Matt Breen

I just want to tell you 'good luck'. We're all counting on you. And please don't call me Shirley.

I think the Mariners would be pretty crazy to do this deal. But hey, if it works, go for it. Sure prospects are unproven, but you're talking up to 12 years of cost control for two highly ranked players in exchange for one year of Corey Hart. Corey is a very good player. But it's one year of the guy. And Paxson and Franklin aren't just mediocre prospects. Going into 2013, they are pretty well thought of players. John Sickels ranks Franklin as the 16th top hitting prospect in the game. He has Paxson as the 25th ranked pitcher. MLB prospect watch as Franklin ranked 29th on their top 100 list. Paxson is the 74th top prospect. These guys are ranked higher than any Brewer (Segura would probably be a top 50 guy if he was still considered a rookie). Sources: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/ http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474442/preliminary-top-50-hitting-prospects-for-2013 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013 Again, the main thing is not that Corey Hart isn't good. It's that it's one year of Hart for 12 years of two excellent prospects.

Brett Myers off the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/indians-to-sign-brett-myers.html This leaves the following players: Erik Bedard Eric Braden Aaron Cook Freddy Garcia Jair Jurrjens Jeff Karstens Kyle Lohse Derek Lowe Shaun Marcum Daisuke Matsuzaka Kevin Millwood Roy Oswalt Carl Pavano Jonathan Sanchez Joe Saunders Chien-Ming Wang Chris Young Carlos Zambrano With the exception of Lohse, everyone has some major issue (injury, age, effectiveness, etc.). The list doesn't include Javier Vazquez, who is reportedly considering a comeback. Vazquez only wants to a play for a team that has a good chance at making the world series (AKA 'a ring harlot'). I doubt he'd consider the Crew a team with a 'good' chance, but you never know. He'd be a nice addition.

I think Estrada, more than anyone but Yo, deserves a slot in our rotation. He pitched very good last year, especially in the second half. If he repeats what he did last year over 30+ starts, he'll be great. I really think Marco will be fine in 2013. But I admit, I have some kernels of doubt. I just want to see Marco repeat his success over a full season in the rotation. Few predicted he'd be as good as he was last year. That's always something to be wary about. He still only has 32 major league starts. 23 in 2012. Hitters can adjust to pitchers. We see it all the time. Especially with guys who don't have the most overwhelming stuff. This could happen to Estrada (same with Fiers). The thing I like about Marco is that he seems to have learned to pitch really well - not just throw. He was never a big prospect, never a guy with a big arm. His minor league numbers were nothing special. Hell, he was waived by Washington in 2010. But I like how Marco pitched in 2012. He attacked hitters. He limited walks. He adjusted when he had issues (like with the gopher ball - 11 HR in his first 50 innings, then 7 in his last 87 innings). I expect success next year. But I wouldn't be shocked if he regressed. PS - interesting article at Disciples of Uecker on Estrada - http://disciplesofuecker.com/the-inimitable-marco-estrada/7505 Marco's gotten to where he is by a bit of a unique path. Also talks about some mechanical adjustments he made last year, which coincided with is improvement.

I don't think we are quite ready to go into rebuilding mode yet. But I understand the argument. I wondered whether that was the thing to do last summer. And while I could understand rebuilding, I think we have to see what we have in 2013 before we declare a fire sale. Here's why. 1. We have the top ranked offense in the NL. We should be good again. Yes, some guys will regress, but others should improve. Even if the team as a whole regresses a little bit offensively, we should still score a lot of runs. 2. I don't think the team really knows what kinds of pitchers they have with Estrada and Fiers. These guys are probably the keys to 2013. They pitched quite well in 2012. Can they do it again over 30+ starts? I don't think anyone knows that answer. But if they can, you have a trio of pitchers (including Yo) who could produce 3.60-3.80 ERAs. There's no 'ace' in that trio, but that would be a really solid group of pitchers to rely upon. If these three could anchor the rotation, you can afford to figure out the other two spots with your young guys (and adding a back of the rotation arm might help mitigate the downside of your #5 starter). If even one of the three rookies (Peralta, Rogers, Thornburg) can then emerge as a reliable back of the rotation guy (or better), you have a staff that can be around league average. Combine that with a good offense, minimal injuries, and a bit of luck, you can contend In the end, I think we have to see how Fiers, Estrada, Peralta, Rogers and Thornburg turn out. All have question marks. But they are not without promise. A low payroll will also allow the team to make a few moves in season, if something is needed. Things could very well blow up on the team, in which case you probably need to revisit the idea of rebuilding - but not without 2-3 months of really seeing how good (or bad) we can be in 2013.

Includes 5th year option. Good comp for Hart's value.

Several writers think he might end up back in St. Louis. Some concern about Carpenters health and Lynne's 2nd half collapse. The fact that he's tied to compensation has certainly hurt him.

Seems like a big overpay. Ross wasn't very good in 2010-11. Last year he raked at Fenway - .921 OPS versus a sub .700 OPS on the road. I never thought he'd get this much. Crazy money.

Carlos gets 2-years and $10 million.

I find it amusing that Haudricourt is quoting info from Fangraphs in the article. A few years back he would probably never have gone to a site like that. Good for him. You're foolish to ignore resources available to you.

John, I think you're about right. I can see Gamel getting 10-20 games started at 1B. 10-20 at 3B. Add in some DH opportunities - maybe another 10-15 starts. That's 30-55 starts. Plus pinch hitting. Mat (or someone in his place) could easily get 200-250 ABs (assuming he produces). A significant injury would only increase those numbers. If he could hit .270 and get 8-10 HR in that setting, he'd be really valuable. Ishikawa and Green combined to have 255 ABs, 7 HR and a .227 BA. I'd also like to point out that getting Gamel some decent at bats will give us a better feel for if he could handle 1B full time in 2014, when Hart is a potential free agent. How Mat plays (as well as Hunter Morris at AAA) will influence if we want to give Hart a contract extension.

The more I think about things the more I believe that doing 'nothing' is probably the best thing for the Brewers. The offense is mostly set, but pitching is so full of question marks. I don't even think the Crew really knows what they have in most of their pitchers. Axford, Fiers, Estrada, Peralta, Thornburg, Henderson, Rogers, Kintzler, Narveson - it's a list of guys who have all had success - even if limited - in some fashion over the past year or two. But they've also struggled. (And there's a host of minor league young power arms that we've picked up over the last year that could produce an arm or two in the bullpen). But what are they going forward? There's a lot of promise here, but I don't think anyone would be shocked if any of these guys did poorly in 2013. But I don't think anyone would be shocked if any of these guys did well (or even just average, which is all we need in some cases) - even exceptional. It's simply a tough group to predict. Lots of things have to come together for the team to do well in 2013. It's not impossible. And it doesn't have to be perfect. Not everyone has to succeed. This team can take a couple of months and see how guys perform and see where we are at in the standing. By not overspending now, we can then make roster adjustments if we feel we can make a run at the playoffs. Odds are that some guys will succeed, while some will fail. We just have to have more success stories than failures. But having the financial flexibility will be invaluable if we do see an opportunity. I think we can still make a few moves in the off season. A back end starter at a reasonable price would help mitigate some of the risk of using two rookies in the rotation. And hedge against injuries (which will likely happen at some point). A right handed bench bat with a little pop would be nice. And relievers are so volatile, it wouldn't be bad to add some low cost guys. But for now, doing nothing is really just waiting for some guys to fall into the bargain bin. That's the time to make a move. It then leaves the club open to further roster moves, depending how the first 1/3 of 2013 goes.

In his Twin stint, Rauch saved 21 of 25, and the Twins won 3 of the 4 games he blew the save in including 2 where he was credited with the win. So I'm not sure what you are objecting to based on his performance there. Look, he's not a world beater, but he's solid, doesn't walk a ton of guys and takes the ball on a regular basis. And he can close in an emergency As for concerns over his HR rate, it's a little high but mostly because of one year (2011) when he gave up 11. The Brewers got a lot of out of Saloman Torres in 2008, and Rauch is a similar type guy. His WHIP last year was under 1.00. Compare that to the Brewer pen last year: Axford 1.442, K-Rod 1.333, Loe 1.434, Veras 1.507, and Parra 1.653. I think Rauch is nothing more than an average guy. Not bad to have, but nothing exceptional. I think that he has closed drives up his price tag. I'd be happy to have the guy for $1 million. But not $3-4 million like he made the last few years.

I was about to come post the same thing. Judging by his numbers last year I agree that he'd be worth a chance. The hard part is that we already have 10-11 relievers on the 40 man roster (and only one spot open at this time). I just wonder about some of our existing players. Like Josh Stinson. The guy walked 71 and struck out 91 in 145 innings at AA. He had a 1.638 WHIP. Those numbers are kind of crappy. Perhaps the team thinks a lot of the guy, but you have to wonder if a guy like Storey doens't have more upside than Stinson.

Monty, this is exactly right. We simply can't always extend every guy - even if we want to. I think Tampa is the prime example of this. They've traded key guys like Delmon Young, Shields and Garza. They've let guys BJ Upton and Carl Crawford leave via free agency. But they also just have drafted well (and not just with their top picks). I guess that's the key. For every guy they trade or let leave via free agency, they have replacements ready. Not all of them work out, but at least it's a plan. Free agency for Tampa is rarely a big signing. But instead a one year deal on guys looking for a chance. I think St. Louis does a good job as well. They use free agency more than Tampa does. But they draft well, and are constantly cycling in new guys. The scary thing for the Brewers is comparing our system to someone like St. Louis. Our lack of impact bats, especially at the upper levels, is painful.

We had Axford and KRod and a bunch of question marks going into last season and those two had their own warts, there was no quality depth at all. I searched for posts about it going into last year but this is all I could find. viewtopic.php?f=63&t=27699&p=772458&hilit=bullpen#p772458 We lost guys from the 2011 bullpen and just hoped that someone would emerge to replace them but we didn't exactly have a lot of raw talent. Loe, Dillard, Parra, Braddock were all guys I had no faith in and the guys behind them seemed pretty low upside for young bullpen arms. Veras seemed like just a filler arm as well. I figured we would struggle a lot in games that didn't go KRod - Axford and if one of those guys got hurt we would have real problems. The fact they both stunk for much of the year really brought that lack of depth into play. I never understood how people looked at the bullpen as a strength going into last year, I just didn't expect it to be a weakness. It was just a really mediocre bullpen on paper, one that shouldn't blow many saves but should have some problems getting to the 8th inning. Of course we ended up with exactly the opposite problem so what do I know~. I also remember Melvin talking about the lack of financial flexibility with the bullpen last year. K-Rod, Parra, Loe and Veras all had guaranteed contracts last year. These are our 2-5 bullpen guys. There was a lot of money tied up in them, and he had to give them a long leash. Our payroll was maxed out, and he couldn't just cut a guy and add more salary. He had to work with what we had and hope they'd rebound. I think this year's pen will be a lot of 1st and 2nd year players. We'll roll the dice with them. If they fail, back to Nashville and give another a try. We still might add a veteran or two, but only if it works financially for us.

Anyone familiar with Mickey Storey? The guy got designated for assignment by the Astros today. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/astros-designate-storey-for-assignment.html He was a rookie last year - age 26. He split time at AAA. In the bigs he did pretty good - at least stat wise. He had a 3.86 ERA in 30 innings. 34K and 10BB. At AAA, he was better - a 3.05 ERA, 72K in 65 innings - and only 12 walks. Before 2012 he was pretty average. Decent looking, but nothing to get excited about. Stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storemi01.shtml I was wondering if anyone remembered watching him pitch last year - any opinions. He seems like a decent kind of player to take a flyer on if you have the roster space.

LaRoche's 2011 season should probably be looked at more as an aberration - he hit .172 in 43 games, playing injured the entire season injured before finally undergoing surgery. Ultimately, it turned out he had a torn labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff. You can't discount 2011 entirely (in fact, the injury he had might be something to be worried about). But it really skews the whole 3 year comparison approach. No matter - even throwing out 2011, and just using LaRoche's 2010 and 2012 numbers, Hart's produced more. The OPS+ average for Corey (as noted by Pogokat) is 128. LaRoche put up OPS+ of 106 and 128 in 2010 and 12. LaRoche is also older by 3 years - and (this is strictly my opinion) approaching sloth-like skills on the basepaths. Okay, maybe that's a little overdoing it, but LaRoche is not a good runner. Corey doesn't have the speed he used to, but for a 1st baseman, he's not to bad.

LaRoche Career .268/.338/.482/.820 OPS+ 114 Exceptional Defense Hart Career .276/.334/.491/.824/ OPS+ 116 Exceptional Height I fail to see which one is "clearly inferior". Unless you're discussing the entire career of the players, to use stats from from 5-10 years ago is really not a good way to judge the value of a player at this moment. I think looking at the last three years is probably a far more fair way to compare the players.

I remember when Pelfrey came out of college. We picked Braun a few slots ahead of him. I liked Braun, but would have been happy with Pelfrey at the time. I thought he was going to be really good. He's been terribly mediocre.

That's a pretty good deal for Wigginton. The Cards won't have to overuse the guy, which should help his numbers. But multiple years (not to mention the overall dollars) seems steep for a guy who wasn't very good last year, and is aging.

Because he's a terrible pitcher and just put up a career year (and not even that impressive of a career year) at age 33. He's also a Cardinal. I think the last sentence was enough to explain my loathing.

Please someone sign Lohse so Doug doesn't get tempted to go after him. For some reason I just loathe the guy. Plus we'd have to give up a draft pick to get him.

just had to add this: http://gearpatrol.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/big-league-chew-30th-anniversary-gear-patrol-salute.jpg

You nailed it, Torts. Those are very good numbers. Why not go after him if he's healthy? Gotta wonder.