Matt Breen

Interesting look at how offense has declined. In 2004, there were 37 players that hit 30 or more HR (including nine players hitting over 40 HR), and 36 players hit .300 or better. In 2014, we have 10 guys with 30 HR (quite a few guys are have 25-27 HR, so a couple might reach 30), no one with 40 HR (Nelson Cruz has 39, so he's a good shot to get it), and 16 guys hitting .300 or better.

I think Wooten could be an option in 2015. Looking at his major league numbers in 2014, he's sitting on a not very impressive 4.72 ERA. But if you look closer, he's improved his strikeout rate and walk rate over last year. Plus he's only given up 1 HR. His FIP is at 2.67. He's got given up a .380 average on balls hit in play. That's really, really high. I'm not saying Wooten is anything great, but if he's your 6/7 man in the pen, you might be okay. I'll also admit that he doesn't have the best tools, and could fall off the face of the earth if he has any sort of issue. He's giving up a lot of hits - both in the majors and minors. So that's a red flag. But I think there's still the potential to help out.

I bet JJ gets more like $11-12 million a year. I bet he's in NY next season. He'd be perfect for them, and they'll spend. Still, JJ at SS would be sweet.

Those splits are not massive. Ryan Braun for example has a .160 split in OPS for his career. Aramis Ramirez .100 Lucroy .135 Andrew McCutchen .139 Jose Abreu .146 Gincarlo Stanton .095 Mike Trout .054 reverse split If I had to guess a .100 split is typical of most hitters. If a guy isn't all that great to begin with then you can platoon him to gain whatever advantage you can from a platoon. On the other hand, 1B seems like a really bad place to have a platoon unless one of the guys is more than just a 1B. Edit: You want massive look at Scooter and his .575 career split. Egad, I meant to type are NOT massive. Thanks for that. I'll fix.

I'd rather have Rogers playing everyday. They can use Lucroy at 1B vs. many lefties. My guess is they'll add another RH bat with some versatility to play OF and 1B occasionally too. It'll probably be a veteran though as his booster on here, I believe Halton would be adequate in that role too. Big Sean put up impressive platoon splits at AAA this year, bashing lefties at a rate of .342/.387/.509. Rogers is right handed. Halton and him are essentially the same players - 1B who dabble at 3B and OF. But Rogers looks like the better hitter.

I think you nailed it. I don't expect a lot out of the Brewers as long as they bring back A-Ram. After that, it's find a 1B and add some depth.

Major league 1B have an average OPS of .757 this year. Milwaukee has a .660 OPS. If the guys could get a .750 OPS out of a platoon it would be great.

Matt Clark notes (AKA, things I thought were interesting about the guy). Note 1: Splits Outside of 2014, he has had more trouble against left handed pitchers than right handers (as a lot of left handed hitters do): 2010 (AA): .772 OPS vs lefties; .852 vs righties 2011 (AAA): .754 OPS vs lefties; .891 vs righties 2012 (AAA): .808 OPS vs lefties; .897 vs righties 2013 - Played in Japan 2014 (AA/AAA/NL): .953 OPS vs lefties; .920 vs righties The splits are not massive, but an occasional platoon partner might be wise. Note 2: Japan Matt spent 2013 in Japan, producing a pedestrian .785 OPS. The power was there (25 HR), but the average was not (.238 BA). Note 3: Family Matt Clark's father. Terry Clark, was a major league pitcher for parts of six seasons. He had finished his career with a 5.54 ERA over 232.1 innings. Interestingly, Terry reached the majors at age 27, but within two years was back in the minors. He spent five seasons in the minors (highlighted by several knee surgeries) before making it back to the big leagues at age 34. Note 4: Rule Five miss Matt was available in the Rule Five draft after the 2011 campaign (when he produced an .861 OPS in AAA), but no one selected him. It should be noted that 100 players hit .298 or better (minimum 143 ABs) in the PCL that season. Caleb Gindl had an .862 OPS and Taylor Green has a .997 OPS. 15 players had an OPS over 1.000 (only 3 of those 15 are major league regulars). Note 5: Minor league rankings Clark was ranked the 29th Padres prospect following the 2009 season. He never appeared in a BA Top 30 list after that season. John Sickels twice (2010 and 2011) listed Clark in the 'other guys considered' (along with 10-20 others) in his Top 20 prospect listings.

I'm hoping something clicks next season for Jean. He obviously has talent. We saw that in the first half of 2013. Maybe he'll come into camp fresh after all the difficulties (to put it mildly) of 2014. That said, I hope the team has someone that can push Segura. Or take over if he keeps producing at a sub. 600 OPS.

I have no problem giving the guy a fair shake next season at the 1B job. But honestly, I won't expect a lot. Older guys like this should pound AAA pitching. It makes me think of Bryan LaHair, who went from 29 year old rookie all-star to minor leaguer (with a stop in Japan) in less than two years. Older guys in AAA don't often become quality major leaguers. Go back to 2010. There were 26 players with a .900+ OPS (minimum of 143 plate appearances). Only five of those players were under 25 (and most have become productive major leaguers - Buster Posey, Logan Morrison, Arencibia, Trumbo and Chris Davis). The rest of the players were 25 and older. Only 3 of the remaining 21 guys have become decent big leaguers (Allen Craig, Chris Johnson and Alex Gordan). But like people have noted, Clark doesn't appear to have ever really given a square shake at the big leagues despite some solid AA and AAA numbers. In fact, it's foolish NOT to consider the guy in some capacity. Teams like Milwaukee need to take a few chances on guys like this. If the club likes his skillset, mechanics, etc., why not try him out. I'd rather take a risk with a guy like Clark or Rogers than another season of Overbay.

Can we not swing at 90% of the pitches? There's no plate discipline tonight. Just awful looking.

Khris David has the worst arm in baseball. Wow.

Thanks, everyone. I appreciate all your work. Great job.

Unless the front office decides to blow things up, I think A-Ram coming back is almost a sure thing. Here's how it plays out: We'll pick up our side of the mutual option (which is $14 million). If A-Ram picks up his end of the mutual option, we are set. If he declines, the team will then give him a qualifying offer, which will likely be around $14.5 million. At that price (plus losing a 1st round pick), I don't think any team would really want him. The draft pick compensation tied to him will keep people away (along with his age and recent injuries), just like Drew and Morales saw last year. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe someone would be willing to give him a two or three year deal. The other option is that A-Ram and the Crew agree to a new contract before free agency even begins. 2-years/$24 million is my guess. I'm betting it happens. I just don't see Mark A. and Melvin blowing up the team. We have no real options in the minors at 3B, so they'll roll the dice on A-Ram.

That's sweet. Cueto has been a beast this year. Probably the best pitcher outside of Kershaw in the league.

Thanks for sharing. That was really interesting.

2015 Bullpen Broxton (closer) Jimmy Nelson (we'll pick up Gallardo's option and give the 5th slot to Fiers, so Nelson gets a year in the bullpen) Jeffress Thornburg Henderson Kintzler Smith Wooten Pena (out of options so he has to be kept) Other options include Blazek, Johnny Hellweg (but probably not until mid-season), David Goforth and Tyler Cravy. I could see adding a loogy, but nothing to break the bank. If any of the starters are injured, you move Nelson into the rotation, probably followed by Jungmann. I don't see major additions because the team is currently sitting at roughly $92 million in obligations next year (see below). That doesn't include Parra or Estrada, but does include a couple of other arby players, Kintzler and Maldonado (I'm guessing each at $1 million). It also includes A-Ram at $14 million - but that could certainly change. We have a payroll of $103 million this year, so if things remain about the same, that leaves us with about $10 million to spend. You still need to fill four back up slots for position players, and 1B. Depending on how you fill 1B, you might have some extra cash to add a veteran or two in the bullpen. But that means you're likely going with some rookies at 1B. I just don't see Melvin doing that, but you never know. 2015 salaries (rounded to nearest half million) Lucory: $3.0 million Maldonado: 1.0 1B: ? 2B: Scooter: .5 SS: Segura: .5 3B: A-Ram: 14.0 LF: Davis: .5 CF: Gomez: 8 RF: Braun: 14.5 (this includes a $2.5 million bonus he's due in April) INF: ? INF: ? OF: ? OF: ? Starting pitchers: Garza: 12.5 Gallardo: 13 Peralta: .5 Fiers: .5 Lohse: 11 Relievers: Broxton: $9 million Henderson: .5 Wooten: .5 Kintzler: 1.0 Thornburg: .5 Smith: .5 Pena: .5 Jeffress: .5 Nelson: .5

He's only notched a .616 OPS against RHP this season, & OPS'd .531 overall in August. It sure doesn't look like a mistake. That's 2014 Segura-caliber, but at least Jean's only making the minimum. For next season, Drew would be an option at SS (career .784 OPS v. RHP), and Segura could even be utilized as the MIF utility RH bat to back up SS & 2B, with as many spot-starts as necessary -- Drew has obviously had durability issues, & will probably not be given a QO heading into the offseason. If he could be had for around $5M or so, that seems like a decent gamble to me. The trick is that he just hasn't been the same player over the past 3 seasons -- a cumulative OPS under .700, after his previous seasons combined were around .775. Will he bounce back, or has he just left his productive years in the rearview mirror? Drew on a one year deal for a reasonable rate (say $5 million as suggested above and some playing time incentives) would be an interesting option. The guy is a good defender, and I'm going to assume 2014 is a fluke. But the long list of injuries is worrisome. Problem is that other teams, like the Yankees, will likely want the same thing from Drew. Odds are that someone will overpay him. I just don't want it to be us. But if he could be had for a decent salary, I think he would really fit a need.

The problem is that there's little incentive for Estrada to come back knowing his role is that of long man in the bullpen. Perhaps no one will want him and he'll take the gig, but you'd think a team with a hole at the back of the rotation would be willing to give him a try. That's probably a much more attractive option to Marco. Next year might be the last time he gets a chance to be a starter in the majors, and if he gets in a good situation, and puts up okay numbers, he might set himself up for an decent payday in 2016. But that isn't as likely to happen if he's in our bullpen.

Estrada makes $3.325 million this year. Guys usually don't get pay cuts in arbitration, so you figure $3.5 million. I don't think there's any way he stays with the club. You have other more viable options (Fiers, Nelson, Thornburg) than a guy coming off a bad year and in the last year of arbitration. Marco will be non-tendered and look for work in a big stadium (SD would be perfect) where his HR tendencies won't hurt as much. Kintzler is arby eligible for the first time. I don't think he'll get a ton - maybe $1-1.5 million. Example: James Russell (then with the Cubs) got $1.075 million in 2013 after his third season when he had a 3.25 ERA in 69 innings. If it's $1 to 1.5 million, he should be retained. Those are my guesses.

14 HR in 62 innings. That's a worse home rate than Estrada. His HR rate has risen each of the last four years. That's not a good trend. When Frankie's 'on', he's devastating. He just hasn't been 'on' of late, and seems to be serving up some taters with regularity.

Just throwing this out for fun. Is Segura our SS next year? If not, who? Orlando Arcia likely won't be ready for a couple of years, and the only minor league option is 26 year old Hector Gomez, who had a nice season at AAA producing an .808 OPS (in his minor league career he has a .698 OPS). Here are shortstops listed by MLBtraderumors.com as being free agents this off season: Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout Clint Barmes (36) Asdrubal Cabrera (29) Stephen Drew (32) Rafael Furcal (37) J.J. Hardy (32) Jed Lowrie (31) John McDonald (40) Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250K buyout Hanley Ramirez (31) Aviles, Barmes, McDonald, Furcal and Punto are probably just backups at this stage of their careers. Ramirez will likely get a ton of cash - and stinks at SS. Lowrie and Cabrera are both switch hitters. Lowrie probably is a bit better defender, but he's had injury issues in the past. Neither is an all star, but represent solid, safe options. Drew is coming off an terrible year after waiting until June to sign. He also struggles against lefties, so a platoonish situation is probably best. He's a plus fielder, and might be had at a reasonable rate considering his poor 2014 and injury history. Hardy is the best of the bunch - he's still an excellent defender, and while his power is down in 2014, he's hitting a solid .281. Any other ideas? Trade candidates? Minor leaguers stuck on other teams?

I wanted the division badly, but now I'll be happy to get in on the wild card. I hate the one-game playoff, but if that's how we have to do it, then so be it. Still, this team has to get their poop together fast.

What about Ron Washington? I'm waiting for Kirk Gibson to become available.

Shea Vucinich. That guy's awesome. I wish we had an interview with him.