colbyjack

FYI Tyler Beede is a sophomore at Vanderbilt and could be a top 10 overall pick for what looks to be a loaded 2014 draft class. he was up to 96/97 last fall, and should be the Commodores Saturday (No. 2) starter this spring on a team that has legitimate national championship aspirations. And part of the reason for drafting college guys is that they develop more quickly in regard to trade value. I'm almost positive Gord Ash is on record stating this, possibly Melvin too.

And on the Brewers top prospects, be sure you read BP's take. Kevin Goldstein and now Jason Parks really do a great job reaching out to a ton of people to formulate their reports, mixing them in with first-hand observations from them and the BP staff. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19393

I'm not going to comment on Gonsalves or any of the other players mentioned in relationship to the mock drafts, but keep an eye on prep LHP Garrett Williams. I work with and know several others that believe he's the 2nd best prep LHP in this class after Rob Kaminsky. Watch for him to have a big spring, and equally big jump up draft boards (and mock drafts).

Frank Thomas is just too different of a player. Thomas played tight end at Auburn (I'm pretty sure he went there on a football scholarship before switching to baseball full-time), a sign of his overall athleticism. I think John Olerud is a better comp for Puk, who has the same refined hitting mechanics, albeit with much better natural raw power. I give you credit for campaigning for Puk as a hitter, because I do believe far too many people pass on him in conversation as a hitter due to his speed. I don't necessarily think he would be a liability defensively, as he plays 1B well and has soft hands, good instincts and obviously a very good wingspan. It's just that he can't play anywhere else, and he's not going to do his team any favors on the basepaths (and I'm not talking about stealing bases). Given his ability on the mound it would be interesting to draft him as a hitter, and if all else fails, move him to the mound to see what he can do. My gut feeling says he goes to Florida where he'll get the chance to perform both ways and give scouts 3 more years to determine where he fits best.

In BA's defense I'm pretty sure Haudricourt makes a recommendation for how the top prospects are ranked, and also supplies the reports. The BA staff has the final say on the player rankings, and I'm not even sure Haudricourt does the player reports past the top 10 (for their Prospect Handbook). As for the future lineup, keep in mind that one year they had Fielder in LF and Sexson at 1B (or vice versa). We all knew that would never happen, but it's just how they stacked things up with the players that were currently in place. In other words, it's added purely for entertainment value and I'm guessing BA would be the first ones to admit that.

Draft picks can only be traded during the season. I'm guessing you can't use them as PTBNL either since that designation has been made with the new CBA.

For the record, I'm not suggesting that Vazquez should be the No. 2 starter or that he's any kind of "magic guy," nor is this a response to Melvin's lack of movement (as I really do like the patience he displayed in making the additions he did for the bullpen). I just have always liked Vazquez during his career and think he could provide valuable depth for a team with legitimate postseason aspirations. It could allow the Brewers to be creative with the rest of their staff, possibly pushing a guy to the bullpen and/or back to AAA for added seasoning to provide mid/late season reinforcements. And if the Red Sox are perceived as contenders (one of the teams that has shown interest in Vazquez), the Brewers should be too. That said, as others have suggested, the money would have to be right, and that alone could squash the idea.

This may be the 127th time I have proposed this, but go get Javier Vazquez: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/javier-vazquez-may-return-wants-to-join-contender.html He pitched nearly 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA in 2011 with the Marlins. His only truly terrible year (at least relatively given his career) came with the Yankees the year before. 9 of the 10 years before that he threw 200+ innings, and the year he didn't he threw 198. Plus, he's 3 years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with the Braves. Not a world beater, but consistently solid and injury free, and there's enough there to believe he has enough left in the tank for a comeback season. Yes, he gives up the long ball, and of course it would have to come at the right price. And at least we wouldn't have to worry about the Yankees getting involved.

Fielder wasn't terribly slow, he never was, especially given the way he hustled his tail off. Prior to his senior year in high school, he ran a 7.17 60-yard dash at the PG National back in June of 2001: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=117246 In May of this past year, at the same point of their respective careers, Puk ran a 7.83: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=268466 That's a pretty big gap, and the difference between having first baseman speed and being just plain slow. Think of it this way, the difference between the two is the same difference as Fielder having elite (6.5) speed.

Solid writeup Austin. I do need to point out that Kris Bryant is already being talked about as a future RF. You're right, he is a good overall athlete, but he doesn't fit at third base long term (or possibly short-term). Tremendous power potential. Narwal, Sheffield may be committed to Vandy, but if the Brewers were to take him in the 1st round I'm guessing he would sign, and probably do so quickly given the money involved. He's a baseball rat, a good kid and really dedicated to the game. You're right on with Eades and his arm action, and also correct on Crawford likely being taken before the Brewers pick. If Crawford is available, he likely had a down year (or is advised by Boras). nate82, the only reason more scouts don't take Puk more seriously as a hitter/positional prospect is because he is so slow. He's not an OF, and that along with his left-handedness would make him an awkward fit at 3B. In other words, he's a 1B and a 1B only, and even at that he's a very slow 1B. You're right though, his power potential is very, very impressive, and he's a better overall hitter than Adam Dunn is. When scouts see his size and current low-90s velocity its easy to dream on him throwing in the mid-90s more consistently in the not so distant future. Another good kid. Hollon is scheduled to be at our (Perfect Game's) Indoor Showcase in early February to serve as his welcome back party. He has been shut down since last August when he tweaked his arm at the East Coast Pro Showcase. I've seen him up to 97 mph, with an absolutely electric/loose arm and a really good breaking ball as well. A co-worker of mine has dropped a comp of Matt Cain on Dustin Driver, and Ryan Boldt is a very exciting/athletic 5-tool talent. Opposite of Puk, a growing number of scouts, including those I work with, were growing more and more fond of Trey Ball as an outfielder given his speed and the leverage in his swing. Like you, I prefer him as a pitcher. After loading up on bats early last year my best is they turn their attention back to arms next June. Some of my favorite hitters that should/could be around the No. 17 pick include 1B/OF Dominic Smith, 3B/1B D.J. Peterson (who wasn't profiled by Austin above, although like Bryant doesn't project to stick at 3B) and C Reese McGuire.

Thompson's a righty, and he's not a particularly projectable righty either. He tops out at 93/94 currently, but typically sits around 88-91. He's also a Boras guy from what I've heard, and is likely to take the college route. He is a very good competitor though, and can swing the bat as well.

Allow me to double the wish for Sean Burnett. I think he alone could go a long way to significantly improving the team's bullpen for a variety of reasons.

Going with the 99 theme (which may not be very credible considering one of the Brewers best players is Japanese), I'm 99% positive Otani would be a free agent, but this is truly unprecedented. The draft is only for players in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. I've also been told that it is 99% likely he signs with the Dodgers. They have the most people that have seen him and the most resources invested into making that happen. Speaking of the draft, I'm pretty pumped for this week as I'm going to be seeing a ton of the top HS prospects at this WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, FL. I've already saw a ton of guys earlier in the summer, but let me know if you want any thoughts on any players.

I'm pretty sure Moran is Surhoff's nephew. I didn't realize before checking in on this thread that if the draft was held tomorrow the Brewers would have the 8th overall pick. While I've been following from afar, they are not the 8th worst team in baseball, so I'll take a premium, top-10 pick. That said, the Brewers can't mess it up. Next year should be a good year to get a quality college arm with plenty to choose from. If they go with a prep bat, I want Dominic Smith. Incredibly smooth hitter that reminds me a ton of Adrian Gonzalez. Reese McGuire is another one of my faves. Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows are also studs from the prep level, but at this point in time I wouldn't expect them to fall to the 8th pick. If I were the Astros I would take Frazier No. 1. My money is on the Cubs taking Appel with the 2nd pick, assuming Appel has a similar season. The Astros already passed on Appel once, and I would expect them to do so again no matter how good he is next spring.

Interesting, but how much trade value would Mark Rogers have? After the Youkilis deal is seems apparent that teams may not be able to get much due to the new rules pertaining to draft pick compensation, but even then, Rogers' history has to suppress his value, regardless of how hard he's throwing.

I think we have him ranked around the same spot, which may be an oversight, because he quietly put together a nice year. I think his slow start hurt him in the ranking process, but I know the 25-35 range is where he's expected to be taken, and the Brewers have shown interest.

It's hard to say that it's going to hurt. Teams, including the Brewers, should have drafted him higher, and now he's the favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2014 draft. It is tough to think the Brewers got close but couldn't bridge the last gap to get him in their system. Then again, Rodon's development from last year to now was pretty significant. Kind of like a Manny Parra night-and-day progression back in 2002.

Jankowski is likely to go somewhere in the 25-35 range, so no, he's not a reach. Matt Smoral could pose some signability concerns, but with extra picks the Brewers could be creative to make that happen if they wanted to. If Coulter doesn't stick behind the plate, he's a 1B, maybe LF.

I just posted a mock draft on PG's site: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7117 Jankowski, Eflin and Coulter are the picks at 27, 28 and 38.

I don't think you're giving Coulter enough credit. I think he falls under the category of someone that people haven't heard of, and therefore believe he's not worthy of a late first-round pick. I talked about this with Dennis Punzel of the Wisconsin State Journal the other day (look for his story up in the next 1-2 days), but this is a draft in which you could make a case for roughly 40-60 players to be taken among the top 30 picks. That doesn't make it a weak draft necessarily (or a strong one), but there are some good players out there that aren't household names for the first round when it comes to draftniks. And I take Coulter ahead of Trahan. Trahan has exciting tools, but hasn't been able to translate those tools into playable skills at the HS level. Coulter destroys everything. That said, I wouldn't take Brinson at 27 or 28 as noted, unless it's for a friendly deal that allows you to save a little money at one slot to spend a little more at another. He's a very good overall athlete, very similar to Dexter Fowler, but he still is pretty raw. I keep hearing that Tanner Rahier isn't likely to fall to the Brewers' pick, and Addison Russell may be in that same boat. If Gallo somehow falls you take him without blinking. CF Travis Jankowski of Stony Brook is a player the Brewers have shown interest in, so you may want to see how he does this weekend during Regional play, as many are predicting a big weekend could cement his status as someone to go in the 20-30 range.

I do think it's going to take 2-3 years for the new rules to allow the dust to settle, although by then there could be new rules in place that completely change everything players are currently facing. You bring up some very good points, as a player heading to college may realize in 3 years that the money is the same, and that teams simply aren't allotted the financial resources that they may be willing to spend, but aren't allowed to. If you look at recent history, almost every single player taken in the top 2-3 rounds signs. Yes, there are some players that sign for much higher than slot, such as Porcello, but again, the top players are going to sign. I don't think a team like the Tigers signs Porcello in that scenario, but you could see a team that has extra, early picks take a chance on someone like Porcello (such as Lucas Giolito this year) by getting creative with their other picks to leave some money to make something like that happen. I do know that a lot of scouts are stressed out right now scrambling to determine players' signability, much more so than in past years. I had a conversation with an agent 2 weeks ago in which he told me that he has more scouts calling to ask the same signability questions over and over again, much more so than in past years. From the agents' (and players') perspective, why would they let this be known more than they need to, unless it's the rare player that simply wants to begin his pro career because the only thing he thinks and dreams about is playing baseball without much thought as to how much he's going to break the bank? What you're really going to see less of is the players that break the bank past the top 2-3 rounds. No longer will you have Dillon Maples signing with the Cubs for $2.5 million, or whatever he signed for last year in the 13th or so rounds. A lot of northern players, a couple of prep pitchers from Michigan come to mind, who have early round aspirations and talent (if they were more recognized playing in a warmer state) are much more likely to head to college. Is this going to be cyclical, meaning, will it continue and will more college players be drafted early with more prep players heading to college? I think you'll see that scenario increase, but not as dramatically as some have predicted. Don't be surprised if the new rules per the CBA change sooner rather than later. I think MLB took a step in the right direction with these, but it's too restrictive.

I do believe that Russell, Rahier and Roache will be available when the Brewers pick. If Gallo is there you take him without thinking twice, his power is unreal. While I agree with HiandTight that you can never have enough pitching, in looking at the Brewers prospects a couple of nights ago, the system is painfully, and that may be putting it lightly, thin on impact bats. I don't care what argument you make for what prospect, but the organization simply doesn't have one bat currently in their system that you can look to and think, "yeah, that guy is going to make a difference at the big-league level." The team needs to correct that, and believed for a long time that you can pick up impact pitching later, the diamonds in the rough, than you can find a bat that just hasn't blossomed yet.

DHonks, we don't have any players from Horizon HS projected to be draft this year. Here are the final results from the PG staff mock draft: http://www.perfectgame.org/Draft/MockDrafts/2012-perfectgame-mockdraft.aspx Prep SS Addison Russell and Missouri State RHP Pierce Johnson were the team's top 2 picks, followed by prep LHP Hunter Virant in the sandwich round and prep RHP Mitchell Traver in round 2. A pretty solid effort for all of the team's top 10 picks from my Wisconsin co-worker and Brewers SD Ken Gardner.

Hensley is the only player that I have heard that the Brewers have specifically shown increased interest in. Addison Russell is a SS that could be a good fit for one of the Brewers first round picks. Tanner Rahier is another. Both could move to 3B down the road, with Rahier the more likely to do so, but Rahier has drawn some comps to Evan Longoria.

What do you mean by already committed to Ole Miss? Almost every top HS prospect has a college commitment, so it's not like Hensley's to Ole Miss stands out more so than anyone else. Ole Miss is a good baseball school, but not quite on the same level of Stanford, Vanderbilt and Texas when it comes to prying prep kids away from pro careers. In other words, he's not a signability risk, at least not in the first round.