Matt Breen

our pain has been drawn out far longer

I wouldn't expect much for K-Rod. Sure he's been playing decent of late, but it's not like he's shutdown. He has a 3.59 ERA - the league average for a reliever is 3.66. And while ERA is just one way to judge a guy - it's very average. His 1.43 WHIP is not good either. Too many walks - especially earlier this year. This is not K-Rod of five years ago. And let's not forget he's owed $3.5 milliion or so the rest of the season. To me you're lucky to get someone who projects as nothing more than a fringe player or a relief arm. Perhaps if we pick up some of the salary, that will improve things. But who knows. Maybe someone will bite on his 'name' and overpay. Also, by letting him close the next couple of weeks, maybe he'll put together some nice outings and convince a team he's worth something decent.

he's got long arms

major league pitching can be different things to different people. it can mean an existing veteran. or perhaps a player ready to be in the big leagues. we don't really know what 'major league pitching' means to dougie. I argue you get the best ceiling guy you can, even if he's not in the majors or super close to the majors. but i think the team thinks the crew can be competitive sooner than later - and want someone who can help now or next year.

If you deal A-Ram, you should simply get the best available, high ceiling player, as possible. I don't care if he's in A ball or wherever. We should go for upside and not try and add a mediocre veteran. We need cost control and upside. If you want a mediocre veteran pitcher, you can sign one in the off season.

Awesome, in-depth look at Mike Fiers pitching style on Beyond the Boxscore: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/7/9/3146765/michael-fiers-versus-the-radar-gun-how-is-he-winning Pretty fascinating.

I'm generally one of the last to leave the optimism ship. I always have that 'maybe we can win 10 in a row' attitude. But I'm packing my bags. Not quite heading ashore, but this team is certainly frustrating.

The A-Ram signing didn't thrill me, but he's been playing pretty good - especially with the (really) slow start. If he keeps hitting well, he could easily be an .850 OPS guy by the end of the year. Maybe better. He's got a ton of doubles - I think 27 or so. Some of those can easily turn into HRs in the 2nd half, so he could reach 25 or so HR instead of the 20 he's projected now. And while is defense isn't anything great, I've been happier with it than I anticipated. That said, if the team really thinks they can't contend in the next two years, they should trade him. By the 3rd year of the deal, he'll be pushing 36, and a decline in productivity could easily be in the cards.

Trade Kottaras for whatever you can get for him. He's got some value - not a ton - but someone will probably be interested in him. Just don't expect a lot. But we're not talking about Yogi Berra here. He's a back up catcher with limited defensive skills. Sure he's got some pop from the left side - and the walk rate is great. But he's not irreplaceable. Maldonado is cheaper and better defensively than Kottaras. All three of Maldonado, Lucroy and Kottaras have shown they can play in the majors. George is the guy who draws the short straw. Less upside, costs more, etc. So get what you can.

There's a whole thread on this in the trade forum: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=28467

Sheets had an 8.0 WAR in 2004. You're totally rigth - it was unreal. Just staggering when you think about it.

Anyone have a translation for this? I ran it through Google translation and it came out: I don't want the Brewers to make a trade for a player who isn't going to really help the team big time in the future. Instead, I would roll the dice and try and win this year.

Well, if they don't see Dillard as a major leaguer, then good for them to get rid of him. I think Dillard can be successful if he's limited against lefties, but even lately he's been bad against both lefties and righties. So it's hard to argue with this one.

Texas has lost five in a row. Maybe a good losing streak will make them more apt to pony up for Greinke.

No! Jamie Moyer can't quit. He's the only guy on a major sports team actually older than me!!!

The only problem with this is if Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf are all gone, those are likely our 2-5 starters (without adding anyone via FA). I know you said if they don't make the starting rotation but I would bet Estrada and Fiers are pretty much locked in at this point. And if Peralta finishes the year strong, he will most likely make the rotation as well. At this point, you have to feel Fiers is a lock for 2013. Also Gallardo. That leaves Narveson, Peralta, Thornburg and Estrada in position to wrap up the rotation. It would be gutsy to go with two rookies in the rotation, but if they are the best guys, great. That said, if need to find three starting pitchers, adding a FA is probably wise. You could add a modestly priced player on a one or two year deal. Someone less than $10 million annually. If you lose Parra, Loe, Veras, K-Rod, Morgan, Gonzalez, Wolf Greinke and Marcum the team is shedding about $50 million in payroll. You need about $15 million to cover raises and arbitration cases, so you could spend some cash on a couple of relievers as well as one mid-back of the rotation guy. An example is a guy like Paul Malholm signed a one year deal for $5 million, with a $6.5 million option for 2013. Or Joe Saunders signed for one year/$6 million. Or the the deal that the Pirates made to get Burnett. Again, these are just examples. If you are, indeed, replacing three starters, you could fill one via free agency - or a trade like Burnett - where you aren't really doing anything but take on salary. Can't forget - you still have to fill the shortstop position - so you need some money for that.

My bullpen solution is as follows: 1. Let K-Rod go (if we bag the season now, just getting salary relief would be fine). 2. Let Loe go via FA. He's okay, but nothing special. You can consider having him back if you can get him at about $1.5 on a one year deal. 3. According to the BF.net salary page, Veras is a FA. Let him walk. 4. Let Manny Parra go. He's got one more year until FA, but he'll make $2 million and he's maddeningly inconsistent. 5. Keep Axford. It's a risk, but that's okay. He's been great for two years. Let's see if he can fix things by 2013. 6. Target a couple of good relievers in free agency - see if you can get them on 2 year deals. Examples include Mike Adams and Grant Balfour (perhaps other players fit just as well - these are just examples). Yes they cost $3-4 million or so a year. Sure those kind of guys can fluctuate in performance. Sure those kind of guys are getting older. But if they stay healthy, they are likely to be good (sometimes even great). And you don't have to pay them closer money. 7. Move Mark Rogers to the bullpen. Let him focus on mastering two pitches. Let him focus on throwing strikes. He could be a great asset if he could do so. 8. Let Dillard, McClendon and Henderson compete for spots on the roster. 9. Consider adding Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers and Estrada to the bullpen if they they don't make the starting rotation. 10. I would probably add a situational lefty. No, it's not perfect. Not by a long shot. You need Axford to rebound. I'm spreading K-Rod's $8 million over a couple vets that we hope can provide some stability. You add in some young, power arms (Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers) - especially if the player doesn't make the rotation. Then you mix in other guys to round out the mix. You can also, potentially, add some guys if we trade Marcum and/or Greinke.

If Marcum comes back and pitches well, i bet they offer him arby. A one year deal at $12-13 million is okay. It's nice not having the long term commitment to a guy. Plus, Marcum is likely going to be looking for a multi-year deal. If he can end up pitching well once he comes back, I wouldn't see it hard for him to land a 3-year (or longer) deal at $12+ million a season. If for some reason he doesn't get the deal, we have a huge hole in the rotation filled for 2013, without the long term commitment.

I don't know about runs at the end of the game, but here's a look at starters vs relievers. Our starters are slightly above average for 2012. They ranked 14th in the major leagues with a 4.02 ERA. They have given up 220 earned runs in 490 innings pitched. Our relievers ranked 29th in ERA (4.79). Obviously, this is awful. They have given up 124 earned runs in 220 innings. Interesting note - our relievers have surrendered 21 unearned runs. Our starters have 11 unearned runs. If our relievers were pitching as well as the starters (4.02 ERA), we'd be right in the middle of the pack in the majors - 17th.

Jose Veras has a WHIP of 1.83. For players with 20 or more innings pitched, he ranks 370th out of 378 pitchers. That is really sucking.

I don't think the team will trade Hart because no matter what happens with Greinke, the team's leaders - Melvin and Mark A. - will look to 'retool' instead of rebuild. I'm not saying that is bad or good, but I'm saying that is what I think they will do. Here's why: The team will return all of it's main position players in 2013. They are 4th in the NL in runs scored. That's pretty good. There will likely be some tweaks - maybe something like swapping Schafer for Morgan - but the main players will return (Lucroy, Maldonado, Hart, Weeks, A-Ram, Braun, Gomez, Aoki). The challenge will be to find a SS and a better bench. The pitching is really the issue. The club will likely lose Marcum, Greinke and Wolf. The latter is no big deal. The bullpen needs an overhaul. Of the guys there now, only Axford is set. Is it doable to restructure your starting pitching and relief pitching in such as short time? Again, I think Melvin and Mark A. will say 'yes'. For starting pitching, Estrada and Fiers will have the rest of the year to prove they belong in the rotation. We'll also have Narveson returning. Peralta, Mark Rogers and Thornburg are options as well (some more realistic than others). The bullpen gets Axford, and then some young arms. Guys like Rogers and Peralta - if they don't make the rotation - can go here. Henderson. And then they will spend some money to fill the holes in the rotation and bullpen (as well as bench depth). Morgan, K-Rod, Veras, Loe, Wolf, Marcum, Greinke, Gonzalez and Parra make around $50 million this year. Some money will go to raises - roughly $15 million for guys like Braun, Gallardo, A-Ram, Lucroy, etc. - but we should have a decent amount to add a starting pitcher or two and a couple of relievers. This can be either via free agency or trades (like how Pittsburgh added AJ Burnett). I don't expect them to go after Cole Hamels - but there are middling starters that might fit the team's budget and circumstance. Then sign 2-3 good relievers in the 3-5 million range - Balfour, Mike Adams are a couple of examples. A bullpen with Axford, Mike Adams, Grant Balfour, Peralta, Rogers starts looking more interesting. Also, we can't forget that if we give up 2012, we likely deal Greinke (and probably Marcum too, if he gets healthy). Guys like Wolf and K-Rod won't net anything exceptional in return, but Greinke and a healthy Marcum could land something of real quality. A shortstop would be great. A starting pitcher would help too. Finally, you do need to find a SS somehow. Free agents are terrible. In the end, it's a house of cards. A couple of injuries can ruin everything. But I think Doug and Mark A. have an attitude that will make them 'retool' as opposed to rebuild. That means keeping Cory for at least another season.

Two outs on the basepaths today? is that correct.

Profar would be awesome. But that would be near impossible. He was just listed as the top prospect in baseball by John Sickels - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update - and guys like that are rarely traded. I wonder if we could give back something (along with Greinke) to facilitate the deal - something we have an excess of. But I really don't know what. It's not like we're loaded with quality depth. Maldonado would be a nice guy for them. Young. Cheap. Their current catchers are Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba. Napoli is okay this year (nothing like last season), but a free agent after the season. Torrealba will be 34 this month, and is a serviceable backup - nothing more. While I like Maldonado, he's not essential, especially if you can get a top SS. I don't know if Texas has a good catching prospect - but I'm just trying to get creative. Maybe paying some of Greinke's salary would clinch it. Or maybe they's have interest in one of our CFs - Morgan or Gomez or Schafer. I don't know the Rangers that well, so I'm sure others could identify what other needs they have - and if we could potentially help them meet those needs (without giving up key prospects or players of our own).

The scouts love seeing the sausage races, just like the fans.

I agree that this could happen - but I'd hold off until we see if Greinke is dealt. If Zack is traded, that means we are throwing in the towel for 2012. Then there's no reason to keep Izturis (or K-Rod, or Marcum or anyone else that's a free agent after the season that we can't/don't want to sign). If Zack is kept and we claw our way back to .500, RR will go with the 'veteran' guy almost every time.