Matt Breen

At this point, the only guy worth adding as a starting pitcher is Joe Saunders. I don't love the guy (don't really even like him much). But he takes the ball and can get you 30-33 starts, 180-200 innings. 4.00-4.50 ERA. He's a pretty consistent pitcher (consistently mediocre). He's left handed, which wouldn't be bad to have in the rotation. Saunders is reportedly looking for a 3 year deal. No way I do that. I'd consider a 2 year deal at around $6-7 million. One year and an option would be even better. But Joe Blanton got 2 years and $15 million, so Saunders should be able to match that. Saunders is nothing more than a back of the rotation guy who can eat up innings. He's nothing special, but he would be helpful. But it has to be at the right price. The only starter who is better is Lohse, and I don't want to pay the dollars, years and draft pick it would take to sign him. The rest of the starters have age issues, injury issues or plain aren't any good. As for relievers, there are a bunch of guys who could help the team. Melvin just needs to keep hanging around the reliever bin at the store and wait for the right guy to lower his price. Don't want to overpay for these guys, but as I said, many guys could help.

I moved to Colorado last summer and signed up for MLB.TV for the last month of the season. I streamed it through my Apple TV - which worked great. I'm planning on doing it again this year.

Lohse is 34, so it's unlikely he's going to get better. He's been uneven in his playing career (but quite good the last couple of years). Even last year, you dig into his numbers and it hints he wasn't as good as he seemed. His ERA was 2.86, but his FIP was 3.51 and his xFIP was 3.96. He had a LOB% of 77.2, his best ever. His BABIP was .262 - while his career is .297. None of these are bad things, but it makes him an ideal candidate to regress next year. Oh yes, and he costs a draft pick. More and more we are going to have to rely on young, inexpensive talent. Also, our team is not a sure fire thing in 2013. We have a lot of questions. It's not as if we are one guy away from being automatic contenders. It all just doesn't add up. Finally, he was a Cardinal. I hate the Cardinals. He could catch ex-Cardinal curse and be the next Suppan/Looper (okay, maybe not that bad). I'd rather save the money, and if we are looking like we could make the playoffs during the season, spend the cash to bolster the roster as needed.

Signing free agents is fun. But have the Crew's free agent signings worked out? I went back to 2005 (no reason, just picked it as the year to go back to) and listed all the major free agent signings of the since then. I then listed their salary, followed by accumulated WAR - both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. I may have missed some guys. I didn't list guys we picked up as minimum salary types. And salaries are probably not perfect. But they should be close. WAR might not be the best way to judge a player, but it is nice way to actually put value on a guy. I only listed players who have completed their contracts (so no A-Ram or Aoki - but we'll discuss them later). Here you go: Player - Salary - (bWAR) / (fWAR) Doug Davis - $5 million (-1.5 WAR) / (0.0 WAR) Bradon Looper - $5 million (-2.5 WAR) / (-0.8 WAR) Damian Miller - $8.75 million (1.1 WAR) / (3.7 WAR) Jeff Suppan - $44 million (-5.5 WAR) / (1.7 WAR) Mike Cameron - $15 million (5.7 WAR) / (8.5 WAR) Eric Gagne - $10 million (-0.5 WAR) / (-1.1 WAR) Dave Riske - $12 million (-0.6 WAR) / (-0.6 WAR) Jason Kendall - $9 million (2.6 WAR) / (3.7 WAR) Trevor Hoffman - $13.5 million (1.2 WAR) / (1.0 WAR) Randy Wolf - $30 million (-1.3 WAR) / (3.0 WAR) LaTroy Hawkins - $7.5 million (-0.1 WAR) / (0.9 WAR) Takashi Saito - $1.75 million (0.8 WAR) / (0.2 WAR) Alex Gonzalez - $4.25 million (0.2 WAR) / (0.3 WAR) TOTALS: bWAR (-0.4 WAR) fWAR (20.5 WAR) $165.75 million As you can see, bWAR has the Brewers investing $165 million and getting negative value. Fangraphs isn't as harsh, but it's still not pretty. Fangraphs, if I understand it correctly, puts ballpark factors into their WAR values, so some of our pitchers don't look so bad to them. No matter which you use, the Brewers use of free agency has been, in all honesty, pretty bad. Mike Cameron really saves things from being a total disaster. Some of the more modest signings have shown to be solid. The thing that you notice in all the signings is that most of the players are older. But that's to be expected in free agency. In general, people say that free agency doesn't pay off in the long run. You end up with older players, most of them with fading skills and growing injury problems. That criticism is pretty much spot on with Milwaukee's signings. The take away? Free agency is often ripoff. Not exactly earth shattering news, but using this review of it, it's been pretty bad for Milwaukee. For more specifics we could say that teams should avoid big dollar signings, especially for marginal players - and especially pitchers (again, not news to anyone). Aging players don't fare well either. The best signings are often the modest ones. Know that most signings will produce marginal return - which is why you invest modestly in the process. Also, it can be argued that the Brewers have been foolish in their choice of free agent signings. We've let ourselves be duped into thinking a Wolf or Suppan can be greater contributors than should be expected. Looking at other teams may reveal different trends. I realize that looking at a player's value over the life of the contract is a bit unfair. One bad year - like Wolf's last season - can mar two okay ones. But it is a way to assess the value of the signing. Not perfect, but a way to do it. Perhaps someone can look at these numbers and glean more information. I will say that it makes me feel better about how we've approached free agency this year. We've selectively added players, and avoided overpaying in dollars and years. It should probably be the approach we take every year. Final note - Nori Aoki and Aramis Ramirez were very good last year. Both were free agent signings. Although Aoki's was odd in that he came from Japan. But if you add the two into the totals, you'll find an improvement of around 9.0 WAR. Not bad. Here are their numbers: Nori Aoki - Some escalators in this contract, but probably worth no more than $6 million over 3 years - (3.3 WAR so far) / (2.9 WAR so far) Aramis Ramirez - $36 million (5.4 WAR so far) / (6.5 WAR so far)

Patrick, you hit something very important - that's routine. Children (as well as most adults) thrive on routine. Create a good routine for your child (this isn't something just for an infant, but for any child). Nap time, dinner time, bed time, reading time, etc., etc. It doesn't mean you can't, on occasion, break those routines, but it will make a much happier life for everyone.

I suspect something like this as well. The Brewers never showed any interest in Marcum after the season. Considering the need, it's kind of telling.

Jurrjens was so bad last year I don't think anyone will give him a major league deal. 6.89 ERA. 18 BB and only 19K in 48 innings. 1.86 WHIP. He's had some injuries - I believe his knees as well as a groin issue. Knee injuries can be tricky. I just don't think anyone is going to give him anything guaranteed without proof he's healthy and got his stuff together. He was simply too bad last year to give him a pass. Homer, you nailed it. Someone gave him a major league deal.

Jurrjens was so bad last year I don't think anyone will give him a major league deal. 6.89 ERA. 18 BB and only 19K in 48 innings. 1.86 WHIP. He's had some injuries - I believe his knees as well as a groin issue. Knee injuries can be tricky. I just don't think anyone is going to give him anything guaranteed without proof he's healthy and got his stuff together. He was simply too bad last year to give him a pass.

I knew the Braves would have to give up someone good from their major league roster since their farm system is pretty bare. Prado surprises me, but I can understand the move. He's a FA after this year. This gives the Braves a nice offense, but they are stuck with Chris Johnson and/or Juan Francisco at 3B. Perhaps a platoon will suffice for them. I think it's a good situation for Upton. I wasn't thrilled with the take by the Dbacks, because Prado is a FA after this season. But if they can get him to ink an extension, I think it's fine. No big upside players, but Prado will solidify 3B for a few years (assuming he signs an extension). He's an underrated player. I like that they got Delgado. I think he can be a decent starter. Not a superstar, but solid. It's an interesting decision by Arizona to take this package. Texas was reportedly offering Olt, who would have been the kind of player who could have been really good (or a bust). Arizona went with the established player. I guess I can't blame them, since they feel they can compete this year. And Prado is a very good player. Not as sexy as a 30 HR hitter - but very good.

I don't think there's anything left to teach him. You've done well.

I think this is a fair assessment. I'm not sure anyone will offer him a major league deal. Not after his terrible 2012. A deal like this is exactly what the Brewers should offer Jurrjens. Make it a minor league deal with an opt out date - like John Briggs suggest, say June 1. That gives the Crew a couple of months to assess Jurrjens in the minors - as well as their young pitching at the major and minor league levels. Of course, there's a chance Jurrjens could pitch lights out in spring training and make the team. Or injuries could strike early, in which case he's up before June 1. But this gives everyone a fair shake. He doesn't want to pitch decent, but then have no spot available. And we don't want to guarantee him a spot out of spring training. It gives us some veteran depth beyond the old Suppan-like guys just trying to hang around or injured guys trying for a comeback. And with all of our young pitching, he would probably feel pretty good about getting a crack at our rotation - assuming he can pitch better than last year.

Corey's seeing this guy today. http://www.designlessbetter.com/blogless/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/dr-nick.gif

Awesome.

Here's some random things: 1. As others say, start saving. It's simple and it will pay off huge in the long run. 2. Enjoy as much as you can. It will fly by fast. 3. Do as much as you can for your wife. She will be overwhelmed. So will you, but in a different way. Clean the toilets, do the laundry, do the shopping, make meals. Don't think things are beneath you. It all will help. It won't seem like enough, but years later, you'll know every little thing helps. If you have the money, I very much recommend hiring a cleaning person to come in every couple of weeks. 4. Get an electric or batter powered swing. It was gold for helping my kid sleep. Don't get the wind up ones. They only go so long. 5. Don't buy 'age appropriate' clothing - meaning if your child is 3 months old, don't get the 3-6 months old stuff. They'll grow out of it quickly. Just get them the bigger stuff. I recommend getting as many hand me downs as possible from friends and family. Or buying things at yard sales is great. Baby cloths don't get worn down since the kid can't move around much. Used stuff is usually fine. 6. The traveling crib was awesome. Brought that everywhere. It's like a big version of a folding chair you bring to tailgate in. It folds up and fits into a plastic bag. 7. Take pictures and videos as much as you can. Or even better, when you are at family gatherings, ask someone to do it for you. IA lot of times I could give my camera to a neice or nephew and ask them to take some photos for a while. It allowed me to have fun with my family and see the photos later. 8. Read, read and read to the kid. Goodnight Moon. The Hungry Caterpiller. Read to them everyday, let them see the drawings. It gets annoying reading Brown Bear, Brown Bear a thousand times, but you'll see the benefit many years later. 9. Remember every kid is different. Some sleep a lot. Some don't. Some get sick a lot. Others don't. Some walk at 10 months. Others at 16 months. Don't freak out about these differences. It happens. 10. Schedule date nights with the wife. Don't be afraid to leave the kid with a sitter. You need to have some alone time. Even if it's just a movie and meal. 11. Don't buy them stuffed toys. Friends and relatives will give these to you by the boatloads. 12. Very much recommend puzzles and blocks. 13. Teach them to hate the Bears, Vikings, Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals. Feel free to add in any other teams you feel necessary, but those four are the worst.

Thanks everyone for the advice. It's greatly appreciated.

It just shows we're all eager for baseball to begin.

Crosby was looking like a potential all star before injuries derailed his career. He was a 20 HR, good fielding SS. His second year he only played about 2/3 of the season and still had a WAR of over 3.0. I think he hurt his back at that point, and was never the same - offensively or defensively.

Maybe we can sign Angel Berroa as well.

Valverde was waiting for Soriano to sign, so someone will probably target him for a closer role. He's the best of this bunch, and at 35, not that old. He should find a job at a decent salary. I'd love to have him, but he'll get more money than we will pay - plus we can't offer a closer's role. Wilson is a minor league contract waiting to happen. I've read that he is no where close to throwing like a major leaguer. I'm sure lots of teams would like him for cheap, but no one has offered him a major league contract at this point. K-Rod, Caps and Rauch are no more than average relievers. Each has closing experience, and each would probably like the chance to close. But you don't want to overpay for any of them just because they have 'closer experience'. None has been particularly good the last couple of years. Average at best. Rauch is probably the most consistent of the bunch. K-Rod probably offers the best chance to rebound and have a really good season, but I think he needs a change of scenery. Legal issues and his inconsistent play didn't endear him to anyone around here. Capps has had health issues, plus he's been a wildly inconsistent player. Rauch doesn't thrill me, but if you got him for cheap - say $1 million - he's helpful. But I wouldn't overpay. Francisco Cordero was awful last year. While he had a good 2011, his peripherals have shown a steady decline. At at age 38, he's not worth the money or roster space. I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin added a reliever or two for cheap. Some times a player falls into your lap. You just have to be ready to grab him if the chance arises.

Too much money, but it is only 2 years. And he has been really good the last few years. The team is built to win in that time frame. Yes, it's an overpay. But it's not for too many years and it helps solidify the bullpen, which they need help in. And they still can deal Morse for something of value. Even prospects if they desire.

Any recommendations for what is the best site(s) for free fantasy baseball? I'm setting up a league for friends and family. I haven't done fantasy baseball for 10-12 years. I'm looking for something that is free and easy to set up. And easy to manage, since quite a few of the people playing aren't hardcore baseball fans. We're looking to do basic rotisserie baseball - no keepers or anything like that. I am going to have about 10 people - so I was thinking of doing an NL only league. I know some of the big sites have free leagues - ESPN, CBS sports, yahoo, mlb.com. Am I missing any other good sites? Any recommendations as to what's best for my situation? Appreciate the help.

Mass, for what it matters, I like them on separate threads. Otherwise, it's too easy to lose track of them. Thanks.

I think Invader has nailed this. Unless someone comes to us with a knockout offer, they are going to keep Hart. Melvin hopes to contend, but the pitching staff is a huge question mark. I think he'll wait and see how the team looks in the first 1/2 before dealing Hart. Also, this allows you to see Morris at AAA, and get a better feel how well he could replace Hart. Same with Gamel. If he can make the team as a backup 3B/1B/DH/PH he can get some at bats. Let's see how he responds. If Gamel and Morris don't look like the answer for 2014, then perhaps you try and extend Hart at that point (assuming he keeps playing at a high level). I'd also add that we could keep an eye on Khris Davis in 2013. He could potentially replace Hart in 2014. His production was pretty special last year, but it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Some people have suggested moving Davis to 1B if Hart is dealt or leaves. Perhaps that would work. But another option would be to move Braun to 1B and put Davis in LF. I would think Braun would be a great 1B. Of course, maybe Davis is better suited to 1B than LF. Just bringing up options.

My first random baseball item for 2013 - an interview with most of the main cast members and the director from Major League. It's from 2011, but it's pretty funny. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1187813/1/index.htm Uecker is part of the interview. Funny reading how the guys would go to Stormin' and Vukes bar a lot. I love the quote from Margaret Whitton, the woman who played the team's owner: "The thing about Milwaukee is the whole town smells like a brewery at night. It's like some lovely German auntie that crushes you to her beery bosom. Those boys had a blast." Funny trip down memory lane.

I think this is a really fair assessment of our system. Good depth. No stars. I'm sure we can all argue about some of the specific rankings, but I think it is an honest look at our minor leaguers. What is encouraging is the assessment that there are a lot of guys who can help the club. And not just starting pitchers. We need a few bats to emerge in the next couple of years to stay relevant. And we need to develop relievers - cheap, effective relievers. Our track record on relief pitchers is laughable.