Matt Breen

I love CC, but if you had to put down 7 years and $140 million, it's tough to pass on a guy who plays everyday and hits like Tex. CC was a monster for us, but sinking that kind of loot into any player is dangerous, but especially for a pitcher. Of course, there's the draft pick you'd lose for signing a FA from another team, but it's still hard to give that kind of money to a pitcher.

What do folks think of Juan Cruz? Yes, he costs a first round pick, but I'd rather take a flyer on him at $6 million/year for three years than $10-12 on Fuentes. Cruz's walks scare me a bit, but he can really bring some smoke.

I expect few changes from the Crew in 2009 - Kendall, Fielder, Weeks, hardy, Braun, Cameron and Hart in the field. 3B is the one slot up in the air. Hall and Branyon perhaps. There's really no one on the market to fill this slot. Bring back Rivera, Kapler, maybe Counsel. Nothing earth shattering. Rotation: Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, Bush and McClung. Maybe get back Capuano at some point (assuming we can resign him) Relievers: Torres, Shouse (assuming we can resign), Stetter, Villanueva, Riske - and a mixture of Coffey, DeFelice, Dillard, maybe a minor league FA or two. That all said, we're talking near to $80 million. Not a ton available for spending. Maybe $10-15 million at the most if $90 million is our limit. The rotation we have has little depth - a guy like Byrd would maybe be attractive to Melvin for $3 million or so. There's questions with McClung, Parra and Gallardo, and an innings eater is someone I always thought the Crew would go after to fall back on should anyone falter - or there be an injury. As for Fuentes, at about $10/year he'd fit in the budget for now. I think it's spending too much on a guy who throws 70 innings, but Melvin has shown he's willing to do that with Cordero and Gagne. I guess I'd rather spend the money on an every day play (orlando hudson?). Still, considering how bad our bullpen was, it's tempting to go after a guy like this. (I do think someone will give him crazy money - $13 million or something). I think the team's hitters can do better - and will thus be retained (for the most part). Losing CC and Sheets is brutal, but the team will bank on Gallardo returning, plus improvements from Parra, McClung and Bush.

Ennder, I think you nailed it. This team was expected to win 85-90 games last year. The offense underperformed - hart, fielder, hall, weeks - even braun had weaker stats from 2006. only Hardy improved - and not by tons. Let these guys - young guys entering their prime - go at it again. Let Cameron have a full year - i'll take a quality defensive CF who hits .240 and 30 HR any day of the week - even for $10 million - and especially when the options are weak. That leaves pitching. Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung - it's not sexy. It won't be as good as 2008. But Bush showed great strides after a horrible start, Gallardo will be back, and Parra will hopefully mature. Even mcclung showed some promise. It's not perfect, by any means, but assuming no CC or sheets, I can live with it, with the gamble that the offense rebounds. I think that's a good gamble - especially with Cameron in CF. I'd rather the team sign some key role players for good money - perhaps take a flyer on a pitcher coming back from injury - than spend a ton on mediocre FAs (or way overspend on a good ones).

regular mlbtraderumors.com Journal Sentinal blog brewerfan.net semi regular hardball times minorleagueball.com Occassional Bernie's Crew

Valentine has intrigued me over the past few years as I read some articles about him (usually when openings became available). I don't remember watching him manage much - didn't watch as many live games as I do now. But from readying, I really got the sense the guy was innovative, superior in-game manager - but also came across as a kind of cocky and self promoting (and thus annoying to some people). I found one article - favorable to valentine - at SI - http://sportsillustrated....yman.valentine/index.html - nothing big, but interesting. Took the mets to the WS in 2000. Won in both Texas and NY, although never 'great'. It seemed he usually managed to do more with less - but maybe that's just me looking back with limited recall. Don't know if he'd be too 'east coast' for Milwaukee. Wouldn't mind if anyone posted any other articles/thoughts about him.

From what I've read on Kouzmanoff is that he's a mediocre third baseman - at best. From watching him, which is limited to about 6-7 games - he's been okay. Made some nice plays, but he didn't show much range to me and had a trouble getting the ball out of the glove on occassion. Again, that's limited games.

The 2 extra victories was based - if I'm correct - on CC pitching more toward his recent numbers - an era from 3.00-3.50 - and not on coming in and throwing a 1.65 ERA ball for the rest of the year. While many predicted he'd do better (hitters unfamilar with him, no DH, etc.), no one expected him to do what he did. His performance (I assume) wound up giving us more than the two predicted extra victories. Also, and the stat folks can correct me, I believe the two extra victories is based upon the guy he is replacing - which means if CC had shown up, had a 3.00ish ERA instead of 1.65, he helps the team gets two more victories than if we'd not made the deal and instead started Seth McClung for the remainder of the year. Again, not sure if this is correct, but that's my thought.

Atkins, as someone pointed out, benefits extremely from Coors. This year, .903 OPS at home, .661 OPS on the road. From 2005-2007, it's not as bad - .790 vs .946 - but still extreme. I would be very wary of him. As for Glaus - he got his big contract after hitting from 30 to 47 HR for about five years running, so trying to suggest his contract will be similar to Hardy's because they have similar stats this year just doesn't work. In all fairness, however, with the way salaries have increased since Glaus signed his deal, if Hardy keeps playing like he is, he'll get at $10+ million a year deal little difficulty. Finally, what the heck were the Rangers thinking when they gave that $16 million/year deal to Young? It's got to be one of the worst contracts of the decade. Not quite Zitoesque, but really foolish.

This is exactly right - and not just for free agents - but your own players. Long term deals are risky - big money that you can't get out of. Simply look at the Brewers signings (FA and internal) over the past few years, and it's not a resounding success: Ryan Braun (signed after less than a year, but so far, so good) Bill Hall - bet we'd like his $6.8 million he's due next year for something else Dave Riske - dud, so far, due to injury Dave Kendall - been decent so far - only a two year deal, so not a lot of risk Damien Miller - midling results Wes Helms - not big bucks, but enough to get booed out of town Jeff Suppan - lot of money for a back end of the rotation. Iffy at the time, looking like a bad move now as we owe $25 million over next two years Mike Cameron - solid year one for $5 million. We'll see if they pick up for more. Brady Clark - nothing much in return but some grit and Elmer Dessens On the whole, not great. Best results seem to be sticking to shorter deals - but even then, those are hit and miss. Best thing is to focus on the draft, and sign role players as needed, but try and avoid big signings.

The brewers do not need a major overhaul. In the NL, they finished 7th in runs scored (and when the chips are down, it's not about how you score runs, it's how many you score). Hart, Fielder, Hardy, Braun, Weeks are all heading into their prime years, and all of them (save for Hardy), have put up better numbers. All of them can improve. And if Cameron is around for a full season, that will help things. 3B is the main issue, but if you're stuck with a Branyon/Hall platoon, so be it. Rickie, we all hope, improves, but maybe what he is is simply what he showed throughout his career: a .245 hitter who will hit 15 HR, steal 25 bases and get on at a .350 clip. Even with his bad defense, there are worse things we could have. Personally, I'd like a good, consistent LH bat at 3B, but I don't see one of those out there without paying a ton (or someone like Brian Roberts at 2B - who'd be perfect for the team - but again, at what cost in prospects/players, and then he's only signed for one year). Someone suggested Beltre at 3B - but he's a righty (which is okay, just not ideal), and we'd have to trade something of value to get him. I think we get frustrated because it's easy to see lack of execution in certain situations for the Crew. And when it costs us, we point out those flaws, without recognizing what good qualities this team has as hitters (and how those qualities have won us games). Ultimately, is it frustrating when we have a lead off double followed by two straight strikeouts? Sure it is. In fact, it's maddening. But it's also nice to to hit 200+ HR. Not being a good 'small ball' team will hurt us at times, especially when we need that one run. Buut often it's a moot point when you've jacked a HR or two and put the team in the lead already. If guys stay healthy, go into the season a bit more relaxed, they have potential to surpass 200 HR (they had 198 in 2008). Here's rundown of how the main guys could produce in 2009: Kendal/Rivera - 5 HR Prince: 40 Weeks: 15 Hardy: 25 Branyon: 20 Hall: 10 Braun: 40 Cameron: 25 Hart: 25 That's 205 from the main guys (and I think we could easily be better). Reserves would not doubt add a few more. This team (which consists of most of the same main players) hit 231 HR and scored 51 extra runs in 2007 . The potential is there to achieve those same numbers again - or at least get close to it. I know it's not all about HRs, but most of these guys - Rickie, Prince, Cameron, Hall, Braun, Hart - can not only hit HRs, but they can hit for higher average and get on base at a higher percentage. So, I don't think we need to freak out. If we can find a 3B, great. If not, go with what we have. The offense will be better, and that would, hopefully, offset the expected drop in pitching (assuming sheets and CC leave). Pitching might not be that bad, if Gallardo steps up, and Parra, Bush and McClung show improvement as they have this year. Again, nothing great, but perhaps not that horrible. Defense will no doubt be shaky in some spots, but it is what it is. And not freaking out would allow us to make an in season move if needed - like with Sabathia. If we have payroll flexibility, perhaps you make a deal mid-season if there's an injury, or the rotation really needs help, or someone is simply regressing. Plus, we allow guys like Escobar and Gamel to mature in AAA - and they can provide a boost if someone goes down or we need a replacement. All in all, the hitters are certainly flawed. We don't get on base enough is the crux of things, but we can offset that with tremendous power. Our key players are entering the primes of their careers, and can improve in OBP as well as their power. That be my thoughts.

If the Pads are willing to deal Peavy, they are in full rebuilding mode (as they should be, in my opinion). If that's the case, they'll want top notch prospects, or guys with, at the most, a year or two of big league experience. If LaPorte was worth 3 months of Sabathia, what's four years of Peavy worth (I think he has 4 years on his deal)? Gamel and Escobar are the starting point for Peavy if I'm the Padres. I'd love Peavy, but the price would be brutal. Don't know if it would be worth it in the long run.

Here's an article with quotes from Towers, the Pads GM: http://www3.signonsandieg...y-towers-contract/?padres Basic guts of the article: So they aren't shopping him - but that they're willing to listen to 'find out his value' indicates they are hedging their bets should something come along. (offset quote --1992)

One of beat writers noted this, and also pointed out the lefthanded power of Philly (Ryan Howard in particular - who has a .756 OPS vs lefties as opposed to a .947 OPS vs righties). Of course that opens up opportunities to the righties - like Burrell and Werth. Manny has given up a sub 700 OPS to lefties - but almost an .800 OPS to righties. Not sure I'd do it, but it's an option.

Cory looks absolutely terrible right now. His swings are weak. He's guessing at everything. His inability to lay off low outside pitches in particular has only gotten worse. If Kapler was healthy, I suspect he would have been in RF quite a few times over the past couple of weeks. Right now, however, there's little to turn to. Let's hope he gets his crap together for the playoffs.

I got to go to today's game with my 9 year old son. My dad took me to the last world series game in 1982 - game five - when I was 18. Still a great memory. My boy and I had a wonderful time, never stopped yelling, never stopped loving it. It's 10:20 and my son is still wired (so am I - which is why I'm here). I wish everyone could have been there. The atmosphere was electric. It was even better when all the cubby fans took off after Braun's HR. It was so great seeing so many people just plain, freaking happy. Go crew.

I was at the last brewer home playoff game - 1982 world series - with my father. Today I got to be there, this time with my 9 year old son (thanks to friends who gave me tickets) and watch the crew return to the playoffs. Magnificent feeling. Enjoy everyone. PS - our friends who gave us the tickets are huge cub fans - they said it was such an important game to us, and not a big deal to them, that they wanted us to experience it.

I was at the last brewer home playoff game - 1982 world series - with my father. Today I got to be there, this time with my 9 year old son (thanks to friends who gave me tickets) and watch the crew return to the playoffs. Magnificent feeling. Enjoy everyone. PS - our friends who gave us the tickets are huge cub fans - they said it was such an important game to us, and not a big deal to them, that they wanted us to experience it.

Here's my wacky idea: 1. Let Gamel and Escobar go to AAA for 2009. Give them a chance to prove it at higher competion. Injuries/ineffectiveness may mean they come earlier, but let them develop. 2. Trade Prince and Hart to SF for Cain, Winn and Madison Bumgarner. San Fran's top HR hitter has 13. They need power desperately. This gives it to them. We get a top notch pitching prospect, a good young starter and a solid, switch hitting RF. I'd say we could do lincecom and Winn for Hart and Fielder, but I doubt SF is willing to give up a cy young type guy. Winn, if I'm correct, still plays a good RF - I think equal to Hart - and is signed for only one year. I would use Winn as leadoff hitter. Gamel - or a guy like Gillespie - would be long term answer in RF. (the giants might like Bill Hall too - for he could go to SS - and I think it would help Hall immensely if he could play there full time - like he did most of 2006). We could do Prince for Cain and bumgarner - which might work. To be honest, I'm not sure of Prince's value. 3. Sign Orlando Hudson to a 4-year, $36 million deal. Maybe that's too much or too little. I'm not sure what the market will be for 2B. Also, with the injury, I don't know if that affects him. But if he's okay, we get an .800 OPS, switch hitting, gold glove calibar 2B. The deal takes him until he's 34, so I expect some decline, but it's a risk we'll take. We lose our 1st round pick for this. 4. Move Rickie Weeks to 1B. Yes, 1B. He's lost at 2B and it's affecting his bat - which I think can still be good. I would think Rickie could play 1B without much problem. We could, potentially move him to CF - but as Bill Hall showed - it's no picnic - and I'd want Rickie to focus on his bat. Gamel is moved to 1B/OF in the minors, and is brought up if Rickie falters. 5. Russell Branyon is the 3B against righties - meaning 75% of the time. Hall - assuming he's still here - is the super sub at SS/2B and starter at 3B against lefties. If hall is dealt, you need a right handed bat to play against lefties. This combo can mash 30-40 HR if they avoid injuries. Maybe they only hit .230 - but that's life. You improve defense quite a bit by giving Braun another year to settle in in LF, having Cameron for a full year, replacing Fielder with Weeks at 1B, and replacing Weeks at 2B with Hudson. 3B would probably be a wash, as would RF. While we lose lots of power, we gain two very good switch hitters and use Branyon full time against righties - meaning three good lefties in the lineup - instead of Prince and guys like Counsel. Count on Cameron for a full year, some growth from Weeks, and a more consistent lineup - I think they'd be okay. Roster looks something like this (money is a rough estimate - perhaps I'm way off on some of these guesses) - I resigned Shouse, Kapler, Branyon. There's some open slots (back up IF, relief pitcher), that would be filled by a veteran signing or a minor leaguer. Some slots, like Gwynn's, could be swapped if we had someone better and rearranged some money to afford them. I also resigned capuano for $1.5 million - i don't know if this would work for him - I don't think he'll be ready to go until early in the year, and the team will need to be careful - but he might be a good 2nd half starter to have ready as we get him up to speed: C - Kendall - $4.5 C - Rivera - $0.5 1B - Weeks - $2.0 2B - Hudson $9.0 SS - Hardy $5.0 3B - Branyon $1.0 LF - Braun $0.8 CF - Cameron $10 RF - Winn $8.5 OF - Kapler $2.0 IF - Hall - $6.8 IF - minor league or vet - $1 OF - Gwynn $0.4 SP - Cain $3.0 Sp - Bush $5.0 SP Suppan $12.5 SP Gallardo $0.5 SP - Parra $0.5 SP/RP - McClung $1.5 RP - Riske $4.0 RP - Torres $3.8 RP - Shouse $2.5 RP - Villanueva $ 0.5 RP - Stetter $ 0.4 RP - Rookie $0.4 SP/RP - Capuano $1.5 RP - minor leaguer or vet -1.0 Approximately $88 million in salary McClung takes over in the rotation if there are any injuries. My goal was to improve the defense quite a bit, and add some on base percentage, without losing too much power, and all the while add a very good starting pitcher in Cain. While branyon is no Fielder, he does have a presence, and I think he could be effective if left alone for a season. Weeks is a gamble - but if he doens't have to worry about his defense, I think he could blossom into a 25 HR guy. Again, a risk, but what the heck. Winn and Hudson add some switch hitters to the club. A team of Winn, Cameron, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, Hudson would be pretty fast. Perhaps we lose too much power here, but i like the improved defense and higher on base percentages. And the rotion would be Cain, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan. Not too bad. Bullpen is scary, I admit. But I think the best way to improve it is to find good young arms and give them a chance in the pen - free agency with relievers is a big gamble. This team allows our top hitters - Brantly, Gamel, Escobar, Gillespie, Salome - to go to AAA in 2009 and continue to develop. Winn and Hall come off the books after next year, and we could either deal Hardy if Escobar is ready - or move him (if he's willing) to 3B. Gamel goes to RF - or 1B if the Weeks experiment goes poorly. Just an idea. I hate dealing a 50 HR potential 1B - but I have to admit that I worry about prince. His weight - and I think he's gained quite a bit - is looking cumbersome on him. His defense is bad. He's a liability on the basepaths. I worry he's not going to age well. Also, I just don't know if he wants to be here - and if that's the case, let's get a top flight arm for him. I hate selling low on him, so it almost makes me want to just keep him to see if he does better. As for Hart - he has potential to get better - the 40+ doubles and 20+ HRs are proof. He's also shown he hits both lefties and righties pretty well. However, his lack of growth getting on base is a bit troublesome (I say this about Braun too), and so I used him to get a switch hitter and a prime prospect in the deal. I could easily keep him and get rid of Winn, but something tells me the time is good to deal hart if we intend to - not to mention we have some guys waiting in the minors who should be able to replace him in a couple of years. My wacky idea is done.

Cameron hit 30 in 2004 while with the mets. Only time. He has, on the whole, played in pitchers parks (safeco, shea, petco). his power this year was not a surprise to many because this is probably the best park he's had to hit in for a long time.

I've been going to games for 33 years and today's was the worst performance that I can recall. Wow, just in the crapper today. Oh well, it happens. Let's hope they shake it off. I was amused to see a guy in a Mench shirt. My first thought was 'who ever thought buying a Mench shirt was a good idea'. Good things: It was a beautiful day. Fans around us were great. Spent the day with my father, who's health isn't great, so there's nothing wrong with just hanging at Miller Park with him. Might never get the chance to do it again. We both enjoyed the atmosphere, which is always special. I did leave as the ninth got underway, so I missed Mat's first hit. Urg.

Halladay is one of the top five pitchers in the game this year - 4th in ERA, 1st in Innings pitched, 5th in Ks, tied for 3rd in wins. He's a certified #1 starter in this game - and there are few of these. You don't trade one of the top pitchers in the game for an - at best - #4 starter (and an expensive one at that) - and a good, but not great outfielder, even if you get the guy for three years (compared to 2 for halladay). If anything, Suppan is a liability in this deal at his salary. You're better taking the $25 million you'd pay Suppan and spend it on a better player than trading for him. I suppose anything is possible, but it would be a foolish (and I think, massively unrealistic) deal for the Jays.

But the club has so many righties that don't hit for AVE or OBP against righties - so my point of this thread is exactly yours - we don't have a good OBP or AVE or OPS when playing against righties. And considering 3/4 of ABs come against righties, the team is bound to struggle against righthanders. Primary culprits are Weeks, Hall, Counsell and Kendall. Weeks and Hall are prime platoon candidates - Kendall and Counsel just can't hit against either pitchers, so there's nothing we can do but live with their production or replace them. Bottom line is that this club hits lefties really well. Right handed pitchers they are very mediocre. Here's a comparison. VS RIGHTIES AVE: .249 OBP: .318 SLG: .429 OPS: .747 VS LEFTIES AVE: .269 OBP: .346 SLG: .467 OPS: .813

Since 2001, which sheets joined the crew, and now, the team has won 45% of it's games. Sheets has won 50.9% of his games. The teams has had two winning records (that includes this season). Sheets has won on a lot of bad teams. The team has rarely had lots of 'big' games for him to win (or lose). Is sheets the greatest pitcher in the world? Hardly. His injuries over the past few years have been irksome. Some people say he's looked fat and out of shape. Perhaps his lack of intensity makes it looks like he doesn't care. Personally, I think a long term deal at $17-18 million is ill-advised. But the guy's a super pitcher. That he's had a stretch of average games is not happiness and lollipops. But it happens. Over the course of the full season, he'll likely be great.

My prediction is that the club will get rid of Weeks in a the old 'change of scenery' move. Probably good for everyone. Instead, they'll grab a gritty veteran type (Mark Grudzielanek anyone? Aaron Miles, come on down!) to man 2B for a reasonable sum. They'll go after a guy with solid glove and average stick to keep him cheap (and not a lot of years). While I'd love Orlando Hudson or Brian Roberts, they will be too much money (Hudson will get $10-12 million) or too expensive to acquire (Roberts would cost a guy like Escobar, which won't happen - plus he's a FA after 2009 and will make too much to hang around). As for JJ - he probably won't want to switch to 2B - he'd make more money as a SS - and if he moves to 2B, he's hurting his career. Of course, maybe we just tell him he's moving, but that's not a great situation. Perhaps a switch to 3B would be better, but I doubt if it's as easy as it seems. I think the club will keep the core guys together (kendall, fielder, Hardy, Braun, Cameron, Hart), then fill in 2B with a more reliable player. 3B is another story - as we still lack a lefthanded stick. I say go with the Muscle, but that's just me. I don't know if they are willing to give Hall another chance. Gamel and Escobar will only come up if injuries. I think they'll let them acclimate to the better pitching at a slow pace, not start arby clocks until necessary. We could, of course, look to deal Hardy. Best case would be he would be willing to go to 2B or 3B to make room for Escobar - whether in 2009 or 2010. I just don't know if the club is going to stick with the inconsistency of Rickie for another year - both at the plate and with the glove. If we elect to keep Rickie another year, I'm fine with it. I think there's still value there - as someone else pointed out, I wish the club would move him around in the lineup. I think leading off isn't his game. I always felt he coudl be a run producer type - 25+ HR. He seems constrained as the lead off guy - like he's trying to be something he's not.