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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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Michael Hunt of the Journal Sentinel said a couple days ago that hart wasn't interested in playing 1B. But as poorly as the Brewers were defensively against the Cardinals in the last two games of the NLDS, they cannot afford another liability in the infield. Whether it's Mat Gamel, whom they sent to Nashville to learn how to play first base, or Corey Hart, who doesn't want to play the position again, or somebody outside the organization, a minimum of an average defensive player is mandatory. http://www.jsonline.com/s...addressed-132030053.html
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Hunt at the Journal Sentinel said in a column that Hart didn't want to play 1B. Here's the line: But as poorly as the Brewers were defensively against the Cardinals in the last two games of the NLDS, they cannot afford another liability in the infield. Whether it's Mat Gamel, whom they sent to Nashville to learn how to play first base, or Corey Hart, who doesn't want to play the position again, or somebody outside the organization, a minimum of an average defensive player is mandatory. He didn't elaborate further. http://www.jsonline.com/s...addressed-132030053.html
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I would pass on Lee. He's not going to get better at his age. He's brutally slow. His defense is average at best. His bat is average at best. That means he'll be average - at best. I would rather take a chance on Gamel at 1B (or in RF if you move Hart to 1B) and bet he can be at least average. An average Gamel at 400k is way better than an aging Carlos Lee at $5-10 million (or whatever part of the salary we'd have to take on). I'd rather try and find a solution for the next several years rather than a 1 year stop gap. PS - Carlos killed lefties in 2011 (over a 1.000 OPS). Against righties he's quite bad (.715 OPS). Tendencies like these often grow as a player ages. He's actually a perfect platoon guy at this stage of his career - if he only cost you $1-2 million.
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I was 18 in 1982. I was at the 5th game of the World Series. I still remember where I was for game 7. But I thought we'd be back. Little did I know. I don't really feel cheated or angry. I feel an intense disappointment - because I don't know when (or if) we'll get another chance to win it all. As young guns says, I think we can retool for next year, but anything can throw a wrench in those plans (injuries, whatever). I do think we have management in place that will keep us from the dark ages like under Sal Bando. So that encourages me. I'm optimistic about 2012. But while i'm disappointed in how this year ended, I appreciate what we did and the effort the team made. People have pointed last year's Packer's as a team that got hot at the right time. That's part of baseball too. You need players to be healthy and playing well to win a World Series. Let's hope our team is that team next year.
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He really wasn't. He was one of the worst hitting SS in baseball this year. Well below average. He was above replacement level on the season, which is better than you EVER gave him credit for. He didn't get on base much (but not many shortstops do), but he was above average at slugging. His offense was close to league average simply because the SS position is somewhat down from previous seasons. No one wants him back next season, but I don't think we would have gone any further this season with the mythical replacement level SS you were clamoring for going into the season. Yuni as a hitter in 2011 Based upon 19 SS qualifying 17th in AVE 18th in OBP 13th in SLG 16th in OPS So, based upon guys who played every day, he's not average. However, that's not fair in that 11 teams didn't have a guy qualify, perhaps because they stunk. So let's expand the plate appearances to 350 - that will give us 31 shortstops. Yuni's positions out of 31 shortstops: 21 in AVE 23 in OPS 28 in OBP 16 in SLG That puts Yuni around the lower 1/3 mark as a hitter. He is average when it comes to slugging, but below average to very bad in others. Oh yes, he was 6th in RBI and 8th HR for all SS last year. Those numbers matter to people. However, I argue the RBI numbers are simply a reflection of his opportunities. The HR show in his average slugging percentage numbers.
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This offseason work to resign Saito, Hawkins and Hairston Counsel, Yuni, Kotsay are let go/retire. Sign Barmes at SS (2-year $8 million). It costs nothing in draft picks. Fielder and K-Rod are FA and gone. Take the draft picks if possible. Cut McGehee (unless you really think he can rebound, but otherwise, he's due to make $2-3 million in arby) Give 3B to Green Give 1B to Gamel Sign someone to platoon with Gamel at 1B if necessary (and play 3B if he can). Keep Gomez to platoon with Morgan. Give a guy like Gindl or Schafer a backup spot in the OF. The 2012 team: Your rotation is intact from last year. Great. It was a strength, despite what happened in the playoffs. Keep it together. if there are injuries, you have candidates to replace the starters.Bullpen is intact, except for K-Rod. I like trying out a guy like Peralta in the pen. You also have a bevy of guys coming back from injuries/minors - stetter, parra, kintzler, McClendon, Braddock - who could help out.Defense is going to be better with no Fielder, Yuni and McGehee. I'm not saying Gamel and Green are gold glovers, but they are upgrades. A barmes type SS is also a huge upgrade over yuni. The big question is do you 'trust' rookies at 3B and 1B. I say, what the hell. They have nothing left to prove at AAA. You either need to give them a chance or get rid of them. Give 'em the job now and know they'll have some struggles, but also that they will have a chance to thrive. And if they don't? You have a guy like Hairston who can play some at 3B. As well as McGehee (if you keep him) or whomever you sign to platoon with Gamel. But more importantly, your payroll isn't that high - around $80 million. You have the financial flexibility to add a player like K-Rod if needed. So if Gamel is flopping after two months, and we decide he'll never figure it out, you can snag a decent player for cheap (like with K-Rod) to replace him. There's a huge upside to Gamel and/or Green succeeding. Cheap talent putting up decent numbers is gold for a team like Milwaukee.
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John, your defense of Yuni, especially against the chorus, is admirable, but I think misguided. A good 2nd half hitting doesn't replace the fact that Yuni is an awful shortstop. You may disagree, but I think 9 out of 10 people will concur. And it's not just fans jumping on a 'hate Yuni' bandwagon so they have someone to blame. Watch him - he's bad. He can't move to his right (or won't even try). I can forgive the lackadaisical approach in the field, the muffs of easy grounders, the all-over-the-place throws to first. But his range is brutal. And it's not just my 'eye' that tells me this. Stats (for what they are worth) agree as well. Out of 22 qualifying SS, he had the fourth most errors (not a great way, I feel to judge fielding, but one way to look at them). He had the fourth worst Range Factor and the fourth worst Range Factor. Fangraphs had him as the 3rd worst fielding SS in baseball. As for hitting, he had a great postseason and solid 2nd half - but that doesn't excuse his first half. Or the previous seasons. Yes, he has some pop. Yes, he drove in runs last year, but that doesn't mean he's actually any good at it. He his .211 with runners on base. .237 with runners in scoring position. .143 with bases loaded (only 21 ABs), and .231 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. He simply got RBIs because he had guys on base ahead of him, and he had the chance. Any player with enough chances would do the same thing. Alos, out of 145 players who qualified for the batting title, he had the fewest pitches per plate appearance. He doesn't hit well enough to be this free with his swings. It's selfish. More pitches taken means greater effort on the opposing pitchers - something that helps the team as a whole. I don't think you can expect him to hit .270/.290/.400 next year. He hasn't hit that good since 2008. His stats this year are right inline with the past few years. Finally, at 30, he's not going to get better. He's not suddenly going to develop patience. And he certainly isn't going to suddenly develop range (of course, if he lost some weight and dedicated himself to the game more, that might help). As I said, John, you see a lot more in Yuni that most people don't. Power to you. But I think it's a bad, bad play to keep him. And I think most people agree.
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This would be an insane amount to pay Fukedome. No way he's worth this much. He's a slap hitting platoon guy. Of course, maybe I'm wrong. I just think it would be crazy.
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I'm going to give the 'WAR' argument for not resigning Fielder. Whether you agree with WAR or not, this is just one way to illustrate a player's value - and how we can replace it (in the case of Fielder). Fangraphs gives Fielder a WAR of 5.5 for 2011. The question is how can we replace that if we let him walk? You can't - if you only consider 1B. But remember, you can make other moves that will, as a whole, help overcome Fielder leaving. 1. Sign Barmes to replace Yuni. Barmes has a 3.1 WAR for 2011. Yuni had a 0.5. Now, let's just hope Barmes pulls a 2.0 WAR. That would net us a +1.5 WAR at SS. 2. Replace McGehee. He had a 0.3 WAR last year. Let's give Green the job and bet on him being okay. Let's say a 2.0 WAR. That means a +1.7 WAR at 3B. 3. At 1B (or RF if you move Hart to 1B), bank on a player that can get a 2.0 WAR. Can Gamel do that? Either way, that means you're swapping this guy for Prince - a -3.5 WAR. Totals: +1.5 at SS +1.7 at 3B -3.5 at 1B That's a net total of -0.3 WAR - not a huge deal. And at about $5 million - not $25 million. Of course, maybe you don't buy Gamel or Green getting 2.0 WAR in 2012. Fine. Then bank on someone else. But you can probably replace 5.5 WAR with far less than $25 million - and at a lot fewer years. Just a thought.
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You can win with crappy defense. You just need a way to compensate - meaning a better offense and/or better pitching. That simple. I don't think there's a set formula.
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Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?
Matt Breen replied to Robideaux's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nope, he's arby eligible: http://www.mlbtraderumors...s-milwaukee-brewers.html The BF.net salary page says so too. http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewTeamSalary.do?teamId=1 Here's the list of arby eligible guys, including the MLBtraderumors.com estimates: First time: Casey McGehee ($3.1MM), Nyjer Morgan ($1.9MM), George Kottaras ($700-800K), Mitch Stetter ($700-800K) Second time: Kameron Loe ($2.8MM), Manny Parra ($960K), Josh Wilson ($700-800K) Third time: Shaun Marcum ($6.8MM), Carlos Gomez ($1.8MM) Loe I find a bit high - same with McGehee, but that's probably because I'm too close to this year's awful season. I'd lose Wilson and Parra. I'll assume Stetter is coming back healthy. I'm not sure about McGehee. The rest have value to the team. -
Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?
Matt Breen replied to Robideaux's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
i read at mlbtraderumors.com they expect mcgehee to make about $3 million through arby (remember, it's not just this year they look at, but past years). i wonder if it's worth to keep him around at that price. you think we'd be able to get someone better for $3 million. someone you could count on. just a thought. i wonder if they non-tender and hope he resigns. maybe they can make an agreement beforehand. get him for cheaper if they promise him a fair shot at winning 3B job. -
I, for one, am glad 'Beast Mode' is done with
Matt Breen replied to DuWayne Steurer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
awesome. -
I would love to keep Fielder, but not at $20+ a year for 7-8 years. Too much risk for this team. His defense is bad, and will only get worse. His baserunning is awful and will likely get worse as well. I fully expect him to pound 40 HR for the next 4-5 years - he's right at his peak age for performance, and while he doesn't look like an athlete, he seems to work hard to and love to play. If he would do a five year deal I'd be fine with - at most - about $20 million. After that, I think the money can go to other resources. I expect someone to offer Prince 7 years at $23 million. I just wouldn't go there if I was milwaukee.
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I, for one, am glad 'Beast Mode' is done with
Matt Breen replied to DuWayne Steurer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
it had its moment. time to move on from it. with prince gone, i think it'll be done. i agree it got too much. i thought it was fun when guys truly did something good, but after every single hit, it was sort of 'whatever'. if anything, i hope it teaches the player to celebrate the end result of the work - not just every little moment. A hit, a homer, whatever, is the not the defining moment of a game. It's winning the game that counts most. it doesn't mean you can't celebrate the excitement of the moment. I'm all for that. just know that in the end, it's winning that matters most. -
The team won 96 games this year. We lose Fielder. That's huge, but not irreplaceable. How do we go forward. Start with better defense. Replace McGehee and Yuni to start. Then whoever replaces Prince will almost for sure be a better defender. Our pitchers will appreciate the fact we can make routine plays, and they won't have to make so many extra 'outs' because so many guys lack range. As for offense, we'll never replace prince's numbers, but if you can get a guy that can get you an .800 OPS (gamel?), you're doing okay. Couple that with a third baseman who can manage a .750ish ops (Green?), and a shortstop that can match Yuni's offense, but be way better at defense (Barmes?) - you can probably come close to replicating the offensive and defensive production of the1B, SS and 3B positions as a whole. It's not sexy, but it probably works. It makes us more consistent up and down the lineup, and makes our defense much better. I think the pitching can be as good next year. A lot will come down to health. I'm saddened by the end of this season, but i'm optimistic for 2012.
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Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?
Matt Breen replied to BillyRed's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm thinking the Brewers need to identify which one they want to go with for one more year, as I think they will get a bit more $ than you listed. Prognosis of Stetter? Braddock back. McClendon. De Le Cruz. Defilice/Dillard.the relievers all kind of bunch together. you let a couple of them shake out - especially get a lefty in. Braddock or Stetter (maybe even Manny Parra). I based Saito on the fact that he got $1.75 last year after coming off a better year in 2010. I figured after his injuries (only 30 games this year), he wouldn't be getting a raise. For Hawk, I considered his injuries and age as well as performance (which was good). I saw him in a mid-tier group of reliever free agents - guys like Choate, Carrasco, Uehara last season, who after 2010 got $2-2.5 million. Above this group were guys like Farnesworth, Rausch, Rhodes, Dotal - guys who got $3-4 million. A lot of these guys closed (at least to some degree) or were awesome all year (like Rhodes was in 2010). I didn't see Hawkins as being viewed in the same vein as the latter group. He appeared in 52 games - and only 18 the year before. So, the injuries, and age, he'll be 39 in December, really keep him from getting too much. I think a one year deal at $2-2.5 is pretty generous. -
Would you hold back Greinke for Game 6 now??
Matt Breen replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's baseball - whether at Busch or Miller Park - time to stand up and just win. No way I hold Greinke back. It makes it look like we need a crutch - which I don't think we do. -
Every thing I've read indicates the yanks will pick up Swisher's contract. Ibanez is a terrible fielder. Fangraphs had his UZR at -18.9 this year. His WAR was -1.3. Just awful. He'll be 40 next year - we should avoid him like the plague.
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You could try Gindl, but he's probably a platoon guy at this point - something we have in CF already. Don't know if that's a great idea.
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Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?
Matt Breen replied to BillyRed's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Hmmm. I didn't know Fielder could play SS. How good would a team of eight Lucroys? Or can he play SS too? That's apples to oranges my friend. He'd be better or at least as good as a team of 8 Orlando Cabreras, Ronny Cedenos. Jack Wilsons, Edgar Renterias, Clint Barmeses, Paul Janishes, Craig Counsells, Josh Wilsons, and on and on. How far down is a 96 win team pulled anyway? Every other Brewer team in history been pulled down farther. If you think Betancourt is better than Barmes you're beyond help. Yuni and barmes have similar stats - but Barmes is a far better fielder (of course, most shortstops are far better than Yuni). In Yuni's defense, he was better than most of the guys on John Briggs' list - Janish, Wilson, Counsell, Cabrera. Throw in Tejada in SF as well. He was awful. Probably not Cedeno. And definately not barmes. give Yuni credit for staying healthy. he rarely gets hurt. I attribute that to his amazing ability to just watch ground balls go past him on his right instead of going after them. i'm all for Barmes. I think 2 years and $8 million would do it. I say strike quick and make the signing - let teams who need shortstops mess around to see who gets Reyes (who I love, but not at $20 million a year) or Rollins. Then i say resign Hawkins, Saito to one year deals. Hairston to a two year deal. Give Gamel 1B. Let Green and McGehee fight out 3B. Here's salaries, with guesses. Of course, you could easily remove/swap out some guys (I put Gindl as a back up OF, but maybe is Schafer). Also, my arby numbers are guesses, so we could easily go up or down a bit here and there. Lucroy - $.5 million Kottaras - $.5 Gamel - .5 Weeks - 10.0 Barmes - 4.0 Green - .5 McGehee - 2.0 Hairston - 3.0 Braun - 6.0 Hart - 6.5 Morgan - 2.5 Gomez - 1.5 Gindle - .5 OFFENSE: $38 million Greinke - $13.5 Marcum - $7 Wolf - 9.5 Narveson - .5 Gallardo - 5.5 Estrada - .5 Peralta - .5 Dillard - .5 Axford - .5 Loe - 2.5 Hawkins - 2.5 Saito - 1.5 Fiers - .5 PITCHING: $45 million Total: $83 million Plenty to spend on upgrades during the season, such as if there was an injury or if Gamel flops. Just a rough plan. -
New Miami Marlins Logo Leaked.
Matt Breen replied to berniebrewer4life's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
man, you gave me a seizure at the thought of charlie the unicorn. My son used to watch that thing all the time.

