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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    Has Ervin fielded a punt before in his life?
  2. adambr2
    Second game in a row at home that we look like we decided we could just show up and be awarded a win.
  3. adambr2
    Special teams has been awful today save for our last punt. Really bad decision by Ervin.
  4. adambr2
    Weak PI call on Jack.
  5. adambr2
    Do teams ever miss a long FG against us?
  6. adambr2
    Sorry, I just strongly disagree. They whiffed on the valuations, then had to adjust after the fact to 'save face'. But, just IMO, of course. What are they supposed to do when they're wrong if they don't update their valuations? Just put an asterisk next the player noting that the value is wrong? This is exactly it. Changing the rankings IS admitting you're wrong. It's not an ego thing. It's a fluid and constant estimate based on the information you have. The information they got is that the estimate they put on those players didn't quite match the actual trade market, so the estimates were adjusted accordingly. I feel like if we were Padre fans rather than Brewer fans we would be way less miffed by their explanation.
  7. adambr2
    They've been cross-flexing games since 2014 at times. Bears/Vikings last year was aired on CBS.
  8. adambr2
    I agree completely. They lost any credibility they had (which to be fair, as a fan-run trade estimator site, probably wasn't much to begin with) by doing that, and their explanations were flimsy at best. In the end, it's a fun tool to play with and come up with ideas. But anything beyond that is inherently flawed. I thought their explanation made plenty of sense and I still question why people don't understand the fact that the results of a real-life trade will result in some modifications of player estimated trade value based on the new knowledge. I agree it's just a fun tool and no one should expect it to be perfect estimates.
  9. adambr2
    The changing of the grades was explained in detail on this very forum and had zero to do with saving face or making the trade look better or anything like that. You literally said "rather than take the L and admit they didn't have the players valued correctly, they went in and changed them after the fact." Um, isn't changing them an admission that they did in fact have them wrong? If they knew they were wrong, why on earth would they stubbornly keep the same valuation? It's not like the player valuations just ended after the trade. They didn't value them "retroactively." Their trade value estimate changed based on the market. If Kelley Blue Book says your car is worth $15K and one thousand cars of your type sell for $13K, the valuation will change because that is the price they are going for. It makes perfect sense that player values would be adjusted because of what the real trade market says they are worth and it doesn't have anything to do trying to make themselves look better. The trade value site is a nice tool for those who take it for what it is, a best guess current estimate based on the knowledge they have, and don't expect it to be valuation gospel. I'd trust/respect them less if they didn't change their estimate based on some macho need to avoid "taking the L."
  10. adambr2
    Ng is plenty qualified for the position. I don't really understand why anyone would question if she was just hired because of her gender -- obviously she has the credentials to be suited for the position. It's not like they just hired a random woman off the street to hire a woman for the attention. Whether she is the most qualified candidate, time will tell. I'm sure there were plenty of people wondering if a 30 year old Harvard grad with no prior GM experience was the most qualified candidate to run the Brewers.
  11. adambr2
    The $15.5M estimate for Hader isn't surprising to me. The cold reality is that Josh Hader probably just doesn't have the trade value that we think he should or want him to. If he did, I think he probably would be gone by now. It's not that his 2020 was bad, but it's another year gone with less control, and the remaining years of control continue to get more expensive. He's probably looking at 7M this year which will only get progressively more expensive in arbitration. The Indians preferring to lose Brad Hand for nothing rather than pay him 9M kind of tells us exactly where teams are at on paying for even the best relievers. Looking at comparable trades from recent years is pointless because that's just not the reality we live in anymore. Our options are likely to either hang onto him and either utilize him or hope that the baseball business world and the reliever markets specifically look much brighter in a year or so, or trade him now for what I expect would be a convincingly underwhelming return in the eyes of most fans.
  12. adambr2
    Indy is definitely a tough test and bad matchup. They don't run the ball well, but their defense could give us fits and I still expect them to put up some points. If we are really a Super Bowl contender, a game like the one against Indy on the road is one we need to put in the W column at some point.
  13. adambr2
    It's all about getting HFA, I would think. I don't expect a team like the Saints or Bucs to fare particularly well at Lambeau if it's 5 degrees. On the flip side I would not like our chances at either of their places even having won in the dome once.
  14. adambr2
    I'm not sure that we've seen enough from Dillon to say that he's a quality back. I hope so, but we have seen the drop-off for our ground game a couple times thia year without Jones and it is fairly significant. It isn't like Williams/Dillon have just been able to seamlessly replace Jones. I also have to disagree that anything the 49ers did in the NFCCG helped mold our off-season plan in any way, because if it did, 1) We sure as heck would have made more efforts to improve the run defense, and 2) I think that performance had a lot more to do with the 49er offensive line simply dominating our defense in the trenches than Raheem Mostert being a special back.
  15. adambr2
    Well yes, it's always easier to find a better player with an earlier pick. I wasn't trying to just say you can plug and play any old 6th round pick and necessarily have success. My point was more that the RB learning curve to the NFL is rather seamless compared to other positions that require more development. Rookie RBs often contribute and contribute considerably. It isn't like the Jordan Love pick at all. I can't think of many instances where a 2nd round pick was used by a team with an existing elite RB with the intention of it being a future pick. If Jones departs after this year it's a position that could have easily been addressed at that time. If Jones is kept it becomes even more confusing.
  16. adambr2
    Remember when you used to have to "complete the process of a catch" and everyone went bonkers about the rule because of the Dez Bryant non-catch, etc? I think we are getting a pretty good idea of why that was a thing now. https://nesn.com/2020/11/colts-philip-rivers-ravens-marcus-peters-react-to-controversial-interception/
  17. adambr2
    I was holding a slim lead over my opponent with him having Godwin and Succop to go. Figure I'm good, right? They're not going to send an already injured Godwin back out there down 40 points with 8 minutes left, and they're not going to kick field goals. Wrong. And wrong. Thanks, Bruce Arians. Dick.
  18. adambr2
    Definitely want the Saints to win that division since we have the tiebreaker vs. the Saints and no tiebreaker vs. the Bucs. Still need to at least tie the Saints of course. I think we have the easier schedule going ahead. Atlanta and Minnesota seem to have straightened things out and they play them a total of three times. Plus they also have the Chiefs. I can definitely see the Colts giving us fits. That just looks like a bad matchup to me, being on the road. I think we'll lose that one and drop one other oddball game like last Sunday and finish 12-4.
  19. adambr2
    Really not sure how that equates. Using a 2nd on Dillon has far more to do with ensuring a competent backfield in 2021 while Rogers is still QB and the Packers have no money for Jones and possibly Williams. There's a huge difference between using a pick for 8 games and drafting a guy and having him basically sit a year so that he can hit the ground running in year 2. It's a running back. You don't need to take one in the second round and groom him for a year like a QB to ensure a competent future backfield. They're cheap in free agency (except the elite ones) and very often contribute as rookies. One of the most effective workhorses in the NFL is a UDFA RB in Jacksonville. Gibson, Swift, and Moss are also having nice seasons.
  20. adambr2
    Definitely want the Saints to win that division since we have the tiebreaker vs. the Saints and no tiebreaker vs. the Bucs. Still need to at least tie the Saints of course.
  21. adambr2
    Would you trade a 2nd for an 8 game rental? Depends on the context. Am I a rebuilding club several years away? If so, certainly not. If I however have a HOF quarterback about to turn 37 and the conference is wide open I am certainly going to think about it when my WR depth chart drops off a cliff after my #1. I also don't think it's accurate to call it a 2nd for an 8 game rental. It is almost certainly a 2nd for an 8 game rental + a 2022 3rd or 4th. That difference matters. Most of the people questioning giving up a 2nd for Fuller also defend the heck out of using a 2nd round pick on AJ Dillon, and that line of thinking makes no sense to me. If a project running back who is 4th on our depth chart this year is worth using a 2nd on then trying to win Super Bowl 55 before Aaron Rodgers retired is sure as heck worth using a 2nd on.
  22. adambr2
    Everyone's favorite Super Bowl darlings aren't looking so great tonight.
  23. adambr2
    The fade route is such a terrible, antiquated, low percentage play. So what does Shane Steichen do? Dials it up on back to back plays. As a Herbert owner, I was disgusted.
  24. adambr2
    Is there any team lamer and more boring than the Bears?
  25. adambr2
    It's definitely a bad look for Jackson that some practice squad caliber receiver shredded him to pieces after we lost Jaire.
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