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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    For all of Monte's talent, baseball is his big ticket. Last season, he was the 49th ranked high school WR in the country by ESPN. 33rd by Rivals.com. Another site had him at 60th best WR, and the 375th best HS player. That pales next to being ranked 20 or 30 in all of baseball. And let's not forget the injury factor related to playing football. Plus, there's the $1.8 million guarantee he gets now. A mid-3rd round pick in this year's NFL draft makes about $3 million over four years - with about $600,000 guaranteed. Again, that assumes he gets drafted that high, and plays all four years of his contract. Four years of major league baseball will net you a minimum of about $2.5 million (and can be lots more). And beyond four years baseball players make significantly more than football players. The very best football players make about $20 million/year. Baseball has $30 million guys. Finally, baseball players play longer than football players. WRs in the NFL are often washed up by 30, when in baseball, you're playing some of your best ball.
  2. Matt Breen
    But you don't understand... he's "proven" :-) As sad as it sounds, that's the truth. Melvin has almost always gone into the season with a 'proven' closer. Henderson, Axford, Hoffman, Gagne, Cordero, Turnbow. Several of these guys became closers when the 'proven' guy failed, but he loves his veteran in the bullpen. Even when our team has sucked, he's paid for 'proven' closers. I bet the team makes a run at K-Rod, but I doubt they cough up too much for him. His HR rate is bad and he's likely going to get a big offer. But if they can get him for a couple of years at $8 million or so a year, they might bring him back. But I don't think that will do it. Some team will over pay him for all of his saves.
  3. Matt Breen
    I love stories like this. I've said it before, no matter what happens to this guy, he can always say he played in the big leagues. Not a lot of people can do that. It was nice seeing Clark and Rogers make their debuts the other day (both even have hits now). Before the season, I don't think either was a lock to make it to the majors.
  4. Matt Breen
    I don't think Mark A does anything crazy no matter if we make the playoffs or not. We held 1st place for over four months, and I don't think he's going to dismiss that, even with an epic collapse like we are in right now. That means Melvin and RRR will be back. The starting rotation comes back intact, and outside of Estrada, they've been pretty solid. Nothing awesome, but solid. You can win with solid. The bullpen is mostly set with Broxton the closer next year. Nelson is likely a part of this pen if there are no injuries. Perhaps you add a player or two for depth, but nothing big. Offensively, the team will try and bring back A-Ram, leaving a hole at 1B and potentially SS. That's the key. Everything else is set if you bring back A-Ram. I don't think Mark A will see this as insurmountable. I could see adding a couple of guys like Drew at SS and Cuddyer at 1B for modest salaries. Or perhaps one bigger salary (such as Adam LaRoche) along with a glove first SS for cheap to push Segura. Those are just a couple of ideas, but I think the team will see the roster as not being that far from contending - and move accordingly. I think Mark A stays the course, makes some smaller moves, and aims for better depth and a more consistent team in 2015.
  5. Matt Breen
    He didn't get along with the front office. I've read he was questioning a lot of the front office strategies - lots of shifts, how pitchers in the minors were being handled, etc. Some people felt he was going to get canned last off season because of the same issues. It's hard supporting ideas you don't believe in - but he knew what Ludlow and the front office had in mind. If he didn't like it, he could have passed on the gig (although I realize that is tough to do).
  6. Matt Breen
    Melvin loves having his closer situation settled. He has gone with a 'proven' guy for as long as I can remember. When the proven guy fails, then someone else gets the chance (Axford, Henderson). Unless the team resigns K-Rod for a reasonable rate, I doubt Broxton is dealt. He's Melvin's security blanket. No way he goes into 2015 relying on Henderson or one of our other guys as the closer. Broxton (closer) Smith Jeffress Henderson Thornburg Jimmy Nelson (at this point, I'm betting our rotation is Peralta, Gallard, Garza, Lohse and Fiers. Nelson gets moved up if there is an injury in spring training, but otherwise, his power arm will serve the bullpen well.) Ariel Pena (he's out of options, so he either makes the club or is likely gone. I think his power arm plays well from the bullpen, and the limited pitches will help him with his control - which as been a big issue.) Kintzler Wooten I'm comfortable finding seven guys out of that to handle the bullpen. In the minors you have some interesting arms that might be ready in 2015, including Blazek, Hellweg, Jungmann, Goforth and Cravy. Jungmann would likely be the next starter called up (we'll need him by 2016, when Yo and Lohse are free agents). You could add in a veteran arm or two as minor league contracts if you want depth. Maybe a loogy as well. But you don't need to overspend.
  7. Matt Breen
    When the season ends for all the minor league players, I'll update the stats that were initially posted to reflect final numbers.
  8. Matt Breen
    I think Dusty Baker is available...
  9. Matt Breen
    Exactly. Gindl looked like he belonged in the majors last year. He wasn't great or anything, but he had a respectable .779 OPS. Maybe he just got tired or frustrated and let it get to him. But I thought he had a future in the majors. Not so sure anymore.
  10. Matt Breen
    Nice for guys like Rogers and Clark. Some players get so close to the majors - but never quite get to the bigs. Even if they never make it back, it's pretty sweet to say you played in the Show. Heck, Moonlight Graham got to play in the field. No one could ever take that away from him.
  11. Matt Breen
    I was never sold on Burgos, but I liked Gindl. I can't believe how badly he played this year. I thought he could be a solid 4th OF type - play the corners (even CF in a crisis), pinch hit, etc. Hopefully for both guys a change of scenery can help them out.
  12. Matt Breen
    Colby, how about Eric Davis as a Harrison comp? Harrison looks bigger (not necessarily taller) than Davis, but both are/were superior athletes with plus speed and a big arm. Not saying Harrison is going to be Eric Davis, who was a pretty amazing player, especially before injuries. But Davis just oozed with talent - and Monte seems to have that same aura to him.
  13. Matt Breen
    Johnny Venters looking at his 3rd TJ surgery. Gotta feel for the guy. He was pretty amazing his first and second seasons. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11426745/jonny-venters-atlanta-braves-faces-possible-third-tommy-john-surgery-elbow-tear
  14. Matt Breen
    I think Harrison could easily be our top prospect within a year. His athleticism is tremendous - and he's never been able to just focus on one sport. So many guys like him come out of HS and are pure hackers. But Monte already appears to have a good eye at the plate (even if he still has a high K rate). A .400 OBP at any level is pretty impressive. Power will come, and when it does, he's a five tool player - something we lack in our organization.
  15. Matt Breen
    Older guys hitting in the PCL is not unusual. And those guys rarely suddenly become quality big leaguers. Let's go back a few years - 2010. There were 26 players with a .900+ OPS (minimum of 143 plate appearances). Only five of those players were under 25 (and most have become productive major leaguers - Buster Posey, Logan Morrison, Arencibia, Trumbo and Chris Davis). The rest of the players were 25 and older. Only 3 of the remaining 21 guys have become decent big leaguers (Allen Craig, Chris Johnson and Alex Gordan). It doesn't mean Clark won't succeed, but it just shows you how hard the transition to the big leagues can be. Perhaps some of the difficulty is the bias against older guys. The clubs say, "The guys 27, he should be tearing up AAA." Again, it doesn't mean that given the chance he wouldn't succeed, but the track record on guys like Clark is not good.
  16. Matt Breen
    http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/air-quotes.gif Every time "experts" gets their own eye rolling quotations I want to do this.
  17. Matt Breen
    Molina could be back as early as Friday. Should really help the Cards.
  18. Matt Breen
    Orioles are 7 games up with 75 wins. A +60 run differential. Gotta give them some kudos. They've done it a lot like the Brewers - solid, but not great pitching. A good lineup that sports some plus power. No superstars, but better depth than Crew. It's not a sexy team, but they are winning. Can't argue with that.
  19. Matt Breen
    The Cubs young hitters will be exciting next year, but they have no pitching. Even if they add a top flight guy like Lester, they are pretty bare of any good arms, both at the big league and minor league levels. I expect the team to add at least one good pitcher - maybe even two - to go with Arrieta. But that won't be enough to contend. Plus, some of the young bats will need to time to adjust. Bryant, Baez, Solar, Russell, Almora, Schwarber - the process has just begun and will continue into 2015. By 2016, they will be primed to play along with Rizzo and Castro. After 2016, the club can add another big arm, maybe develop a reliever or two (and sign one or two). Then you're talking something to get excited about.
  20. Matt Breen
    We have to remember that any guys getting through waivers are going to have warts. That means performance issues and/or contract issues. Anyone decent will get claimed, like Qualls did by Detroit. If no one claimed a guy, I think that speaks for itself.
  21. Matt Breen
    Assuming Garza and Lohse come back healthy, I think Nelson simply gets shifted to the bullpen. With the way Fiers has been pitching, it's crazy to move him out of the rotation. And Nelson might help a lot in the pen. We need another good arm down the stretch. He might be it.
  22. Matt Breen
    The Brewers could make a move on Papelbon if they a) want a 'proven closer' for 2015-16; and b) don't think they can resign K-Rod after the season for an acceptable rate and length; and c) can get Philly to kick in $6 million or more in cash; and d) don't have to trade anything much of value. 1) You get Papelbon for the stretch run this year. 2) You get a 'proven closer' in Papelbon for 2015-16 at about $10 million a year (he's due $13 million a year, assuming his 2016 option vests, which it likely would, barring injury.) 3) The team doesn't have to overpay in years and salary for a closer on the FA market. I doubt Papelbon would have an issue coming in for one month and being a set up guy to K-Rod - as long as he knows that he'll be the closer going next year. I honestly don't like overpaying for relievers, but Melvin seems to love those kind of guys. $8 million to Trevor Hoffman. $10 million to Gagne. He was willing to pay Cordero $11 million a year to be our closer. As for Papelbon's personality, I guess the team would have to make the call as to whether they want to deal with someone who's somewhat outspoken. Milwaukee seems to value 'team'-type guys. Maybe Doug thinks we can handle the closer position internally (Smith, Jeffress, Thornburg), but that doesn't seem to be his MO.
  23. Matt Breen
    Tyler has pitched pretty well so far, even if the numbers are small. 27 IP, 5 BB, 24K, 1.00 WHIP, 2.00 ERA
  24. Matt Breen
    Parra is arby eligible next year for the final time. He's probably in line to make upwards of $6 million. I don't think the Brewers pay that for a back up, but you never know. With the injuries that Braun and Gomez have had over the last couple of years, the depth is great to have.
  25. Matt Breen
    Does the team go after K-Rod or Duke in the offseason? What will each cost? I'm betting K-Rod gets $8-9 million for two or three years. I'm thinking Duke can get $3-4 million on 2-3 years as well. Am I undestimating/overestimating these guys? I think Melvin will try and keep K-Rod. He seems to like to have a 'proven' closer.
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