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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    It's worth noting that home advantage in MLB is only about half that of the NBA -- 54% vs. 59%. So if my math is correct I think it's a 36% win probability for the Brewers if they are the away team vs. 43% if they are the home team, assuming the Brewers are a .600 team and the Dodgers are a .700 team. NBA series are also 2-2-1-1-1 vs. 2-3-2 in MLB but that doesn't change the math.
  2. owbc
    This is what political pollsters have done for certain candidates who their models struggle to predict. I find it to be a recipe for disaster. The correct thing to do (in lieu of figuring out why the model can't correctly predict the Brewers) is to present the results as-is. Everybody can look up the bias from past years and do their own correction. There is eventually going to be a year when the Brewers don't live up to expectations. It's inevitable.
  3. owbc
    Getting beat by the lower seed in the 5-game NLDS is the biggest risk and would be really bad optics for this FO, especially if we lose to the Cubs. The best way to give yourself more of an advantage in a short series is to get more pitching. We saw what Skubal did for Detroit last year -- he got them through the Wild Card and then started twice in the ALDS and put Detroit in a position to win both of those games. They didn't win but it turned a series where Detroit was a strong underdog into a coin flip with Seattle's pitching depth being the main difference maker. We've also been on the other side of this. We took the Dodgers to 7 games in 2018 when we were the inferior team.
  4. owbc
    I'm currently trying to pawn off Miz and Harrison onto someone else in my fantasy league but I probably should have shipped them off before their load management became common knowledge.
  5. owbc
    18% to win the NLCS vs. 39% for the Dodgers on Fangraphs. Same date in recent years: 2025: 12% 2024: 9% 2023: 6% 2022: 8% 2021: 18% So I think there is a strong argument to boost ourselves up to ~25% odds with a strong deadline given the statistics suggest we're already much more likely to win the pennant than most recent seasons.
  6. owbc
    Strongly agree, all signs point to them making at least one splashy move. What we don't know is if they will go against recent history and trade for a true rental like Skubal or if it will still have a "Brewers" tilt to it where they go for someone who can help them in at least 2027 as well.
  7. owbc
    That’s why a lefty reliever in particular is of interest. Then we can play matchups and not have defined 7th/8th/9th inning roles.
  8. owbc
    I would buy low on Henderson and/or Holliday in a second. I don't think Baltimore would be dumb enough to move them even if a change of scenery might benefit them. They also would be unlikely to help us in the short term, it would be more of a play for the next few years.
  9. owbc
    It’s priced like it is one of the richest companies in the world right now. Meanwhile, looks like we’re in for a rough earnings cycle based on the market’s reaction to Google. And oil hit 100 again. Fun times!
  10. owbc
    I believe in our ability to keep finding these guys. Sproat, Gasser, Drohan are all free to go in a deal that returns us a top starter or bullpen arm. Way better to lose a known entity in a position of surplus than lose one of our high ceiling prospects. Henderson is the youngest of the bunch at 24 and has shown the most impressive stuff albeit in limited time. I'd only accept him going in a Mason Miller trade. Not for a rental.
  11. owbc
    Some of these GMs in the pack of near-.500 WC contenders are going to be realistic and jump on the high demand from buyers. We saw it happen with Arizona last year and they still nearly made the wild card anyway. Boston is the only one that has played themselves off the seller list, which has at the same time greatly knocked down the odds of other WC contenders in the AL that were sitting below .500. Toronto (7% playoff odds), Minnesota (23% playoff odds), Miami (14% playoff odds), St. Louis (24% playoff odds), and San Diego (9% playoff odds) should all be sellers. Detroit at 48-54 and 32% playoff odds isn't going to miss the opportunity to move Skubal. That still leaves a ton of buyers though.
  12. owbc
    We need a TOR starter and a high leverage lefty to be really dangerous. Ryan and Morejon are my picks but if we want to make a YOLO trade for Skubal I’m all for it. We could probably use a depth bat, the Lane Thomas suggestion is a good one
  13. owbc
    I'm not even bothering to watch the 9th, off to watch Seattle.
  14. owbc
    If Joey hits for the cycle I will officially nominate him for the leadoff spot.
  15. owbc
    They don't have big names but they have a ton of talent and a ton of depth. And an identity.
  16. owbc
    I find it relaxing to watch this team coast through the second half of the season. I don't even want the 1 seed, I'd rather get the 2 seed and play the Braves/WC3 winner in the DS.
  17. owbc
    Are you using analytics to guide your feelings or feelings to guide your analytics?
  18. owbc
    On Vaughn, I wonder when he was actually 100% recovered from injury. It seems like it may not have been until last week. In the short term I would put him in the lineup every day to get him regular reps, especially with Bauers having cooled off.
  19. owbc
    There's the Joey-Yelich combo again, just like we drew it up. IGT in shambles.
  20. owbc
    It's not like the Dodgers are perfect either. They have a giant hole in LF, Tucker has been mediocre in RF, they get almost no offense at catcher, and their bullpen is just average again. Obviously they are at the top of the league in many areas, but I'm just saying they have a 3-5 player deadline wish list as well.
  21. owbc
    I can't remember the last time we accomplished a NOBLETIGER.
  22. owbc
    The original question was whether Joey's recent hot streak should cause us to pull Yelich out of the leadoff spot. My point was that Yelich isn't playing himself out of the leadoff spot vs. Joey, at least not yet. I agree with everyone else that Yelich has generally sucked lately but there's no way I would bat Joey leadoff because he's been hot for a couple weeks. Why do 30 days? If we go back a year, Yelich is outperforming Joey. Meanwhile in the game...ugh.
  23. owbc
    .343 OBP for Joey, so Yelich takes that one. Joey's actually slugging too much for the leadoff spot.
  24. owbc
    He desperately needs 20 lbs of muscle. I get so irritated when he squares one up and it's caught at the warning track. He's 97th percentile at squaring up pitches but only 8th percentile bat speed which is a horrible combination, especially given his high contact rate and sub-optimal launch angle distribution. Such wasted potential.
  25. owbc
    You seemed to be suggesting we DFA Yelich.
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