Matt Breen

If this is how we are doing business then we deserve to continue to struggle. You do not make decisions based on this. Catchers slow down a lot faster than other players, especially offensively. If we throw big money to a 31+ year old catcher, we get what we deserve. This was just one reason not the only one. I also suggested signing him to a 4yr/$60M deal with a portion paid out before 2018 in the form of a signing bonus. Let's say the bonus was for $8M which is dispursed ($2.5M in both 2015 and 2016 and $3M in 2017). This means we are paying Lucroy $13M in each of those four seasons. The bonus will likely be recouped through merchandising and player promotions before the extension even takes effect. This would allow the Brewers to retain Lucroy for his entire career (through age 35) while never paying him more than $13M in any single season.I'm not a fan of signing guys into their 30s, but one thing that you have to consider is value of the replacement. You let Weeks leave because you have Overbay. You trade Aoki because you have Davis. That's smart management of a team. However, the Brewers have no one in the minor league system (that I know of) that projects as an every day catcher. The drop off could be huge. I'm not saying you go out and sign Lucroy to an extension today. I think you can wait at least until after the June draft of 2015. We could potentially add a guy at this time. Or maybe next off season. Otherwise, you do what is suggested above. Sign Luc to the extension, give him some money early with a signing bonus spread out between 2016-17 to soften the blow of the contract later. If you can keep the extension to three years, even better. It should also be noted that other than Braun, we have no long term deals (unless Garza's fifth year vests). Here's how long we control current key players (the final year of control is listed): Luc: 2017 Maldonado: 2017 Lind: 2016 Scooter: 2019 Segura: 2018 A-Ram: 2015 Braun: 2644 Davis: 2019 Gomez: 2016 Parra: 2015 Gallardo: 2015 Garza: 2017 (has a 2018 vesting option) Lohse: 2015 Peralta: 2018 Nelson: 2020 Fiers: 2019 Thornburg: 2019 Smith: 2019 Jeffress: 2019 Most of our players in the latter part of this decade will be arby eligible types, or pre arby guys (such as Taylor, Arcia or Coulter). The team can probably afford to carry a larger contract (like a Lucroy extension), even if he is in the decline phase. Also, regarding Luc, he probably won't hit .300 at age 35, but he should retain solid value (barring an injury). Of course, we could trade a good player for a catcher once Luc is finished. But teams don't deal good catchers very often.

No. The Brewers equivalent would have been Peralta and Nelson ad neither of those guys is at the same level as Miller or Jenkins. Totally disagree that Jenkins is equivalent to Nelson. Jenkins has some nice potential, but he's had two straight years of injuries and never pitched above A ball. I don't think there's any way he's in Nelson's league at this time. The rankings someone posted above have him as a 45 overall. As a comparison, MLB has Jungmann, Wagner, Hellweg, Goforth, Gagnon and T. Williams ranked as a 45. I believe Nelson was a 55 when he graduated off the prospect list. Given his tools, Jenkins can certainly get better. The upside is there. But that's going to take some time. He's got a lot to prove against higher level batters - something Nelson has already done.

Crazy money. And Navarro wasn't bad last year. But I guess Toronto really wanted the guy. Better them than us.

Yesterday, the Cubs traded away $850,000 worth of 2014-15 international bonus slots in the deal that sent Tommy La Stella to Chicago from Atlanta. I read that the Cubs are going to spend big internationally during the 2014-15 time frame - just like the Yankees did last year. The Cubs, if I recall, did the same thing in 2013, and couldn't sign any big international free agents last year as part of the penalty for blowing past their allotment. Trading the slots might be a signal they are ready to splurge again. they know they are going to get nailed with the overage penalties, so what's an extra million - especially if they can use the slots to acquire a good player. I'm not sure how next year's class compares to last year's, but it will pain me if the Cubs load up their farm system some more. PS - There's no 2015 international signing thread, so I posted this here.

Whole thread on non tender candidates here: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=32130

John Sickels just did his look at the Braves ranked Kubitza as their #6 prospect, giving him a B- ranking. Not a bad looking player. He would fit the Brewers time frame perfectly - put him at AAA for 2015 and, if he does well, give him the inside track in 2016 at 3B. Here's Sickel's review: High strikeouts are a major concern (see Mike Olt and Matt Davidson). Given Atlanta's recent history, I can understand their willingness to shop him. High strike out rates are always a concern. Some guys seem to sink with them, others survive. Kubitza led the Southern League in strike outs - but he also lead the league in walks. All prospects have their risks. With all the strikeouts, you'd think he'd have a bit more power.

John Sickels just did his look at the Braves ranked Kubitza as their #6 prospect, giving him a B- ranking. Not a bad looking player. He would fit the Brewers time frame perfectly - put him at AAA for 2015 and, if he does well, give him the inside track in 2016 at 3B. Here's Sickel's review:

I think you're right on here, Monty. Someone like Gallardo or Lohse would be a nice trade match up, especially if Boston adds a FA like Sandoval or Headley. If that's the case, Cecchini is blocked. They did give him some playing time in the OF, but the Sox are stacked there. And moving him to 2B doesn't work because Pedroia is locked in long term. That makes Cecchini expendable. Also, Boston could use a middle of the rotation guy like Yo or Lohse. As for Mark A. allowing the team to pull the trigger - I could see it happening if we can then funnel the money back into other areas - like the bullpen. You could slide Nelson into the rotation, then add a bullpen arm or two, maybe a quality back up middle infielder. As an example, you could add a couple of guys like (this is just argument's sake - I don't necessarily think these are the exact players you add) Jason Grilli and Zack Duke, plus a middle infielder who can platoon with Scooter as well as take over for Segura (if Segura plays as bad as he did last year). Bonifacio is an example (although I don't know if he can play SS any more). You fill several needs with the - getting two quality bullpen arms, a decent back up infielder, and a potential 3B for the future - in exchange for one year of Lohse or Gallardo.

The name being thrown around is Garin Cecchini. Cecchini is the guy I would want. He's not a perfect prospect, but has some positives. Middlebrooks is massively flawed and would only take him for scraps. Cecchini is a career .298 hitting in the minors. He was outstanding in 2013 (his age 22 season), splitting time between A+ and AA, hitting a combined .322 with 94 walks. That produced a .443 OBP. A left handed hitter, Cecchini doesn't have a lot power, hitting only 7 HR in each of his last two seasons. The lack of power diminishes his stature to a degree, but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014. 2014 wasn't a great year for Cecchini. He hit .263 with a .341 OBP at AAA (he got 31 ABs in the big leagues and did fine - .813 OPS). His strikeouts spiked and his walk rate dropped. I read one review that said he was selling out his approach to try and generate more power. His defense is reportedly average - at best. Boston reportedly isn't sold on the guy as the future 3B due to his lack of power and fringy defense. But I think he's intriguing. I see a high on base percentage guy. Sure he's probably only going to hit 10-12 HR, but if he can hit .290 and get on base at a .350 clip, I'll take that. How his defense progresses is really important. If he can get close to average, there's some potential good value in him.

I saw that too and almost had a heart attack. However, I think they just listed it since Milwaukee was the last ML team he was associated with.

Cuddy might simply not want to spend what may be his last contract playing for a losing team. Not that the Mets are any great shakes, but the Rockies need to rebuild. And the Mets, as you note, have some nice young talent at the big league level or very near it.

MLB Trade Rumors put together a list of non tender candidates: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/non-tender-candidates-6.html Anyone jump out as potential Brewer targets? Position Players Yonder Alonso Alex Avila John Baker Gordon Beckham Drew Butera Everth Cabrera Ike Davis Alejandro De Aza Daniel Descalso A.J. Ellis Juan Francisco Kevin Frandsen Chris Heisey Travis Ishikawa Mitch Moreland Eduardo Nunez Jayson Nix Alex Presley Shane Robinson Gaby Sanchez Ruben Tejada Dayan Viciedo Eric Young Jr. Pitchers Anthony Bass Ronald Belisario Blaine Boyer Jhoulys Chacin Brian Duensing Juan Gutierrez David Hernandez David Huff Wade LeBlanc Kris Medlen Alexi Ogando Logan Ondrusek Fernando Rodriguez Esmil Rogers Anthony Swarzak Josh Tomlin Jonny Venters Travis Wood

I don't believe the Mets have the prospects that the Rockies would want in a deal for Tulo or Cargo. Actually, the Mets have a lot of nice prospects. Here's a list of top 100 guys from MLB. #10 - Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard #59 - Catcher Kevin Plawecki #60 - OF Brandon Nimmo #79 - Last year's top pick, Michael Conforto (would have to be a 'player to be named later' since you can't trade a draft pick for a year). #81 - 1B Dominic Smith #95 - Pitcher Rafael Montero And there's some young pitching in the majors right now, such as DeGrom and Wheeler. Start with Syndergaard, then add in a couple of other guys. That's not a bad haul. Mets prospect list: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=nym

I'm wondering if the Mets and Rockies are close on a deal for Tulo or Cargo. It's a round about way for the Mets to send their 1st round pick to Colorado.

I pray neither is on the roster in 2016. At some point this organization needs to address the future of 3B, otherwise we'll end up with nothing but crappy, aging, overpaid options.

You're talking at least 7-years and $175 million for Scherzer. He already turned down 6-years/$144M. An 8th year may be necessary as well. I'd love to have the guy, but $25 million (maybe more) a year for one guy, for that long of a span, is pretty brutal. One important consideration is that there no way the Brewers develop a #1 type pitcher like Scherzer for a long, long time. There's no one in the system that remotely projects as a top pitcher. That means we have to sign one as a FA, or trade for one (which would cost Lucroy or Gomez; or a bunch of our best prospects), or try and draft one (not likely in our position this year). As noted, if you want to fit $25M in our current pay structure you need to deal Lohse and Gallardo, then move Nelson into the rotation with Fiers, Peralta, Garza and Sherzer. Of course, the team might be willing to expand payroll, but that seems unlikely. It seems like a crazy move, but you never know in this game.

Former Brewer Casey McGehee was named the NL Comeback Player of the Year. After floundering in the majors in 2011-12, Casey went to Japan in 2013. He did well and received an offer from Marlins, landing the 3B job in spring training. McGehee went on to hit .287 with a .355 OBP while playing 160 games. His OPS was a pedestrian .712 due to a lack of power (only 4 HR), but he drove in 76 runs, and his 177 hits ranked 4th in the NL. Congratulations to Casey McGehee for his successful return to the majors. Casey was a fan favorite in Milwaukee and always seemed like a great guy. The AL award went to 35-year old pitcher Chris Young of Seattle. Young pitched briefly in the minors in 2013 (only 9 games), but came back this past season to throw 165 innings (with a 3.65 ERA) for the Mariners, helping the team win 87 games and almost make the playoffs. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11836898/miami-marlins-casey-mcgehee-seattle-mariners-chris-young-nl-al-comeback-players-year

I saw this from Bleacher Report - Top 100 prospects at the end of the season. It's a little old - from late September - but I had not seen it posted. The guy has Tyrone Taylor at 89. Arcia is not in the top 100, but he was on a list of 12 players who just missed - meaning he'd be ranked between 101-112. No other Brewers on the list. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2209149-mike-rosenbaums-official-year-end-top-100-mlb-prospect-rankings

The team we are assembling for 2015-16 is solid, but unlikely to make the playoffs in my opinion. Instead, we should have thought long term - aiming at being relevant in 2017 and beyond. We should have traded (this off season or during the 2015 season) Gomez, Gallardo, Garza, Lohse, Broxton, Maldonado, Parra, Kintzler and Estrada. Gomez should net a top 20 player (probably more), but we'll be conservative and just say the one guy. Gallardo and Garza could potentially land us a Top 100 guy. Perhaps Lohse as well. But let's be conservative, and just say the latter doesn't quite get us a top 100 guy - more of a fringe 100-150 type. With that in mind, I just picked some players in those ranges (one top 20 guy, two guys in the 60-90 range, and one guy more in the 100-150 range). I'm not saying we could get each of these guys specifically, but I'm just picking a guy who represents those ranges, just to try and put a realistic face on who could have potentially been in our organization. Here's the deals: Gomez - Top 20 pitcher such as Dylan Bundy from Baltimore. Should be in the majors in 2015. Gallardo - Top 100 3B such as Garin Cecchini from Boston - given 3B job next year Garza - Top 100 pitcher such as Sean Manaea from KC. Should hit the majors around 2016. Lohse - Top 100 player or fringe 100 player such as OF Steven Souza from Nats (led IL in hitting last season) - given starting job in CF in Milwaukee (even if he he's probably better as a corner OF) Broxton, Maldonado, Parra, Kintzler and Estrada won't net you a ton. They could be throw ins to complete trades, or maybe net bullpen arms, a good reserve or a low level player with some upside. But we won't count on them for anything major. I would trade Braun if I could, but right now, he's untradeable. Maybe in the future, but not now. Adding those four guys, here's a look at the 2017 team. I would be much more excited about this team than our current club. It's a lot of guys entering their prime years, mixed with some high upside youngsters, as well as a nice stable of potential starting pitchers. Salaries would not be outrageous, as all but Braun and Lucroy are in the arby or pre-arby years. The low costs would allow the team to make some targeted free agent signings if necessary, plus add quality back ups. Lineup C - Lucroy - age 31 (8th year) 1B - Braun - 33 (11th) 2B - Scooter - 27 (4th) or Segura - 27 (5th) 3B - Cecchini - 26 (3rd) SS - Arcia - 22 ® LF - Davis - 29 (4th) or Souza - 28 (3rd) RF - Coulter - 23 ® or Souza - 28 (3rd) CF - Taylor - 23 ® Pitchers Dylan Bundy - 24 (3rd) Sean Manaea -25 (2nd) Peralta - 28 (5th) Fiers - 32 (4th) Nelson - 28 (4th) Jungmann - 27 (3rd) Thornburg - 28 (4th) Smith - 28 (4th) Jeffress - 29 (4th) Henderson - 34 (5th) Other pitchers: Pena, Cravy, Wagner, Jed Bradley, Goforth, Gagnon, Wang, Wooten (I probably have forgotten some guys). Is the above lineup playoff caliber? I don't know. But I think it's potential is better than the 2015 squad. For 2015-16, you have a line up of Lucroy, Rogers or Clark, Scooter, Segura, Cecchini, Davis, Braun and Souza. Rotation is Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann and someone like Thornburg. By stripping the team of salaries, you could bring payroll down to less than $50M. Take $30M and invest wildly in international players in 2015 (similar to what Chicago and NY have done the past few years). This helps stock the minor league system with some top notch talent. We'd get some good draft picks in 2016-17, and by 2018 or 2019, we'd start to see some of the lower level talents become potential big leaguers. This puts a steady stream of high quality prospects on the road to Milwaukee. Of course, none of this is happening. We have A-Ram and Lind and so forth for 2015. Another .500 season will encourage us to 'go for it' again in 2016, then the bottom will likely drop out. You need a lot of prospects to be successful. For every prospect who succeeds, you have two or three who flop. Especially pitchers. So you need to load up on those guys to win.

Even with a few minor tweaks, I'd give them a small chance to make the playoffs. 1 in 10. Maybe 1 in 8. One early forecast gave the Crew a 1 in 40 chance of winning the World Series next year. Again, that's the World Series.

Trades are starting to happen, folks. The Astros have acquired catcher Hank Conger from the Angels in exchange for catcher Carlos Perez and right-hander pitcher Nick Tropeano. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/astros-acquire-hank-conger.html

I don't necessarily think 2015 is the last 'go for it' year. If the team can play to at least .500 ball in 2015, I wouldn't be shocked if they made another similar run in 2016 (and maybe beyond). After 2015, A-Ram, Gallardo, Parra and Lohse are free agents. That's $44M in salaries coming off the books. You can plug some holes with $44 million. 2016 is the last year of Gomez, as well as Lind and Broxton. So if the team does well enough in 2015, I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 is the last stab at 'going for it'. I just hope we don't trade young assets for one or two year stop gaps. I've said before that ownership and management have a 'if everything goes right, we can contend' strategy. It's mostly foolhardy, but does work on rare occasions.

I agree. His whining late in the season about not being used in high leverage situations rubbed me the wrong way. Not that he's in a "gots to go" situation, just that I don't see him as a must have for our bullpen next year. Disagree about Kintzler. The guy was quite good in 2013. Last year he had some injuries. Give up on him now and you're selling as low as possible on the guy. It's not like he'll break the bank - probably around $1 million next year. So I'd rather keep him. If he returns to his 2013 form, he's quite valuable, either to us or another team. And let's not forget how important depth is in this league. At worse, you bring Kintzler to camp and see how things shake out. Thornburg and Henderson are both coming off injuries, and if there are any injuries to to a starter, Nelson probably goes into the rotation. I'd rather have Kintzler on the mound than guys like Figaro or Hand or the ghost of Joe Winkelsas. Even if Kintzler looks awful, and you cut him, he only costs the team less than 200k.

The payroll obligations for 2015 are sitting around $107 million, which includes arbitration raises for Maldonado ($1M), Kintzler ($1M) and Parra ($6M), as well as minimum salaries for two IF and one OF. Unless we shed some salary (or increase payroll), we won't be adding anyone major. My one guess is we'll add a cheap LOOGY type guy or a reclamation project (like Duke was last year). Someone they can get for under a $1 million. Otherwise, I think we'll fill roster spots with rookies or low cost FAs. Gomez or Herrera will get the middle IF slot. Rogers or Jimenez will be the backup 1B/3B. Schafer or some other scrub will get the 5th OF spot (a cheap right handed 1B/OF type might be in the cards as well - a career minor leaguer or low cost vet). Ideally, ownership would increase payroll a bit. I'd love to get a more reliable back up middle infielder - someone who could play SS if Segura flounders, plus get some starts at 2B vs lefties. But someone like that will cost a few million bucks, which I don't think we will spend. Even at $107M, our payroll may need to be cut. Parra would be the likely guy to go. But I hope we can find a way to keep him.

I actually love Parra. I think we ignore defense far too much. That said, I think the upside on Braun and Davis is what you play for. I think you you have to believe that Braun can rebound (25HR, .300 BA), and Davis can mature (25HR, .270-.280 BA). Parra, for all his positives, is not a game changer. I would keep Parra. I simply don't trust Braun to stay healthy, and I'm not totally sold that Davis can become that much of a better player. I just hate to watch the team struggle because we don't have adequate reserves. Parra is an expensive insurance policy, but I think one that's worth having.