardinas was as the #72 prospect in baseball prior to 2014. MLB.com had him at #76. He was in the 80s the previous year. No, he's not a 25 HR hitting 3B, and perhaps his star dimmed a bit last year, but the guy is still fairly well regarded. He provides depth at SS (providing an alternative if Segura falters), and a right handed bat to platoon with Scooter (if the team decides that's best). Depth is crucial to teams like Milwaukee. If we want to make the playoffs, we can't afford to keep trotting out guys who playing badly. Knebel looks like a guy ready to be a very good major league reliever. He's dominated hitters in the minors, and he only needs a chance in the bigs. Not a bad guy to get. The arm issues are concerning, but I like the risk involved. Diplan is exactly the kind of guy the Crew needs to add in trades. Very young, but with lots of upside. Milwaukee so often trades for guys with low upside - usually because we're looking for players close to big league ready. So we got one of the top international prospects of 2013 (Diplan), a 1st round pick in from 2013 (Knebel) who has dominated in his time in the minors (albeit as a reliever), and a top 100 prospect infielder who, while he doesn't have great upside due to his lack of power, is still only 21, plays exceptional defense, and could be a quality starter. For one year of Yo, I think that sounds pretty good. Sure, all these guys could end up being junk. But trading established guys for minor leaguers is inherently risky. But that's what we need to do.

I think I'd go with Joba, but I bet the club brings back K-Rod. Joba would be cheaper, and I'm terrified of K-Rod after he gave up 14 HR last season, but I think K-Rod will come back on a reasonable deal because he knows he'll be the closer. Just a guess. Then add in a left reliever, and maybe a minor league invite type player (such as what we did with Duke last year), and I think the team is done in the bullpen department. That would leave us with a lot of questions, but a lot of options. I can live with that. Probably locks: K-Rod or Joba (or some other free agent) Broxton Jeffress Kintzler Smith Lefty reliever Probably locks if healthy: Henderson Thornburg (could be shifted back to the rotation) Pick from the rest: Knebel (who we got in the Gallardo deal) Wooten Ariel Pena (out of options, but not sure how is arm is doing) Blazek (out of options) Anyone you sign to a minor league deal Potential sleepers who could contribute at some point during the season: Goforth Strong Hellweg (coming back from TJ surgery)

Nick Punto signed with Arizona. That means he won't be on our team!

Braves designated Tyler Pastornicky today. Can play SS and 2B. Right handed hitter. Good success in the minors - has hit for .297 BA at AAA over the past four years. Was once seen as starting caliber guy by the Braves, but has only hit .243 in the big leagues (239 ABs - most of those in 2012). Not sure how his defense is at either SS or 2B, but he might be a potential utility guy. Stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pastoty01.shtml

Aaron Harang for one year and $5 million. The signing isn't anything that big of a deal, but after throwing 200+ innings and a 3.57 ERA last season, the dollars seem a little light, even if Harang will be 37 next year. Still, the signing removes from the market the last pitcher who won't cost an arm and a leg who had a truly decent year in 2014. Aside from Shields and Scherzer, the best starters are probably Roberto Hernandez, Chris Young and Vogelsong. All are pretty much back of the rotation types. Once Shields and Scherzer are off the market, it might make a player like Gallardo or Lohse - guys better than anyone in free agency - more attractive in a trade. That's probably especially true once spring training rolls around, and teams have injuries.

Here's an article about how Joba would fit with the Crew: http://www.brewcrewball.com/2014/12/24/7445329/dumpster-diving-for-relievers-part-1 The author likes Joba due to his ability to induce grounders as well as strikeouts. He predicts a contract of between $2.75-3.75 million.

Perhaps people on the board who coach and study this kind of thing more can help me out - but looking at Taylor's approach (particularly the wide stance), it doesn't look like he'll generate a lot of loft and/or power out it. Am I wrong? Thanks.

Bonifacio has played SS for a total of 5 games over the last three years. I think that goes to show what teams think of his ability at the position. As for the Brewers adding him, he would have been a solid guy to backup 2B, 3B and CF. He hits lefties better than righties, but not huge (.683 OPS vs lefties, .621 OPS vs righties over the last three years). However, he's likely going to get a lot more playing time with Chicago, who lack a clear 2B. All thing equal, why take a utility position with Milwaukee (or any other club) when you are the front runner for an every day gig on another team. People want Milwaukee to make some moves - improve the bench, improve the bullpen - but with the budget pushing $110 million, I don't think anything is going to happen unless it's a cheap ($1M or under) addition. Anything major will mean clearing payroll - which means dealing a starting pitcher or Parra. I just don't see that happening. Melvin will see how thing play out in spring training with guys like Rogers, Gomez, Herrera, Schafer and Jimenez. Perhaps they'll make a move toward the end of camp (when marginal players for other teams are often available), but unless someone is seriously injured, I doubt anyone major is brought in - now or in the future.

Brewers had 5 'B' grade prospects in 2014. For 2015, we have 9. That's some significant progress with our system. Only one 'B' prospect dropped (Roache), while one graduated (Nelson). Two new guys (Harrison and Medeiros) got B grades, and a bunch of players improved. Again, that's nice progress.

The Brewers letting Molitor go was heartbreaking. I knew why, but it was really hard to take. We really low balled the guy, basically forcing him out. I think we offered him a one-year deal for around $2.5 million (a pay cut), and he ended up getting $13 million over three years from Toronto. I can't blame him for walking. But it still really stung. The age thing (Molitor was coming off his age 35 season) was certainly an issue. But the team was really more about cutting corners than being competitive.

Really? That's not how I remember it at all. Someone more in tune with the minor league forum can probably tell the true story, though. Most people wanted Brantley. I think if the club had missed the playoffs, we would have been able to pick the player (and given them Green). Since we made the playoffs, Cleveland got to pick the player - and took Brantley. I loved Brantley's high OBP. The guy is one of the few players to come up through the system to actually take walks (and not strike out a ton). I thought he could be a .280-.300 hitter and get on base at a .350+ %. I never thought he'd be a 20 HR guy - maybe 10. But even a 10 HR guy who gets on base 35% of the time is pretty nice to have.

If Milwaukee liked Swisher, they should have just looked to acquire him before getting Lind. He's a switch hitter, and doesn't have big platoon splits (he tends to hit for more power from the left side, but for a lower average/higher strike outs). He could have played 1B full time. If they could have gotten Cleveland to take on 1/2 of the $30 million owed, he would have cost about the same as Lind. Again, that's if the team liked Swisher. The guy was awful last year. He's 34 - not exactly young. He had surgery on both his knees in August. I suspect that all those factors are scaring most teams - including the Crew. Even at $15M it seems like a lot of risk. I look at it this way - if he were a free agent, what would he be worth? I think of the deal Morse signed last year with the Giants - 1-year/$6M. Corey Hart got a similar contract coming off a a major injury ($6M plus incentives). To me, that's probably about what I'd risk on a guy like this. While the Indians may be open to moving Swisher now (especially if freeing up payroll is important), I would think it would best if they sit on him until spring training - wait and show off to the baseball world that he's healthy again. If so, they'll probably get a better return - especially once other teams have injuries (and failures) and positions become open. Of course, this gambles on Swisher coming back healthy. The surgery was on the meniscus in both knees. If I'm correct, it's like a shock absorber in the knee. The issue was caused by simple wear and tear - nine straight years of averaging around 150 games a year will take its toll on a guy.

Byrd (and $4 million) go to Cincy, minor league pitcher Ben Lively heads to Philadelphia. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/reds-to-acquire-marlon-byrd.html Seems like an under whelming return for Byrd. Lively, a 4th round pick in 2013, was ranked 8th on Cincy's top 20 prospects list by MLB.com. Perhaps more parts will be announced. Edited to show the amount of money Philly is sending to Cincy)

2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera is going to Tampa for 1-year, $8 million. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/rays-to-sign-asdrubal-cabrera.html I thought someone would give the guy three years. Jed Lowrie got 3-years/$23 million. I thought Cabrera would get that, if not more. This could make Ben Zobrist available for trade since the Rays have Escobar at SS.

To me, this is a big plus for the team going into 2015. We don't have a #1 type pitcher (maybe not even a #2). But I think we can have six guys that can produce ERAs in the 3.50-4.00 range. That's solid (the average NL starter last year had a 3.74 ERA). That gives the team a chance every game. The depth is critical because we don't have a stud like Kershaw or Cueto to balance really mediocre (or even bad) back of the rotation types. In 2013, Milwaukee trotted out Hellweg, Figaro, Burgos, Gorzelanny and Hand for 35 starts. That's roughly 170 innings with an ERA that was somewhere around 5.50 with a 5-17 record. That will kill a team that doesn't have a dominant starter or two. We've often built our pitching staffs on a razor's edge - one injury or bad season cripples us. Having the depth is really nice. I have to say that I am not adverse to dealing a starter, but if the team wants to contend in 2015, it's a risky deed.

For all the talk about Aoki, why would the guy come to Milwaukee to be 4th OF? Of the top of my head teams like Cincy, Atlanta, Baltimore, ChiSox, Houston, Oakland, SF and Texas would probably have him in the lineup most of the time. I'm not saying all of these teams are going to want the guy, but Aoki can probably find a few places that will give him a full time job for at least two years. In Milwaukee he's not even a platoon player.