MNBrew

This is quite simply not how it works, at least if your intent is to preserve ....I only meant that loosely, simplistically, generally, whatever.

I know a lot of people here aren't big fans of base stealing, but this is a good point. Escobar's wOBA (sort of like a weighted OPS, but takes base stealing into consideration) the past two seasons have been higher than Hardy's career, even though Hardy's OPS has been better.Add Escobar's net of 32 additional bases (42 SB - 10 CS) to his total bases and what do you get? A .484 SLG and a .837 OPS. Not bad!

I think this notion is more wishful thinking than anything. Hardy hasn't even been put through waivers per Melvin's quotes 2 days ago. You might get to claim a high-priced pitcher on waivers, but if he's any good, he's going to get pulled back -- or at least not made available for just Hall & Hardy. MLBTR cites an Olney Insider column listing some possible trade destinations for Hall. Can anyone with Insider at least report who those teams are?

Branyan didn't demand a starting job -- he had no leverage to -- but he knew he had better odds to get PT in Seattle than in Milwaukee. The Brewers' IF depth has only improved -- even w/o Hall & the injured Weeks -- with the play of McGehee and the acquisitions of Lopez & Catalanotto (even though Cat's seemingly more useful an as OF). Had Branyan signed here again, it's doubtful he would've had the chance to play so much and get on the roll that's enabled him to outproduce the 2 bench players and one injured starter you named

Or move Randolph over to MGR and promote Don Money to be the Bench Coach. Heck, I'd just settle for the entire rotation figuring out how to pitch with serious cajones again. This business of "I was cruising along but I lost my command again and I have no idea how to regain it" is ridiculous. They seem to have become a very well-meaning but largely passive group. I hope Bosio's style provides the serious kick in the butt they seem to need. Seriously, though, I do believe these moves were needed for this team to start to have a chance. If they don't regain any semblance of killer instinct to not just put away but bury opponents, it's a total lost cause.

I also wasn't getting how bringing up Escobar now was starting his arby & FA clocks. He was on the active roster already all of last September. The clock had started. It just wasn't running again 'til Wednesday.

Whoa boy, what a day. Gone to the PGA practice round (no cell phones allowed) only to find all this out at dinner time. Black Wednesday is right, TH, and it's about time. Many thoughts (on the SS position and the thread up to now): - Glad to read less "Hardy must be getting traded" chatter after the first half-dozen pages of the thread. My brain was exploding from all that nonsense. Melvin's typically not one to "sell low." Plus, a move now only nets you a PTBNL or, at best, an albatross of a contract. Melvin wouldn't possibly settle for such a hollow return (wait 'til Hot Stove time). Never mind the fact that he hadn't even put Hardy on August waivers in the first place. - Hardy needs to get right to be a legit asset & I fully expect him to get right sooner or later. Clearly, though, after 4 months of everyday chances in the bigs, letting him try to play his way out of it in Milwaukee was no longer practical. - Escobar might do well and definitely brings different offensive elements than most of the rest of the usual lineup. . . . And if he doesn't prove he's ready, they can send him right back down. It won't matter squat re: his FA clock or potential Super-2 status even if he's in the bigs permanently starting now: Escobar won't reach arby eligibility until at least after the '12 season and FA after '15. If Hardy rebounds and re-earns the starting SS job through next year and Escobar's in AAA again to the point where he doesn't get called up 'til June or so, the FA eligibility bumps another year and arby might, too, depending on when he's called up. In short, it's hardly a losing deal. - Sooner or later and likely within the next 12 months, Escobar & Hardy are going to be competing directly for the same job OR one of them WILL have been moved. It's going to happen in some way or another. Demoting Hardy and leaving Escobar in AAA wasn't going to happen at this juncture because both of them HAVE to be playing SS to optimize their value. Escobar proved earlier in the year that moving him to 2B is a bad idea. - Hardy needed a kick in the butt and a chance to regroup. Whether a demotion to AAA or a ML benching, neither could damage his trade value much more than his crappy hitting for 4+ months this year already had. Recent JSOnline blogs had noted Hardy just looking and seeming completely lost. My ideal would be to see Hardy get clicking again, return before 9/1, reinvigorate his trade value, then be used to net some improved pitching this winter. I like Hardy a lot, but the Brewers do seem to have plenty of IF depth and options if Hardy were traded and Escobar proved in April/May/whenever that he still needed more seasoning at AAA. - Using an argument I trumpeted in the old Jenkins vs. Carlos Lee discussions, SBs essentially equate to elevating your SLG%. In Escobar's case, add his net of 32 additional bases (42 SB - 10 CS) to his total bases and what do you get? A .484 SLG and a .837 OPS. I really grooved with the posts here that have acknowledged that any number of things could come out of this (there are SO many shades of gray!), as well as that Melvin & Co. simply couldn't fail to make Hardy accountable any longer. Hooray for that prevailing sanity.

One more thought: Why would Melvin do any deal to trade Hardy right now? The return for Hardy would have to be ML-ready pitching, and I seriously doubt the sort of pitching Melvin would be after would come in the form of a PTBNL (which is what you get in the post-8/1 deals, right?).

Al, I see your logic but it's still just speculation. Context can be everything, and you know well that that can change drastically throughout the season & off-season. In other words, yours may be the conventional thinking on this site. Real life often contradicts conventional wisdom (Alex Rios, anyone?). So many folks on this site assume every young player will jump ship once they complete their 6th year. While free agency is a significant and tempting thing, it's not automatically foregone conclusion, either -- just like getting all those anticipated draft picks -- the CC & Sheets lesson all over again! Seeing how many players DIDN'T get their big payday or even jobs last winter, some players may well prefer the security their present team is offering to give them. Free agency can mean great things, but it's also a flirtation with unemployment. Anyway & to wit . . . If the Yankees are kicking butt this winter again and Boston gets squat out of its SS position the remainder of the year, Theo & Co. just may place more value on shoring up the SS position with a younger & cheaper but proven player like Hardy. And if that were to happen, it wouldn't be out of keeping for Boston then to dangle enough dollars to entice him to stick around for a good while and stabilize the position. DM's "I'm not motivated to move him" line should be taken at face value: "I'm not initiating talks, but I will listen. Your offer would have to seriously motivate me or our discussions re: Hardy will be short." Just because Escobar is knocking on the 25-man roster's door doesn't mean Hardy has to be moved for Escobar to come aboard. Also, remember what Toronto gave DM for Overbay when DM "wasn't motivated to move him."

I don't understand why so many folks are ragging on this move. After Trevor Hoffman, the cumulative innings & years of ML experience remaining in the bullpen wouldn't come close to adding up to Weathers' if the Brewers hadn't just picked up Colome & Vargas. And even then, Weathers by himself isn't terribly far behind those two totals. Like any reliever, even every Hall of Famer, Weathers blows a game here and there. But Weathers is solid and has pitched much better in his 2nd decade than his first. In the last 10 years, Weathers has only had an ERA over 4.00 once (in '04). By and large he's a much-needed upgrade in terms of performance and experience. Who do you complainers want instead? More Jorge Julio & R.J. Swindle? As a side note, it's also worth noting that before arriving here the 1st time, Weathers got totally (& somewhat unjustly) vilified by George Steinbrenner and eventually cut by the Reds mid-season (shortly after homering against the Brewers, no less). Ever since he first became a Brewer, he's been a generally effective and very reliable reliever. Bill Castro turned the guy's career totally around.

Not a good day for 1/3 of the Tampa players who are former Brewers. Looks a bit more secure for Kapler, Gross, Choate, Balfour, & Shouse (thanks to his getting a 2-yr. deal). Jury's still out on Jeff Bennett re: his Tampa performance thus far.

Yes, they're still in it. Or at least not totally out of it. Emotionally, it's easy to give up. Objectively, there are still 8 full weeks left -- nearly 2 months. Lots can happen. St. Louis & the Cubs aren't exactly running away from everyone else. And if the Brewers can get a hot streak going -- granted, a big IF -- they could put themselves right in the thick of the race.

I really like this move -- really shrewd. Several other thoughts: 1. There are still nearly 2 full months left in the season. The Brewers are hardly in the thick of it. But they're not out of it, either. The Cards are only 11 games over .500, so it's not like they're an elite team. 2. Weathers isn't glamorous, but he's quite solid, not to mention better than almost every other reliever we have whose last name isn't "Hoffman." I'd welcome the idea of picking up his 2010 option. It'd sure beat seeing more of Mike Burns, Jorge Julio, R.J. Swindle, and the '09 version of Seth McClung! We need more good pitchers, not fewer. 3. No matter where the help's coming from at this point, the higher the talent level on the team, the better. The fact that this is a talent upgrade to the pitching staff makes it even better. + Weathers, - Burns (probably?) = good upgrade. 4. The PTBNL can't be someone on the 40-man roster at this point. I doubt the Brewers put their best non-40-man guys on the list they gave to Cincy. And I also wouldn't be surprised (and I'd much prefer) to see Cincy choose the cash option. 5. Side note related to #3: If Hoffman wants to be a Brewer again next year, make it happen, DM. Hoffman's been excellent. And he sure costs a lot less than some of the other closers out there getting paid. We need more good pitchers, not fewer. Not having to find another closer would be a distinct positive going into the offseason & next year.

Isn't the waiver claim order this: same league, bottom-to-top record-wise; then the opposite league, same thing?

Sorry, flee. I was thinking of the more recent headline-grabber (for being traded to SF) than their previous one (for his no-hitter).

This idea is predicated on Cameron not coming back at a more roster-friendly salary ($5-6M-ish): As enigmatic as Delmon Young has been, I wouldn't want him. But is it worth trading a live arm like McClung plus something more (if needed) to pitching-starved MN for Michael Cuddyer? It'd likely mean other OF shuffling (Hart to CF), which would raise some obvious defensive concerns, although Cuddyer's a solid & established RF. Then just maybe that frees up a bit more $$ to land other pitching. Combine that with the rumbled Hardy-for-Harang deal, which would've helped the pitching, too, and all you'd really need is some sucker to take Suppan's contract in a deal.

It might take a Fielder to land a Crawford. But if a deal like that could help land a Kazmir, too, if I'm DM, I've gotta give that serious consideration. Burrell's showing more that he's been out for a long stretch with an injury than he's been showing age, imho. If he's not a Ray next year, Pena & Fielder can alternate between 1B & DH. (Side thought: Heck, I wonder if McClung & Balfour into the deal, too -- trade 'em for each other again. I'd take Balfour's diminished production over what McClung's done most of the year. At least you know Balfour's more likely to be nearer to the strike zone.)

While no one can be certain if Angel Salome has what it takes to be a good C defensively, now that Lawrie's moved to 2B, the last thing I want to see is the first period of any organizational depth at catching ended with any bit of haste at all. Moving Salome in any deal w/o getting catching in return will leave Lucroy as the only C worth noting in the upper minors, and it's not like he's exactly doing anything special at all in AA right now. That would leave the Brewers one tiny or stupid injury short of having absolute ZERO catching anywhere once again. I'd give serious consideration to what it might take to get Hughes from NY. Not sure what else we might get in what you propose. Unless you have the Yankees finding some sucker to take on Cano's contract, they don't exactly have a place to play Sanchez. I'd bet Hall alone might net a Snyder-type with a little cash changing hands to even things out. Some decent ideas, fleehaw. I'd think this may be the first off-season in the Melvin era where it's reached the point of trading a piece or two of the strong, homegrown (non-pitching) talent to shore up other needs (rotation!!!). Other than Braun & Fielder, there are good arguments & counters for why each member of the "core" could be the first guy to go in a deal. I heartily agree that this should be an exciting winter.

The thing with Gamel & Escobar and when they become serious candidates for starting MAY come down to the organization just deciding it's time for that to happen (obviously it's not necessarily a simultaneous thing), making the complementary moves (like trading a current player or two) AND leaving themselves with enough depth to cover themselves (Counsell/Lopez/McGehee/etc.) in case it doesn't work out optimally. It happened with Fielder. It'll happen again. I just don't know who it'll be or when.

While I don't totally agree on the dollar value of Cameron's defense or the common assertion around here that Hart's a defensive liability (note that I'm not at all suggesting he's in Cameron's league defensively), there is some degree of merit to how much of a difference Cameron's defense truly makes -- how many more outs made, how many runs actually saved, etc. The question is just how much merit. I have a hard time seeing it as $6.5M worth of value over Hart. There are some stats you can rely on, but many defensive stats ultimately are conjecture since some are hypothetical. The challenge the Brewers face lies in how to best try to put together a championship caliber team given the realistic payroll limitations that go with being Milwaukee vs. a big East/West Coast media market. Relative to the needs of this team, the question re: Mike Cameron comes down to whether or not the Brewers can afford $10M of a $90+M payroll for what he produces and brings. In other words, what's the greater need for the limited dollars available? The problem is that this isn't NY or Boston. You can't have it all, so to speak, without paying every last nickel for it, and historically the Brewers aren't a team who can do that. Something has to give somewhere. Does Cameron still bring a lot to the Brewers that they need, both on the field and in the clubhouse? Of course. However, given that Cam's not an offensive stud, and that the lineup doesn't hit for great BA and still K's too much, I could see the Brewers going a different direction in CF and using those big dollars toward more glaring needs. And then again, if Cam would sign a $5M contract for next year, maybe it's a whole different discussion.

Wow, TLB. I'm right with you. Good thread & good ideas. I waver on Cameron. I like him a lot. His OBP right now is .361 -- a nice number & huge improvement. He's walked 60x thus far. But there are negatives, too: a .255 BA & 96 K's are indeed blah at best. . . . I think there's something to what JB12 says, too. It's really all in how you look at it: There are comparative standards and there are ultimate standards.... - Comparatively speaking (TLB's take), relative to other CFs, he's producing quite well offensively. - Compared to what's normally considered good, his numbers are okay but nothing too special. Neither viewpoint is wrong. Both are right. Those who, like me, tend to get fed up w/ what Cameron produces offensively relative to the value of his $10M salary on an $80M payroll, the problem isn't how well he's doing amongst CFs. It's how he's doing relative to what's generally considered good and how often he's coming through productively. Compared to Hart, other than his OBP, their numbers are pretty similar. Many people see Hart as more expendable or a less valuable asset for generally comparable numbers even though Hart's being paid 1/3 of Cameron's salary and Hart is 9 years younger. That part I really don't get. If you traded their numbers, many would still argue that Cameron's worth what he's getting paid because of how those numbers compare to other CFs. Then again, Cameron's veteran presence & role in the clubhouse is an intangible that doesn't lend itself to quantification. I definitely won't debate Cameron's hugely better walk rate. But yeah, while Cameron presently has a SLG that's 20 pts. better than Hart's, the difference there is a mere 4 total bases in 7 fewer ABs -- that's really pretty darn close. Their BAs, HRs, & RBIs are pretty close. So . . . When it comes to assembling a roster and making a big-time run for it, you need big-time players and that means some big-time salaries. With where the Brewers' needs are, I could much more easily see keeping Hart over Cameron because the production's quite similar and the cost is (at least this year) over $6.5M less -- which leaves more room on the payroll for filling holes with studs or making huge upgrades at already decent positions. And then again . . . . you get into how big the team's "window" is, who viable replacements are, etc. . . . Now I'm dreaming out loud, but if somehow moving other players could net Carl Crawford, for instance, regardless of who ended up in CF between Hart (if not traded in a Crawford deal), Crawford, or Braun, I'd settle for a little defensive downgrade in order to land a massive offensive upgrade/threat. No clear answers. Lots of good things to consider. I see the future as half-full rather than half-empty. Lots could happen. And if nothing else, at least we're not in the organizational stage we were in the Lopes/Royster era!

DHonks, I like your logic for Perez in addition to Crawford (I like Cameron most of the time incl. for his veteran leadership, but $10M is just a lot of dough!), but I'm not a Perez believer. Maybe I've missed something along the way, but what combination of players do you see heading to TB to net us both Perez & Crawford? I could see Hart in that deal. But TB has Longoria at 3B and Bartlett at SS and Pena at 1B. They don't have a position for Escobar or Gamel at this point. I do like the IF situation you describe but would see the either-or at SS as being between Hardy & Escobar, not Hardy & Hall. And I'd still want to see Gamel in that picture, too. The two best hitting prospects of the past 3 years not already playing daily in the bigs (thus excluding Braun & Fielder) are Gamel & LaPorta. LaPorta's gone and the present roster has nothing to show for that. On top of that, I really don't think you can trade off yet another stud corner IF (OF?) with 3B being only newly owned by McGehee & Fielder being a Boras client w/ only 2 yrs. left before he can become a free agent.

Thinking more about the various options discussed, I do believe the Brewers are reaching a point where they'll have to choose who to keep for the long haul and who to flip to fill needs. - Hart + something to TB for pitching makes some sense. It makes even more sense if expanding the package can help land Crawford, too. - Not sure what the Mariners' needs will amount to, but IF Jack Z. likes Weeks THAT much AND Lopez wants to remain a Brewer, Weeks + might help land more needed pitching (Morrow?). - Hardy to Boston for pitching + something makes sense. OF: Braun, Cameron, Crawford (I know, I'm dreaming) IF: Fielder, Lopez, Escobar, McGehee (with a Brinks truck waiting in Prince's driveway for him to sign an extension -- hopefully) C: Kendall (I know, I know, but the guy's veteran glue along w/ Cameron) bench: Counsell, Hall or Iribarren, Catalanotto, backup C (hopefully Salome), + a Gerut or someone else super cheap

Any time spent on a ML roster = ML service time.

For all the love Rivera earned last year and in '06, his offensive production in comparable PT this year is putrid. I like the guy, and I do think there is something to be said for continuity at the backup catcher spot. But sooner or later Salome AND Lucroy need to occupy a season-long major league roster spot.