Matt Breen

Deal is reportedly almost done: From www.mlbtraderumors.com/ Bucco Blog is reporting tonight that the oft rumored three-team trade between the Yankees, Braves, and Pirates is all but complete. Mike Gonzalez is taking a requested physical for the Yankees today and, if he passes, it looks like he will be a Yankee for Christmas. The Pirates will be getting Adam LaRoche and the Braves will get Melky Cabrera and at least one unidentified Pirate who is thought to be either Nate McLouth or Jose Castillo. There are a couple versions of this trade running according to Bucco Blog so more as we hear it.

By the way, here's Sickels' ratings changes over the last three years (listed 2007, 2006, 2005 ratings in that order): Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Grade A/B/C+ Ryan Braun, 3B, Grade A-/B+ Will Inman, RHP, Grade B/B- Lorenzo Cain, OF, B-/C+ Dennis Sarfate, RHP, C+/C+/B- Manny Parra, LHP, C+/C+/B Mark Rogers, RHP, C+/B-/B- Mat Gamel, 3B, C+/NR Hernan Irrabarren, 2B, C+/C+/B+ Steve Hammond, LHP, C+/NR Angel Salome, C, C+/C+ Tim Dillard, RHP, C+/B- Mike Brantley, OF, C+/C+ Zach Jackson, LHP, C/B Vinny Rottino, UT, C/NR The interesting thing is that pitchers are much more likely than hitters to get downgraded over the three years. I assume it's just result of the difficult nature of identifying and cultivating good pitchers.

Actually, Sickels nabbed Brantley as a 'sleeper' last April. Brantley sleeper story I love that Brantley is showing a good eye for walks this young.

John Sickels has always been very wary of young catchers. He calls it Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome or something like that. Many catchers, he has found, never develop as hitters in the upper levels. Usually the test comes around AA ball. If they succeed there, they are looking good. Whether this is true, I don't know. Otherwise, he's not always hot to tag young A ball catchers with high grades. Doesn't mean he doesn't, but not often.

I find it hard to be that high on Melky. If he played CF, perhaps. But he's a corner OF with little power or speed (at least based upon SB). His minor league numbers were never particularly good - again, for a corner OF. Maybe he has CF skills, in which case he's more valuable. The nice thing Melky has going for him is his age - just 22. And his sudden willingness to take walks, something he didn't do much of in the minors. If that translates long term, he's a solid OBP type guy who can hit 10-12 HR. Not bad for a CF, but not ideal for a corner OF. The world, however, probably sees him as better than he is because he's had the luxury of having guys like Irod, Jeter, Giambi, etc. hitting around him. Not to mention the NY press has probably written a hundred stories of how amazing he is.

Brewers are up today: Link

While Suppan isn't the greatest thing since sliced bread, I would welcome him because he would make the team better. If you added Suppan, went on the assumption Sheets is fully healthy, and Vargas is in the rotation, here are last year's numbers (I doubled Sheets 17 starts/innings/etc.): Player IP ER BB K WHIP ERA Sheets 212 90 22 232 1.09 3.82 Capuano 221.1 99 47 174 1.25 4.03 Bush 210 103 38 166 1.14 4.41 Suppan 190 87 69 104 1.45 4.12 Vargas 167.2 90 52 123 1.44 4.92 Team: 1001 4.22 The 4.22 ERA would be 3rd in the NL. 1001 innings would be most in the NL, and help pen's work load. Are these numbers reachable? I think so. Health is the key. But if we had injuries, Carlos V. Galardo and maybe someone else is ready. A solid staff would help the bullpen from getting overworked (and I think the pen is questionable at this point), and it would mean even if we hit 'averageish', we'd have a good shot at a winning season. I guess a similar signing was Esteban Loiza last year by the A's. They added a sixth starter in him, and it paid off well. When they had injuries (Harden and Loiza himself), they were able to use Saarloos and Halsey - not great players, but passable players who kept things under 5 runs a game and thus kept them in games. They only had 5 games started by 'extras' in the course of the year. In contrast, the Brewers had 27 games started by 7 players, with only Carlos V. looking decent (I actually hope Carlos is in the rotation, but that's just me at this point). An 'average' starter - who clocks in 30 games and 190 innings and gets a 4.5 era, is actually a nice commodity. NOthing great. And at the price, it's not the most comfortable signing. Still, I think it would help.

This is on ESPN - Same kind of info - the team has offered Suppan a 4-year deal. story

For a second, I thought you were talking about me -- but then you got to the character flaws part.

I don't think signing Suppan should be significantly influenced by our future signability of Sheets. If Sheets goes and out and pitches Cy Young award-like, then he'll be ready to command $20 million a year after 2008. If Sheets pitches well - say mid-3.00 ERA, stays healthy, he'll be looking at $16-17 million a year, like Schmidt and Zito are getting this year. Perhaps more if revenues keep going wacky. Either way, the Crew will have to think long and hard about paying him that kind of scratch, no matter what our payroll is. And if you start talking 6-7 year deals, that's tough to accept. Still, front loading a deal for a guy like Suppan would help. If he's making $8 million or something like that in 2009 and 2010, he can be dealt easier if necessary, or isn't as much of a burden if you keep him on staff. Finally, I'd argue that the best way to keep Sheets past 2008 is to have this team kicking butt and winning, and looking like it will win for the next few years. If Suppan helps get us there, do it. I'm a great believer in depth. I think the team is doing better this year (bullpen scares me, however). EDIT: fixed spelling

Rios is a bigger guy - 6'5". Coco is six foot, much more slight. I believe scouts feel that Rios will develop more power. I also believe he's considered superior defensively. Rios is also 2 years younger.

I read earlier that they didn't want to go beyond 2-3 years.

I think Tavaras is one of the fastest guys in the game. Maybe I'm wrong there, but that's what I seem to recall. Tony would walk more. Personally, I think you're right. I don't think they're that different. Tavaras would provide more speed, maybe a higher BA. TGJR would walk a bit more.

Long term, here's a far fetched but fun (I least I had fun) way to add Suppan and still maintain financial flexibility in the future. Sign Suppan to 4 year/$40 million deal. Pay out $15, $10, $8, $7 million. Big payout in year one will allow for more flexibility in the future. Trade Turnbow, Clark, Jenkins and Mench. Don't know what you can get for them, but get teams to absorb as much of teh finances as possible. I alloted about $5 million in 2007 as money we'd have to pay to get teams to take said players. Rosters and payroll for next three years (purely speculative, but fun). 2007 2008 2009 C Estrada 3.75 Estrada 5 Catcher 0 C Miller 2.25 Miller 1 Catcher 0 1B Fielder 0.4 Fielder 0.4 Fielder 3 2B Weeks 0.5 Weeks 0.5 Weeks 3 SS Hardy 0.4 Hardy 2 Hardy 5 3B Koskie 2 Braun 0.4 Braun 0.4 INF Graffy 3 Graffy 3 INF 0 INF Counsell 2.8 Counsell 2.8 INF 0 CF Hall 3 Hall 6 Hall 9 RF Hart 0.4 Hart 0.4 Hart 2.5 LF Gross 0.45 Gross 1.5 Gross 3 LF Rotino 0.4 Rotino 0.4 Rotino 0.5 OF Gwynn/Nix 0.4 Gwynn/Nix 0.4 Gwynn/Nix 1 SP Sheets 10 Sheets 11 pitcher 0 SP Capuano 3 Capuano 6 Capuano 9 SP Bush 0.5 Bush 3 Bush 6 SP Suppan 15 Suppan 10 Suppan 8 SP Vargas 2.5 Gallardo 0.4 Gallardo 0.4 RP Cordero 5.5 Cordero 7 Cordero 7 RP Wise 1 Wise 1 pitcher 1 RP Shouse 1 Shouse 1 pitcher 1 RP Aquino 1 Aquino 1 pitcher 1 RP Capellan 0.4 Capellan 1 Capellan 2.5 RP Carlos V. 0.4 Carlos V. 0.4 Carlos V. 1 RP Sarfate 0.4 Sarfate 0.4 Sarfate 0.5 60.45 66 64.8 Key moves include letting Gross play fulltime versus righthanders. Against lefties, I put in Rottino. This is questionable, but what the heck. You could find a righthanded hitting OF to take the job, but I just picked Rottino. He had a .948 OPS against lefties last year in the minors. If he can hit .800 OPS against them in the majors, that's what we're looking for. Gross will need to hit like last year, when he has a .900+ OPS against righties. It would be a decent platoon. The bullpen would have slots for two rookies. Carlos V and Sarfate are there. That could easily change to other guys - Bray or Zumwalt or Hendrickson or Zach J. or whomever. Our costs are right around $60 million, so you would have $5 million or so to cough up to get teams to take guys like Clark and Jenkins. In 2008 you have Braun at 3B, assuming he's kept there. One of the starters - I picked Vargas - is dealt for depth, as Galardo is ready. Of course, maybe it's Carlos V. or Zach Jakcson, no matter, we give a young guy the job. We'd have to resign Cordero - I gave him $7 million - that might be too little. Relief pitchers are likely due for some raises, and one might even go away for another rookie. In 2009, there are holes at backup slots and catcher. Sheets may go, but I've elected to remove him for now. Perhaps Inman is ready to start. Or Carlos V or Mark Rogers or whomever. Suppan's cost continue to lower, making him a solid option. Without Sheets, the rotation is still looking okay. Relief pitchers might include Rogers or some other young guys. Pretty hard to peg at this point. I put in some numbers for fun, but they are just guesses. Our finances aren't too out of whack. Losing Sheets is the only real thing I'd see in the three years - but it's not a given. Perhaps we'd keep him and deal another player like Capuano. Just a thought. I'm already speculating wildly at this point with arbitration prices and so forth, so I didn't go any further. Just a wild guess at how we'd be able to survive if we got Suppan.

I read that Suppan is waiting for Zito to sign, hoping that other teams that lose out on Zito, will then get into the game after him. So, don't expect anything until Zito signs.

Let's assume Suppan wants (and will get 4years/$44 million. If you front load a contract, you can actually pay him a couple of million dollars less. So if you did payouts of $15, 11, 8, 8 millon ($42 million total), you might save a couple of million total, and make it easier to manage your funds post 2008. It also makes him easier to deal, if it comes down to that (of course, it means you've paid more per season if deal him after - say 2008.) Of course, you have to have $15 million available this year. That likely means getting someone to take guys like Clark, Tbow, Jenks and Mench - without us picking up much of the tab.

They just signed Mirabella to a new deal. 1 year, $750,000. Story (scroll down)

Clement is out for at least 1/2 of next year. Story Perhaps you're just trying to do some money matching. No matter, he likely wouldn't be able to help us next year.

Peanut vendor?

I read once that LaRussa makes his relievers look good because he understands their strengths and weaknesses really well, and more than anything, puts them in a position to succedd. Over the past five years, St. Louis relievers have ranked 7th, 1st, 1st, 14th and 3rd in ERA in the NL. Perhaps he knows what he's doing. Perhaps he's just had good arms. Maybe both.

If Boston dealt Crisp, who would play CF? Maybe like the grittiness of Brady Clark!

Red Sox got Donnelly from the Angels. Link

Whether the Brewers sign Suppan or not, the status of Sheets beyond 2008 is really questionable. If he has further injuries, would we want him? If he does great, could we afford him, no matter if we are paying Suppan or not? If Sheet pitches like he did in 2004 the next two years, he'll be looking at a $20 million/year deal. Even if he just stays healthy and pitches solid, he'll command $16-17 million/year. Cappy, Bush, Weeks, Prince, Hardy, Capellan, Hall and perhaps another important player or two will be arby eligible after the 2008 season. That will cost a lot (especially as Cappy and Hall go into their final year of arby). Keeping Sheets, without signficant revenue additions, will be hard. If he was Johan Santana-like successful, perhaps you do what you have to do to keep. But like the A's this off season, they let Zito walk, knowing he was going to get $15+ million. I'm not trying to be pessimistic. Just looking at the facts of where pitching costs are going.

This would be pretty amazing if he could pull it off.

Assuming we did sign Suppan, that could open the door to deal one of our other starts - Carlos V. or Vargas perhaps. Teams are always looking for young arms, and Carlos V. and a hitter (Mench/Jenks/Clark) might interest someone.