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Last model run before the storm and they trended back even farther south again as anticipated. Madison might have frozen precipitation the whole time now--over an inch of liquid water equivalent. I have no idea how Madison always seems to cash in on the big storms, but it looks to be happening again. Precip will start as freezing rain and sleet but quickly change to snow in the afternoon. The forecast will likely be upped to the 8-12" range. Milwaukee is still a little more of a question mark. There should be a nice heavy rain in Milwaukee in the afternoon. Everywhere north and west of a Johnson Creek to Sheboygan line should get at least 8". The rain/snow line will then gradually migrate eastward, with totals decreasing down to 2-3" near Kenosha. It looks like the NWS is going to wait for the European model before going to a warning, that might change my forecast a bit but I'm fairly confident based on the current location of the low in Nebraska.

Yeah Wausau is going to get dumped on. The official forecast is 10-18", I can't see any reason to dispute that. Edit: the NWS thinks southern WI will get more than I am predicting, but this is one of the most pessimistic forecast discussions I have ever seen. They are basically expecting their forecast to fail: FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT COME INTO A REASONABLY TIGHT CONSENSUS...AND THIS IS PRETTY UNUSUAL GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW UNTIL THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. FOCUS OFTEN IS ON THE INCREMENTAL SFC LOW POSITIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. A TRACK ACROSS CHICAGO USUALLY MEANS ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL SEE APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO...THE MODELS HAD A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... ESSENTIALLY MISSING US. THEN 36 HOURS AGO MANY OF THE MODELS SHIFTED...RATHER JUMPED...FAR NORTH...TAKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THAT MEANT MORE OF WET/MIXY WINTER EVENT FOR US. THE SHIFT NORTH ISN/T UNUSUAL...THE DEGREE OF THE JUMP WAS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH NOW. THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ALWAYS HAD A SOLUTION SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.. ACTUALLY SOUTH OF CHICAGO. THE 12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA...NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SOUTH...MOVING IT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WITH THE ENSEMBLE GFS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS OVER CHICAGO. THAT/S TROUBLESOME AND MEANS A COLDER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE HAD. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND IS ACTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER NOW. MORE TROUBLE. LOOKING AT THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED...THAT COULD BRING WARNING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE VARIED SOLUTIONS OUT THERE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR TWO NRN ROW OF COUNTIES...MINUS OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. KEEP THE WATCH AND ACTUALLY EXPAND IT A BIT. NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS ON A SOUTHERN SOLUTION BEFORE THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXPAND THE WARNING. IN FACT...THE NAM/S NORTHERN SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING RIGHT AND THIS WOULD MAKE THIS FORECAST A BIG GOOSE EGG. WE MAY SEE WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...THUS THE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO THE WI/IL BORDER. THE SOUTHERN SHIFT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 500 AND 700MB LOWS ARE ALL VERY SOUTH...CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN SOME CASES...OF THE SFC AND H8 LOW CENTERS AND THIS IS RATHER INVERTED FROM TYPICAL SYNOPTIC ORIENTATION. SO...TO SEE THE LOWER LEVELS PULLED/FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVELS...MAKES MORE SENSE. [/pre]

Just came inside to look at the new models--was sitting out in the sun enjoying a nice 70 degree day. As for you Wisconsin people... Latest update--slight southward shift in the last model run--rain/snow line looks to set up somewhere from Madison up to Beaver Dam and Sheboygan. Precipitation will start out mixed and then change to rain in the south/east and snow in the north/west before eventually transitioning to all snow everywhere. It is an extremely difficult forecast. There is only about a 50 mile difference between the areas that will get 8" to 12"+ of snow and the areas that will see a slushy 2-4" with sleet and freezing rain mixed in. The track can also easily shift by 50 miles in the next 24 hours. Right now it looks like the Milwaukee area will see a total of 1-4 slushy inches and the Madison area will see about 3-6". There is also the possibility of enough freezing rain to cause travel headaches because of the cold air already in place. If the colder track ends up happening, an additional 2-4" could fall on top of my forecast totals. Regardless of the actual totals, I recommend just staying inside on Saturday.

Now it looks like the weekend storm is going to impact Minneapolis and Northern WI. Mostly rain is expected in Southern WI. Maybe a few inches of snow on the backside when the cold air hits, but nothing major. The Winter Storm Watch will almost certainly be canceled. Major impacts will be north of a La Crosse to Green Bay line.

Winter Storm Watch out for Saturday. 6-10 inches expected NW of a Mineral Point-Madison-Beaver Dam-Sheboygan line. Lesser accumulations SE of that line. The exact location of the rain-snow line will most likely be refined in future updates.

Thanks guys! I have a good time following the winter weather, so it's nice to pass on the information. Latest models bring the snowier solution to Wisconsin, possibly warm enough for rain near the WI-IL border and right along the lakeshore. I hesitate to make any forecast changes based on the differences between the models. We will be talking about rain instead of snow in Milwaukee if the forecast track moves much farther north. Definitely one to watch closely for those with travel plans on Saturday. No matter what the snow total, some really cold air is coming in right behind the storm. There is no dispute about that.

Tricky forecast this weekend. Looks like a general 2-4" on Saturday from a potent mid-level wave. That will come mostly in a quick burst and could be mixed with rain to the south. Not much agreement on whether we will get a low pressure system developing as well. I would say that 2-4" looks like the minimum amount, with 4-8" if the more intense scenario plays out. Too soon to say for sure.

I'm sure one of our top pitching prospects is getting sent over. A pitcher with 3 years of major league experience with a sub-4 ERA does not come cheap, especially coming from the AL East. I really hope it isn't Rogers or Jeffress. If we are working with the Blue Jays, you also have to wonder: 1) Is Toronto is going to turn around and trade their return to Kansas City? and/or 2) Has Prince Fielder's name also come up in discussions?

Forecast As a meteorologist, I should add that I think the actual totals will be less than the NWS forecast. The models have been trending weaker lately. (killed leftover arrow icon from deleted link --1992)

They are going to drop that Winter Storm Watch for Madison. Madison will not see more than 4-5" if the current models hold, and even that might be an exaggeration. It's just an Alberta Clipper. There might be a few 6" totals but it would be in a narrow band in far SW Wisconsin or somewhere along the lake that gets stuck under an LES band for awhile.

Can't help it, I still love following Midwest winter storms. But I'm not complaining about the forecast high of 75 for the next week here.

JDLR is worth more money than Randy Wolf? If that is the case, there's no point in signing any free agent pitchers this winter.

Latest forecast is 3-6" for Friday night into Saturday. Higher amounts SW of Madison and near the lake.

Looks like an Alberta Clipper is going to bring the first accumulating snow of the year to Southern WI this weekend. Early estimate is 2-4" of fluffy snow Friday night into Saturday, highest amounts south and west of Milwaukee and Madison.

Of course, "Home of the Chiefs" is a tradition in KC in the NFL. I don't see a problem. Also, I got word that the students are chanting "Rose Bowl rejects" at the MSU-UW hockey game tonight. Awesome.

Blaze orange is also an acceptable color to wear at Wisconsin winter sporting events.

First November tornado in Wisconsin since 1971.

If Mark Cuban is serious about owning a baseball team, this is a good chance for him to go for it again.

Yeah, his production has been down, but look at his defense--he won another gold glove!

It's a little early for this, but there are some hints at a Thanksgiving storm for WI in the mid-range models. Looks like it will be cold enough for a swath of snow--location depends on the storm track.

When buying a plasma TV, you might want to consider power consumption. It seems like most plasma TVs cost $30-$40/year more in electricity compared to LCD TVs and there are a few especially bad TVs that use way more than that.

Gasser was in foul trouble tonight.

I know it's North Dakota, but Wisconsin is in mid-season form tonight. As usual, the shot selection, ball movement, and rebounding are especially impressive. It's amazing how much consistency Bo has brought to the program.

The Brewers marketing department must love the continued discussion about the logo. If they change back to the old logo, there's no going back. Better to keep both logos and feed the debate with little modifications every few years. I certainly own more Brewers stuff than I would if they only had one color scheme/logo.

I'm not going to get excited about it. Fielder and Boras are probably just drumming up attention for next year. Maybe they are looking to negotiate a sign and trade. Or most likely they could just be negotiating a 2011 contract to avoid arbitration. He would be much easier to trade with a 2011 contract signed.