MNBrew

I remain torn on Arrieta. He wasn't Superman last year but was still pretty good and ended strong. He may (or may not) be better than Darvish, but he's probably better than Lynn or Cobb, plus he's a fitness freak so may well have better than average health going for him. . . . And on the other hand, will he prove over the life of his upcoming contract to be worth the very large figure he likely signs for, and why would the Cubs, who could use another strong SP, seemingly make so little effort (at least that we know of) to re-sign him? There are some things that suggest he just might be the most productive FA SP on this winter's market (removing cost/value from the equation, just on-field performance). Yet other things could be pointing to his career being on the downslope. It's easy to play this safe and walk away, letting others take on this risk. Yet Arrieta could end up being the guy who helps put a very good team over the top. Maybe Stearns isn't so torn. I'd love to know what he's thinking right now re: the whole available SP landscape. Just knowing who he's checked in on wouldn't matter much since he's apparently checked in on every available SP with a pulse.

Jimmy Hoffa! Thanks, Geraldo Rivera, for nothing.

My thoughts exactly. Great insights on a few levels, HH19. Thanks!

So HH19 is Ozzy Osbourne?

TB's rumored ask for Archer is far more valuable than what they're getting in this proposal, and they're also giving up 3 additional players. Clancy, your trade ideas are always enjoyable to read. But I have a hard time seeing this one as terribly plausible.

The said that last week too. I'm more curious to see if any SP boycott. He said that last week referring to the following Monday, meaning tomorrow.

Wow, that's steep! Santana's a strong commodity. Burnes is prospect gold at the moment and rightly so, yet also understandably the "gotta give something to get something" piece. Phillips AND Peralta seems way too much. Swapping Broxton for Phillips would make it more palatable, though I think I'd also rather lose two of Lemons, Supak, & Ponce over Peralta.

Maybe it's not relevant, but since it keeps coming up over time regarding Braun... Wasn't Grandal another one of the players suspended for his connections with Balco?

January 21st: Jerry Crasnick said the Brewers had a trade brewing. HighHeat came out and his source said it was with an AL team and I believe his source also said there were contract issues. HighHeat shared his inside scoop after Crasnick's post. When things started slowing down, HighHeat laid out more clearly than anyone else why the trade died: the other team wanted the Brewers to take on more contract without sufficient trade compensation. HighHeat saying that Trade A had been nixed and they were changing directions in regards to the trade noted above, NOT the Yelich trade, and he said that BEFORE the Mish thing came out. THEN HighHeat said his source said the Marlins offer was legit, eventually that the Brewers upped their offer, that the Marlins' call to other potential trade partners was because they had a darn good offer that would have to be beat not to happen, and, finally, that the deal was in the Marlins' hands, yet he was rock solid sure it would indeed go down. HighHeat also relayed inside info on what was going on with regard to Darvish considering the Brewers' offer before any of that was otherwise known. I wonder if you're generalizing based on loose recollections of the order of events. I think that if you went back through all zillion pages of this thread, you'd find that he was spot on with the insights he shared. He was also very clear about when he was offering his opinion vs. inside scoops from his guy.

Our fear of "lost" leverage and the team's reality often don't jive. 3 examples off the top of my head: 1. Melvin "wasn't motivated to move Sexson" even though it was pretty much a given he was a goner. Melvin theoretically had little leverage but got quantity over quality, but still 6 major leaguers for a total crap team. 2. A couple years later, Melvin "wasn't motivated to move Overbay" even though the whole world knew Prince Fielder should/would be the Brewers' starting 1B come Opening Day, then pulled off a very solid return for Overbay anyway in spite of everyone knowing he pretty well was set on moving Overbay. 3. Ditto for the Greinke exit trade. In theory, no trade was required. But reality necessitated that a trade be made, so "everyone knew" Melvin's lack of leverage, per se. The return seemed good at the time, although only Segura amounted to anything. While trading Santana seems inevitable, he doesn't literally have to be traded. Phillips has options remaining (Santana may, too). I think Broxton's out of options, but even if he is, he'd still likely stick as the 5th OF behind Santana & the 3 starters..... or as the 4th OF with Santana starting over whomever got injured (Braun?)... Of course, the other side of the coin is that the Brewers wouldn't be fools enough to let an asset like Santana lose value by rotting on the bench. But for all the leverage they may have lost, we've got to expect that they'll also capitalize on any leverage they may have, too.

We have 3 strong 2B prospects. They can't all play in MIL at once. We'll see if any other deals happen that alter the cumulative picture.

HH19, I'm hoping you're right, too. This is cool stuff. Waiting for this to unfold now is as difficult now as it was when I was 7 years old, waiting on Christmas Eve for it finally to be the 25th. Tick... tick... tick...

He said earlier today that it could be a week. Could be blowing smoke. Who really knows? When he said the Brewers upped their offer, the first thing I thought was that DS doesn't just up an offer (as with most GMs)... if they increase the offer, they ask for more back. Could be more pieces involved if the Brewers ask for Barraclagh or Straily. Might take a while to straighten out. Also could be a third team involved. Brewers could be taking on Castro, but with the intent of moving him to another team. That goes back to the team A scenario that fell apart because of how much salary to take on. Brewers could be coming back and saying, "We'll take on more of that contract, but you take Castro back." Castro was a 2 bWAR player last year... better to get that back than just send MIL cash. Had Jungmann still been here, I don't think he would have minded being traded to Miami at all. I don't think Broxton would mind either - knowing he has a MLB roster spot as opposed to possibly being sent to the minors or shuttled back and forth. No state income tax, Miami Beach... not a terrible place to be, especially when you're *only* making $500K/year. If you'll recall from his little legal fiasco last offseason, Broxton's from Tampa, so he's also a FL kid. Tampa & Miami are different worlds, but Miami's a whole lot closer to Tampa than Milwaukee is. I trust HH19. His scoops reflect his insider's take on the Brewers' FO's perspectives/hopes/attempts. Why would he risk discrediting himself by throwing out lots of BS? To Brew4U's comments, if this stuff doesn't happen, it's no reflection at all on HH19 but of either of the Brewers' choices or the choices of the other team(s) or FAs involved in these scenarios. It takes 2 to tango and we know the Brewers are trying to dance. If Miami nixes this deal or trades Yelich to another team, that's Miami's decision, not Stearns', and therefore doesn't undermine or discredit HH19 in the least.

I may be wrong, but I have my doubts that it'd be a 5-for-1 unless at least the last 2 guys of the 5 are lower-level lottery tickets (Lind-trade sort of return). I expect a price with some pain but not all 5 coming from our Top 30.

Groundball heavy pitchers that don't strike a lot of hitters out just don't have a ton of trade value. Right. That's why it took Lucroy and Jeffress to net 3 of Texas' top 10 guys (Cordell was Top 10 by the time he was the PTBNL). I get the trade value point. That said, Jeffress was a top-level guy at getting needed 9th inning outs for the time he was in that role, which is what Chapman does and nothing like what Hughes was doing at the time. As the Brewers' closer, Jeffress had 35 Ks in 44.2 IP. That's not elite but 7.1 per 9 is hardly "not a lot."

Knebel was Melvin, Broxton was Stearns Right. I forgot Aramis Ramirez only netted Barrios and that the Rogers trade with PIT was Stearns' move. Anyway, with that correction, the length of each list is unchanged.

Jeffress was the closer at the time and pitching very well during his time in that role. Maybe Jeffress is closer to Hughes now, but he was definitely closer on the spectrum to Chapman than Hughes at the time the TX trade went down.

Straying here, but in terms of commodities and Stearns vs. Melvin, there's something to be said to looking at the MLB roster for context, too, not just the minors. Last year's September roster (not counting guys not currently on the 40-man, such as Wang and FAs Swarzak & Walker): Stearns acquisitions: Shaw, Sogard, Villar, Thames, Aguilar, Pina, Vogt, Anderson, Drake, Guerra, Knebel, Wilkerson, + also Bandy/Susac Melvin acquisitions: Braun, Broxton, Santana, Phillips, Arcia, Perez, Nelson, Davies, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress (2x, Stearns 1x), Suter, Williams, Woodruff, + also Lopez, Houser

Oh, so Stearns doesn't like the prospects he acquired? That's great. Praise Stearns! I think the point was just that we don't know the Brewers' internal prospect rankings. In any case, it's still true that some of our good prospects were acquired under Doug Melvin's leadership, not Stearns'. Of course, what happens going forward will show Stearns' hand somewhat. I think many of us are feeling varying combinations of excited and nervous to see what happens. Trwi7, I get your belief in the "scorched earth" rebuild. I don't believe in it to the extent you do as a necessary constant thought, but I get where you're coming from.

What if it looks like this? - Yelich deal happens. - Santana is traded for Salazar & prospects (rather than Salazar & Kipnis). - Brewers sign Walker to a respectable 2-year deal. Then I think it means this: - The offense becomes better-balanced (and LH/RH hitter ratio improves). - OF defense quotient improves. - Needed SP is acquired. - Some good prospects go but a few come in, too. - Walker solidifies 2B without blocking it long-term. Stearns would've succeeded in upgrading the roster while still being responsible to the necessary long-term philosophy of acquiring controllable young talent. We're all still waiting anxiously for this stuff to play out, but it's sure been fun the past couple days to have some seemingly legit & promising fodder to feast on.

For all the prospect build-up that's SO necessary for the Brewers' long-term organizational health, eventually there are only so many roster spots -- both on the active 25-man and the "future-minded" protection spots on the 40-man -- and you're smart to use a few prospects as trade chips for a single, larger improvement. If that's what this potential Yelich move amounts to, I can buy it -- in spite of the fact that, like many here, I'm wary of the sting. Not all the prospects will pan out. If you trade a couple before that proves to be their case, then you've used them wisely. In hindsight, the guy it hurt worst to lose in the Sabathia trade was the PTBNL (Brantley) and few would've projected him as such as opposed to 1 or more of the 3 know commodities at the time. I think of the Twins of about 15 years ago when Cuddyer & Restovich were coming up. They had piles of prospects but pretty much hung onto ALL of them too long -- definitely overplayed their hand -- and got absolutely zero out of way too many out of them, whether that was their MLB contribution or their value as a potential trade chip.

You're missing Jason Kidd becoming the new radio announcer in there as part of the mobes I thought Kidd would be the new eye-in-the-sky coach. Maybe he does both. He could from up in the booth. I don't think anyone's suggesting the Brewers are driving the MLB hot stove bus. We just heard about the potential for dominoes, which I'm sure is not unique to the Brewers. For as hopeful as we all are for transaction action, I think it's also widely understood that nothing happening is always a possibility until something actually happens.

Crasnick's original tweet: Hearing some buzz that the #Brewers are getting close to a trade. No more details at present, but they’ve been discussing outfielders with multiple clubs. Crasnick's tweet today: I had indications from a couple of places that something might be happening, but #Brewers are juggling a lot of scenarios. They've been in on Yu Darvish and Lorenzo Cain as well, and I know they've been working hard on trade possibilities. Sorry if I got people's hopes up. ... For anyone thinking Crasnick said the Brewers aren't up to something now, note the wording of each tweet. He never said a trade was definitely on or, later, definitely off. The second tweet really didn't recant anything except for the "getting close" part.

And I'll bet it's similar if not identical to what a large number of teams do. We just happened to hear someone actually about it.

Should be looking here for the real guy: