MNBrew

The idea of Crawford and Kazmir, no matter the degree of Kazmir's purported slippage up to this point, makes some good sense to me. There's a flaw in your logic, nate82, or perhaps just an oversight: perennial slugger Carlos Pena is an All-Star 1B for the Rays right now, so moving Gamel to 1B isn't a likely move if this were to all go down.

The Brewers, as crappy as they've played all July, are still only 4 games out. They're not out of it. In a vacuum, I see the logic of the question. Better starting pitching is the whole key to this team improving. If that happens, they can be serious contenders in the NL Central. Besides, each of the guys named in the initial post is needed for important reasons so this year doesn't amount to a complete collapse: - Ideally, I'd love to see Hoffman back on this team next year. The last thing we need is to start blowing the limited number of 9th inning leads we actually do end up with lately. - Trade Looper? He's the type of average-ish pitcher we were just trying to acquire, not give up. This team needs more pitching, not less. Cripes, I don't want Claudio Vargas in the rotation unless it's for Suppan! - Kendall's not paid too much, and if you've paid any attention at all to how the Brewers feel about him, you know he's not going anywhere. We just have to continue to accept that his value to the team is in everything BUT his offense.

I agree with you that it's hardly over yet. A May-like stretch could happen again (though it would seem more like a miracle at this point). But I disagree with your main point. I think Melvin did all he could -- both now and back in the winter -- without doing something most would consider foolish in the long run: 1. The "bare cupboard" situation re: upper level prospects not named Escobar or Gamel, combined with the serious dearth of real pitching prospects above A-ball, was foreseen last year and has turned out as projected. You can only do so much when you have limited resources & assets. 2. Just because you have money to spend doesn't make you everyone's desired destination. You can't MAKE good FAs come play for your team. Melvin was out there working hard to land good pitching. The Brewers just lost out. And it happened right after their first playoff appearance in a quarter of a century -- which, along with plenty of young talent, theoretically should help you appear to be a strong team now and in the next few years. The factors were there. The Brewers just lost out. That's not Doug Melvin's fault.

I'm entering this discussion quite late, but I tend to side with Ajay. OPS is a solid, useful stat, but I can't buy into as a perfectly accurate gauge of the degree to which someone is a "good" hitter because OPS is so skewed by power. Take a screwy but legit example like Tony Gwynn (Sr.) & Russell Branyan: .847 career OPS for Gwynn vs. .826 for Branyan. Branyan gets a lotta love on this site, but could you realistically argue that Branyan's almost as good a hitter as Sr. Gwynn because they're only 21 pts. apart for career OPS? I have a feeling that plenty of OPS-biased folks could almost start believing that foolish notion to be true. With the '08 Brewers' feast-or-famine nature, the feast periods were amazing, but the famines were compounded to high levels of ugliness by having so many all-or-nothing hitters going cold for long stretches at the same time. A greater variety to the makeup of the lineup MAY have given the Brewers a better chance. In fact, I'd contend that if you could combine this year's hitters' performances with last year's rotations' performances, that combination well may have the Brewers comfortably atop the NL Central. The better contact & better OBP of this year's team would've helped last year's team greatly. Reverting to the original topic of the thread, I don't think you can blame too much of this mess on Doug Melvin. Most of the pitchers (especially!) just aren't playing up to their abilities. Hitters with last names starting with H are having off years. There are plenty of positives this team has going for it. Take, for instance, that now with Lopez, there are really 5 .300 hitters on this team (Lopez, Counsell, Braun, Fielder, & McGehee). Melvin was working darn hard to get good FA pitchers to come to Milwaukee. He did get Hoffman (and how much worse would the record be now if it weren't for him!). CC & Burnett took NYYankee money. Randy Johnson wanted to pitch in CA. Smoltz was coming off an injury and wanted optimal odds to get another ring, so took Boston's deal. Sheets expected an extension to be offered in ST of '08, was upset that it wasn't offered, and had already determined that there was no way he was returning to the Brewers -- and that was before he was injured -- then had surgery and still stuck the Brewers with the tab. . . . I can't remember who else was out there. The fact is, Melvin & the Brewers were making solid trade efforts over the past few weeks and in the offseason. Having money to spend or good assets doesn't assure a logical match or that the best FA fits will come to your team. Sure, the Brewers do have the goods to net Halladay. But it's not just what you get, but also what you have to give up to get it, that needs to be considered. You can't gut your whole organization for possibly only 2 months of a stud pitcher (w/ a trade & w/o an extension, Halladay may well exercise his right to FA THIS YEAR!) in multiple years since the cupboard isn't as plentiful as it was last year this time. I really don't think I'm slurpin' hard on the Kool-Aid. There are ideals and then there are realities. Last year those July player acquisition ideals became the reality and still only barely paid off with a playoff spot. You need to be optimistic yet realistic about your present, constantly aggressive about how to improve the team, and still protective of your future. I do trust Doug Melvin, and will continue to do so as long as, short of extreme turnarounds, Suppan & Hall aren't here past the ends of 2010.

For anyone who hangs their hats on OPS, this is already a skewed comparison because Mauer has never been remotely considered a power hitter, per se, before this year, but has always been a far better major league hitting prospect.

You don't have to buy it. But the 26-11 stretch (or whatever those great numbers were) was not a total mirage, either. The team is just plain average . . . . It has the potentially to be not only devastatingly good, but also this putrid (19-30 since June 1st, as you point out). It just seems they're this horrible -- and rightly so -- since they're playing bad enough to easily lose 2 out of every 3 games right now. All that said, emotionally, I'm right on the ledge, too, because 85% of everything I see about the pitching staff (Yo & Hoffman being the exceptions for the most part) tell me the sky is falling -- quite hard & quite fast!

They weren't that good, but they also sure aren't this bad. It sure is a heinously ugly stretch, though. At some point it will end and they'll play better. Hopefully the season won't be lost by the time that happens. Jeff Suppan, however, truly is this bad. He is an abomination and a complete embarrassment. Sheesh! The scariest thing about Suppan, however, is that there may be no one on the team or in the system who can pitch any better right now -- not the way it's been going, anyway, although I'd sure take my chances with Dillard, with whom the results may be the same but at least the cost is only a fraction. The notion of trading Hoffman, however, is totally for the birds. This team is not without plenty of positives. Few of those positives reside on the pitching staff. Why trade the best pitcher on the staff who also fills one of the toughest spots? I've spoken out on the excess I believe Cameron's contract to be. However, I'd gladly keep Cameron with little complaint if the Crew weren't afflicted by Hall's & especially Suppan's disastrous contracts.

Maybe because he was promoted to Milwaukee? Just hoping... On the Nashville Sounds roster page, all Brewers AAA players in question are still listed. (Ditto for the players at other levels, too.) On their individual player/stat pages, they're all still shown as having "Active" status for Nashville. (Ditto again.) Not that I can explain the missing affiliation thing, but I just can't get worked up about that one thing yet. Half the minor leaguers named Escobar (milb.com search: last name of "Escobar") don't show a team affiliation. I doubt they're all on the verge of being traded.

At some point, if the Crew's going to make a move, you need to trade from strength to fill a need. The Brewers (at least theoretically) have plenty of hitting. They need pitching help in a big way -- and Seattle has it to spare. You have to give to get. The best position the Brewers can be in is to have both Hardy & Escobar. Eventually they need to commit to one of them at SS for at least the next few years. With Lopez in town, and if he stays, the Crew could have an IF next year of Fielder-Weeks-Escobar-Gamel starting, and Lopez & Counsell on the bench -- with Counsell & especially Lopez ready to take over as a regular at any position other than 1B. Or Escobar could still be in AAA if needed since I didn't even remember yet about McGehee until this sentence. OR you subtract Escobar & add Hardy into that if Escobar's the one who's traded. I could see Hardy & a B-prospect to Seattle for Washburn & Morrow & a 3rd pitcher. For all the valid pros & cons, I think that just may be a decent deal.

JB12, thanks for addressing the speed/contact combo. For a team to be pretty well-balanced, you need a variety of positive skill combinations. Escobar brings something none of the other current Brewers do. Deep stats can shed lots of light. Getting so deep into deep stats can get to the point of ignoring or denying the obvious. In any case, no matter how you slice it, the Brewers seem to have potentially quite a good future at SS for the next half decade. We just don't know which of these 2 guys it'll be. I'm all in favor of whichever combination makes the Brewers better overall, whether it's Hardy at SS & the pitcher that trading Escobar helps us to get, or Escobar at SS & the pitcher that trading Hardy helps us to get. Trading Hardy would also increase payroll flexibility. But that also is an essential element in the mix I assert in the last sentence above.

Bedard & Washburn becoming FAs after '09 vs. Hardy after '10 . . . it's one year of difference and quite immediate, all in all, so it's not like Hardy's "under control" for 3-4 more years or something like that. (Sorry, added thought after originally finishing the post.) You can't always rely on this strategy -- yeah, it should be a good idea, but you can totally get burned. Take our favorite Brew Crew last winter: Everyone was dead sure that CC & Sheets -- 2 of the best FA pitchers on the market -- would net us 2 first round & 2 sandwich picks. What do we have to show for the "take the picks" approach? A 2nd round pick & a sandwich. If you get the picks & they turn out to be duds, you lost an All-Star caliber SS for nothing. My point? Simply that waiting for the picks isn't always the best approach. Sometimes you're far better off getting proven players instead. The key is to make the right moves in the right situations, and there's no perfect way to know that until after the fact. Let's not forget that Hardy was pure crap at nearly Enrique Cruz-like proportions at the plate the first 1/2 of his rookie year. Escobar's hitting nearly .300 in AAA, which Hardy certainly can't ever lay claim to having done. Of course, at that time the Brewers could afford to let Hardy play. Hardy's turned out quite well. On the other hand, his career OBP is .324, and while the power numbers sure prop up his OPS, the fact is that the guy just plain doesn't get on base consistently enough. Overall, on a smaller market team like the Brewers, over time you have to keep breaking in young players to replace traded/lost players and you'll always have some semblance of a veteran/youngster balance. You have to keep the farm system well-stocked. But a perpetual all-youth approach sooner or later will backfire, and that'll be all the more painful when depreciated assets can't net you the roster band-aids & fix-'er-uppers needed to avoid total major league disaster. IF the Brewers' grand plan is to trade Hardy, they need to do it while his value is high. (A hot streak over the next 2 weeks would really help.) If the plan is to trade Escobar, he alone isn't going to bring this year's equivalent of Sabathia to this team.

Huh? Lose Hardy, gain TWO starting pitchers Bedard & Washburn. In other words, lose one starter with a hugely promising prospect about ready to jump in (with a vet like Counsell ready to spell Escobar as needed), gain two going-well-this-year starting pitchers (one of the Brewers' definitely inconsistent areas). I see the pros & cons each way, and I'd still be hesitant to move Hardy. One thing you definitely DON'T want to see the Crew do is to hang onto assets to the point of waiting too long to make a move, a la Bill Hall. While Hardy's been much better in previous years, it's still July 17th already and the guy's still only hitting .235 with a Marquis Grissom-like OBP. Ouch. And Hardy's been RISP-challenged at times even when he's been hitting better. Escobar couldn't do much worse. If you could either get the M's to include Morrow and maybe take on Suppan to even out some of the salaries, you'd have to give that strong consideration, even if we had to include a B-prospect in the deal, too. Of course, the likelihood of this still would seem scant at best since it's only a blogger's idea and not a media rumor.

You're missing the forest for the trees. I don't want Brady Clark, thank you. Yes, I've watched him play. And Podsednik. And Sanchez. And Devon White...... and Rick Manning, and all the way back to Gorman Thomas. Using Hunter's big FA contract from 2 years ago is an absurd comparison. No above-average FA now will make anything near that. I know Cameron's stats. I like his character, leadership, and defense. For what he does the 4-plus months of the year he's a fairly invisible, high-K-rate windmill at the plate, the other nearly-2-months he's producing, he's not worth $10M/yr. Cite all the stats you want. He's walking more but he strikes out a ton and his BA isn't very good. His OPS is inflated due to power numbers. The fact is, this team doesn't hit well in RISP situations and Cameron's guilty a lot lately. This team strikes out too much and Cameron's a huge culprit. This team needs PAYROLL FLEXIBILITY and doling out $10+M/yr. to multiple non-stars creates significant problems on any team with normal non-East Coast payroll limitations. Look, we can disagree. I actually do like so much of what Cameron brings. I don't see moving him easily because there's no suitable replacement anyway. Suppan & Hall are far bigger wastes of payroll & roster spots. If somehow the Brewers could rid themselves of those 2 contracts, Cameron's wouldn't seem like a problem at all by comparison.

I see two main problems that need solutions: 1. Poor production 2. Ugly, disproportionate salaries The combination of these two elements points to our biggest roster "criminals": Hall, Suppan, & Cameron. - Sure, Cameron's hot streaks are amazingly. But the other 4+ months of the season, he's worthless at the plate. - Suppan's not any worse than Looper. But since Suppan's making $12M and Looper's making $5M, Suppan's by far the bigger problem. Solutions: - Have a shrewd long-term plan. - Keep developing top-level prospects, either to take over roster/playing spots or to use as attractive assets. - Improve the rotation. Without another legit #1 or #2 starter, it'll take catching lightning in a bottle to make the playoffs. Yost's '07 approach is a reminder that ignoring your weaknesses and relying on other to fail is a recipe for disappointment. - Don't create an equal number of other problems when solving one problem. - Don't wait too long to trade higher-risk assets (Hall & Capuano, for instance). I don't think trading Hart's a good idea because they have no suitable replacement. I like Hardy but sooner or later you have to either play Escobar or use him as a tradeable asset. If Halladay is really fully locked in through '10, then he's an asset worth making a serious play for. This current rotation won't get us back to the playoffs. The continued abundance of high K-rate on the roster needs to be fixed. Hall being on the bench helps. Cameron, Hardy?. . . .

As valuable as Cameron can be, these 1-2 month stretches where his plate contributions seem near-nonexistent get to be so painful to endure. I like him and much of his game never slumps. The slumps at the plate, however. . . . whoa boy. If the Crew really is looking for some payroll flexibility, I could see them waiting 'til he gets in the middle of his next (hopefully) hot streak, then trading him for a decent return, whatever that might mean. No, I don't have a plan for who would be better in CF or a good long-term solution. This isn't a completely thought-out plan. Gerut is serviceable and isn't as bad as he's shown this year (hunch) in such minimal playing time. And I doubt his production with regular play is a whole lot different than Cameron's. So if trading Cameron gave them enough flexibility to fill another glaring hole, too, I think it could be a half-decent idea. Then again, he seems to be a core piece of the clubhouse chemistry, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers took the good with the bad with him and left that position alone.

Given the Brewers' & Twins' records coming into the weekend series, you probably would've expected the opposite of what happened.... Having watched all 3 games including Sunday's in person, I'd like to assert that the difference mainly came down to pitching: Total pitching line for the 3 games: Twins: 27 IP, 24 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 18 K, 2 HR Brewers: 24 IP, 28 H, 23R, 21 ER, 12 BB, 12 K, 7 HR That's skewed to a little more even since the Twins only managed 6 hits on Sunday, although 3 of those were the HRs that drove in all 6 runs. Also, extra base hits + OBP really favored the Twins: Twins: 1 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR (39 TB on 11 extra base hits, + 17 singles & 12 walks) Brewers: 6 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR (20 TB on 8 extra base hits, + 16 singles & 4 walks) In short, - the Twins made more pitches when they needed to, - the Brewers had a much harder time throwing strikes, - the Twins' offense was much more timely and opportunistic, - the Brewers just didn't put together that many good at-bats and didn't maximize the few good opportunities they really had. Finally, only 2 Brewers relievers gave up any runs at all over the weekend (Swindle & Stetter), which indicates the greater problem was poorer outings by the starters, which also meant the Brewers were playing from behind practically all weekend.

Couple thoughts: - Cuddyer is a very solid hitter who's also been having an extremely hot week. His career hitting trend is upward, but that's gonna look skewed by last year when he fought injuries (that took most of the thump out of his bat) all year long until he was finally lost for an extended time. - Crede's BA has been a bit low but he's otherwise having a pretty good hitting season, coming around from a rather slow start. He was also a legit All-Star last year. - Crede & Cuddyer aren't world-beater-type hitters, but they're hardly chumps. - Scott Baker was the Twins' best starter last year who's off to a slow start, showing some of the ups and downs many young pitchers will show. In that sense, he's a more experienced, advanced, and successful RH version of Manny Parra. - The Brewers' bats just stunk this weekend, the starters didn't pitch nearly well enough to win, the Twins' pitchers weren't walking Brewers like we've gotten used to happening this year, and Macha going into histrionics to get a call re-reversed wasn't going to "jolt" them out of that. Macha's even-keeled approach probably sends a better message about how to handle adversity than throwing a Martin-Weaver-Piniella "Tantrum for the Ages." Macha was going to do the team more good by remaining in the dugout and doing his job trying to lead the team out of a badly played weekend series (see: Hall not covering 3B on Saturday, for instance). No managerial tantrum would've changed the fact that Stetter pitched badly and laid a meat pitch right in Morneau's wheelhouse. - Based on these and the other points discussed above, the original premise of the thread seems like the author is reaching.

Sure would've been better for the Crew at the time if Mike Young had been the one ejected instead of Yount. At one point didn't Young have a near-Nelson type of BA going for a good stretch? As good as he'd been in Baltimore, he was horrible as a Brewer.

Taking the boys on Sunday (two kids-under-14 tix free for each adult ticket bought every Sunday in the upper deck GA and the lower LF Home Run Porch). Might get there Saturday, too. I'm walking up to the ticket window & going for the cheapest seats (life on a tight budget). It's nice living less than 10 minutes from the Dome.

They wore the Pilots unis in a Turn Back the Clock game in MN against the Twins. I don't remember if they were the plain gray flannels or the powder blue, though I'm thinking it was the blue. It was the first game I ever took my wife to, so I'm thinking it was the summer of 2000. But I don't know that they've ever worn Pilots unis at home. Edit: The more I think about it, the more I think it was the grays. And I think Alex Diaz played in the OF that day and made a good catch. Off to baseball-reference.com to see if my memory's on track. Edit II: Oops. Wrong year for the Alex Diaz recollection. But I was right: June 10th, 2000. Jimmy Haynes started & went 7 in the Brewers' 5-3 win. (I don't miss Haynes.) Twins & Brewers both wore 1969 replica unis.

I've noted this in other threads, but I was at that game that Saturday night sitting right behind home plate (yellow Summerfest t-shirt) with the Indians guy who charted pitches. That game was unbelievable. The pitch-charting guy (everyone called him "Dude") kept shaking his head about how Odell's slider was breaking at least 18" all night long. Cleveland 3B coach Johnny Goryl was a member of my folks' church and I stayed the weekend with him. Crew won Saturday and Sunday. I don't remember Friday's outcome because I didn't get to the game 'til the 6th inning. Johnny got me fully autographed team balls from both the Indians and Treb's Brewers that I still have and cherish. Memories of a weekend like that never go away! I'd been at the game the previous Monday against Toronto when Higuera was pulled with a sore something after the 1st inning. Odell came in and pitched 5 great innings, and when Teddy's arm didn't rebound well enough, Odell was told he'd start that Saturday against the Tribe. The Crew won. I think Fielder started at 1B, then McGriff came in for him later and hit a huge HR not far from where we were sitting in right-center.

Coffey has a non-negative chin, though. It still would've been nice to have had David Weathers on the Brewers over all these years since he netted us . . . Ruben Quevedo. Ouch. That wasn't a good one, Dean.

After he was DFA'd, he was still in Athletics' camp as an NRI. From the transactions page on the A's website: 3/16/09 Reassigned RHP Kevin Cameron, 2B Joe Dillon and RHPs James Simmons and Jerome Williams to Minor League camp. Then I looked under their minor league affiliates and then did a search for him on milb.com and found he's on AAA Sacramento's reserve list. LINK Maybe that means he's retired - not sure.

Speaking of Dave Nelson (kind of), was #14 a number ever worn by Dave Nilsson? I'm remembering #13, #11, and finally #7. Maybe it's just a numerical proximity thing. It'd be a real coup if you could get Dion James and Jim Paciorek to autograph that jersey, too. Edit: How can I forget my favorite underdog of the late '80s and another #14, Jim Adduci!

When I think of #52, I still have lasting visions of Josias Manzanillo.