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ClosetBrewerFan

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  1. I think Yelich and McCutchen's grades are a little too high. Yelich because he's getting paid to be the best hitter on the team and he is no where near that. McCutchen was so bad at the start that even his hot streak has left his numbers overall poor for a DH (or bad outfielder). You did not rate Jonathan Davis. Yes its only 70 PA, but he has exceeded my expectations (although they were very low to begin with). His OBP is slightly higher than Yelich's at 348, except he has almost no slugging to speak of. His defense has been somewhere between above average and outstanding. Still, we need an upgrade here if we want to get to the playoffs. I'll give him a C considering I had zero expectation for him and he is getting minimum salary.
  2. I compiled data on each of the last 20 drafts to see how many players reached the majors and how they fared. It was interesting to see how few players made it. In this blog, I will evaluate each draft by career WAR of the players and by a somewhat subjective evaluation of talent as described below. All Star - Player made the MLB All star team Regular - Player was a starter for at least two years Role Player - Part time player Callup - Player had limited playing time each year he was called up This will be a multi-post article due to the amount of content I have. Let’s start with 2002 and a very memorable first round selection. Note: In parentheses are their career WAR as calculated by Baseball Reference. 2002, draft order - 7th, 42 players selected All Star - Prince Fielder (23.8) Regular - Tom Wilhelmson (4.8), Craig Breslow (6.3) Role - Dana Eveland (-1.5), Tim Dillard (-0.6) Callup - Callix Crabbe (-0.5) The 2002 draft was the start of the Brewers revival in my mind. Initially a controversial pick due to his physique, Fielder was a mainstay in the Brewers lineup starting in 2006, playing nearly every game each season. A couple of pitchers were able to become regulars in the majors with other organizations. Dim Tillard had middling results in the majors but made his mark more with his off-field videos and now on the broadcast team. 2003, draft order - 2nd, 50 players selected All Star - Rickie Weeks (11.5) Role - Tony Gwynn Jr. (5.1), Mitch Stetter (0.6), Carlos Corporan (0.4) Callup - Ty Taubenheim (0), Drew Anderson (-0.1) The Brewers had the second overall pick in the 2003 draft and used that on Rickie Weeks. Though he had his flaws, in hindsight, that probably was the right choice. Delmon Young, who was picked 1st overall, had a career WAR of 3.2. The 3rd, 5th, and 6th picks were busts and did not make the majors. The best player of the 1st round was Nick Markakis (6th, 33.6 WAR), though can't blame the Brewers as Young and Weeks were the clear top favorites. Five other Brewer picks made the majors, with limited success. Tony Gwynn Jr was an OK backup OF, but only had a career 619 OPS. Capt. Lou Palmisano (AKA WOAH SOLVDD) was drafted in the 2nd round but never lived up to the hype and the most memorable Brewerfan post of all time. 2004, draft order - 5th, 50 players selected All Star - Yovani Gallardo (19.2), Lorenzo Cain (38.4) Callup - Mark Rogers (1), Angel Salome (0) Only four Brewers picks made the majors but they made the most of them. Gallardo was the Ace of the staff for many years, and Cain (draft and follow pick) ended up partially netting us Zack Greinke. Lorenzo came back to the Brewers later on and provided 11.6 WAR in his 5 years along with great defense and team leadership. Fifth overall pick Mark Rogers got nine starts over two seasons but injuries ruined his career. 2005, draft order - 5th, 49 players selected, no 2nd round pick All Star - Ryan Braun (47.1), Michael Brantley (34.1) Role - Zach Braddock (0.2) Callup - Matt Gamel (-0.2), Steve Garrison (0), Taylor Green (-0.3) A dominant draft in 2005 resulted in two stars in Braun and Brantley. Aside from Braun’s suspension, he was the face of the franchise for over 10 years. He also made an immediate and significant impact within 2 years of being drafted. He goes down as one of our best and most controversial Brewers. Brantley ended up being a throw-in to the Sabathia trade and he still continues to perform with other organizations. Five All-stars selections and he is still going strong. His career WAR could still go up (or down). There was so much promise with Braddock, Gamel, and Green though they never were able to truly succeed in the majors. They lost their second round pick due to the Damien Miller offseason signing. The 2005 draft was loaded with a ton of stars drafted in the top 10 picks (Upton, Gordon, Zimmerman, Tulowitzki), but Braun has the highest career WAR. McCutchen (picked 11th overall) has the second highest career WAR of 46.3 and will likely pass him up (hopefully this year as a Brewer). 2006, draft order - 16th, 50 players selected All Star - Jeremy Jeffress (8.8) Role - Cole Gillespie (-0.6) Callup - Mike McClendon (0.3) The on-field success in the majors in 2005 resulted in the first non-losing season in 13 seasons, and also a lower draft pick. Even though they still drafted 16th, the Brewers got little out of the draft. There were a few stars from the 2006 draft, with Scherzer, Kershaw, and Longoria all picked before us. Ian Kennedy (21st pick, 18.5 WAR) may have been a better first round choice than Jeffress, but only slightly. Jeffress was an all star but only after returning to the Brewers as a free agent. He was a big part of the Greinke trade and later went to Texas for Brinson and Ortiz. Most of his success was with his three separate tours with the Brewers. With only 3 total players making the majors, 2006 was a very disappointing draft. The rest of the players picked are a list of names you probably never heard of. 2007, draft order - 14th, 46 players selected, no 2nd round choice All Star - Jonathan Lucroy (17.7) Role - Matt LaPorta (-1), Eric Fryer (0.8), Donovan Hand (0.9) Callup - Eric Farris (-0.1), Caleb Gindle (0), Zealous Wheeler (0) The 2007 draft resulted in seven major leaguers though few had success save for All star Lucroy. First round selection LaPorta had little success in the majors but helped net Sabathia. We could have chosen Madison Bumgartner who went three picks later and signed for the same bonus ($2M). The Brewers lost their second round selection due to the disastrous Jeff Suppan signing, though the Cardinals got nothing from that compensation pick. The Brewers 3rd and 4th picks (Farris and Gindle) made the majors but only for a cup of coffee. These six drafts were significant in the Brewers becoming competitive again in the late 2000’s after such a long dry spell. They also fed so much Brewerfan discussion including making the Power 50 feature easier to fill out and far more interesting. Stay tuned for more blog entries that will cover the drafts from 2008 through the 2020's. I will finish it with a final summary and analysis of all 20 drafts as well as an answer to which was the best draft.
  3. Why would you say it is "proven". I have seen no evidence, video or other physical evidence. Our law says "innocent until proven guilty". That does not say I dont believe he could be guilty. Just that legally, it has not been proven he is guilty. I think its the correct term.
  4. That is pretty severe for unproven allegations. The DA said they did not have enough evidence to convict beyond a reasonable doubt. Seems like 2 year unpaid suspension and 1 year paid suspension for a guy already in his 30s is pretty strict. I'm no fan of Bauer and think he is a jerk but that is quite the precedence.
  5. Excellent writeup and always a great memory of mine. Maybe my favorite just because of how unexpected it was. Family was all gathered around the radio. When Deer hit that HR, we were screaming all through Gantner's walk and most of Sveum's AB until we eventually realized that Sveum hit the game winning HR. Here is a video link:
  6. Excellent writeup and always a great memory of mine. Maybe my favorite just because of how unexpected it was. Family was all gathered around the radio. When Deer hit that HR, we were screaming all through Gantner's walk and most of Sveum's AB until we eventually realized that Sveum hit the game winning HR. Here is a video link:
  7. Well sure, but I dont there were many of us calling for Bickford to be DFA'd. In fact many were saying we would have DFA'd others before Bickford. Bickford has multiple years of control. Dan Norris was not good for Detroit and has been worse for us. I agree we should give him more than 5.2 innings to try him out, but he should be on a short leash.
  8. The alternative to Norris would be Perdomo/Milner. Do you think they are better options? Certainly Norris hasn't had a good first few outings by any stretch, but shouldn't call for a DFA unless you are convinced one of those guys is better. I think we give Norris a few more chances before we cut ties. And he'll actually probably be easier to hide in the back of the bullpen once September rolls around if he doesn't figure it out before then. Regardless, this is a bit of a miss for Stearns at this point clearly unless something drastically changes. This. I think they do have better options. The alternative to Norris going forward is Gustave (he will likely be optioned once off COVID), Topa, or Sanchez (optioned when Houser comes off COVID). I think the reason Stearns acquired him was for depth. They didn't know if they could trust all these RH relievers we had with excellent but small sample results. I'm sure they thought he could be a decent reliever but he has not been. Its a small sample, sure, but we gave up a lot for a rental. Reece has been pitching very well for Detroit. I'm not ready to DFA him yet, but I'm close. An ineffective 3rd LH RP << Topa, Sanchez, or Gustave.
  9. 2 months. He's a free agent at the end of the year. I like the Curtiss trade better than this one. Not sure this makes our bullpen better as he will be replacing Gustave or Sanchez. It is definitely deeper so there is value there as long as he pitches better than he has this year. Olson is no world beater at this point but I would rather have kept him. Stearns is surely banking on Norris pitching better down the stretch but it seems like we could have gotten him cheaper than this. I assume we are picking up the rest of his contract ($2M+) so not cheap but reasonable.
  10. I don't know. This Yelich guy is starting to look pretty good. I think the Brewers have a chance to win this trade.
  11. Agreed. Lathund's post sums up my thoughts perfectly. I keep going back and forth on how I feel about this trade. It's hard to lose all that potential, but that is all it is at this point. This is really all about risk management. Stearns traded high risk (high reward) prospects for a known, young commodity. The intent is an upgrade of talent in the short term with long term stability. This is still consistent with Stearns motto of obtaining young controllable talent. The farm is still extremely deep but the top of it just got a major haircut. We cannot sustain another of these though. The Cain signing is a headscratcher though. 5 years is just too long, but obviously he sees something that I don't. But Cain is not young and while he is now controlled through 5 years, will not be cheap. And I like Cain, but still...
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