adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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He doesn't get to play if he retires. If we won't trade him or start him and he still wants to play, his best bet is to show up for a little bit, and wait us out until we cave and trade or release him.
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My only issue really is with the concept that Rodgers announcing he's going to the Jets just gave us all the leverage in the world, and we should hold out until we get whatever we want, etc etc. I don't think that's an accurate portrayal of the situation at all. Ultimately, I don't think we can really say whether we should be holding out or just doing a deal now without really knowing what the offers are on the table. If the Jets are offering #43 this year and, for example, their 3rd next year that can become a 2nd if they make the playoffs and a 1st if they make the Super Bowl, I'd say just do the damn deal and be done with it. If we're willing to settle for something like that and the Jets are only offering some Favre like 3rd round pick return, then yeah, I'd wait.
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And here's the (entirely fair, IMO) counterpoint to that: Why should Aaron Rodgers, or why would Aaron Rodgers, retire and willingly walk away from the 60 million dollar contract that Brian Gutekunst willingly signed him to, just because the Packers won't trade him and won't start him?
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Why is there no scenario? I think on some level, he'd get a kick out of showing up to camp and making things incredibly awkward for Gute. What does he have to lose if he can't play anywhere else anyway? What's the worst case scenario for him if he does this? Shows up, collects 60 million dollars worth of checks to do nothing and makes his bosses look like complete buffoons in the process? I think that's a higher probability scenario than "take the high road and just gracefully retire."
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This seems pretty spot on to me
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He's not going to retire and willingly walk away from $60M or whatever it is on our terms just because we couldn't agree to trade compensation.
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I think we all know at this point that the Browns went crazy and Deshaun Watson was the exception.
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What makes you think Baltimore would match? They weren't willing to pay up before but now with two 1sts coming their way if they don't pay up they're going to pay up?
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I don't think he'd retire though, that's the thing. I think he'd much rather make things messy for us than go out on the Packers' terms. And I don't get why Lamar is a pipe dream. Seems like if they are willing to give up two 1sts and a Watson-like contract they can have him, no one else has really bitten.
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Insisting on #13 is overplaying your hand. Great if they can get it, but digging your heels in should come with some caution. There is absolutely a possible reality here in which the Packers completely overplay their hand and blow this. The Jets don't have many pivots, but they have some. They could sign Lamar Jackson to an offer sheet and see what happens. If you're going to have to pay a high price anyway, why not? They could trade up from #13 and land one of the big 4 QBs in the draft. They could ask the 49ers about the availability of Purdy or Lance. If they're not even making an effort to find a reasonable middle ground-- if they're completely inflexible and saying "1st plus or pound sand", they absolutely could be left out in the cold.
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I don't agree that it was the only and. correct answer. I think there was a pretty good amount of doubt on what their ability to "run it back" would be when it became known that we wouldn't be able to run it back with Davante Adams.
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I also think that it's also possible that Matt Lafleur simply didn't want to let Rodgers go a year ago and that played a big part in the decision. Obviously it's not ultimately his call, but I'm sure his opinion carries a lot of weight. I think he might have even have had his hand forced this time around. MLF is notoriously, to a fault, slow and hesitant to move on from his guys. He does not like change. No reason it would be any different with Aaron. To that end, any coach, particularly one coming off 3 straight 13 win seasons, is going to be more invested in the short-term outlook than the long-term outlook of this franchise. As Mike McCarthy will tell you, an elite QB will buy you a lot of job security.
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Are you suggesting that the Packers didn't move on from Rodgers last season in part because they think their fans are simpletons who wouldn't understand the complexity of the situation and instead would just chalk up trading an MVP player when you're a competitive playoff team as an insane, idiotic move, and would likely be picketing outside Lambeau with pitchforks and torches if they did? If so, yes, I think that's entirely possible. Even following this past season, up until a week ago or so, they were careful to avoid even the mere suggestion that they wanted to ride Rodgers out of town. It's almost like when MLF was publicly saying last year, "we'd be crazy to not want him back here" he was looking over his shoulder going, "right? Right?"
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Gutekunst and Ball shouldn't escape blame for how much easier, cleaner, and more beneficial in trade capital that it would have been to move on a year ago. I know, I know, hindsight is 20/20, but foresight is kind of their job. Unless they're able to salvage a shockingly good return, they definitely deserve some criticism here.
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I'll say this. Whether now, or in July, I think getting #13 in this trade is a pipe dream. (Unless a 13/15 swap). If they land a 2nd this year and something that has a realistic shot of conditionally becoming a 1st in '24, that should be considered a huge win. Example: (Realistic: Jets make the playoffs. Not realistic: Jets win the Super Bowl)
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You think if this falls apart A-Rodg is just gonna say "Shucks" and retire? Nah. Not a chance. Not even that he wouldn't necessarily want to, but he is not letting the Green Bay Packers dictate his retirement decision. He is not dumb, he knows perfectly well that we are not insane enough to just go ahead and carry an absurd cap hit for him to do nothing this year. So while I can't say exactly how it would play out, I'm quite certain he'd be willing to wait us out knowing that we'd be forced into a trade or release at some point.
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Yes, they do absolutely HAVE to trade him. There isn't any coming back from this now. There's no burying the hatchet in July because the market wasn't there. Look, you guys aren't wrong about a lot of this but you're also only looking at one side of the coin. Yes, the Jets are in a bad spot. They don't have any leverage either. They're all in on Rodgers and everyone knows it and it's bad for them if it drags on and they don't have a QB. But there's little leverage for the Packers either without any sort of bidding war, and no upside with only downside to letting it drag out. If they don't get it done by the end of next month, no '23 draft capital. If it drags on longer, it becomes unnecessary noise and distraction for Love and it's a bad look for the organization. And no, there's no realistic scenario where the Packers keep him on the books and he returns and he's happy and Love is happy and life just goes on. It would be a complete disaster. I guess I'd probably agree on the point that the Jets are more motivated to get this to the finish line now than we are, but it's not good for either if it drags on. And if we're really being ridiculous, there's nothing stopping the Jets from pivoting and saying "we might as well go kick the tires on Lamar Jackson if we're going to give up a lot of draft capital anyway."
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If the beat writer for the Packers is on point, everyone here is going to be quite disappointed.
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Except he says he only wants to play for the Jets, and no team in the world is going to give Green Bay a thing without assurances from Rodgers that he is actually going to show up and play there. That and the fact that nearly every other QB needy suitor has already addressed the position.
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True, but they know the Packers can't /won't keep Rodgers at this point and he isn't going anywhere else.
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After this announcement I would expect the trade compensation to disappoint. We just don't have any leverage at all.
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I think he meant the point in the draft where they would be sandwiched between the rounds, yes technically late 4th but for intents and purposes the late 4th/early 5th comp spot.
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Just get this deal done and make this diva the Jets' headache before he makes them sign all his buddies and then turns around and retires instead.
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Well, anything close to a Wilson comp from last year is definitely long gone. I'd be thrilled if we get their 1st. I'd be happy with even a 1st in '24. I'm preparing to be disappointed with a pair of 2nds.
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Bears get two extra 2nds, a 1st in '24, and DJ Moore just to move down 8 spots from #1 to #9. Holy smokes, that's a haul.
