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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    If we're going to fork out that many prospects I'd rather just make a run at Skubal. They have like 4-5 other arms that could be available but a few of them are fly ball pitchers who are benefitting from Petco. And Adam is unfortunately injured. Morejon would be my top target, a truly elite bullpen arm who would be the primary closer on about 25 other MLB teams. Bonus that he's a lefty and has favorable splits against LHB. He pitches a bit more to contact than some high leverage relievers but is 99th percentile in ground ball rate. He would thrive with our infield defense. He won't come cheap for a rental but I prefer him over being stuck with 40-year-old Aroldis Chapman in 2027.
  2. owbc
    I wouldn't touch Ray with a 50ft pole. His home/away splits are brutal. Plus the Dodgers lit him up in his one appearance against them.
  3. owbc
    I'm feeling greedy and want a "ball don't lie" 5-0 sweep. Make them pay for moving that game to July.
  4. owbc
    I don't think Turang has the arm strength for 3B. Arraez doesn't fit the batting profile of a guy we would target. If you're going to be slow and have a poor walk rate, you better hit for power. And he doesn't at all. We have enough guys who can slap the ball around already. The guy is having a heck of a year though, he's a true enigma in the 3TO era that we live in.
  5. owbc
    I agree that batters are almost always sitting on one pitch. In the AB that got Lara his first hit, he looked like he was initially sitting breaking pitch so it was seeing them well and confidently tracking the misses. To me he looked like Juan Soto in the way he confidently let those pitches go. Then on the actual hit I think he was guessing fastball and was out in front/over it, but managed to adapt enough to get it through the hole on the right side. Yelich is older and has lost bat speed so I don't think he can adapt as well as he used to.
  6. owbc
    There is no way that Stearns is sending Freddy back to Milwaukee. It just can’t happen politically.
  7. owbc
    Alcantara is probably off the board now with the Marlins holding a 2 game lead on a playoff spot. I think the Cards will end up being soft sellers, with Dustin May likely to go. Gausman might be on the board as well per earlier discussion in this chat. All that said, I expect us to pick up an arm.
  8. owbc
    When we got hot around this time last year I remember thinking “better enjoy it, this is a once-in-a-lifetime type team”. Turns out I was wrong.
  9. owbc
    They are probably laughing about this in the clubhouse after dropping a 16 spot on the Mets.
  10. owbc
    If they were down 1 or even tied I think they would have gone with the low leverage arms. When you're sitting at a 75% win probability in the 7th inning, the book says to play for the win and worry about tomorrow later. On the flip side, our opponent burned two high leverage arms and has nothing to show for it.
  11. owbc
    It's easy for fans to be negative and extrapolate that eventually their "luck" will run out and they will start losing these close games. That usually happens when a team is playing over their heads. The scary thing (for our opponents) is that their winning pace is clearly sustainable.
  12. owbc
    If they keep getting 10+ hits/game they will start scoring 6-7 runs/game sooner rather than later. Especially in a 5-game series where they are already busy wearing out the opponent's high leverage pitching.
  13. owbc
    Did just enough to win and nothing more. Some might call that efficient.
  14. owbc
    He looks how I would look sitting in the stands in a day game with swamp weather
  15. owbc
    Yep, that's why they are working on mixing in the offspeed stuff. Especially against a divisional opponent that just saw Miz barely over a month ago.
  16. owbc
    I have to wonder whether it is intentional for some ulterior reason. One can experiment a bit when you're 23 games over .500 before the all-star break. Can't just throw 4-seam fastballs.
  17. owbc
    I'd pass also, but just to play devil's advocate, do we have any intel on what Willson's teammates think of him? From what I can tell he is outspoken but generally considered a good teammate. There are other guys out there like Josh Naylor who are a bit psycho and drive opponents crazy but are ultimately a net benefit to the team they are on. I'd still pass though, if it ain't broke...
  18. owbc
    Truly phenomenal. If my math is right, they were 190 games under .500 in the National League after the first 10 seasons (714-904). They are now just 167 games under .500 as a franchise (4461-4628), meaning that .500 overall is a reachable milestone within their current competitive window.
  19. owbc
    I like hanging onto guys that we can extend a QO to. Guys like Bill don't grow on trees like fixable starting pitchers do 🤣
  20. owbc
    I think all of the above is true to some extent. They are not as bad as they looked and could have won on a good day if the chips fell right. Belgium had a good game plan and exploited their flaws. The political stuff was absolutely a distraction and/or a motivator for Belgium. There is a talent ceiling that they were butting against. That blunder was just so bad. It robbed everyone of the chance to see them try to equalize. The storyline might be completely different if they had another 30+ minutes to try and make it 2-2, even if they ultimately lost.
  21. owbc
    I'm glad Durbin is doing better, we need teams to continue to want to trade with us 😅
  22. owbc
    Buyer beware for any player in their mid-30s, especially role players. You never know when they are going to fall off a cliff.
  23. owbc
    For real. I watch about equal between the Brewers and the Mariners. The Mariners are 47-44, in first place, and are coming off of an ALCS appearance. The Brewers are 1000x more watchable. It's not even close. When I saw the Brewers are hitting like .150 with RISP over a few weeks, I was like, whatever, the Mariners batted .150 as a team in all situations back in April for like two weeks. Most of the Mariners' offense is to draw a couple walks and hope for a home run. A little over a month ago, I went to two Mariners in the span of about a week and they GOT ONE HIT BOTH TIMES! I'm not even joking. Then the third game I went to they got 4 hits and that felt like a lot. Rob Reysnyder has gotten 119 PAs for the Mariners in a favorable platoon situation. He is batting .133 with an OPS+ of 22. And he doesn't make up for it with his glove. I could go on and on. Remember, the Mariners are not bad, they are in first place with a +27 run differential and will likely win their division. Their team OPS+ is 99, basically average. Yes, they pitch well, but their pitching ability is about equal to Milwaukee and actually worse when you take away their favorable home ballpark. Brewers fans are going to be in for a rude awakening the next time we have a below-average offense. The average offense in MLB is terrible and half the teams are worse than that!
  24. owbc
    The rest of the world is surely enjoying this
  25. owbc
    I think that's why we're seeing the position moves happening in the first place. League average OPS is now identical at 3B and SS. As recently as 2022 there was a 33 point OPS difference going from SS to 3B.
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