Matt Breen

I do know that if Pettite retires and Vasquez let go, the Yanks have nearly $20 million right there freed up. While they don't have other big money coming off the books (i'm not counting Jeter and Rivera who we all assume will resign), getting the $20 million needed for Lee shouldn't be hard. As people say, he reportely wants to play in NY and the Yanks will need him. Still, you never know.

I apologize for the long post - but here is how and why we go after Cliff Lee in the off season: I don't think free agency is the best thing, but it does have its time and place. The Brewers need to fix their starting pitching, and Cliff Lee is the best starting pitcher available this year in Free Agency. We have a lot of money coming off the books, so I'm going to show how we can get Lee and actually fit him in our budget. Here are the moves you make to set up this team: 1. Trade Fielder. Get a package centered around a young talented starter with upside - Madison Bumgarner is an example (I'm not saying he is the only guy, just an example). Get a guy with at least 5 years before free agency. This guy moves into the rotation and slides into the 4th slot. Gamel becomes the 1st baseman. 2. For the fifth starter, grab a cheap innings eating vet - like a Bush or a Looper type - someone to get six innings and - if you're lucky - a 4.50 era. But 5.00 is more likely. You could also try a younger player - maybe even go with Narverson. 3. Sign Ricky to a deal similar to Hart's. If that can't be done, expect 2011 to be his last year, and prepare lawrie to replace him in 2012. 4. Avoid old relievers like the plague. Most relievers are unpredictable as it is, and paying them $3-4 million isn't worth it. I'd rather role the dice on a cheap, young player. Make it a philosophy not to try and buy a bullpen. It rarely works. San Diego does it great. 5. Seriously consider dealing Gomez, as he looks like a 5th OF to me. 6. Sign Cliff Lee. I imagine this will take upwards of $120 million and six years. That's a huge commitment. Probably stupid for any team. Maybe crippling - but a rotation with Lee, Gallardo, Wolf, a young stud starter and a innings eating vet - along with an above average offense and solid bullpen - makes us a contender for several years. And just as important, the roster is manageable, payroll wise. One way to manage payroll is to pay Lee more early in the contract - thus increasing the value - something we probably need to do to really make the offer attractive. But by paying more up front now we gain flexibility later. Not much, but a little. Can we afford Lee at $20 million a year? Here's roster and salaries for the next three years (I've rounded numbers to the nearest $500,000 for easy addition): 2011 C - Lucroy - .5 C - Kottara - .5 1B - Gamel - .5 2B - Weeks - 7.5 SS - Escobar - .5 3B - McGehee - .5 LF - Braun - 4.0 CF - Cain - .5 RF - Hart - 7.5 OF - Dickerson - .5 OF - Sign someone - 1.0 INF - Counsel (or someone like him) - 1.0 INF - Inglett - 1.0 SP - Lee - 25.0 SP - Gallardo - 3.5 SP - Wolf - 10.0 SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5 SP - Looper / Bush like innings eater guy - 2.0 RP - Axford - .5 RP - Braddock - .5 RP - Hawkins - 4.0 RP - Loe - 1.0 (I don't know if he's arby, so I gave him this number) RP - Coffey - 2.0 RP - Villanueva - 1.0 RP - Narveson - .5 RP - Parra - 1.0 Other potential pitchers are Rogers and Jeffress. Coffey, Villanueva and Parra are all contenders to be non-tendered, but each is in there for now. Total: $77 million - even with all the relievers. Add in around $5 million in buyouts (suppan, hall, hoffman, Davis). Total is around $82 million. This gives flexibility to add a little salary during the year if we are in the race and we have needs. 2012 C - Lucroy - .5 C - Kottara - .5 1B - Gamel - .5 2B - Weeks - 8.5 SS - Escobar - .5 3B - McGehee - 2.5 LF - Braun - 6.0 CF - Cain - .5 RF - Hart - 8.5 OF - Dickerson - .5 OF - Slot in a guy - 1.0 INF - Counsel (or someone like him) - 1.0 INF - Inglett (or someone like him) - 1.0 SP - Lee - 23.0 SP - Gallardo - 5.5 SP - Wolf - 10.0 SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5 SP - Looper / Bush like guy - 2.0 RP - Axford - .5 RP - Braddock - .5 RP - Loe - 2.0 RP - Narveson - .5 RP - Rogers - .5 RP - Jeffress - .5 RP - One or two other guys - 2.0 Total: $79 million. Again, we have space to add salary if needed during the year. Also, if Weeks isn't resigned, then Lawrie is at 2B, and you save $8 million. If Weeks is still resigned, Lawrie would need a position - perhaps deal someone, or if someone falters or injured (which is bound to happen), move things accordingly. 2013 C - Lucroy - 2.5 C - Cheap catcher - 1.0 1B - Gamel - 2.5 2B - Weeks - 9.5 SS - Escobar - 2.5 3B - McGehee - 5.0 LF - Braun - 8.0 CF - Cain - .5 RF - Hart - 9.5 OF - Back up guy - 1.0 OF - Slot in a guy - 1.0 INF - Get a guy - 1.0 INF - Get a guy - 1.0 SP - Lee - 21.0 SP - Gallardo - 8.0 SP - Replace with home grown player (cross fingers!) SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5 (could be higher if reached arbitration) SP - Looper / Bush like guy - 2.0 RP - Axford - 2.5 RP - Braddock - .5 RP - Rogers - .5 RP - Jeffress - .5 RP - At this point, knowing who's a reliever and not is hard - but budget $5 million for the rest Total: $85.5 million. This may be a tad high, but better high than low. We probably would still have a little wiggle room to add salary during the season. Not much, but a little. Again, Lawrie should be in here, but you probably need to play things by ear and see how things turn out with injuries, FA, etc. to determine his future position. I realize I'm making lots of guesses - salaries, whether guys like Rogers and Jeffress end up as starters or relievers - not to mention what will we really get for Fielder - and the biggest question, would Cliff Lee ever consider even signing here. Beyond 2013 it's tough to do the numbers. Weeks and Hart come off the book, so you need replacements. Lee goes down by $2 million each year ($19 million in 2014, $17 in 2015, $15 in 2016) - which means he gets $120/six years - but with higher payments to start. Again, if that's enough to sign him, i don't know. With regard to Lee, I just think the team needs a second top of the rotation guy to really help carry the club. I'm tired of us spending $10 million on mediocre starters. We don't have any stud starters coming up for a few years, so FA is the route we need to take. Of course, we could try and trade for a stud starting pitcher and try and sign him to a big contract - that's possible. But we'd have to give up something good for him - such as Lawrie. And that's if a team is willing to deal a great starter. Lee won't cost prospects or players (and a 2nd round pick), and he pitches lots of innings, goes deep into games, and has three years of ace-like play in a row - he's not a fluke. He's 32, so he's at the age where injury becomes more prevalent, so it's a massive risk. But the club would be set up for the next 3-4 years, and wouldn't need to make any big FA signings. In reality, it's the contract we all wish CC would have taken two years ago - six years and $120 million. Such a move would take us out of the free agent market for several years - which is okay. We can use it for short term needs and role players.

Corey's contract also coincided with him hurting his hand. I don't know if it's still bothering him, but it may be part of what's happening.

Rob Picciolo was awful. Played mostly for Oakland, but a little in Milwaukee. he only had 1720 ABs with a 56 ops+ Picciolo had only 25 walks in his career. Wow.

Gamel at 1B. It's a risk, but you need pitching, and with Fielder only here one year away from free agency - and unlikely to resign - he's the trade bait.

Bobby Valintine. The guy is arrogant and opinionated. But he is also innovative, and a great in game strategist. Let's shake the team up. I think it would be great. Valintine would love to prove his genius to the world, and would be supremely motivated. Roll the dice!

I wonder if dealing Manny would best for the team. Manny has the talent, but is not putting it together in Milwaukee. Perhaps a change of scenery would help him. My thought would be to find a similar pitcher - a guy not living up to his potential, etc. - and swap them. Sort of how Morrow was acquired by Toronto. With that in mind, I was wondering what younger arms - struggling but with potential - are out there that we could swap for Manny. Essentially exchange our headcase for someone else's and hope the new environment let's them realize their potential. Thanks.

Gamel is better defensively at 3B than McGehee, as is every other 3B. X - is McGehee really that bad defensively? Thanks.

kramnoj is correct on this one. At this time, he's not either a A or B free agent. Here's info on the latest rankings. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/elias-rankings-update-1.html

What is Bush worth on the open market? I'll offer up Jon Garland and Doug Davis - who each just got over $5 million on a one year deal. Another comparable is Braden Looper - and he didn't sign. I don't think anyone was offering him much, but I don't recall if there was anything firm offered to him. Jarrad Washburn might even work as a comparable (I believe he was offered a 1-year $5 million contract by the Twins). Bush is younger than most of these guys by 3-4 years, but he's pitched worse than all of them. I'd say that Garland is the best comparable - they are the same age - and Garland has better numbers and has been more durable and more consistent than Bush. So if Garland can only get $5.3 million this year, my guess is that Bush will be lucky to get a $3-4 million offer. Maybe someone will see something differently, but Bush's numbers, coupled with pay trends of similar players, simply don't add up to more than that. The Crew should non-tender Bush, and unless he's taking a reasonable one or two year deal, cut ties.

Weeks isn't leading off today. Here's the lineup: RF Alcides Escobar SS Craig Counsell 2B Rickie Weeks 1B Prince Fielder 3B Casey McGehee CF Lorenzo Cain LF Joe Inglett C Jonathan Lucroy LHP Chris Narveson While the line up is makeshift due to injuries, it might be a vision of things to come, with Ricke Dropping in the line up.

Bushie should move on. San Diego would be perfect. Take a one year deal. Assuming they'd want him. His home run tendencies would be muted at a place like Petco, meaning he'd look better than he was, and he could turn that into a bigger deal. In the past, I looked at Bush's peripherals - low walks, decent whip, and then note the long balls as his Achilles heel. Now his peripherals are looking weaker and weaker. Unless it's cheap - $3 million or so - we can probably survive without him. I'd rather throw the dice on a AAAA starter who's just looking for a chance or a Looper type vet who would work for $2 million than over pay Dave. I happen to like Bush a lot, but I just don't see him helping us much in the future.

Here's a wacky thought: Move Hart to 1B - I'll assume he'd be better than fielder than Fielder (just an assumption). His big frame would make a good target. Have Dickerson play RF vs righties and get a cheap, decent fielding RF who struggles against righties to platoon with him. Aim for a league average platoon system with better defense than Hart ever will provide. Cain in CF. Trade Fielder and Gamel for young pitching (and please, Parra too - let's swap headcases with someone - the change of scenery might help them all). Just an idea. We need several starters next year, and Gamel might bring someone decent.

Well, not much downside on this. Dickerson looks like a serviceable player. A starter? Perhaps, but maybe more of a platoon player, all around backup. And cheap and controllable for a few years. If Cain gets hurt, he's an option. Who knows about Gomez with his concussion (and ability to get on base). If Prince gets dealt and Gamel fails at 1B, you could move Hart to 1B and platoon Dickerson in RF. If he ends up sucking, well, then you just let him go. The world won't end - it's not like Edmunds was a long term option for us as a backup OF. He did a nice job for us when healthy. But this team likely isn't winning anything this year. Get someone that might have some value to us in teh future.

We are a pretty weak team defensively - Hart, Braun, McGehee are all below average. Escobar is decent, but has a lot of obvious potential. Weeks has turned himself into an average defensive player. Fielder has worked hard to get better, but he's at best, average. I would think Gamel would be an upgrade. His problems defensively usually came on throwing - and moving to 1B would alleviate that issue. Hart and Braun aren't any great shakes in the corner OF spots. The more time they spend out there, hopefully, the better they get. Braun at 1B might be a good idea - as someone mentioned. But then you have no LF. And if Braun and Hart can produce - we'll take their weak D. McGehee isn't horrible - he just isn't athletic enough to be anything more than average. I'd like to see him lose a little weight, get a little more mobility. He might lose some power, but if he got a little quicker, he might improve his average and his defense.

I have my issues with Hart, but to be honest, the Brewers don't have anyone to replace him, unless they move Gamel or Lawrie there. I hope Hart's improvement is real. Even if he regresses a little, it's not a bad deal. I hope it sends some messages to the fans and the team that we are serious about keeping decent players. As I said before, I hope we can sign Weeks. After that, it's identifying pitchers and making a few trades to try and fill rotation holes.

Honestly, I didn't see this one coming. As folks have said, I think the plan will be to trade Prince for young pitching, move Lawrie to 3B, with a target for 2012, and give Gamel a shot at 1B. I'd go after Weeks now for an extension. Nice that Hart could amicably come to terms with the Crew.

Only thing I'd change is keep Hart, put Lawrie at 3b, and trade McGehee.PrinceEatMeat, i think you hit it on the head after today's signing of Hart ot an extension. I'm not totally sold on McGehee long term, so Lawrie at 3B makes sense. McGehee's looks to be a solid hitter, mediocre defender. You can definitely do worse. But let him hold the fort for another year, then you can use as trade bait if he's worth anything.

I'm beginning to feel that the Brewers should admit they have a flawed team that needs revamping. We don't have the money to buy pitching, so we have to develop it or trade for it. So here is what you do following this off season: 1. Trade Prince for as much good young pitching as possible. You move Gamel to 1B and hope his bat matures that he can play there. I think he would be more than adequate to play the position. Gamel should be ready in 2011 to prove if he's a future on this team. 2. Keep Hart. You don't have any one to play RF next year. Keep him to provide offense. If the team is out of contention in July, then trade him at the deadline (assuming he has value). Now, if you have a replacement for Hart this off season, sure, trade him now. But I don't think anyone is in our system that is going to take his place. 3. Move Brett Lawrie to RF if you think he can play the position. He has the speed and his bat should play there fine. Move him to AAA and he can take over for Hart in 2012. 4. Sign Rickie Weeks to an extension if he's willing to. Rickie has had his injuries, and he's pretty inconsistent in the field, but the guy is a beast when he plays and I think his best days are right ahead of him. 5. Avoid all the overpaid veteran relievers like Hawkins and so forth. Relievers are pretty inconsistent (not all of them, but many of them). I'd rather get young arms and pay them peanuts and live with their inconsistency than pay them several million dollars to live with it. This means probably letting Coffey go, and going with a bullpen of Axford, Loe, Braddock, Narveson (the guy is a loogy waiting to happen - make it happen now), Hawkins, maybe Rogers. If you can get Coffey and Riske at reasonable rates, great, but otherwise, forget it. 6. For starting pitching your stuck with Wolf as one guy to go with Gallardo. After that, it's Capuano getting a chance, and perhaps Bush if he comes back on a reasonable one year deal - but I doubt he'd do that. To fill the other slots I'd rather try some cheap AAA guys looking for a chance than recycle the Loopers and Suppans of the world. Of course, if a guy like Looper will play for cheap, great, but I'd rather take a flyer on someone with a future if possible. 7. Trade Manny Parra for someone else's head case. Find another pitcher stuck in developmental hell and swap them - the change of scenery might be what both they need. 8. Target any decent trade chips - Fielder and Parra - to bring back young pitching. 9. Make Lorenzo Cain the center fielder. Gomez is what he is - a great CF but a hack at the plate. It's unlikely he's going to develop any sense of discipline to make his bat playable. I know these are rather vague at spots, but it's a general philosophy of shucking our old and expensive and giving the young guys the chance to shine. I think the way to win in this league is with pitching - and we are sorely lacking in that area - especially in the starting category. We go cheap next year. If, for some reason, the team gels and in contention, you have plenty of room to add payroll if needed. If the team loses, which it likely would, you keep shedding payroll, then set up your team to succeed in 2012: C - Lucroy 1B - Gamel 2B - Weeks SS - Escobar 3B - McGehee LF - Braun CF - Cain RF - Lawrie SP - Gallardo, Wolf (let's hope we trade for some decent players!) RP - Axford, Loe, Braddock, Rogers, Jeffries, Narveson, others.

Nice move by Jack Z to salvage something good out of this. He has a potential excellent slugger in Smoak. I don't think seattle needs quantity, but quality, and Smoak could be that. He's no sure thing - but no young player is.

He's lefthanded and throws pretty hard, so that means about 10-15 more chances.

josh, i love the blog. really do. keep it up. the stories of what you do - the ups, downs, heartbreaks, etc. - are great. you don't read that kind of stuff. please keep it up.

The photo on the Journal Sentinel website of McGehee made him look like he's put on a bit of weight. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/85292517.html Casey's never been the sveltest guy in the world, but he's looking heavier. I know he had surgery on the knee last fall, so maybe he hasn't had the chance to stay in shape. Anyone seen him in person? How's he looking? Moving well? Anything?

The one spot I could see the brewers dealing is letting Hart go in a trade if they don't think he'll ever learn to hit breaking pitches. What could you get, I don't know, but you could sign someone like Randy Winn - who'd would be a far better fielder than Hart, switch hit, and would come at 1/2 the price. Or even try Gerut in a platoon. If they feel Hart can rebound to an .800+ OPS player, then by all means, keep him. But a .750ish OPS guy with questionable defense isn't worth it.

if you can get any of them shorter term - 1-2 years - and not too much - i'm good with it. None of them excite me - I see them as 4.5 era type guys - #4 starter at best. I guess I like Garland the best - more consistently mediocre than the others, younger. Again, none of them thrill me at a high cost.