The division is definitely out. Even if you somehow sweep the Cardinals, which is unlikely in itself, you've still got 4 other games to make up just to tie...it's just not happening. Catching the Nationals is equally unlikely. So the only realistic target is WC2. You have to, bare minimum, take 3 out of 4 against the Cubs this weekend. You lose, you're done. You split, you're done. There's just too much ground to be made up and too many teams you're chasing to keep treading water. You've got to win the Cubs' series to even keep things interesting after.