Matt Breen
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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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Nice article at Fangraphs about Smith and his potential: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brewers-land-will-smith-and-his-possible-breakthrough/ -
Mariners sign Robinson Cano: 10 yrs./$240mm
Matt Breen replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Seattle still isn't very good. They need so much more. -
Cotts lists Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, Lohse, A-Ram, Carlos G., Gorzelanny and Lucroy taking up $73,550,000. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html Figure about $2.5 million for Estrada - that's roughly $76 million. That's only 9 players, so you need to pay $500,000 to 16 other players - that's $8 million (some guys might make a little more). That puts us around $84 million. And that's without injuries. If we lose someone, we'll need to call up someone from the minors. That's will add some salary on during the year. Maybe not a ton - but perhaps a million or two dollars. Also, we owe A-Ram a $4 million buyout if we don't pick up his 2015 option. We owe Weeks a $1 million buyout if we don't pick up his 2015 option. I don't know if those are considered part of 2014 or 2015 salaries. Also, if it matters, $6 million of A-Ram's salary is deferred (until when, it doesn't say).
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It's absolutely a gamble to go for a younger player. No one is a guarantee. The less experience, the younger the player, the more risk involved. I even said there's a good chance an A ball guy - even one with lots of upside - doesn't make it. But with risk comes reward. I know it's a big risk, since so many young guys flame out. But I like the idea of adding someone who might (even if it is an outside chance) become special. Smith fills a need. And he still has some upside. But I don't see him catapulting us into contention. I hope he does - but I don't think he'll have that kind of impact.
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There's a difference between 'high' and 'higher'. I don't think anyone expected a high upside prospect for Aoki. But I don't think it's out of the line to think we could have gotten a player with higher potential than Smith if we had been willing to take a guy in the low minors compared to a current major leaguer. Smith had a nice 2013, but remove that and he was pretty average in the minors (and bad in 2012 in the majors). Scouting reports had him as a back of the rotation guy or reliever as his upside. He has decent tools, but nothing exceptional. Some people seem to be saying he's got #3 potential after his 2013 campaign. Personally, I think that's a big leap. I think it would be hard for people to slot him above Thornburg and Nelson. All that said, I think Aoki could have fetched a guy with higher potential than Smith. Snagging a prospect is A ball is much more of a crapshoot than a guy in the majors (or AAA). But that's the risk you take. The guy could flame out (odds are he would). But at this point in the franchise, I'd rather potentially have a good player in 3-4 years than an average one right now. If Smith reaches his potential - that of a back end of the rotation starter - he's still a good player to have. And the trade is fine. But I'd rather have nabbed a guy in A ball with more upside than a back of the rotation starter. How good of a prospect could we have gotten is entirely debatable. But I think someone with more upside than Smith.
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most every team will likely offer the $20 million fee. it will all come down to the contract he's offered. I'm betting upwards of $100-120 million for six years. Someone will pay that looking for the next Darvish. But it won't be the Brewers - and even if it was - there are a bunch of other places that he'd pick over Milwaukee.
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Gindl has played mostly RF in the minors (530 games in RF, 175 in CF, and 47 in LF). He didn't look all that comfortable last season in LF - probably because he hasn't played it that much. I wouldn't be surprised if Gindl is the top backup in LF and RF next year, with Schafer getting a handful of starts in CF when Carlos needs a break.
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I would have preferred a higher upside prospect for Aoki. But we seem to be locked into a player who can help now. That mindset limits the player we got for Aoki. As Aoki's value - as people have pointed out, he is 32, a free agent after the season, has limited power, and needs to play corner OF (unless you want a bad CF). It limits the teams interested. With his limited power, some clubs probably see him more as a 4th OF. If he could play a good CF, it might be different, but his destinations were limited. While it's underwhelming what we got for Aoki, I don't think it's that unexpected. Even if he is only a decent reliever - 4-5 years of him is probably worth one year of Nori. I guess the big thing is that the club thinks he can start. And being a lefty, they see that as a need. Can he actually be a decent starter? We'll see. If he can, it's a deal for us. But even if he's just a decent reliever, it's probably an okay deal in the long run. Just not real sexy.
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No, Aoki would have hit arbitration in 2015. He was under team control until 2018. At least according to: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aokino01.shtml#contracts The club clarified during last season that Aoki could not be tendered arbitration. He is scheduled to be a free agent after 2014. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/aoki-can-become-free-agent-after-2014.html
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I think Morrison would be a really good gamble for the Brewers. He was a top 20 prospect coming up. He hit okay the first couple of years as a 22-23 year old. But the Marlins moved him to OF, where he has played poorly. Some people felt he let his defensive woes hurt his batting. And playing in the OF may have contributed to some of his injuries (knee, back, among others). He's also butted heads with Marlins management at times (once after the hitting coach was fired and he slammed the team for it). It wasn't exactly the best situation for him. That said, he's only 26, so that promise he showed coming up is hard to ignore. A change of scenery might do him wonders. Also, he's a left handed bat. I think that's one of the key reasons the team isn't so hot to get Hart back (aside from the cost). They need a left handed stick in the lineup that isn't striking out 1/3 of the time or playing awful defense. If we could get him for a part timer - like Schafer (who I happen to really like), I'd take the gamble. The guy will take his walks, and could potentially be a 20-25 HR guy. The BA will (hopefully) be better with consistent playing time, better health and a more welcoming hitting environment.
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Scooter's inability to hit lefties very well is going to be a drag on him. The guy just flails at left handed pitches. Brutal to watch.
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I don't think we are in the position to win any time soon, so I say you take the best prospect - even if he's in A ball. Would I like a great prospect in AAA? Sure. But it's not likely to happen for Aoki. The team should just shop him for the very best prospect they can get - no matter what level of ball or position.
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Weird trade. Not like there's any big upside talent Tigers are getting. You'd think with the premium price starting pitching is getting on the FA market, they could have gotten more.
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$6 million. Try $9 million and someone might bite. No one in their right mind takes on $4 million for a guy coming off a bad injury and two bad years offensively. Plus he's bad defensively.
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Didn't see this one coming, but it makes sense for Detroit Unload salary Move Cabrera to 1b - improving defense at two positions Make a spot for Castellanos (forgive my spelling) Fills 2B spot with a good player For Texas they: Get a serious bat that should do great in that ballpark Open a spot for Profar
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If Rickie was a free agent this off season, what kind of contract would he get? The guy is coming off two bad years and a major injury. I think he'd have a tough time getting any sort of guaranteed contract. I bet it would be a minor league deal with incentives. I don't think anyone would take Rickie off our hands unless we paid all but a $1 million. Swapping him for another bad contract might work as well. I just don't see Rickie having any value at this stage.
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I love Aoki but we should trade him if you can get a decent prospect or two. Move Braun to RF, give Davis a chance to play. He's a good player, but not a game changer. I say you roll the dice on Davis - see if he can become a 25-30 HR guy.
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http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp Congrats to Carlos. Well deserved.
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The truth hurts. I'm not going to argue about their list. They set up a methodology and it's how we came out. That simple. It's about showing what teams have impact talent coming down the pipe in the next two years. And even if it's wrong in some fashion, that means we're what - ranked 25th. 25th or 30th, we don't have premium talent at AA or AAA.
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I'm surprised by this too. But I'm only going by stats. Perhaps the team just doesn't see him making the transition from AAA to the big leagues. That said, he's only been pitching for four years (he was a catcher prior to being moved to the mound), and really seemed to blossom when moved to relieving two years ago. He had the 16th best ERA in the PCL last year (47 minimum innings pitched). And his splits are dramatic. A .692 OPS .vs lefties and a .648 OPS vs. righties. His 2012 splits are even better - lefties had a .554 OPS while righties had a .571 OPS. I guess I'd rather take a risk on a guy like Sanchez rather than invest $2 million in Badenhop. But again, maybe the Brewers know something about Sanchez that we don't.
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The contract for Fielder has all the hallmarks of being a pretty bad investment for Detroit. The simple fact is that guys like Prince don't age well (you can argue no one ages well, but I think big-bodied guys even more so). They lose a little speed in their bat (and legs). It quickly turns them from great to average hitters - then albatrosses. I have no clue if Fielder will rebound after putting up an .819 OPS last year. He's only 29, so last season might have been a fluke. I wouldn't be shocked if he hit .300 with 35 HR. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he hit 20-25 HR with an .800 OPS. The good thing for Detroit is that they can move Fielder to DH in 2015 (after Victor Martinez's contract runs out). By then they'll want to get Cabrera off of 3B (likely making room for Castellanos) and over to 1B. Fielder is a bad defender and is only going to get worse as he ages (same with Cabrera). Even if Prince keeps trending downward, he'll likely still be a decent hitter for a few years. A guy hitting 20-25 HR and OPSing .800 isn't great, but he's still good (the average American League DH had a .725 OPS last season). The problem is you tie $24 million into the DH slot, getting good, but not great production. Detroit took the gamble that Fielder had some great years in him. He was only 28 when they got him, so I can understand the attitude. They are built to win now. So they thought they'd get 3-4 years of great Fielder, then 4-5 of mediocre (or bad) Prince. Unfortunately, the 'great' Fielder might be in the past.
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I think you are correct about this. Gray is only 5'11" - and some scouts just weren't enamored with him because of his size. And I think he only was a two-pitch guy at the time, so I believe a lot people thought he'd end up in the bullpen. People loved his make up and competitiveness. Was this an organizational bias? Don't know. I remember there was a this big batch of college arms available to the Crew - Bradley, Jungmann, Gray, Chris Reed, Matt Barnes, Alex Meyer - I might have missed a couple as well. Rather sad to think our guys are turning out to be the worst of the bunch.
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Because all 5 pitchers we use will be healthy all year and we will not have to fill in with bad pitchers again next year. So true. The Brewers lack of depth really killed us this year. It's something we need if we are to play well next year. last year, we turned to guys who have failed as starters (some repeatedly). That they failed again isn't a shocker. Gorzelanny and Figaro had 15 starts. Hand had 7 (to his credit, he wasn't awful, but he wasn't good either - and his success in the minors has been as a reliever). I can forgive giving Burgos, Fiers and Hellwig a try - at least they were successful minor league starters (or in the case of Fiers, successful last year). But they got 15 starts. That's probably too many, but considering we weren't good, there wasn't lots of choices. All in all we got 38 starts from guys with over a 5.00 ERA. If you can get an 'average' player to replace 30 of those starts, you're doing pretty well. Quality depth is so important - especially for starting pitching. The Cardinals lost Chris Carpenter for the year. Jaime Garcia for 2/3 of the season. They filled their spots with Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha - two rookies with high upside. They didn't sign Jeff Suppan or trade for Kevin Correia.
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First, if Arroyo gets a qualifying offer from the Reds, there's no way we should consider him. Second, while I don't really want Arroyo, I could see Mark A. and Melvin think he'd be a good guy to have. A two year deal wouldn't be out of the question. The Brewers would then have a (probable) rotation of Lohse, Gallardo, Arroyo, Estrada and Peralta. It would be a staff that would, potentially, be very average (National League starters had an ERA of 3.87 last year). There's probably not a lot of upside on this rotation, but you could balance the lack of top pitchers by not having anyone really awful (assuming our players can perform at a decent level). Add in a good bullpen and an above average hitting team - and the Milwaukee braintrust will believe that the playoffs are within reach. Considering our starters had a 4.20 ERA last year, having an 'average' starting staff would be great. Regarding Arroyo, his age worries me, plus his home run tendencies. And he'd be going from a good defensive team to the Brewers (meaning mediocre at best). I would expect him to not do as well in Milwaukee. Which makes me think we can get someone who can approach his performance at 1/20th of the price. But if there's no qualifying offer made to Arroyo, I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin went after him.
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Good timing: The Party Police: Atlanta Braves division http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/10/7/4798780/atlanta-braves-party-police Another - more serious - article on the subject of the Braves being the 'party police' from USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/10/02/dodgers-braves-a-clash-of-opposites-in-nl-division-series/2913015/
