Note that I never said Escobar will be better than J.J., just that he should be a good solution. Take the names and the history out of it. If you are offered the choice between a player with +15 run defense and a .710 OPS for $400k and 6 years of security or a player with +5 run defense and a .810 OPS for $15 million over 5 years, you should take the former every single time. That extra $15 million can go towards adding another three win player, which is pretty significant. The only way you consider trading Escobar to lock in Hardy is if you believe Hardy is more than three wins better, and even then, Escobar still might be more attractive given that he would be under team control longer. Illustration of a 3 win difference... Taking my dirty estimates above, Hardy would be two wins better with the bat: Hardy - .340 OBP * .470 SLG * 600 PA = 95 runs Escobar - .330 OBP * .380 SLG * 600 PA = 75 runs But Hardy gives one win back with the glove and only nets one win over Escobar. Just by swapping Hardy out for Escobar and using the money saved on a free agent or retaining a player we would otherwise lose, we pick up two wins. Add in the talent we get from a Hardy trade, another win or two. (Though you should be able to pick up that win or two regardless of which player you trade.) And we extend our security at SS back out to six years. Even if you think a .710 and +15 run defense projection for Escobar is too optimistic, you would have to scale Escobar down to around a .660 OPS and defense equal to Hardy at around +5 runs before Hardy is three wins better. Lastly, if you think its safer for the club to retain an already successful major leaguer in place of an unproven prospect, and that lower risk should be valued: 1) Like I said above, Escobar's defense provides much of his value, which greatly reduces his risk of being a complete failure. 2) If Escobar is a complete failure, we can at least discard him or shift him to a backup role and target a replacement. If we pay J.J. Hardy $15 million a year and he regresses, we are basically out of luck.