Matt Breen

Gamel put up a .760 OPS on 128 ABs in 2009. That's not that bad for the situation. He showed decent power, a strong walk rate. Don't get me wrong, the strikeouts were brutal. But I wish he was given the job now. He should be able to build on that. - He's got three years of experience under his belt. - He is older, and - hopefully - more mature. - His initial exposure was somewhat haphazard (as we've discussed only played 1/2 time when he was called up). - He's not having to worry about screwing up every day at 3B All this should make a good situation for him. I think we should roll the dice on him - give him the chance.

Bloomquist turned down 2 years / $4.6 million from San Francisco. JRJ figures to do better. 2 years / $5 million might do it.

Nats catcher Wilson Ramos has reportedly been kidnapped. I don't know Spanish, so I can't translate the twitter link they provide. Scary. Let's hope for the best. Updated link: http://www.mlbtraderumors...napped-in-venezuela.html

I think the Cleveland GM, Shapiro, said something like a season is divided in thirds. 1/3 to determine what's working and what's not. 1/3 to fix your problems. 1/3 to finish out with your best lineup. I think the 1/3 marker is a reasonable look at a player. Give the guy 150-200 ABs. Let them play 5 times a week. See how they are perform. On a contending team, if a guy isn't doing his job after 2 months, it's time to start looking at someone else.

The only way I sign Kotchman or Pena is at a reasonable base salary, and maybe some incentives for playing time. AND if you really don't trust Mat Gamel. I don't trust Kotchman - one good year in the past four is scary. I haven't watched him play lately, so I don't know if he figured something out or what. But I'd be wary. But I could see $3-4 million on a one year deal. I like getting some good defense on the field. He needs a platoon partner. For Pena, he's pretty consistent and you know what he is - low (sometimes very low) average, 30 HR, 160 strikeouts, good defense, lot of walks. I just worry he'll hit .196 like in 2010. He turns 34 early next year, and losing a little bat speed will only exacerbate his tendencies. And he can't hit lefties worth diddly crap anymore. He needs a platoon partner. He had a sub .600 OPS versus lefties last year. For Pena, I could see $5 million and incentives. But I think he's a bigger risk (and bigger reward) than Kotchman. With both kotchman and Pena you're looking at two guys who show some significant split numbers. Both should probably be platooned. Which makes me just say, why not try Gamel out and platoon him? He's cheaper than all of them. May as well try it - at least in my book.

Willie Bloomquist has re-signed with Arizona. 2 years for a total of $3.8 million. This deal affects the Brewers indirectly as Bloomquist is not unlike Jerry Hairston Jr. - at least with the bat. JHJ is a better fielder. If we want to re-sign JHJ, we probably will need to pony up $2 million a year - perhaps for two years. I'd be okay with JHJ for 2 years / $4 million. It would solidify the back up infielder position for a couple of years. http://scott-miller.blogs...s/entry/6270335/33204585

Thanks Mass. I've read thousands of your posts, and appreciate all you've done. Its been great.

Too high a price and too many years. K-rod has to be happy as the market gets set high for closers. It also might be a harbinger for free agency as a whole - which means big deals for the top players.

The following is what I expect to happen this off season. Please note it's not necessarily what I want to happen - just what I expect. 1. Kick the tires on Jose Reyes and find him too expensive. 2. Sign or trade for a veteran SS. Barmes is one example. Perhaps acquire Brendan Ryan. That sort of thing. Nothing that will cost the team a lot. 3. Sign 2 or 3 veteran relievers to one or two year deals. Hawkins and Saito are possibilities. I won't be shocked if Doug goes after a players like Broxton or Lidge. I think Doug loved the '2nd closer' idea after he got K-Rod, and will try and replicate it. Kerry Wood would fit as well, but he might not want to play outside of Chicago. Matt Capps is another guy that Doug might go after. 4. He'll keep Kottaras but wait to see if Maldanado is ready, and go with the latter if he shows the ability to handle big league pitching. 5. Resign Hairston - 2 year deal 6. Keep Gomez and Nyjer as a CF platoon. 7. Probably keep Gindl or Schafer as a 5th OF, but perhaps bring in a veteran like Kotsay. But I'll predict the former. 8. Will look into bringing in Carlos Pena for cheap, but won't go to high. No more than $5 million. After that, he'll maybe talk to Derrick Lee. Won't bring it either unless they are bargains. Both, however, won't want to come to Milwaukee because they won't be promised the job, and someone else will pay them more. 9. Will end up with a low level RH backup 1B type to platoon with Gamel or Pena. Not sure who this will be. 10. Decide to cut Casey McGehee. Won't want to be on the hook for the $3 million salary. 11. Go with Green at 3B. 12. Prep Parra to be the LH specialist in the bullpen In the end, Dougie will hold onto the big money. He'll spend on his bullpen, and try to bring in a veteran right handed bat to keep Gamel honest. It will be, to be all honest, very unexciting. He'll then look to shore things up in spring training, like he did with Nyjer, since he'll have room in his budget to take on some salary.

Barmes is a good defensive SS. Is he great? No. But watching him play the field, he does things very well. He doesn't make many flashy plays or have the strongest arm. But he is very solid in his approach. Defensive stats, which most will agree are a mixed bag, back up my assessment: Out of 22 qualifying SS in 2011, Barmes: Tied for 8th best fielding % was 10th in range factorwas 11 in Zone ratinghad the 5th highest UZR (from Fangraphs)This points to him being an above average fielder. Not great, but above average. His hitting is slightly below average. Average at best. He has average to above average power, walks at a solid rate, but hits for a lower average. All in all, it makes for an average SS. Fangraphs has him ranked as the 13th best SS in baseball in 2011. As 2011 was his best year (according to WAR), you can probably expect some regression. But even a modest regression still makes him a solid player. Not great. But solid. Especially in the field - which is where we can really use the upgrade. Certainly a big upgrade over this past year.

I guess Reyes comes down to what is our payroll going to be in 2012 and beyond. Is is $80 million? $90 million? $100 million? If we wanted to sign Reyes - let's say we could get him at $16 million a year - you're talking a payroll at close to $100 million. That's if you: Keep the rotation intactCut McGeheeGo with Green at 3B Go with Gamel at 1BGo with a minimum guy as 5th OF (such as Gindl)Sign Hairston to start against tough lefties at 3B, and to fill in for inevitable injury to ReyesSign a right handed corner IF to play against tough lefties for GamelHITTERS C - Lucroy - .5 C - Maldanado - .5 1B - Gamel - .5 2B - Weeks - 10 SS - Reyes - 16 3B - Green - .5 INF - Hairston - 2.5 INF - Other - 1.0 LF - Braun - 6.0 CF - Morgan - 2.0 CF - Gomez - 2.0 RF - Hart - 9.0 OF (Gindl/Schafer) - .5 $51 million STARTING PITCHERS Marcum - 7.0 Gallardo - 5.5 Greinke - 13.5 Wolf - 9.5 Narveson - .5 $36 million RELIEF PITCHERS Axford - .5 Loe - 2.5 Estrada - .5 Parra - 1.0 Fiers/Kintzler/McClendon/Dillard/Other - .5 Saito/Other - 2.0 Hawkins/Other - 3.0 $10 million TOTAL: $97 million - if anything, I'm probably a little over, but you need a few million for in season moves, injuries, etc. That means around $100 million. You could probably sustain this team beyond 2013 by only keeping one of Greinke/Marcum/Wolf. That means guys like Peralta and Fiers would have to step up after next season (or perhaps Jungmann or Bradley would be ready, but that might be asking a lot). The money you save would have to go to increases in salary of other players. Ultimately, you could cut more in 2012 by trading Wolf (or perhaps Marcum). But that weakens the team quite a bit, and then you're looking at a $100 million payroll in 2013 - meaning someone else essential gets dealt (such as Hart). Unless we can have a sustained payroll of $95-100 million, I don't know if Reyes is a smart move. I'd love him. He'd fit perfectly. I just don't know if he can fit in our salary structure.

Hse2006, just a note - Loe is arbitration eligible for the 2nd time. He will likely make $2.5 million or more in 2012. I believe mlbtraderumors.com had him estimated at around $3 million - but that seems a little high to me.

Melky actually was really good last year. .305 BA, .809 OPS. Can he sustain it? Don't know. But the Royals had the extra guy, so it's a good deal for them. They move Cain into CF and get a solid pitcher into their rotation.

Dude is a beast. I'd love to have him. MLBtraderumors.com said it the word is that it will take 'Chapman' money to sign Cespedes. That means around $30 million. I bet the Marlins don't let him get away. They have the money to burn with the new stadium, not to mention the huge Cuban population in south Florida.

If we offered Narveson, Gamel and Merklinger the Marlins would keep laughing. It would take a package around a Wily Peralta - LoMo might not be their favorite player but top 20 hitting prospects are more valuable than a 5th starter, below average 1B and organizational player/middle reliever. I think you are really undervaluing Narveson. He is only a 5th starter on our team. I see him as a 3/4 pitcher who is relatively cheap for the next 4 years. Also as a lefty he hold a good value for a team the competes with the Phillies(lefty dominant hitters) in their division. All that being said Marlins love cheap and i think that would hold great value to them. I don't know if it's undervaluing Narveson, but under valuing Morrison. They guy has 30+ HR ability and will be under team control for 5 more years. Perhaps the marlins think his attitude isn't worth it and they'll take a guy like Narvy for him. I just think they can get better for Morrison.

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think he feels they are average at best players, and just as importantly, guys the team doesn't really believe in (especially with regard to Gamel).

I'd do Narveson for Morrison in a second. I think the Marlins would laugh at us, however.

John, you value RBI a lot. I love them too. But it's all relative to the situation. Yuni had a lot of chances. Plain and simple. And he hit worse with runners on (.237 ave) and in scoring position (.211 ave.) than without anyone one. But Yuni isn't the worse hitting SS in the world. Not by a long shot. But production, in my book, includes defense. And I watch him and see an absolutely terrible fielder. My assessment on Yuni is that he's a terrible fielder. He is also a bad hitter with a bad average and bad on base percentage. He has average power for a shortstop. His ability to make contact can be a plus, but he's also shown little ability to work counts (which helps the team as it wears down pitchers). And he can't bunt. He stays healthy - something that can't be ignored. Ultimately, I look at the entire player. In this case, someone has used WAR to assess Yuni (and the other guys). Yuni's combined WAR over the past three years is 0.7. For a guy who's played full time, that's simply awful - one of the worse players in the league. Of course, how you look at WAR is another thing. But I look at it as one tool in assessing a player. In the case of Yuni, I use my own eyes to know he's a bad player. And then I can use the data to back that up. The stats (not just 1/2 a season of them) show him to be a terrible fielder (WAR, Zone Rating, Range Factor, Fielding % all concur on this). And the stats show him to be a bad hitter (over the past three years a .658 OPS, .252 AVE, .277 OBP, .381 SLG).

I think it's wrong to pick just one year as a way to determine a player's value, but instead, should look at several recent years to get. From Baseball Reference, WAR for each player in 2009, 2010 and 2011: Yuni: -1.3, 1.3 and 0.7 Barmes: 2.0, 1.3 and 2.9 Barlett: 4.7, 1.7 and 0.1 Wilson: 1.7, 1.3 and 0.9 Based on this, I'd say that Barmes is the best bet. Yes, 2011 is his 'career' year, and i wouldn't plan on him getting a 3.0 WAR. But a 2.0 WAR? Sure, I can see that. And maybe more. I think that makes him the clear winner. Yuni has produced terribly. Bartlett has fallen off the face of the earth (and you'd have to trade for him). Wilson has declined every year, and his history of injuries is unsettling. If we can add Reyes, by all means. Or find a good young shortstop at AAA that can come in. But those are big ifs. Barmes is a solid option at short - especially if you compare him to the other players listed. At about $4 million a year, he's not a great value. But he's fair for the circumstance. Bartlett is an intriguing option, as he's mixed some very good years with some awful seasons. He is scheduled to make $5.5 million in 2012, and has an option for the same in 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. If you traded for him, you'd have to get some serious coin back from SD to consider him any sort of value.

Cory does a fine, fine job. I think that some people just believe his last two years are a mirage or luck or whatever - and want to move him before reverts to 2009 Cory. But Cory has had two straight very good years - enough to show his performance isn't a fluke or luck. He's been essential to the team, and provides the Brewers with needed power. He was tied for 34th in the majors last year in HR, despite missing a month with his injury. He was 29th in OPS. In 2010 he was tied for 14th in HR and was 27th in OPS. Those are pretty good numbers. Who doesn't want a guy who is considered one of the top 15-20% in their field? If you figure there are 8.5 starting position players in all of baseball, that means there are 255 potential full-time positions available each year. Cory's numbers put him in the top 20%, making him a guy we want to hold on to. He doesn't always look pretty in RF, but he does okay. Cory Hart is a good position player with good power. Is he an elite player? No. Does provide elite power? No. But he's good. At age 30, he should provide solid production from RF for the remaining two years of his contract. We don't have anyone like him in the minors who is anywhere near to being ready (unless you move Gamel to RF). He's a goofy looking guy, can be frustrating to watch at times, can be streaky, but he's quite a good player who fills an important role. A platoon of Gindl and Reed Johnson won't come close to producing like Cory does.

Yeah, that was pretty interesting timing. I wish Morosi would have acknowledged Cameron's article.

Morosi said that he talked to Counsell's agent, and Craig wants to play next year: http://msn.foxsports.com/...ll-team-trade-ace-110311

I'll throw out a weird idea for fun - Matt Murton, currently in Japan. He hasn't played regularly in the Bigs since 2007, but set a record for hits in the Japanese league in 2010, and hit over .300 again this year. No clue about his power numbers. Murton, I believe, is a FA. He is right handed and always was considered a good average / low power guy. He has a career average of .286, a OBP of .352, OPS of .788. He mostly played LF (his UZR is very good). If you moved Hart to 1B perhaps Murton would be a good guy to play RF. Maybe you could platoon him with Gamel or Gindl. Murton just turned 30 last month, so he isn't that old. But if you got a guy who could get you an .800 OPS and good fielding from RF for cheap, that wouldn't be a bad deal. Don't know if he could play RF that well. Just throwing out ideas. Having a decent bat around is always helpful.

Blanco has agreed to terms with the Dbacks on a new deal. http://www.mlbtraderumors...lanco-nearing-deal-.html Gets 50k extra this year and a mutual option for next year.

The cubs fans would freak if Ryno was given the Cards reins. However, I think the cards will stay in house, oqendo probably.