adambr2

The Packers winning the Super Bowl in an uncapped season was totally circumstantial, though. It wasn't like they went on a big spending spree or did anything differently at all for that season.

I don't know how to quantify the difference in value between Rodgers and Stafford, but you might have 3 chances to win a Super Bowl with Rodgers and get very good but not elite play out of Stafford for 5 years. Stafford is also 7 years older than Goff so I think it's clear that production is going to outweigh age in trade valuation unless you're dealing with someone who may be imminently retiring. I don't see anything in Rodgers' performance or attitude that suggests he's planning on walking away anytime soon unless things change.

I don't actually think that's true. Cutting a player or trading them USUALLY doesn't make a difference, the cap hit is the same. But if they've got abnormally small signing bonuses relative to their contract, then Philly in theory should send us more, not less. Wentz doesn't offer any value...so if we're to take on his contract, that really should be more in return, not less. The signing bonus doesn't follow to the new team true, but the roster bonuses do. So cutting Wentz and trading him aren't exactly the same thing. That's why I say in a deal like this you almost have to take on Wentz to facilitate. It's saving the Eagles $10M for the roster bonus on Wentz for 2021. They still take a 33M hit, but that's better than 43M and thus is probably the only way they are clearing space for Rodgers, and then they are off the hook for Wentz after 2021. I'm not sure I agree that Wentz has no value. I think there is value in taking him on for a year and seeing what you have with better weapons and a much better line. He's still young with upside, like Goff. It's easy to move on in 2022 if it doesn't work out. But I do think you ARE getting more from the Eagles starting with the #6 overall pick. I also think Rodgers in San Francisco probably makes them a SB contender (thus picking late in the following year), whereas Rodgers in Philly would be still somewhat of a question mark.

Meh, I want no part of Wentz. Especially in lieu of an additional 1st. IF we were to blow the whole thing up, I'd rather take the picks and see what Love can do. At which point, even if he played like a top 5 QB, we'd still compare him to Rodgers and wish we have #12 back! I'd also add that the Eagles likely couldn't make that trade because Wentz has a 59 million dollar cap hit, but somehow the Rams just made that work with Goff, so who knows. I think in these types of deals it almost always has to be both high priced QBs exchanging sides to make the cap work on both ends. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Hurts.

Rodgers is far better than Stafford, obviously. I don't think their ages are that important, if Rodgers were 43 then yeah. But I think both are likely to play about 5 more years and Rodgers will offer a lot more value during that timeframe. Something fair with the 49ers might be two 1s + a 3rd plus Jimmy G. If the Eagles were going for it, you'd probably be looking at two 1s + a 3rd plus Wentz. Both offers are better than the Stafford return simply by virtue of the draft position. I don't think the Eagles would do it, but the 49ers would.

Trail by 18, find a way to come back and take the lead, and still find a way to get blown out by being dominated by a mediocre team in the last 6 minutes. I don't know what happened to this team when COVID hit but they have not been a bit of fun since then.

I'd be thrilled if I were a Lions fan. That's a haul. And you get a youngish QB with some upside.

Good rule of thumb on Twitter: if a guy with a couple dozen or less followers posts some "breaking news" that you can't find anywhere else, just chuckle and walk away.

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off. If we committed nearly half our payroll to two players? I mean first of all even the most homer fan should have the common sense to realize this trade wouldn’t even be possible for the Brewers. I may be be excited if we pulled this trade of and Yelich still had 2-3 years years on his ORIGINAL deal. The current Yelich deal and the Arenado deal simply can’t coexist on the Brewers. It would be an utter disaster. If you think we can't commit 20-25M each a year to 2 different players you can forget about keeping any ace type pitcher around. You better believe if Woodruff or Burnes end up as the type of #1s we hope they can be they are going to cost that much kind of coin after their initial 6 years, both of which are almost through half of that already.

And the year before that he was 1.157 at home and .860 on the road, year before that 1.132 at home and .819 on the road. Then when he went to St. Louis he was. 922 and. 912 which was fairly comparable to most of his Colorado seasons. Holliday was probably the better hitter but Arenado plays the more premium position and plays it extremely well. Arenado's defense is being glossed over, he is as good as it gets at 3rd and that gave him value in 2020 even when he didn't do much at the plate. I don't know if he will be over a .900 OPS but if I'm betting on either over 900 or under 800 I'm taking the over. Given what the Rockies are eating in salary, the Cardinals are on the hook for less years and less money per year than we owe Yelich on the new contract with him that everyone thought was just such a great deal for us. They got a lot better and I feel like a lot of us are just trying to downplay that to make us feel better about our offseason and team going forward.

The splits are what they are but how predictive they are of his future performances away from Coors are really overblown. One of the reasons that many Coors hitters have such extreme home/away splits is that they're constantly adjusting between the air at Coors and the air on the road. Once they are away from Coors on a fulltime basis they adjust and almost always outperform their previous road splits. Arenado matching his previous home splits likely isn't going to happen but he's equally as likely to outperform what he's done away from Coors so far in his career. We heard the same thing with DJ Lemahieu when he left Colorado, "can't hit away from Coors." Matt Holliday is another good example. Good hitters are good hitters and will adjust. Age will catch up to Arenado eventually like it does with everyone but expecting him to just have an immediate massive regression from not hitting in Colorado anymore is wishful thinking.

I see a lot of bringing up 2020 stats on Arenado when I also hear from others to just throw the 2020 stats out the window. Either 2020 stats are meaningful, or they aren't. Can't have it both ways. I guess where I'm at is that probably the most similar move we've made to this is extending Yelich, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone here who was disappointed about doing that at the time it was done. Is this going to be a bad contract for the Cardinals in 5 years? Yeah, probably. Are they going to be a much tougher team to beat in the division for the next 5 years because of it? Yeah, probably. I'm a fan of the Brewers and not an accountant for the Cardinals so I'm far more concerned about the latter than the former.

You can reference back to the Yelich trade thread that was bumped recently for a reminder of how a lot of people view things negatively, whether warranted or not... Definitely some but the positive vastly outweighed the negative in that thread.

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off. & how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April? Plenty. But that's the reactionary nature of the general masses. That's not really what I'm saying. We're talking if this passes the "I wish we would have done this" test. I'm saying if we were the ones that acquired Arenado, we'd be looking for reasons to love it, not downplaying it. It'd be no different than when we acquired Greinķe, or Sabathia, or extended Yelich. There would be a few of us in the corner going, "Gee whiz, we kind of gave up a lot," or "Uh oh, this could come back to bite us in 5 years," but the vast majority would be saying "OMG OMG OMG we got Nolan".

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

Pretty remarkable that the Rockies have never won their division in 28 years, but they have a remarkable similar track record as the Brewers during those 28 years. Rockies: 5 playoff appearances 0 division titles 1 pennant 2059-2314, .471% Brewers: 5 playoff appearances 2 division titles 0 pennants Don't know what the Brewers' record since 1993 is but would guess it's very similar.

I think it has been proven by now that the Cubs giving up a player like Torres was an aberration, and we probably need to stop using that move as a template for what can be expected for Hader. That was an incredibly short-sighted move for the Cubs (even though it did lead to a WS title), as it likely cut their projected window significantly. That doesn't mean that the Brewers cannot get good value for Hader. But if you are expecting a top 10 MLB prospect talent, you're gonna be disappointed. I think we moved from a top 20 to the 25-40 range as a headliner between last offseason to here. What may be going on is the guys you want are top 20&untouchables by other teams or they aren't competitive to trade for Hader. Then where Hader's value sits, theres nobody you want. And taking less on guys you like but not for headliner is selling Hader short. Tamps seems ridiculous as a rumor because you know they have low payroll threshold. The only reason I see Tampa trading for Hader is with the idea to trade him the following offseason. 6plus mil works but 10mil is a hesitation. I know Ive done this multiple times but I'll have to look at the top 100s out there to see if my thought still holds plausibility. I am certain that the Brewers do not care about a subjective prospect ranking list in their willingness to trade Hader. I am sure there are top 50-60 prospects that they are quite high on and top 20 guys that they like less. With that said I don't see anything in the trade market lately to suggest that either of those types of prospects are available for Hader. What I would guess is on the table for Hader is a quantity over quality type deal that would leave most fans scratching their heads and looking up their names. It would not surprise me if said return did not even include a single top 100 prospect let alone a top 40. So far the Brewers are unwilling to part with Hader on such a return and that is perfectly understandable and why I think Hader will remain in Milwaukee.

The problem with Gyorko is that you're chasing a career year from a 32 year old journeyman who is unlikely to replicate his 2020 and is far more likely just another middling option. It's not all that different than giving Sogard 4 million following a good 2019 and then getting no return on the investment once he inevitably reverted back to career norms in 2020. Gyorko is slightly better than Sogard as far as career journeymen infielders go but not by a lot. Don't get me wrong he would be better than nothing but there is a reason the Brewers turned down a reasonable $4.5M option on Gyorko and that tells you a lot about what they think about his chances are to sustain his 2020 performance.

As excited as everyone was to extend Yelich. ..there is a reason he signed it. And it wasn't just to do Milwaukee a big solid. For better or worse, the Brewers tied their fortunes to Yelich with that deal because the merit of trading him vanished before the ink was even dry. Here's hoping he rebounds in a big way in 2021, because they are going to need him. And they are going to need to put better players than Daniel Robertson around him if they are going to win a pennant in Yelich's career.

There are times when I think you've just got a lot of different perspectives. Then there are times when I think you've just been trolling us for years and years. Bravo, if so.

Blaming Rodgers for costing us the game is a little perplexing to me. Rodgers was fine on Sunday, he hit some throws and missed a couple, it was not his best game but certainly not his worst. Brady threw 3 picks and is going to the Super Bowl. This is kind of an illustration of our problem the last 10 years or so, we count on Aaron Rodgers being perfect to achieve our goals and we don't have much margin for error when he is not. When I think of the reasons we lost on Sunday, the defensive play before halftime stands in a league of its own and the fumble right away by Jones in the 3Q is a very distant 2nd. Then there were some other things but the performance of Aaron Rodgers doesn't even really scratch the surface for me as a reason for us losing.

Seems like a good idea to me. Maybe you're on to something! We still need a catcher too, and the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year is available to my knowledge.

I mean he averages about 6 WAR per season and has finished top 5 in MVP voting 3 out of the last 5 full seasons. He's pretty great. No mile high delight to save that bat going forward. Desperation move by the Cards. They’ll finish 3rd in the division and their rabid fan base will turn on them. Some insight Most players have better home/road splits to some degree. Arenado's are more extreme and Coors is a factor but I think any opposing fans expecting him to just drop to his career road splits are going to be pretty disappointed. I'd expect probably an .850-.875 OPS type player at worst, not to mention an elite glove. I'd say it's a pretty good move more than a desperation one. I'd certainly be excited if we were the ones acquiring him and I think most Brewer fans if being honest with themselves would concur with that.

I mean he averages about 6 WAR per season and has finished top 5 in MVP voting 3 out of the last 5 full seasons. He's pretty great.

What if behind the scenes with Haders first Arbitration, the Arbitrators "pushed" on the Brewers end to use Hader almost exclusively as closer? Like we're going to rule in your favor but for Hader's side, we want this process to go easier and suggest he be used in the typical 8, 9, 10th inning role a closer is used. And thus Counsell obliged. Say Counsell hearing of this is partially why he fully thought Hader should have won his case, because it meant managing him how he didn't want to only manage him. 1) An arbitration panel has zero vested interest in how a player is utilized on a team, 2) To make any suggestions on his role would be an enormous overstep of boundaries. It sounds like you're almost suggesting a theory that Counsell was blackmailed by an arbitration panel into making Hader the closer in exchange for the arbitrator ruling for the team. This would be highly unethical by the panel and I would lose a ton of respect for Counsell for obliging on such an offer whether he intended to make him the closer or not.