Matt Breen

In the wake of Kolten Wong's (somewhat) surprising release, I read some talk to expect a lot of extra free agents on the market this year. The big thing is that team revenues are down (and no one knows when fans will be allowed back to the ballpark - or if they'll even want to come), and thus they are looking to cut costs. That means fewer options picked up, and fewer guys offered arbitration. Teams are expecting to go with young players, and/or sign veterans at bargain rates as there will be a lot more of them on the market. Expect a lot of one-year deals - with players looking to set themselves up for 2022 when things are more likely to be a bit more normal.

5,200+ new positives cases today. 64 deaths.

My sister-in-laws father is now five days or into being hospitalized and is on a ventilator. No change the past couple of days, but at his age (90+), they have said to be prepared for the worst. And if he does survive, it will be a long recovery time (they said up to three months). Five others in the family have contracted COVID as well - but no one else had had to be hospitalized other than the father - so that is good.

This is so very true. I know I shared this story previously, but to me it is so heart breaking. My son's friend from high school - a 21 year old girl - lost her dad early on to COVID. Her mom had died when she was younger (I think around 8 or 10 or something like that). She has no siblings. COVID left her an orphan at 21 - no brothers or sisters. I had met the girl a couple of times - same with her father. Nice people. My son said everyone knew the father and liked him. He often volunteered at the school. You just hate to see decent people have to go through something like that at such a young age. All the stats in the world don't mean anything to a kid who has lost her father.

For those that like British Masterpiece Theater mystery types, I very much recommend 'Endeavour' - which is on Amazon Prime. It is set in the 60s at Oxford, and follows a young Inspector Morse. Great stuff. For those that don't know, Inspector Morse is a popular British mystery series (books and TV).

So sorry about your grandfather. Good luck for you and the rest of your family.

My sister-in-law's family has six people (her father, two sisters, both their husbands, and a niece) with COVID. Her father, who is past 90, is hospitalized. They had to increase oxygen for him yesterday, so that's kind of scary. I don't know how seriously they have all taken COVID, but I know at least one of them thought the whole thing was a hoax.

As a note, you are off by one year on Bledsoe's salary. It is fully guaranteed in 20-21 ($16.875M) and 21-22 ($18.125M). He is then only partially guaranteed in 22-23 ($3.9M on a base of $19.375M). That means he's guaranteed about $39M total for the next two years - plus the $3.9M for 22-23 if he's released. That's not a bad salary for a player of his caliber. But it's not great either.

I think this undervalues Beal by a lot. Is it closer with DDV instead of Wilson? Sure it's closer - but I still don't think it's there. Bucks have a lot of good pieces - but no one that can be transformative to the Wizards. Bledsoe (limited upside, almost 31, rep for collapsing in the playoffs), a couple of late 1st round picks, and DJ Wilson (really a non-factor here) are some decent assets. And DDV is a solid player. But I still don't think it gets you there. It's more quantity for quality. Beal is probably a top 20-25 player in the league. Those aren't easy to acquire - and thus you have to pay a premium for them.

Exactly. That's why you give it another try. Go all in in 2020-21. If Giannis leaves - well, time to blow things up. Or perhaps a sign-and-trade would work for the team if he's going to leave.

This is never happening. The Sixers give up Embiid and Simmons and end up with Westbrook and Covington? That's a terrible deal for them. Bucks make out like bandits. It's basically Bledsoe for Simmons. No way. Ilyasova at $7M doesn't really add value.

I think this undervalues Beal by a lot.

This is 100% correct. We'd have to pick up Ersan's contract, and then he can be traded.

These factors were all true in hotspots in March and April too. People knew it was going to spread and get worse. Roughly half the residents in the MICU at my friend's hospital got COVID early on. They had to shorten shifts because of the emotional burden. Almost all non-COVID, non emergency resources were redirected. Are you saying these are new factors in Wisconsin? They are new for certain parts of the state. In the north and north central the hospitals weren't overwhelmed with COVID - even while they prepared for it. And while many shut down non emergency surgeries and so forth, they started to open back up within 6-8 weeks. Getting more testing capabilities was a key for many healthcare locations. Now many places are experiencing - for the first time - what you describe. It may not be 'new' to the world, but it certainly is to many hospitals and healthcare facilities. And the longterm affects on staff is new. It grinds at people mentally, physically and emotionally. Many people can work under a lot of stress for months - but it's now more than 1/2 a year. Those effects are new (if predictable).

While this is all true to some extent or another, one would have think that the majority of underreporting is due to asymptomatic people who don't even suspect they're infected, right? That's a good assumption, but there have been a lot of other people who have symptoms but don't get tested. This was especially true early one, when testing resources were scarce. But yes, I'm guessing the majority of underreporting is the asymptomatic people.

I think there are some truths to this. On a personal level - we know a lot more than last March. The death rate is lower than many feared. We know how to treat the virus better and how to recognize it as well. Testing is much more robust. Most experts think a vaccine is coming next year. And we have best practices that we can follow to help avoid infection. In those ways, I think we are all less worried. However, many people believe that the overall effect of COVID will continue and only get worse in the coming months. And it could mean shortages. How this manifests itself remains to be seen. PPE and ventilators probably aren't that big of a deal as supply chains gets better every day. But beds are growing more scarce each day in Wisconsin. A few weeks ago, all the hospitals in Duluth were diverting all patients from their facilities. That's just one example. Another thing is that the healthcare professionals to handle all of these people could be strained due to doctors and nurses and other hospital staff getting sick themselves, or getting out of this kind of care due to stress/hours. I think we've seen this same thing with teachers. Also, it's important to understand that 'beds' don't matter that much if you don't have the staff to care for those people in the beds. Burnout is growing with many of these people - and will only get worse. The other issue popping up is that healthcare systems are increasingly having to put more resources into handling COVID patients. This takes resources from other areas of care. This can mean people put off going to the doctor - which happened a lot this past summer. This means they often come in later - and sicker. It also hurts healthcare systems financially - simply because they have to increasingly put off elective surgeries - which is a big money maker for them. Not a huge thing in the grand scheme of things - but still a factor. So, while many people are less worried - many are not. But I understand the statement, even if I don't necessarily agree with parts of it.

I think it's pretty obvious - and acknowledged - that the death rate is lower than 2.64%. Many, many symptomatic people aren't tested, and - especially early on - people with COVID were simply told not to get tested unless absolutely necessary. This was due to the fact there were testing shortages. And some people just ignore symptoms - and don't get tested. They just think it's a little cold or allergies - or are afraid of getting tested. A positive test, for instance, can force a person out of work for two weeks. Many people can't afford that. So they rough it for a few days, the symptoms fade (hopefully), and they go on with their lives (sometimes spreading the virus to others - sometimes not).

Second hand smoke isn't a great example as it is NOT tolerated in many places. You can't smoke in most public indoor places (and often outside of these places). The place it is tolerated is in the homes of smokers - where children and spouses and roommates get subjected to second hand smoke. To try and police people's homes is, frankly, a logistical impossibility, and runs into government overreach questions. Vaccine non-compliance is a better example (to a degree), but still an iffy comparison. Many places do require vaccines - such as for kids to attend school. The US military requires many vaccinations. Many hospitals and so forth require their staff to be vaccinated. Immigrants are required to have many vaccinations - including measles, mumps, rubella, hepetitis, etc.

So, if you want to make a major trade to upgrade the Bucks for next year, what do you do? Let's assume the club keeps Giannis (either on signing the SuperMax, or simply not trading him). Who do you trade for? Who do you sign? Some important notes: 1. We have very little, if any, cap space. So signing free agents outright isn't going to work. 2. We do have the Mid-Level Exemption to work with - which is around $9.5-10M. We can sign any combination of players with this exception - and still go over the cap. 3. Any trade we make means we have to take back 80% of the contract(s) we are getting. Thus, Chris Paul, who makes $44M, requires you to send Oklahoma $33M in salaries. Note: Draft picks don't count as salary until the player is actually picked. And you can't trade that guy for 30 days, so if you trade a pick, it won't be official until 30 days after the draft. 4. The club can sign anyone for minimum even if over the cap. Key names available (either as free agents or rumored to be available through trade). I've only listed guys who would be big additions. Victor Oladipo, Pacers (trade - one year left on contract) Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings (restricted FA - need to work a sign and trade) Buddy Hield, Kings (trade) Chris Paul, Thunder (trade, owed nearly $90M over the next two years) Joe Harris, Nets (FA - need to work a sign and trade) Danilo Gallinari, OKA (FA - need to work a sign and trade) Jrue Holiday, NO (trade - 2 years left on contract) Derrick Rose, DET (trade, 1 year left on contract) Mike Conley, UTAH (trade, 1 year left on contract) Blake Griffen, DET (trade) Goran Dragic, MIA (FA - probably need to trade as he will likely require more than the MLE) Most of these are players already under contract, however, the free agents will likely all get more than the mid-level exception, so a sign-and-trade is likely needed. Please pipe in with other names that you would target. Primary Bucks assets (not including Giannis) 2020 1st round pick from Indiana (24th overall) Eric Bledsoe Khris Middleton Brook Lopez Donte DiVincenzo Ersan Illyasova ($7M contract for 2020-2021, but it's not guaranteed.) Robin Lopez (likely to pick up his $5M option) 2022 2nd round pick from Indiana 2024 1st round pick 2020-21 MLE Exception (for signing free agents) Note: we cannot trade our 2023 1st round pick as you can't trade consecutive 1st rounders We've traded our 2020 1st rounder, 2020, 2nd rounder, 2021 2nd rounder, 2022 1st rounder MAKE YOUR TRADES/SIGNINGS With all that, what are your move(s)? And just as important - how do you accomplish them? While finances are always an issue, it's not always easy to calculate that stuff. So go over the cap in total salary - but DON'T mess with the cap with regards to who we can actually sign (thus, we can't spend $17M a year on signing Gallinari as we don't have that space. And we can't trade Bledsoe for Chris Paul as Blesoe's salary isn't at least $33M - which is the 80% rule required for trades made for players while over the cap). Please let me know if you see any errors. Thanks.

My brother's father-in-law test positive yesterday. He's elderly - over 90 - but in good health (at least for a guy over 90). Still not a good situation. We're really scared for his wife, who is (I think) 87. But she's not healthy. Just hoping she doesn't get it.

I have talked about the stress COVID is starting to put on our health care systems, and there was a good article from the Journal Sentinel today that covered this. And in a very local, and easy to digest way. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/10/19/aspirus-wausau-hospital-staff-urge-wisconsin-take-covid-seriously/3669849001/ Aspirus Healthcare - which has 10 hospitals in Wisconsin - set up a COVID unit with 25 beds. Now they have 98 beds for COVID, 80 of which are filled. 215 staff members have COVID or are isolating because someone they interact with has tested positive. This is leading to staff shortages, which affects healthcare of all types in our state. And it's leading to tired and frustrated healthcare workers. The sad part is that, when it's too late, almost everyone who passes wishes they had done something more. Instead of another Christmas with kids or grandkids, they're saying goodbye over FaceTime (with the nurse holding the phone for the patient). I think the trickle of deaths - a few here, a few there - makes people not realize how serious it is.

Here's the retrospective we did on Harper a while back. viewtopic.php?f=63&t=32620

My wife was talking with some hospital staff yesterday on the phone, and you could hear the weariness in their voices. COVID is rising in the ranks of healthcare workers, meaning others have to pick up the slack. That means more hours, more stress. Many healthcare systems have houses or hotel rooms where they can send their workers who are afraid to go home after working a shift at the COVID unit. Screeners at the hospital get spit at or cursed or threatened or told they are idiots. No one signed up for that job - but they do it. Stress wise - it's one of the worst jobs in the system. And then they leave the hospital or clinic or wherever and see unmasked people packed into a bar - and they wonder what the hell they doing it all for. Hospitals are filling up, elective surgeries are getting canceled again, and the worst is likely yet to come. The rise of COVID in our healthcare facilities amongst workers could become a really big issue - and very soon. Hospitals can't admit people if they don't have the staff to care for them.

My wife's organization's modeling shows things are going to get worse over the next 3-4 weeks. And their modeling has been pretty good. This is scary because the hospitals are getting pushed to capacity already. And you could see COVID cases dramatically increase - perhaps even double.

Regarding the mask debate, I guess if you just look at it with simple, common sense - it makes sense. I mean, with a mask on, my spittle isn't flying out of my mouth nearly as much. That just seems pretty basic and straight forward right there. Pre-COVID, when it was the flu season, if you felt sick, you washed your hands a lot, you turned away when you coughed, you didn't shake someone's hand, you kept your distance, you didn't go to work or church, you avoided nursing homes, etc., etc. Again, all this was stuff most people kept in mind during flu season every year. It's common sense. The severity of COVID - and its ability to be asymptomatic - means you are trying to do the same things - and more. Masks seem like the simplest and easiest and least intrusive of all these things.