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sbrylski

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Everything posted by sbrylski

  1. sbrylski
    Two subtle bits from the last episode you may have missed: When Dwight finds out MSPC is broke, he tells the client to "hold please" and slams the phone down on the receiver. "I don't care if Ryan murdered his entire family, he's like a son to me."
  2. sbrylski
    Um, how is 5 Guys not everyone's top choice?
  3. sbrylski
    Dear Me, Don't be such a wuss. -Me
  4. sbrylski
    In case you're wondering, our pitchers are currently hitting .240 / .240 / .400 / .640, which projected out to last season's pitcher ABs of 322 would net ~30.1 runs created. Last season our pitchers netted ~11.7 runs created. Rough numbers and estimations, and situational hitting (bunting) is relatively important for a pitcher, but better hitting pitchers should net a win or even two or more by themselves.
  5. sbrylski
    Amazing how much we hear everyday that would make a great t-shirt. Like your avatar.
  6. sbrylski
    This season is his 4th season in the big leagues. I'm proposing we keep him through next season, and trade him with one season left under team control.
  7. sbrylski
    First, I don't think this will continue for the whole first half. I still expect us to find our way into a wildcard race, and if deemed a strong enough contender, Salome+ heads to a AL team for a Halladay type. Second, I don't think they would trade both players; I expect us to get another season out of Prince Fielder. It doesn't appear the organization is near moving Gamel off of 3B, and I think they'll want to give him a year at 3B in the big leagues before they would move him, a la Braun. That would mean Prince would stay at 1B for one more season and be traded the following offseason. As long as Escobar is hitting okay (mid-.700's OPS or better), I could see Hardy being traded.
  8. sbrylski
    Josh, how common is it for players (particularly pitchers) to insure against injury? Are there quite a few pitchers who insure their arms, or only a handful of the really good ones, or almost none at all? Would that be something a player would wait to do, if at all, until they are in the big leagues?
  9. sbrylski
    Translated tools for sabermetricians: High HR/FB Low O-Swing% SB/(SB+CS) > .7 High UZR Good Arm
  10. sbrylski
    Let's see. According to wikipedia, Baltimore has a population of 637,555, and not only that, but they have to compete with the Nationals fans of Washington D.C. so their market is very limited. So the answer to that question would be THIS universe, although I'm not sure there is more than one. I'll give Copernicus a call and check that one out for you. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore EDIT: I'll put the link there to be in compliance with the bf.net guidelines. I believe current theory states there are an infinite number of universes with 11 dimensions each.
  11. sbrylski
    Those jerseys are awesome. Love the Wisconsin script.
  12. sbrylski
    Yeah, his about me section says seventh grade. It also says his favorite hobby is watching trains.
  13. sbrylski
    Great writeup. Some of my own predictions: Disappointment of the Year: JJ Hardy - .270 / .330 / .460 / .790 Still not a bad line, but I think Brewer fans are, in general, expecting too much from Hardy. Breakout of the Year: Rickie Weeks - .270 / .380 / .480 / .860 And slightly better but still not very good defense. Overall: 87-75 I think I'm definitely being optimistic, counting on no major injuries. I think Hart will bounce back to acceptable, Braun will about repeat last year, and Fielder will step it up slightly. Offense should be a little better than last season. Pitching will be all over the place. Gallardo will be great, but the rest of the staff will have great months and will have horrid months. Overall, slightly worse pitching than last season. Lastly, I'll predict we add a pitcher at the deadline again, but someone much more middle of the road.
  14. sbrylski
    I hadn't, but vacation message is clear.
  15. sbrylski
    Happened to me two days ago on Yahoo. When I changed my password, Yahoo gave me a message saying to make sure I update [the spam company] of my password change or else they won't have access to my account to view, override data, or send emails with my address. I'll get right on that, Yahoo. I also changed my bank and paypal passwords. They weren't identical, but similar.
  16. sbrylski
    Anyone else catch this, or am I the only loser who caught this error? We actually had a thread on this about a year and a half ago. So, no.
  17. sbrylski
    I think the premise is to not bring him into that role until mid-June or later so he can work on his defense and make any other adjustments to his swing he might need. In that case he wouldn't reach free agency or arbitration any earlier than if we kept him down until 2010 because his time in 2009 wouldn't count as a full season. We'll still have three full seasons with him at pre-arbitration salary.
  18. sbrylski
    I am not sure if you are being surly here -- I didn't mean to be a smartass -- perhaps I didn't understand your statement. Glad you didn't mean it, but that's the way it came across. We'll move past it... He could have drawn the Phillies more than the Nats... on the road, and the Nats more than the Phils at home. Isn't it safer to assume that over the course of his five year career that this has balanced out? To make another analogy, you could say of a 1.000 OPS hitter that its possible he only faced the Glendon Rusch's of the world every time.
  19. sbrylski
    If this theory holds true in reality, I'm all for it. In baseball you only need to win three out of every five and you're looking at 97 wins. If "giving" away one game creates more favorable matchups in the next 3 or 4 games then I see little fault in it. As Russ's mini-study apparently supports, the effects will cancel each other out. If you're a .600 team, you are going to win 60% of your games if your odds of winning are 0%/0%/100%/100%/100% or 60%/60%/60%/60%/60% over each set of 5 games.
  20. sbrylski
    Every pitcher should profile well in an extreme pitcher's park. Thanks for the tip. If Bush pitched worse at every NL park across the board than perhaps Every single split must agree? Even 7 inning samples? If a player has a 1.000 OPS but a .700 OPS verse LHP with 1 out, does that make any conclusion inconclusive? -- My guess it's just a weird split by getting pounded by the Phillies or Cubs on the road. If Bush had a 2IP 6ER appearance in MP, it would take a lot of time to absorb it. Why would a 2 inning appearance on the road would take more time to be canceled out in the composite road sample than it would in the home sample? HOME AWAY PFruns ---- ---- ------ 2004 2.77 4.73 +12.8% 2005 4.95 4.04 + 3.9% 2006 3.53 5.38 + 0.4% 2007 4.26 6.14 + 1.1% 2008 3.50 5.14 - 5.5% Career 3.82 5.18 +2.54% All but one year he's played in a slightly offensive park, and all but one year he's preformed much worse on the road despite that.
  21. sbrylski
    Doing some quick and dirty estimates, I think it matters little who starting pitchers end up getting matched up with. I had 2 pretend teams with averag eoffenses. Team one had a 3.5 ERA pitcher in game 1 and a 5.5 ERA pitcher for game 2. Team 2 had a 3.5 ERA pitcher and a 5.5 ERA pitcher to slot.. It pretty much didn't matter who pitched first. That mini-study misses the point. We want to know the psychological and situational effects that may make a pitcher better or worse when faced with the opposing team's #1 pitcher. Whether there's merit to that hurting some people (or helping), I don't know, but this study definitely doesn't show it. Looking at a handful of pitchers and comparing their ERA's when they are matched up against varying levels of opposing pitchers would give a better conclusion. Allao, I question the relevance of Bush's home/road split. That's the kind of stuff gamblers latch onto but I think you can always find odd splits. If anything, I'd think Miller Park would be bad for Bush, as it gives up an above average number of HRs and Bush is a flyball pitcher. If Miller is an average offensive park, and Bush preforms better there than at a composite of all the other road parks (which should also be equal to an average park), doesn't that point to Bush doing better at home for psychological/comfort/etc. reasons? I think its somewhat relevant. That said, he should profile well into SF with it being a pitchers park.
  22. sbrylski
    Will Startup is a pretty darn good baseball name... But why? Is it like, "He will start up..." Start up what? My car? I just don't get it. Maybe I'm an idiot though.
  23. sbrylski
    I envy morning people. I get nothing done during the day, because it starts so late. How can I become a morning person? My first thought was to set my alarm as a great rock song with a relatively gradual buildup. Like: I figure I'll be up and ready to go in ~30 seconds with that one. Any other songs might work? Or any other, hopefully better, ideas on becoming a morning person?
  24. sbrylski
    I am still absolutely baffled how Will Startup won last year. I have to be missing something major. I mean, I seriously considered him one of the worst, most boring entries in the entire bracket. Yet he won. How can my opinion be 180 degrees different than seemingly everyone else?
  25. sbrylski
    IF we could get Hardy to accept a 3(+) year deal, I'd include Escobar and maybe a few mid level arms. We'd be very competitive the next few years. Adding nearly $30 million in payroll, we'd better be very competitive. Its just not happening, I don't believe we can take on Peavey and extend Hardy, which is pretty much a must if Escobar leaving the org.
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