He's had OBP of .340, .356 and .312 over the past three years. I don't think it's wise to only look at this year (although I believe that it should be weighed more heavily than past seasons). A good month and he can suddenly have a .350 OBP. I guess you have to look at him - look at the scouting reports, examine other stats, watch his at bats - and determine if he's on the 'decline'. Is a .312 OBP what you anticipate going forward? If so, he's definitely not worth it. I suppose playing the waiting game is best. See how he plays out 2012. And how your other assets in the minors play out. Another point -- if you don't extend him, there are usually options available in that same $10 million/year area. Examples include Cudyer, LaRoche, Willingham, etc. So if you're looking for a 2-3 year stop gap, you can always dip into the FA market. You certainly don't want to saddle yourself with an unnecessary long term contract if it can be avoided.