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Jacob008

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Everything posted by Jacob008

  1. Jacob008
    iron chef, thanks for setting it up. good luck.
  2. Jacob008
    Range factor might be the worst stat in baseball. It tells you how many outs a player makes per game. It tells us that Troy Glaus is the second best 3b in baseball and Alex Rodriguez is the 3rd worst. It tells us that Jimmy Rollins in the second worst SS. And here's a nail in the coffin at the funeral of Range Factor. Juan Pierre has the worst range of all CFs in baseball. It's an interesting discussion... Is Hardy or Hall the better defensive shortstop... but Range Factor tells you absolutely nothing either way. I wrote a lot more about this same conversation six weeks ago here: http://www.brewcrewball.com/story/2005/8/8/211620/8847 So I'll stop for now.
  3. Jacob008
    how about today's least feared, formally feared hitters? 1. nomar 2. ?
  4. Jacob008
    how about that overrated chant for D. Lee? Nice!
  5. Jacob008
    Russ, cute image. I like this one better though. Great expression. http://graphics.jsonline.com/graphics/sports/brew/img/nov03/prieb16p1.jpg
  6. Jacob008
    game on TV?
  7. Jacob008
    weeks has to come up with that one
  8. Jacob008
    i hope yost pinch hits hardy for hall here. ...doh
  9. Jacob008
    Todd, great article, love the series. Caught Stealing. I think an important number you left out is caught stealing. I'm not familiar with Raines' career, so I don't know how skilled of a base stealer he was. But if he was caught more regularly than the other base stealing HoF members, that might swing my vote to no. ...well i checked, he had an excellent SB%. Career 84% base stealer. I wonder if that's better than your control group... thanks again, great work.
  10. Jacob008
    please dont bunt rickie
  11. Jacob008
    did hardy make it to the warning track?
  12. Jacob008
    Pythagorean Win-Loss: RS^1.83/(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) Team, Actual Wins, Pythagorean Wins Yankees, 98, 96 Indians, 82, 89 Tigers, 83, 85 It does a good job predicting the wins for the Yankess and the Tigers, but it misses on the Indians. So I went looking for why... Clearly they scored a lot of runs, they either score runs in large chunks, or there is something runs allowed isn't showing us that cost the Indians a few games. I think it's the chunk theory... http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1923_sched.shtml Their WPCT (.617, 29-18) in blowouts is 8% higher than their WPCT overall (.536, 82-71) which is 8% higher than their WPCT in one run games (.457, 21-25). They also, by my count, were 11-4, .733 in games decided by 9 or more runs, including wins of 27-3 and 22-2. If you could shuffle around those runs in those huge wins, it'd make up the 7 games the pytagorean WL overshot by.
  13. Jacob008
    Ok, I started over assuming a 154 game season and roughly 5300 ABs and 500 BBs. I underestimated average number of walks a team gets. These two numbers are pretty important to the equation. So I got different results this second time. Also runs allowed is going to be very rough due to the low correlation of ERA to RA. Here's what I come up with second time through. team a) 761 RS, 586 RA, 97 wins team b) 808 RS, 646 RA, 94 wins team c) 762 RS, 663 RA, 92 wins and I'll predict the wins are exaggerated because RA is underrepresented as i mentioned above. On a hunch only I'll say RA are underrepresented by 10% and actual wins 90,87,80. Either way, I think they finished a,b,c in the standings.
  14. Jacob008
    154 game season? Ok: a) 104 wins b) 101 wins c) 96 wins
  15. Jacob008
    assuming some rough numbers, 5600 ABs, 500 BBs, and using the Runs Created Formula, as well as the simple pythagorean WPCT formula, here's what I get: team a) 846 runs scored, 586 runs allowed, 109 wins team b) 898 runs scored, 646 runs allowed, 107 wins team c) 847 runs scored, 663 runs allowed, 100 wins
  16. Jacob008
    will you break OPS into OBP & SLG?
  17. Jacob008
    If I had to guess, it might be because a pitcher who was so wild as to hit the leadoff batter isn't pitching well. Not only that, but how many times does that pitcher, after beaning somone, then get ejected only to be replaced by a less talented pitcher who has no ownership over that run at first. That's gotta account for at least 1/4 of the 1%. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif 4.5 million plate appearances. That's an awesome sample size.
  18. Jacob008
    Rlunz, how do you come up with your odds? You must look at the probability of winning each game individually, right? Take into account pitching matchups, and therefore the lack of Dontrelle Willis in the series allows the Brewers to look (statistically) like the better team (38% chance two wins, 37% chance one win).
  19. Jacob008
    nice! way to go turnbow!
  20. Jacob008
    I think the consesus was the bunt was moronic. Not every move. Don't let your emotions run away and start exagerating everything . The brewers bunt too much. Especially to move a runner from second to third. It's a dumb call, almost all of the time. Part of the reason this thread exists is to give us a chance to point it out. Right?
  21. Jacob008
    stupid bunt. one of the best hitters in baseball, let him drive the run in!
  22. Jacob008
    yeah brewers!!! (still stupid to have one of the best hitters in baseball bunt)
  23. Jacob008
    Has he pitched in the last 2 weeks? . Last pitched 6/17. Poor guy. Will they send him down soon? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/7281/gamelog
  24. Jacob008
    how many runs do they let Phelps give up? ...nevermind. turnbow in.
  25. Jacob008
    TNBrewerFan- fair enough. I'd actually be surprised to see Bottalico traded though. I thought Maddux/Yost were big on the "veteran influence" in the bullpen. And as I examined his stats more closely he only pitched more than 1 inning about 6 times in 30 outings, not a drastic as i thought. (those 1+ outings don't go well though).
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