rickh150

Like the one who leads all of the majors with 40HR? Ohtani is literally a one of a kind player. No one else like him exists. Just have a DH for SP and remove DH when SP leaves. This protects the valuable SP yet keeps the NL substitution strategy in the game. It’s an obvious move to me. Ohtani could be the DH and get his two or three cuts each game too on non pitching games.

I’m all for a DH for the SP and then let RP/pinch hitters bat after SP is removed. I think that would be the ultimate compromise that protects 200 million arms yet keeps a semblance of the NL game.

Rockies now have the 2nd best home record in baseball….

99.1% odds to make playoffs… Fangraphs

A Brewer could win the CY Young and not pitch the first two games of the playoffs.

Yes!!!!

One more…

Lots of left ducks on the pond

I’d rather think of it as Reds lose, not Cubs win.

Reds lose….

This is such a ridiculously far throw My arm hurt watching it. Not a smart decision by JBJ.

Keep the glove on him Adames and he’s out

Yep

The Brewers Wild Card odds are 2.8% vs Division odds of 95.8%. Those Division odds are doing exponentially more than the Brewers Wild Card odds to keep their overall Playoff odds way up so high. I agree… just meant WC increases odds of playoffs even more with a number very close to 100%.

Ok? If by 'regally above the discussion' you mean that my understanding of statistical probabilities will keep me from wringing my hands over the next 6 weeks? No claim has been made that you can't believe the contrary. Just noting the fact that the division race is basically over to try and keep you from developing an ulcer. But, if you care to disagree with the statistics, that's your prerogative, I guess. By “regally out of the discussion” I mean that if you consider the race to be over, it would make sense for you to stay out of this conversation and let people who want to participate do so instead of stirring things up. I understand the probabilities perfectly, although I sometimes wonder exactly how these sites arrive at them. For example, how do they figure the probability of a team like the Brewers beating a team like the Cubs in their current state, which bears little resemblance to the team that played the first half of the season? Do their projections/simulations take into account the human reality that teams can fold under the pressure when things get tight? Or do they treat every game like an independent event, which would make losing stretches like ones encountered by the 2007 Mets or 2011 Res Sox virtually impossible mathematically. These probabilities are not the same as things that can be computed with certainty, like the probabilities of tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, or drawing from a deck of cards. Even if I accept the conclusions of these sites that say the Brewers have a 90-95% chance of winning the division, I recognize that 90-95% is not 100%. If I were rolling a pair of dice and all I needed was a 4 or above to win, I would know that my probability of a win is 91.7%. So, I would expect to win, but wouldn’t bet my life on it. And recognizing that rolling a 2 or 3 is possible does not mean that I expect to roll a 2 or 3, as you seem to think. Finally, don’t worry about me getting an ulcer from following sports the way I want. I’ve been doing it this way for many decades, and I am just fine. But, thank you for being concerned about my physical well being. Love the passion….. now the odds are 98.5% to make playoffs. Kinda like the probability of rolling two ones (97.22%). The wild card likelihood, if we get caught, is what keeps this number way up. We have a 5 and a half game lead of the Padres (2nd WC) too. To lose out on playoffs, two out of these (Cards, Reds, Padres… or I guess 2nd place East team as long as other team is NL Central opponent) would have to finish ahead of us. With the Padres playing a tough schedule (check it out tough) and the Reds and Cards playing six times, the road is hard to get us out. By the way, just rolled two dice…. A one and a four. Rolled them again…. Two ones.

98.5% to make playoffs… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs

One more…

How is Adames defense comparatively using different metrics? I can’t believe he is a top half SS defensively. Overall, sure, but errors with routine throws have been pretty lousy lately.

I think the continual issue here is that one of the sides of the views on this is backed by overwhelming statistical evidence, and the other requires a massively unlikely set of scenarios to unfold. As such, thinking that may actually happen requires a pretty grim view of the team's future performance, and I don't think there should be surprise that that grim view is viewed skeptically as a result. So, yes. The division is statistically over. As others noted, the Reds and their fans have moved on to the wildcard, which is statistically more probable for them, and it's probably healthier for us to view it much the same. Fair enough…

[sarcasm]Of course it is. We are the Brewers so we can’t just be good.[/sarcasm] Just say the division is over then. “Don’t be so sensitive” of those who say it is not quite over yet in mid August because of several different games played scenarios, whether perceived as rare or really, really rare. If we are so incorrect in our thinking, just say it’s over and stick with your opinion. Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

We are all saying about the same thing…. Brewers are in a really, really great position to win the NL Central. Some are super comfortable with the lead, yet still won’t proclaim that the division is won. Others are comfortable NOW with the lead but they have some reservations about claiming it’s over because of current play/schedules/matchups/past history,etc.

But 2 1/2 is less than 8. Just stating what was going on then….

87.5% playoff odds at Fangraphs to make playoffs on Aug. 19, 2014 Leading Cards by 2 and1/2 Ahead of Giants by 5 and Braves by 5 and 1/2

It’s unlikely, but so was 2014. The Brewers ended going 9-22… scoring 2 or less runs 17 of those 31 games. With our offensive ups and downs this year, along with seemingly multiple guys going on the IL daily, it is a possible.

Yelich won’t likely be better than 2018/2019. He isn’t the 2020/2021 player either, regardless of what you see or don’t see day to day. My belief is that he will get better and healthier in the next few years. His back/knee was and probably is something real to deal with too. Hitting 20 HRs and batting .270/ OpS .800 is my expectation.