MNBrew

I completely agree with Melvin, that while teams that make a lot of moves in the winter garner a lot of press, way too often that doesn't translate into on-field success. I'd rather fare better in the April-September season than the November-January season. While the latter can be quite important, too, it seems folks can lose perspective when "too few" moves - or even too many moves that aren't smart - happen over the winter.

Sure, it's been slow, but I agree w/ BCD80: - Many positions are rather set (or, to look at it differently, upgrading them would cost more and blow other holes in the roster, making for a lateral move at best). - 1B and the bullpen are the most realistic positions to target for moves, and other than losing out on Corey Hart, it's not exactly like other prime/realistic opportunities have gone by the boards. NOT overpaying for Ike Davis is extremely smart to say the least! - They did trade Aoki for Smith. Smith had a good year last year, and he's young enough that he should still be on the ascent, and it's too soon to know if that peak will be in the rotation or the 'pen. But he's another strong, live arm w/ some promise, which seems like a productive return for Aoki. Just because you want to make a move doesn't mean the right opportunity will be there. You can aim for any FA you want, but he has to be open to coming to you and agree on dollars/term. You can target any player on anyone else's roster, but the other team has to be willing to move him and the quality of assets requested has to be realistic (see: Mets' reported asking price of Thornburg for Ike Davis). I'd rather see the Brewers make the right moves and for more intelligent prices than moves early that leave everyone second-guessing, whether for the $$ involved or for what was given up. The result thus far has been a slow off-season, but at the very least, you can't really criticize Melvin for making obviously stupid moves -- a take some folks on seem ready to champion at a moment's notice.

Gindl's a better CF, per comments made by Roenicke & Melvin from previous ST's.

As a pitcher, it'd seem to be a relatively low-risk move. I'd still prefer getting Balfour, but it's the difference between signing a decent veteran arm vs. signing a closer. Then again, signing K-Rod or Balfour doesn't necessarily preclude also signing the other. In fact, I'd almost be willing to go to camp with the young 1B options we have (not a JF21 fan, but there are 3 other AAA-ish 1Bs, too) for a majorly upgraded bullpen. Why? I liken it more to 2011 (than 2013), when we had Axford + Hawkins + Saito, and then later added K-Rod to the mix. That made us nearly invincible after the 6th inning for nearly the entire 2nd half (post-K-Rod acquisition and Saito's return to health).

FA isn't the only way to improve the team. I'll bet not every MLB team has made a trade that's altered their 40-man roster. Melvin has made a trade from an area of strength (OF) to address an area of need (young strong arm that can start or relieve). It's also 6 more weeks before ST starts and 3 months before Opening Day. There's time to wait to make the (hopefully) right move, plus players out there who'd seem to fit the "right move" category whether by FA or trade.

Not surprising, except I thought I remember Doug Melvin saying (around the Winter Meetings?) that they probably weren't going to go back in the direction of K-Rod. I've thought all along that he's a decent option and I'm mildly surprised that they haven't signed him already. Then again, a later signing probably = a lower salary, which is probably just fine after his accepting the Brewers' arbitration offer and screwing up the payroll flexibility a couple years ago.

I keep thinking that adding just a "depth" arm doesn't look like a difference maker for the BP. I think they'd be better off making a bigger addition to the bullpen with more certain & significant impact. That's why I think of Balfour. Heck, even with the improvement of their young guys & proven guys, Baltimore's still got an uphill climb to top Boston, NY, & Tampa Bay. Signing with the Brewers isn't much of a drop in the odds, if any, than Baltimore was. And it was MIL who helped him make it back to the bigs after his injury recovery. (I'd still love to undo that Seth McClung trade even though Balfour's first few MIL outings weren't great. Why? It's because he was pitching SO well in AAA that his success over the past 5 years is hardly surprising.)

It's almost 2014 and my thoughts keep drifting in this direction, so bumping this thread seemed fitting.... The Brewers' potential Opening Day roster seems to be decent and could look appreciably better (on paper) with the right move or two (see below) and generally good health. Here's one stab at the Opening Day roster/payroll, reasons for optimism (salaries from Cot's; presumption of $500k for pre-arby guys, which isn't exact but at worst is not absurdly off), and moves I'd still hope to see: OF (5) -- starters Braun ($10M), Gomez ($7M), Davis ($.5M); reserves Schafer ($.5M), Gindl ($.5M) -- total $18.5M IF (7) -- starters Halton/Francisco ($.5m & proj. $1.5M), Gennett/Weeks ($.5M & $11M), Segura ($.5M), Ramirez ($10M actual); reserve: Bianchi ($.5M) -- total $24.5M C (2) -- Lucroy ($2M); Maldonado ($.5M) -- total $2.5M Summary - Position players (14) -- salary = $45.5M - starters mostly strong (except 1B) & obvious variables at LF & 2B; much the same core as Brewers' top NL offense from 2012 - reserves are mostly young/pre-arby; upgrading 1B should result in stronger IF bench; Weeks of course is value-less if he doesn't rebound (whether for MIL playing time or as possible trade bait) - This offense is still quite capable. The young guys still need notably positive "upward" development to occur. SP (5) -- Lohse ($11M), Gallardo ($11.25M), Estrada (proj. $3.5M), Peralta ($.5M), Thornburg ($.5M) -- total $26.75M RP (7) -- Henderson ($.5M), Kintzler ($1M), Wooten ($.5M), Gorzelanny ($2.8M), Hand/Figaro/Blazek ($.5M), Smith ($.5M), Wang ($.5M) -- total $6.3M Summary - Pitchers (12) -- salary = $33.05M - SPs are strong if they pitch up to their ability like in the 2nd half of 2013 - RPs have varying degrees of "proven-ness" but most pitched pretty well out of the BP in 2013 - There is depth on both ends of the staff, although it's mostly if not all youth (Blazek, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Figaro, Burgos, maybe even Fiers). Other comments: - Yes, I know I made a 26-man roster. I think variables/unknowns will be at least somewhat resolved before Opening Day re: 1B & 2B, which theoretically should solidify & result in improvement from today's roster. - Total salary right now is about $78.5M. That would indicate that there's room for some growth for the right player(s)/move(s). I still think the roster would be that much better with two more moves, whether these specifically or something comparable: 1. Brewers sign Grant Balfour to the same deal Baltimore reneg'ed on (2 yrs., $15M). Rationale: Stud closer, greatly improves BP depth & end-of-game security factor, Henderson still hugely valuable as 8th inning guy & Closer 1A. 2. Brewers sign Michael Young to play 1B on a one-year deal w/ $2-3M base + incentives. Rationale: 1B solved, JF21 perhaps expendable (or at least not the starter!), buys a year of AAA development time for young guys Halton/Morris/Rogers, not a bad hit to the bottom line if Young merits release based on his performance or Halton/Morris/Rogers pushing him out of the picture . . . Young also could be depth/insurance/coverage at 3B & 2B. Which results in: - $88M payroll -- not significantly higher than currently projected ceiling of $83-85M - Hugely improved IF situation, esp. if Weeks is also traded (starters: Young, Gennett, Segura, Ramirez; bench: Bianchi, Green (my hope he'd earn the corner IF/OF reserve spot; possibly JF21 if Green needs AAA playing time) & Weeks if not traded/released) - Deeper & markedly better bullpen, which I believe is very valuable b/c there's nothing more deflating than the BP consistently blowing late-game leads (see: July 2012 when NO ONE could close out a game without blowing the lead) - an eventual Weeks trade only helps the bottom line assuming they pay, at most, 3/4 of the salary or less; and if the Brewers pay all $11M to net a better return, that has a positive return, only somewhere other than the payroll; the Weeks/Billingsley trade floated elsewhere on this board (seeing Billingsley as "SP excess" in LA) would sure seem like a win/win even if Billingsley were to miss considerable time with injury b/c salaries are about the same which = sunk cost either way (ditto the thought if it's Josh Beckett) Bottom line: While nothing's certain, and while it would take most things going right-to-incredibly-well, I think a version of the 2014 Brewers like this could be pretty doggone good and have a viable shot at making the playoffs. (edited to correct Braun's salary; mis-read Cot's)

Low base & nice incentives are what about any team would put together except the "big spenders" or "hoarders," of which the Yankees are consistently one, although keep in mind that part of the reason they've not gotten every big FA on the market is that they're wary of the luxury tax threshold. What the Brewers might offer more than some of those teams is a chance to pitch A LOT if he proves healthy -- maybe even a better opportunity than most of the other teams on that list besides Houston. I'd say the odds still don't seem to favor the Brewers, but I still wish they'd make a play -- $2M or so guaranteed with the chance of a good payoff would be worth that gamble. If he pitches well, the Brewers & Santana would both reap the benefits.

He isn't any more injury prone but he is old and has had knee problems the last couple years. Like many many old players, that shouldn't be expected to get better. He sprained a knee pretty badly in spring training and tried to play through it as soon as it got to a point where he could -- NOT waiting for it to fully heal. Then he was finally mostly healthy and playing well but tweaked it again in the Gomez-Maholm-McCann fiasco right before season's end. "Knee problems" sounds like something more chronic. IIRC, he didn't have knee problems in 2012, so that was only a one year issue. In 2013 he was a total stud offensively and defensively and at least the offense was pretty much in line with his career norms, nothing out of the ordinary for him.

I'm right there with you, Fondy. I'd start by offering Figaro and Blazek -- a rubbery power arm and the guy who was a decent Cardinals prospect last year but fell back, just like Davis. That might get laughed at, but that's comparable value considering Davis' 2013 MLB performance. I'd still rather have Michael Young and wish the Brewers would simply get that done & quit dallying with Ike Davis.

I like this idea of a healthy Ramirez being a Brewer beyond this year and I grow tired of folks selling Ramirez short, saying he's injury-prone, which is not the case any more than many, many players. Ramirez has hardly been injury-plagued in his career, only missing significant time last year and 2009. And after Ramirez returned to the lineup and got his game going, he was pretty well on-track with his usual production rate. People need to remember Ramirez is a far superior player to Rickie Weeks and has only two seasons in the past 13 where he's played under 100 games (still playing in over half the season's games in both cases). If there's no capable replacement on the way and Ramirez is still healthy and productive, I have no problem paying him $14-$15M in 2015, especially if the alternative is the equivalent of the pre-Segura SS situation of 2012.

I'll second FTC's list above, 1 through 5a, with these two tweaks: 2 - Two of Nelson, Hellweg, and Thornburg take the next step and join Peralta in the opening day starting rotation, which performs season-long like it did in the 2nd half of 2013. 4 - 1B gets manned by someone who plays it like a capable 1B both offensively & defensively. Doesn't have to be an All-Star or a Gold Glove, just play respectably (average to slightly above) on defense, and produce somewhere between Lucroy's 2013 and Ramirez's career norms on offense.

There's no guarantee of a pick if you let FAs finish the last year of their contracts unless you're willing to risk a qualifying offer, and big bucks are a good part of the reason folks are looking to move on from Ramirez, Weeks, & possibly Yo & Lohse.

I'd guess Olmsted has been an expendable guy all along and, unless there was a total void of any further transactions, was, at best, highly unlikely to be on the 40-man come ST anyway.

Making room for Michael Young perhaps? Melvin has a history of signings close to Christmas. Suppan was a Christmas Eve signing (or eventual lump of coal), but I don't recall any others of note. (I do still like the Michael Young idea -- better than more from the Bianchi & Elian Herrera camp.)

Delmonico played in Class A in '13 and was underwhelming. In fact, nothing in his pro career is terribly encouraging - at least not in terms of results: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=547170

I think Michael Young could be a very positive move -- far from a "big mistake."

The Brewers end up with a hitter like him at half the contract (years and/or term) and this board yelps like crazy. Maybe that's just the result of conditioning, but while Choo is fine, he's certainly not $18M/yr good IMO. . . . . Funny thing, too, is that Gomez may well be a superior all-around player (what does Choo do notably better than Gomez besides walk?) and we've had people saying he should be traded from the moment his ink hit the contract. Choo at 32 could still be darn solid. But $18M for a 38-year-old is scary territory.

I want Hunter Morris to be everything his 2012 makes it seem he can be, but I'm too leery he'll become the next Kevin Barker (who I didn't think was as bad as he was made out to be in the short-ish stretch he got to start before they pulled the plug on him & dumped him for good).

Why are people getting all up in arms against Michael Young? The guy averages at least a hit per game played, WOULD likely take a huge pay cut at 37, and could probably fill in some injury-plagued year at another position; kind of an insurance policy. I for one, would be WAY more willing to have a clubhouse guy like Young over trading even a mediocre prospect for Ike Davis. Ditto! Plus Young has become someone who's played all over the infield including 111 games at 1B (36, 40, & 22 starts over the past 3 years) -- which is 111 more games than JF21 when the Brewers got him from ATL & planned to play him primarily at 1B. Even though errors may not be the vogue stat for fielding quality, it does say something that Young has only 5 career errors at 1B (111 games) vs. 10 for JF21 in 67 games . . . and all-position career totals of about 1 error every 7 games for JF vs. about 1 error every 12 games for Young.

Plenty of reasons to be leery of Michael Young, but I still like what he might bring by quite a lot over the Ike Davis/Mitch Moreland crowd. Part of it's that it wouldn't tempt the FO with the possibility of a long-term commitment. And if it bumps JF21 further to the back of the picture, so much the better!

Someone asked Adam McCalvy on Twitter tonight about Kevin Youkilis for 1B, to which Adam responded that he might well be a guy who's especially picky about where he goes. That said, I think the Brewers could do a whole lot worse than Youkilis for a year at 1B if he's remotely healthy. Otherwise, looking elsewhere on MLBTR's list of potentially available 1B guys (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/james-loney-signing-further-thins-first-base-market.html), names like Carp & Lind & Moreland have plenty of reasons to consider them -- and NOT consider them -- but would all have to be acquired by trade. But if the FO figures there's no way they'd go with any of the in-house options (or, as I think of him anyway, outhouse options like JF21), there is reason to give each of those guys some thought. Lind would cost about what TB is paying Loney ($7M) plus $1.5M in buyouts for '15 & '16 (total), which would make him the most expensive of those options. All that said, as others have noted, there's still good reason to make one decent FA pitching move (as illogical as it is on many levels, I'd like to see Balfour back in MIL, as I wished they'd never traded him for McClung in the 1st place) and leave 1B to the young guys, especially since Halton & Morris wouldn't be burning their last options to run 'em back & forth from AAA. And Taylor Green should have 2 options left if he were to make the 40-man roster at some point.

The 3-yr/$21M he reportedly signed for is about what I was thinking the Brewers would've had to offer.

I, too, wish Taylor Green had been given a shot. The Brewers didn't sign Ramirez to be their savior, though, but to be their proven cleanup hitter behind Braun (taking Fielder's spot in the lineup), which he did very well. Ramirez was never a chronically injured guy before -- on the contrary, quite durable and highly productive. And when he's healthy, he doesn't put up just decent numbers, he puts up very good ones. I don't see how Ramirez's contract is weighing the Brewers down right now. Who would be eager to sign with them given how much went wrong last year? Probably only the types of guys they'd have to overpay, which would basically replace Ramirez with another player who's viewed much the same way that Ramirez & Lohse are. . . . Right now, the only contract truly hurting the Brewers is that of Rickie Weeks because they're getting NOTHING for that money. Most everyone else getting paid anything is producing in ways relatively similar to the production that earned them that contract in the first place.